Posted August 10 2006 - 05:24 PM
| Originally Posted by Gekkou |
If you don't think the PS3 will sell out on day one, then you just aren't familiar with the game market. I also don't know what you mean by it being the underdog, it is one heck of a powerful system.
Sure PS3 will sell out on Day 1, because they cannot supply sufficient units to meet the Die-hard fan demand. At the yields they're getting on Cell, they aren't going to ship significant quantity for a long time.
I also doubt PS3's power, considering it's demo's at E3 were reportedly no better than Xbox 360's. It's ability is crippled by it's difficulty in programming, topped off with a ridiculous price tag. Developers are better served working on other platforms, and it's already shown as support is fairly weak already.
I also think you overestimate the penetration a $500-600 box with a tiny handfull of games is going to get. Consoles thrive on their cost, and this is over the line. If $500-600 for a game machine was justifiable to most people, they'd already be using PC's and we wouldn't be having this conversation.
PS3 will not yield much penetration, it won't be a factor in the war. PS3 isn't going to sell in large numbers until late 2007 at best, and that's only if developers stick it out on PS3. Which is doubtfull if it sells weakly in it's first 4 quarters.
This war will be won/lost by the Studios or by Universal Players. If the studios shift to HD-DVD support as well as BR, BR's going to lose all it's ground. Especially if 45 gig HD-DVD's show up. If the support is there for HD-DVD, or if 45 gig HD-DVD's show up, the next factor is cost. BR is double HD-DVD, why pay twice as much money for the same thing as the competition?
If Universal Players show up, the war moves into the backrooms and we don't have to care.
One of those two things will come to pass at this point, Uni tech is present, Studios may choose to jump ship for HD-DVD.
But PS3 won't be a deciding factor, Sony's going to have it's hands full just trying to sell PS3's. Put simply, PS3 doesn't have a single thing worth paying $500-600 dollars for, especially just a box with 1 controller and no games. With gas prices at record highs, and many people stuck with gas guzzling SUV's and Trucks, cost is becoming increasingly important to consumers, and that price won't be acceptable to many parents when the 360 is available for half that price.
The game market has no tolerance for overly-expensive boxes with a handfull of titles, regardless of what name you put on it. Not at twice the price of your nearest competitor. Especially when the majority of the titles will also ship for said competitor's system.