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*** Official "2003 Box Office Prediction and Discussion" Thread

Discussion in 'Movies' started by Dana Fillhart, Dec 30, 2002.

  1. Dana Fillhart

    Dana Fillhart Well-Known Member

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    2003 Box Office Predictions
    Last updated 23 Mar 2003

    Hello!
    As most know, last year's thread really took a life of its own, and morphed from its original intent of guessing the big BO grossers to a weekly listing of upcoming films -- big and small -- with many forum members flexing their precognitive powers. Some guesses were quite impressive, while others (like me :b) were waaaaaaaaaay off. Well, this year I'm hoping to take the cool things from last year's thread a little step further, starting with this first post. I am going to keep a listing of all the films' totals through the year, as well as the totals as they open each week. The idea is to pool the knowledge from different internet sources to better keep on top of the almost constant changes in the biz -- as well as track our predictions -- all the while having a great, fun time doing it.
    I'm taking from a couple sources (RottenTomatoes.com and DarkHorizons.com) those films that are slated to come out each week, and, with another online source (provided by the incredible BoxOfficeMojo.com), put them together in different tables to show how well they (and all the studios) are doing. In addition to the weekly tallies, there is a table for the yearly totals, and in that table I've placed a column for those prognisticators in this thread who luckily -- er, skillfully [​IMG] -- predict the closest result of each film's final tally. I'm not entirely sure how this will go over time, but I'll also try to place in the weeklies those who've guessed the closest to each film's weekend total -- for those films that are still being tracked (by Box Office Mojo at any rate). At this point, there are no specific rules for guessing, except that it's probably a polite thing to not go back and overwrite your guesses with new totals, but instead just post a note with the revised amount. That, and make sure to post the guess before the opening date of the film. I should be putting up each week's scheduled new releases at the start of each new week, once tallies from the past weekend have been released (which is usually Monday).
    I will be placing the yearly totals in this first post (once we have some actual data to use). I will also create a new post each week as new totals are given, and I'll put the most current weekly in this first post as well for a quick reference. That way you can tell at a glance what's current, while if you want to see how things changed over time, you can float between the pages of this thread. For a while the weeklies will contain some 2002 titles, but the Yearly totals only contain 2003 releases. As mentioned above, I'll put up the new weeklies post each Monday, which will contain the updated totals from the previous weekend, as well as the upcoming scheduled new releases.
    Notes: The lists are for U.S. releases only, but this whole thread can (and should) discuss worldwide Box Office tallies as well -- just make a note if you're talking about worldwide tallies (or a specific country other than the U.S.), otherwise it'll be assumed you're talking about U.S. totals. Also, even though I would really prefer to only list wide-release U.S. films, there are many titles that come out in limited release in New York or Los Angeles, so it is most likely those will show up in the list before they're widely released. If I know the initial release date is limited, I will note it, otherwise assume it is wide release (in the U.S.). Film festival releases are unlikely to be shown in a weekly list, until their grosses are tracked by Box Office Mojo (or other reputable online tracking source). Weekend tallies go from Friday morning until Sunday evening; though there are some films that open on Wednesday, the studios usually report the dailies so it is possible to keep the tallies separate from the weekday grosses. I am not going to post tables charting daily totals; studios revise them too often to be reliable, and it'd take too much time, but many people here subscribe to Box Office Mojo (or go to their website) to get the tallies, and oftentimes members will post the individual tallies through each day of the week anyway.
    Lastly, feel free to let me know if I've missed any major release or to correct any facts or other problems, and I'll be sure to promptly update things accordingly.
    So, without further ado, here are the tables:
    NEW RELEASES are placed above previous week's releases in RED, * = 2002 release, (E) = Estimate, (L) = Limited Release

    FILMS IN THEATRES FOR THE WEEKEND OF
    21 March 2003Title
    StudioRelease Date (Week #)
    Current/max theatresWeekend Tally / Grand TotalClosest Guess Piglet's Big Movie
    Buena Vista Pictures / Disney21 Mar 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) Dreamcatcher
    Warner Bros.21 Mar 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) Boat Trip
    Artisan Entertainment21 Mar 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) View from the Top
    Miramax Films21 Mar 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) Chuen jik sat sau (Fulltime Killer)
    Palm Pictures21 Mar 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) Down and Out with the Dolls
    Indican Pictures21 Mar 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) Gaudi Afternoon
    First Look21 Mar 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) Japón (Japan)
    Vitagraph Films19 Mar 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?)
    PREVIOUS TOTALS FOR THE WEEK ENDING
    16 March 2003
    1Bringing Down the House
    Touchstone Pictures7 Mar 2003 (2)
    2,801 / 2,801$22,054,934 / $61,287,160-2Agent Cody Banks
    MGM/UA14 Mar 2003 (1)
    3,369 / 3,369$14,064,317 / $14,064,317-3The Hunted
    Paramount Pictures14 Mar 2003 (1)
    2,516 / 2,516$13,482,638 / $13,482,638-4Tears of the Sun
    Columbia Pictures7 Mar 2003 (2)
    2,973 / 2,973$8,705,853 / $30,721,673-5* Chicago
    Miramax Films27 Dec 2002 (11)
    2,600 / 2,600$7,105,479 / $124,845,340-6Old School
    Dreamworks Distribution, LLC21 Feb 2003 (4)
    2,707 / 2,742$6,670,577 / $60,775,809-7How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days
    Paramount Pictures7 Feb 2003 (6)
    2,897 / 2,923$4,685,917 / $93,724,277-8Willard
    New Line Cinema14 Mar 2003 (1)
    1,761 / 1,761$4,010,593 / $4,010,593-9Daredevil
    20th Century Fox14 Feb 2003 (5)
    2,778 / 3,471$3,030,687 / $96,033,651-10Cradle 2 the Grave
    Warner Bros.28 Feb 2003 (3)
    2,625 / 2,625$2,974,489 / $31,688,273-11The Jungle Book II
    Buena Vista Pictures / Disney14 Feb 2003 (5)
    2,553 / 2,814$2,533,740 / $43,659,830-12Shanghai Knights
    Touchstone Pictures7 Feb 2003 (6)
    1,905 / 2,755$1,548,917 / $57,240,033-13* The Pianist
    Focus Films / Miramax Films27 Sep 2002 (12)
    565 / 565$1,303,069 / $18,630,180-14* The Hours
    Paramount Pictures29 Nov 2002 (12)
    962 / 1,010$1,250,613 / $37,294,735-15* About Schmidt
    New Line Cinema13 Dec 2002 (14)
    845 / 1,236$1,093,228 / $61,630,220-16* The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
    New Line Cinema18 Dec 2002 (13)
    703 / 3,622$1,014,613 / $333,623,857-17* The Quiet American
    Miramax Films15 Nov 2002 (17)
    381 / 381$990,821 / $8,700,081-18The Life of David Gale
    Universal Pictures21 Feb 2003 (4)
    1,872 / 2,003$901,925 / $18,810,795-19The Recruit
    Miramax Films31 Jan 2003 (6)
    1,071 / 2,376$685,848 / $51,485,299-20Gods and Generals
    Warner Bros.21 Feb 2003 (4)
    1,233 / 1,533$645,309 / $12,241,468-21Final Destination 2
    New Line Cinema31 Jan 2003 (7)
    881 / 2,834$638,273 / $45,619,162-22* Gangs of New York
    Miramax Films20 Dec 2002 (13)
    378 / 2,340$495,356 / $76,240,821-23Kangaroo Jack
    Warner Bros.17 Jan 2003 (9)
    1,110 / 2,848$352,060 / $65,478,341-24* Adaptation.
    Columbia Pictures6 Dec 2002 (15)
    234 / 672$328,040 / $21,101,763-25* The Lion King (IMAX)
    Buena Vista Pictures / Disney27 Dec 2002 (12)
    66 / 66$311,937 / $14,291,295-26Cidade de Deus (City of God)
    Miramax Films17 Jan 2003 (9)
    67 / 67$285,061 / $2,407,724-27* Catch Me If You Can
    Dreamworks Distribution, LLC25 Dec 2002 (12)
    295 / 3,225$255,749 / $162,856,831-28* Hable con Ella (Talk to Her)
    Sony Pictures Classics22 Nov 2002 (17)
    146 / 156$251,689 / $7,612,553-29Deliver Us from Eva
    Focus Films / Miramax Films7 Feb 2003 (6)
    365 / 1,139$234,329 / $17,160,784-30* Frida
    Focus Films / Miramax Films25 Oct 2002 (20)
    163 / 794$233,326 / $24,828,865-
    ...


    2003 Films
    Year Totals#Title
    StudioRelease Date
    Initial/max theatresYear TotalClosest Guess1Daredevil
    20th Century Fox14 Feb 2003
    2,056 / 3,471$96,033,651 2How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days
    Paramount Pictures7 Feb 2003
    2,430 / 2,923$93,724,277 3Kangaroo Jack
    Warner Bros.17 Jan 2003
    615 / 2,848$65,478,341 4Bringing Down the House
    Touchstone Pictures7 Mar 2003
    2,801 / 2,801$61,287,160 5Old School
    Dreamworks Distribution, LLC21 Feb 2003
    2,452 / 2,742$60,775,809 6Shanghai Knights
    Touchstone Pictures7 Feb 2003
    1,316 / 2,755$57,240,033 7Just Married
    20th Century Fox10 Jan 2003
    2,766 / 2,766$55,286,282 8The Recruit
    Miramax Films31 Jan 2003
    640 / 2,376$51,485,299 9Final Destination 2
    New Line Cinema31 Jan 2003
    616 / 2,834$45,619,162 10The Jungle Book II
    Buena Vista Pictures / Disney14 Feb 2003
    2,064 / 2,814$43,659,830 11National Security
    Columbia Pictures17 Jan 2003
    2,729 / 2,729$35,855,967 12Darkness Falls
    Columbia Pictures24 Jan 2003
    2,837 / 2,837$32,032,215 13Cradle 2 the Grave
    Warner Bros.28 Feb 2003
    2,150 / 2,625$31,688,273 14Tears of the Sun
    Columbia Pictures7 Mar 2003
    2,973 / 2,973$30,721,673 15Biker Boyz
    Dreamworks Distribution, LLC31 Jan 2003
    1,769 / 1,769$21,559,289 16The Life of David Gale
    Universal Pictures21 Feb 2003
    893 / 2,003$18,810,795 17Deliver Us from Eva
    Focus Films / Miramax Films7 Feb 2003
    184 / 1,139$17,160,784 18A Guy Thing
    MGM/UA17 Jan 2003
    2,515 / 2,520$15,518,378 19Agent Cody Banks
    MGM/UA14 Mar 2003
    3,369 / 3,369$14,064,317 20The Hunted
    Paramount Pictures14 Mar 2003
    2,516 / 2,516$13,482,638 21Gods and Generals
    Warner Bros.21 Feb 2003
    706 / 1,533$12,241,468 22Dark Blue
    MGM/UA21 Feb 2003
    2,176 / 2,176$9,059,588 23Willard
    New Line Cinema14 Mar 2003
    1,761 / 1,761$4,010,593 24The Guru
    Universal Pictures31 Jan 2003
    62 / 98$2,867,996 25Cidade de Deus (City of God)
    Miramax Films17 Jan 2003
    97 / 67$2,407,724 26The R.M.
    Halestorm Entertainment31 Jan 2003
    15 / 21$576,909 27Poolhall Junkies
    Samuel Goldwyn Films28 Feb 2003
    179 / 179$554,711 28Lost in La Muncha
    IFC Films31 Jan 2003
    8 / 20$529,153 29Lockdown
    Palm Pictures14 Feb 2003
    81 / 81$449,482 30 À la folie... pas du tout (He Loves Me, He Loves Me Not)
    Samuel Goldwyn Films14 Feb 2003
    13 / 16$435,718 31Laurel Canyon
    Sony Pictures Classics7 Mar 2003
    10 / 19$433,847 32Irréversible (Irreversible)
    Lions Gate Films7 Mar 2003
    7 / 26$208,233 33The Safety of Objects
    IFC Films7 Mar 2003
    32 / 32$195,995 34Bend It Like Beckham
    Fox Searchlight Pictures12 Mar 2003
    6 / 6$191,791 35Blind Spot: Hitler's Secretary
    Sony Pictures Classics24 Jan 2003
    1 / 12$182,146 36Amandla! A Revolution in Four-Part Harmony
    Artisan Entertainment14 Feb 2003
    1 / 12$170,716 37Gerry
    ThinkFilm14 Feb 2003
    2 / 13$162,160 38Divine Intervention
    Avatar Films17 Jan 2003
    1 / 6$142,847 39Super Sucker
    Purple Rose Films24 Jan 2003
    115 / 115$137,628 40Nowhere in Africa
    Zeitgeist Films7 Mar 2003
    2 / 11$120,095 41Chaos
    Kino International29 Jan 2003
    3 / 5$114,183 42Amen
    Kino International24 Jan 2003
    5 / 8$113,173 43Open Hearts
    Newmarket Capital Group21 Feb 2003
    2 / 13$84,869 44Till Human Voices Wake Us
    Paramount Classics21 Feb 2003
    5 / 11$66,322 45Lawless Heart
    First Look21 Feb 2003
    1 / 7$55,104 46The Son
    New Yorker Films10 Jan 2003
    2 / 3$41,144 47Stone Reader
    Jet Films14 Feb 2003
    1 / 3$31,088 48P.S. Your Cat Is Dead!
    TLA Releasing17 Jan 2003
    5 / 7$27,823 49Ten
    Zeitgeist Films5 Mar 2003
    1 / 1$27,787 50Chihwaseon
    Kino International14 Feb 2003
    3 / 3$21,202 51Bolivia
    Cinema Tropical26 Feb 2003
    1 / 1$19,409 52Spun
    Newmarket Capital Group14 Mar 2003
    1 / 1$15,160 53The Slaughter Rule
    Cowboy Booking International10 Jan 2003
    2 / 3$11,716 54Under the Skin of the Sky
    Magnolia Pictures14 Mar 2003
    2 / 2$7,412 55In the Mirror of Maya Deren
    Zeitgeist Films24 Jan 2003
    1 / 2$6,015 56A Family Affair
    Small Planet21 Feb 2003
    2 / 2$5,598 57L'Chayim, Comrade Stalin
    Cinema Guild31 Jan 2003
    1 / 1$3,480 58Ordinary Sinner
    Jour de Fete Films14 Feb 2003
    1 / 1$3,072
     
  2. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    This thread is now designated the Official 2003 Box Office Prediction and Discussion Thread. The thread will be maintain thoughout 2003, as the thread to discussed box office predictions.
    Crawdaddy
     
  3. Robin Warren

    Robin Warren Well-Known Member

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    Interested to hear what you all think about Daredevil as there is not a lot of buzz on this one and the trailers look kinda mediocre at best. I predict a tad under $80 million for it.
     
  4. Sean Cullen

    Sean Cullen Active Member

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    My predictions (so far):

    Shanghai Knights...65 million
    Daredevil...125 million
    The Core...45 million
    Dreamcatcher...70 million
    X2 (X-Men 2)...160 million
    The Matrix: Reloaded...220 million
    Finding Nemo...140 million
    Freddy vs. Jason...40 million
    The Hulk...150 million
    Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle...90 million
    Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines...200 million
    Phone Booth...50 million
    The Matrix: Revolutions...200 million
    The Cat in the Hat...100 million
    Return of the King...350 million
    Pirates of the Caribbean...90 million
     
  5. Iain Jackson

    Iain Jackson Well-Known Member

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    I'll add more predictions soon but my first few are as follows:
    Daredevil: $120m - there isn't much hype about this, but I think it'll still open reasonably and make its way past $100m.
    X2: $175m - this should do better than the first X-Men film, but not massively better.
    The Matrix Reloaded: $265m - this should be popular enough to break the records for highest R-rated opening and final gross, but $300m I think would be too much to hope for.
    The Hulk: $230m - many are expecting a repeat of Spider-Man's success, but I just haven't noticed the same level of anticipation.
    Terminator 3: $240m - this depends on the rating (hopefully they stick to an R, but with the huge budget I could see that changing...) and the quality of the film. This film is either going to be brilliant or awful. The trailer looks good, but it's still to early to tell. Either way it will have a VERY strong opening.
    The Matrix Revolutions: $225m - this will lose some of the business that Reloaded saw but should still have a very strong performance.
    Return of the King: $305m - obviously TTT is going to beat FOTR, but I don't see ROTK's gross going up again next year.
    The Fast and the Furious 2: $100m - the lack of Vin Diesel is going to hurt this film badly. It'll probably open strongly and then limp it's way to the $100m mark...
    I'll be back with some more predictions later...
     
  6. Adam_S

    Adam_S Well-Known Member

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    Shanghai Knights - 80
    Daredevil - 155
    The Core - 30
    Dreamcatcher - 90
    X2 (X-Men 2) - 215
    The Matrix: Reloaded - 260
    Finding Nemo - 200
    Freddy vs. Jason - 18
    The Hulk - 170
    Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle - 100
    Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines - 135
    The Matrix: Revolutions - 200 (really hard to call this one, but I think 200 is a safe bet)
    The Cat in the Hat - 200
    Return of the King - 340
    Pirates of the Caribbean. - 60

    I'm am very deliberately underbidding on almost all of these. Matrix Reloaded: I expect to make that almost as a minimum, obviously it will shatter Hannibal and T2's respective Box office records, Revolutions is far far too difficult to call, to many factors to forsee its preformance right now. I think of TCITH and FN, FN will be the top family movie of the year. Daredevil and Hulk are hard to call, neither will pull a Spiderman in my opinion, but I think Hulk will do better because of the summer (BUT there is a strong possibility of Daredevil slaughtering the box office by having no competition whatsoever). Terminator will open huge drop off even larger (I predict a 65% minimum drop off second weekend and closer to 75% drop), and it may not equal it's 80-90 million opening in the entirety of its theatrical run.
    Xmen2 will do extremely well, but its total boxoffice cum will ultimately depend on the quality of the film, if it is as good and crowd pleasing as Spiderman I can see this push 200 million, I think it will probably do as well as the first xmen.
    Charlies Angels I see underpreforming rather badly, but its hard to tell since the hype machine hasn't kicked in for that film yet, but I don't see the film preforming as well, not against 'real' guy movies like T3, Hulk, X2, and Matrix.
    Shanghai knights is the other sequel that will underpreform.

    ROTK I expect to be the highest grossing film to be released in 2003. considering how positive the reaction to TTT is I think there will be huge crowds for this one, in fact it will probably pull in several 'trainwreck' crowd that are there to see what all the fuss is about with the triology. The audience for this series, I think is continuing to build more and more between each film. I think that the 340 I predicted is somewhat conservative actually, I may adjust it upward sometime in the future. I do expect it to surpass TTT total gross.


    sit back and watch adam be even more wrong this year than last year.

    Adam
     
  7. Dana Fillhart

    Dana Fillhart Well-Known Member

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    Films for the weekend starting 03 Jan 2003, and tallies for the weekend ending 29 Dec 2002:

    NEW RELEASES are placed above previous week's releases in RED, * = 2002 release, (E) = Estimate, (L) = Limited Release
    FILMS IN THEATRES FOR THE WEEKEND OF
    03 Jan 2003
    Title
    (Studio)Release Date (Week #)
    Current/max theatresWeekend Tally
    (Grand Total)Closest Guess* Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
    (Miramax Films)31 Dec 2002 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?)* Left Behind II: Tribulation Force
    (Cloud Ten Pictures)31 Dec 2002 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?)* Love Liza
    (Sony Picture Classics)30 Dec 2002 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?)
    PREVIOUS TOTALS FOR THE WEEK ENDING
    29 Dec 2002
    01* The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
    (New Line Cinema)18 Dec 2002 (2)
    3,622/3,622$48,875,549
    ($200,058,231)-02* Catch Me If You Can
    (Dreamworks Distribution, LLC)25 Dec 2002 (1)
    3,156/3,156$30,082,000
    ($48,680,000)-03* Two Weeks Notice
    (Warner Bros.)20 Dec 2002 (2)
    2,755/2,755$15,518,420
    ($43,044,430)-04* Maid in Manhattan
    (Columbia Pictures)13 Dec 2002 (3)
    2,938/2,938$12,524,396
    ($56,950,454)-05* Gangs of New York
    (Miramax Films)20 Dec 2002 (2)
    2,190/2,190$10,948,843
    ($29,873,147)-06* Drumline
    (20th Century Fox)13 Dec 2002 (3)
    1,669/1,837$8,108,083
    ($36,619,270)-07* The Wild Thornberris Movie
    (Paramount Pictures)20 Dec 2002 (2)
    3,012/3,012$7,364,432
    ($18,418,284)-08* Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
    (Warner Bros.)15 Nov 2002 (7)
    2,505/3,682$6,474,267
    ($240,307,533)-09* The Hot Chick
    (Touchstone Pictures)13 Dec 2002 (3)
    2,246/2,246$4,813,878
    ($22,201,384)-10* Die Another Day
    (MGM/UA)22 Nov 2002 (6)
    1,875/3,314$4,365,536
    ($146,699,881)-11* Star Trek: Nemesis
    (Paramount Pictures)13 Dec 2002 (3)
    2,642/2,711$4,054,107
    ($33,846,500)-12* My Big Fat Greek Wedding
    (IFC Films)19 Apr 2002 (37)
    951/2,016$2,760,697
    ($222,517,469)-13* Chicago
    (Miramax Films)27 Dec 2002 (1)
    77/77$2,074,929
    ($2,074,929)-14* The Santa Clause 2
    (Buena Vista Pictures / Disney)1 Nov 2002 (9)
    1,511/3,352$2,070,255
    ($135,459,771)-15* Analyze That
    (Warner Bros.)6 Dec 2002 (4)
    1,611/2,635$2,068,396
    ($27,862,354)-16* The Lion King (IMAX)
    (Buena Vista Pictures / Disney)27 Dec 2002 (1)
    66/66$1,825,849
    ($2,789,969)-17* Antwone Fisher
    (Fox Searchlight Pictures)19 Dec 2002 (2)
    15/191$1,801,384
    ($3,001,346)-18* Treasure Planet
    (Buena Vista Pictures / Disney)27 Nov 2002 (5)
    1,414/3,227$1,549,980
    ($32,849,870)-19* Pinocchio (2002)
    (Miramax Films)25 Dec 2002 (1)
    1,195/1,195$1,151,463
    ($1,802,746)-20* Empire
    (Arenas Entertainment / Universal Studios)6 Dec 2002 (4)
    496/869$1,066,370
    ($15,170,025)-21* Adaptation
    (Columbia Pictures)6 Dec 2002 (4)
    109/109$1,033,875
    ($4,074,984)-22* About Schmidt
    (New Line Cinema)13 Dec 2002 (3)
    34/34$845,041
    ($2,572,811)-23* Far From Heaven
    (IFC Films)8 Nov 2002 (8)
    230/286$646,897
    ($10,048,405)-24* Frida
    (Focus Films / Miramax Films)25 Oct 2002 (10)
    283/794$551,484
    ($20,305,922)-25* Seraphin: un homme et son péché
    (Alliance)29 Nov 2002 (5)
    89/123$492,874
    ($4,099,617)-26* Rabbit-Proof Fence
    (Miramax Films)27 Nov 2002 (5)
    84/84$434,362
    ($985,641)-27* Talk to Her
    (Sony Pictures Classics)22 Nov 2002 (6)
    59/59$429,634
    ($1,338,550)-28* Bowling for Columbine
    (MGM/UA)11 Oct 2002 (12)
    175/248$417,215
    ($15,203,743)-29* Sweet Home Alabama
    (Touchstone Pictures)27 Sep 2002 (14)
    326/3,293$401,304
    ($125,415,296)-30* 8 Mile
    (Universal Pictures)8 Nov 2002 (8)
    321/2,585$346,620
    ($114,707,095)-
    The list continues at Box Office Mojo.
     
  8. Iain Jackson

    Iain Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Wow, cool tables! This is becoming very professional...
    Anyway, I have another few predictions to make:
    Tomb Raider 2: $105m - this is tricky, as the first film performed well but was regarded as being a little bit rubbish. I haven't heard too much hype, but you never know, it could be superior to the original in terms of quality and box office gross. My official prediction is for it to just pass $100m, but it could easily be well under or over that...
    Charlie's Angels 2: $90m - I've heard very little hype about this, and I just don't see it performing as well as the first one. However, this is in the same situation as Tomb Raider 2, and therefore could quite possibly do a lot better than this...
    Finding Nemo: $180m - it's Pixar, so it should automatically do big numbers, but I don't see this being as big as Monster's Inc. or Toy Story (famous last words...)
    The Core: $40m - the plot sounds ridiculous, and it hasn't got a particularly well-known cast (Hilary Swank may be an Oscar-winning actress but she's yet to appear in any huge hits). This one is going to flop...
    The Cat in the Hat: $210m - If The Grinch could pull in huge numbers, I'm sure this can too...
    I'm sure there are several other potential blockbusters waiting to be released this year, but I'm going to have to do some more research to find them all...
     
  9. JohnE

    JohnE Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, very nice work Dana! Hope this thread is as much fun to follow as the one from last year.[​IMG]
     
  10. Alex Spindler

    Alex Spindler Well-Known Member

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    Good work Dana.
    Prefacing this by my total lack of forecasting ability, intuition, basic grasp of human nature, or good taste, I predict the following:
    A Man Apart - Looks a bit by the numbers, but I think Vin still has some credibility to burn - $65M (Totally wrong, $40 million too high)
    Bad Boys 2 - Huge reception every time I've seen it on screen - $200M (Too high by about $60M)
    Bruce Almighty - An excellent teaser that is really getting good responses - $160M (Way low, gonna be low by about $100M)
    Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle - Liked the first one, but won't be as popular - $75M (Low by $25M as this limped past the 100 mark)
    Daredevil - Trailer reception has been lukewarm. This just isn't the hot property they're hoping for - $110M (Pretty close, $8 million too high)
    Dreamcatcher - Looks very solid and has a great cast - $100M (Totally wrong, $66 million too high)
    Final Destination 2 - A was a big fan of the original, as are many other video converts, so I think this will perform repectably - $75M (Pretty wrong, $30 million too high)
    Finding Nemo - Looks weaker than their other efforts. I hope I'm wrong - $85M (Unbelieveably wrong, Probably $220 million too low)
    Freddy vs. Jason - $40M (Off by double my prediction, or about $40M)
    Phone Booth - Missed it's chance - $35M (Close, $10 million too low)
    Pirates of the Caribbean - They had better have something special, because this looks like a real dud to me. - $75M (Wrong in so many ways. Good movie, and over $130 off on my prediction)
    Return of the King - Thinking this is going to match TT, unless they have a killer ad campaign that really hooks in the newer viewers (who have 6 hours of catching up to do) - $330 million (Out of the park homerun, and my prediction will be quite on the low side)
    Shanghai Knights - This will ride closer to Rush Hour than I Spy - $80M (Not too bad, $20 million too high)
    Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines - Looks to have suffered by not having JC involved. Still, it is a new Terminator - $195M (Oops, about $50M too high)
    The Core - Thinking Reign of Fire numbers. $35M (Close, $4 million too high)
    The Hulk - Depending on how they use it, this could be huge - $185M (Prob $50 million too high)
    The Matrix: Reloaded - A huge video audience will march to see one of them on the big screen - $250M (Not too bad, Probably $40 million too low)
    The Matrix: Revolutions - Guaranteed to match the sequel, unless they really fumble the ball - $240M (And they did fumble, IMO, and the result looks closer to $140M).
    X2 (X-Men 2) - Very solid and the trailer is good as well - $150M (Glad I was wrong, $60 million too low)
    Holding on some others until I see a bit more about them. Looking over my list, I can see a ton of >$100s, so I'm probably wrong.
    * Edit : Checked my (lack of) accuracy *
     
  11. Larry Sutliff

    Larry Sutliff Well-Known Member

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    Here are my predictions:
    DAREDEVIL-125 Million
    XMEN 2-150 Million
    THE MATRIX:RELOADED-210 Million
    THE HULK-250 Million
    TERMINATOR 3-180 Million
    CHARLIES ANGELS:FULL THROTTLE-95 Million
    RETURN OF THE KING-375 Million
     
  12. Travis_S

    Travis_S Well-Known Member

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    X-Men 2 $175M
    The Matrix: Reloaded $275M
    The Hulk $225M
    Terminator 3 $150M
    The Matrix: Revolutions $250M
    Lord of the Rings: Return of the King $330
     
  13. Nick Sievers

    Nick Sievers Well-Known Member

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    Bad Boys 2 - $170m
    Daredevil - $95m
    Finding Nemo - $160m
    The Hulk $130m
    The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - $310m
    The Matrix: Reloaded $250m
    The Matrix: Revolutions $225m (Really depends on the quality of Reloaded)
    Terminator 3 $170m
    X-Men 2 - $160m
     
  14. CoreyII

    CoreyII Well-Known Member

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    Im not going to get into all of 2003's releases because I don't have the time and I honestly don't know all of the films that are coming out this year. But I will most humbly give my predictions for the major releases of 2003.

    Let's start with the most anticipated movie of the year:

    The Matrix Reloaded and The Matrix Revolutions - Simply put, 800 pound gorilla, both films. To quote the cover of Newsweek magazine "2003, the year of the Matrix." Iain Jackson called it very close to the mark, these movies will be the highest grossing R-rated films in history.
    As a matter of fact I can see Reloaded lingering into the November time frame just before Revolutions opens or I could see the film being rereleased just before the third films opening. As of right now the only competition I can see for Revolutions is a couple of hobbits who had better get their asses to Mordor and destroy that nasty piece of jewelery.

    Reloaded - $275 - $300 million possibly more
    Revolutions - $275 - $300 million possibly more or a little less. Depends on the audience reaction to Reloaded.


    Daredevil - Personally I would not have had Affleck play one of Marvel's most beloved characters but I'd rather have him playing Daredevil than the Bat-Man whom he was rumored to play at one point.

    Speaking of the Dark Knight, if Daredevil is a hit (which Im quite sure it will be) than I could honestly see Warner Bros. cobbling together a mediocre script and rushing to get another Bat-Man film on the screen.
    That would be just like Warner's to try and cash in on the Daredevil fame. Who knows, if Daredevil is done really well, maybe Warner Bros. will learn how to do a Bat-Man film properly.

    Personally having collected comic books since 1984 I've always seen Daredevil as the poor man's Bat-Man. Daredevil will more than likely be Affleck's biggest hit to date even outgrossing Armageddon.

    $150-$200 million, possibly more.


    Shanghai Knights - I believe this film is opening around the same time that Daredevil is opening . So, because both films are action oriented with a strong emphasis on martial arts, they both should compliment each other and do very well.

    I know Shanghai Noon didn't have very strong box office returns back in the summer of 2000, but the film was well liked by critics and those who actually went to see it in the theaters. Besides I think once the movie came out on DVD it found more fans thus prompting the studios to make a sequel. The Shanghai films could actually turn out to be the Lethal Weapons of the 21st century, don't count this movie out. Plus I've always felt that Chan and Wilson is a better team than Chan and Tucker.

    $75 - $150 million


    The Hulk - This movie is still up in the air, if Ang Lee approaches this film with the same love and reverence that Raimi approached Spider-Man with, you could have the only movie that will rival the Matrix Reloaded.

    The american audience will have to ready to let go of the old Lou Ferrigno/Bill Bixby t.v. show and embrace the new CGI Hulk. If nothing else I expect the creature to look fantastic, afterall Dennis Muren and the gang at ILM are creating the effects. The Hulk maybe the coolest CGI creation since Gollum.

    $200 - $300 million, possibly more.



    X-Men 2 - The trailer right before the Two Towers looks very good . Its opening about two weeks before the Matrix Reloaded, so more than likely it will be the first big summer movie. Plus don't rule out the dedication and loyalty of X-Men fans.

    $200 -$300 million, possibly more



    I gotta go they're about to shut down the computers.
     
  15. CoreyII

    CoreyII Well-Known Member

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    Terminator 3 - this film scares me, especially if it goes to a PG-13 rating. If its good well then we are all lucky, if not then the Terminator may have to accept the fact that the Matrix is the new kid on the block as far as futuristic action films goes.

    If its good $200 - $250 million
    If its bad $100 - $150 million.
     
  16. CoreyII

    CoreyII Well-Known Member

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    Return of the King - with the Two Towers doing really well this film will definitely make money. As I mentioned earlier Return of the King and The Matrix Revolutions should be the two titans of the Holiday season.

    $200 - $300 million possibly more
     
  17. Joe Woj

    Joe Woj Well-Known Member

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    Return of the King will surpass the $400 million mark.

    You can scribe that into stone.
     
  18. Dana Fillhart

    Dana Fillhart Well-Known Member

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    I've updated the tables to include the top 30 for the week ending 29 Dec 2002.
    Some interesting notes:
    * Greek Wedding continues to impress, taking in close to $3M. That movie really gives new meaning to the term LEGS.
    * The Two Towers just eeked by $200M. How convenient [​IMG]
    * The Lion King (IMAX) makes an impressive debut, with only 66 screens it is averaging over $27K per screen.
    * About Schmidt did very well on its limited opening of 34 screens, averaging ~$25K per.
    * OK, Disney, it really is time to pull Sweet Home Alabama...less than 10% of its original screens, barely hanging in there...time to put out that DVD so I can finally watch and review it [​IMG]
     
  19. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Well-Known Member

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    Hmmmm. A bit early to be predicting the big hits of the year, isn't it? At least last year we waited until April when there was some semblance of a summer release schedule. [​IMG]
    I don't know as I'm ready to make full-on predictions yet, but a couple of observations are ready to go:
    • At the moment, like many of you, I don't see anything to challenge "Return of the King" as the BO champ of 2003. Glad to see so many this year are realizing the potential of this trilogy after many made very conservative predictions about TTT last year. [​IMG] I think it could approach $400M, depending on the length of the film. If it does exceed 3 hours, some mainstream moviegoers may be reluctant to sit still that long.
    • One big hit I haven't seen mentioned yet may be the new Jim Carrey film, "Bruce Almighty." Looks to be Carrey back in full-on comedy mode. Possibly $200M in the making if it's truly a "Carrey comedy" in the tradition of "Liar Liar."
    • I don't see "Daredevil" as being that big. The trailer isn't that great and while I've never heard of the character, I can't picture Ben Affleck as a superhero (any superhero). I'd put in in the "Blade/Blade II" tier, about $80M.
     
  20. TerryRL

    TerryRL Well-Known Member

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    My various predictions...

    JANUARY
    "National Security" $65 million
    "Biker Boyz" $55 million
    "Final Destination 2" $50 million
    "Just Married" $40 million

    FEBRUARY
    "Daredevil" $185 million
    "Shanghai Knights" $70 million'
    "The Hunted" $50 million
    "The Jungle Book 2" $40 million

    MARCH
    "The Core" $90 million
    "Duplex" $75 million
    "Tears of the Sun" $65 million
    "Phone Booth" $60 million
    "Agent Cody Banks" $50 million
    "Boat Trip" $45 million
    "Dreamcatcher" $35 million


    APRIL
    "Anger Management" $120 million
    "A Man Apart" $85 million
    "Basic" $80 million
    "Timeline" $70 million
    "Bulletproof Monk" $40 million
    "Ripley's Game" $30 million

    MAY
    "The Matrix Reloaded" $275 million
    "X2" $225 million
    "Finding Nemo" $180 million
    "Bruce Almighty" $120 million
    "Daddy Day Care" $70 million
    "The Wedding Party" $65 million

    JUNE
    "The Hulk" $350 million
    "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World" $160 million
    "Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle" $150 million
    "2 Fast 2 Furious" $90 million
    "Freddy vs. Jason" $75 million

    JULY
    "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines" $220 million
    "Bad Boys 2" $170 million
    "Pirates of the Caribbean" $155 million
    "The League of Extraordinary Gentelmen" $125 million
    "Lara Croft: Tomb Raider- The Cradle of Life" $110 million
    "Spy Kids 3" $85 million
    "When Harry Met Lloyd: Dumb and Dumberer" $85 million
    "The Exorcist: The Beginning" $60 million

    AUGUST
    "American Wedding" (aka "American Pie 3") $150 million
    "S.W.A.T." $130 million
    "Mindhunters" $70 million
    "Like Hell: Jeepers Creepers 2" $40 million

    SEPTEMBER
    "Helldorado" $85 million
    "Blackout" $75 million

    OCTOBER
    "Kill Bill" $115 million
    "Intolerable Cruelty" $85 million
    "The Texas Chainsaw Massacre" $60 million
    "Freaky Friday" $60 million
    "The Whole Ten Yards" $50 million

    NOVEMBER
    "The Matrix Revolutions" $260 million
    "Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat" $250 million
    "Looney Tunes: Back in Action" $75 million

    DECEMBER
    "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $375 million
    "The Last Samurai" $200 million
    "The Alamo" $180 million

    BIGGEST INTERNATIONAL HITS
    "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"
    "The Hulk"
    "The Matrix Revolutions"
    "The Matrix Reloaded"
    "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines"

    BIGGEST OPENING WEEKENDS
    "The Hulk"
    "X2"
    "The Matrix Reloaded"
    "The Matrix Revolutions"
    "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"
     

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