*** Official "2003 Box Office Prediction and Discussion" Thread

Discussion in 'Movies' started by Dana Fillhart, Dec 30, 2002.

  1. Dana Fillhart

    Dana Fillhart Supporting Actor

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    FYI...
    I got an email earlier today from Box Office Mojo -- looks like they're going forward with a two-tiered access system (a la IMDB), where only some of their material will be available for free.
    I'm hoping I can do the $62/yr subscription, but I won't be doing that for a couple months at least (I just got re-employed after 3 months of unemployment...gotta catch up on those bills! [​IMG])
    Any case, there are plenty of sources available, and BOM still will provide the basic lists for free, which is pretty much what we use here. Still, I'm hoping for no interruption of information as the weeks progress.
     
  2. Dana Fillhart

    Dana Fillhart Supporting Actor

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    FILMS IN THEATRES FOR THE WEEKEND OF
    17 Jan 2003Title
    (Studio)Release Date (Week #)
    Current/max theatresWeekend Tally / Grand TotalClosest Guess Kangaroo Jack
    Warner Bros.10 Jan 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) * Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
    Miramax Films31 Dec 2002 (2)
    ?/?(?)(?) P.S. Your Cat Is Dead!
    TLA Releasing17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?) City of God
    Miramax Films17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?) National Security
    Columbia Pictures17 Jan 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) A Guy Thing
    MGM/UA17 Jan 2003 (0)
    ?/?(?)(?) Big Shot's Funeral
    Columbia Pictures17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?) Kira's Reason
    First Run Features17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?) Divine Intervention
    Avatar Films17 Jan 2003 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?) Close, Closed, Closure
    First Run Features / Icarus Films15 Jan 2003 (0, L)
    ?/?(?)(?)1Just Married
    20th Century Fox10 Jan 2003 (1)
    2,766 / 2,766$17,548,993 / $17,548,993-2* The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
    New Line Cinema18 Dec 2002 (4)
    3,477 / 3,622$14,755,406 / $283,421,517-3* Catch Me If You Can
    Dreamworks Distribution, LLC25 Dec 2002 (3)
    3,225 / 3,225$14,630,444 / $119,370,261-4* Two Weeks Notice
    Warner Bros.20 Dec 2002 (4)
    2,755 / 2,755$6,833,423 / $78,993,281-5* About Schmidt
    New Line Cinema13 Dec 2002 (5)
    865 / 865$6,403,691 / $21,957,264-6* Chicago
    Miramax Films27 Dec 2002 (3)
    362 / 362$5,690,875 / $17,171,239-7* Maid in Manhattan
    Columbia Pictures13 Dec 2002 (5)
    2,926 / 3,050$5,144,633 / $83,850,874-8* Gangs of New York
    Miramax Films20 Dec 2002 (4)
    2,340 / 2,340$4,829,938 / $54,925,876-9* Antwone Fisher
    Fox Searchlight Pictures19 Dec 2002 (4)
    1,007 / 1,007$3,783,122 / $10,434,944-10* The Wild Thornberrys Movie
    Paramount Pictures20 Dec 2002 (4)
    2,608 / 3,012$2,844,770 / $35,165,937-11* 25th Hour
    Touchstone Pictures19 Dec 2002 (4)
    490 / 490$2,832,622 / $3,456,790-12* Narc
    Paramount Pictures20 Dec 2002 (4)
    822 / 822$2,825,807 / $3,175,704-13* Drumline
    20th Century Fox13 Dec 2002 (5)
    1,534 / 1,837$2,803,256 / $51,359,523-14* Adaptation.
    Columbia Pictures6 Dec 2002 (6)
    560 / 560$2,636,924 / $9,187,001-15* Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
    Warner Bros.15 Nov 2002 (9)
    1,550 / 3,682$2,408,476 / $255,449,301-16* My Big Fat Greek Wedding
    IFC Films19 Apr 2002 (39)
    1,212 / 2,016$2,102,547 / $230,876,712-17* The Hot Chick
    Touchstone Pictures13 Dec 2002 (5)
    1,601 / 2,246$1,718,807 / $32,543,830-18* Die Another Day
    MGM/UA22 Nov 2002 (8)
    1,180 / 3,314$1,489,564 / $156,156,363-19* Star Trek: Nemesis
    Paramount Pictures13 Dec 2002 (5)
    1,777 / 2,711$1,038,702 / $41,614,360-20* The Pianist
    Focus Films / Miramax Films27 Sep 2002 (3)
    161 / 161$1,019,754 / $2,414,040-21* The Lion King (IMAX)
    Buena Vista Pictures / Disney27 Dec 2002 (3)
    66 / 66$930,921 / $7,207,036-22* The Hours
    Paramount Pictures29 Nov 2002 (3)
    45 / 45$907,621 / $2,196,461-23* Treasure Planet
    Buena Vista Pictures / Disney27 Nov 2002 (7)
    759 / 3,227$544,843 / $36,560,387-24* Far from Heaven
    IFC Films8 Nov 2002 (10)
    291 / 291$498,551 / $11,971,502-25* Habla con Ella (Talk to Her)
    Sony Pictures Classics22 Nov 2002 (8)
    65 / 65$383,249 / $2,851,514-26* Frida
    Focus Films / Miramax Films25 Oct 2002 (12)
    237 / 794$381,650 / $21,900,693-27* Analyze That
    Warner Bros.6 Dec 2002 (6)
    502 / 2,635$374,326 / $31,507,422-28* Bowling for Columbine
    MGM/UA11 Oct 2002 (14)
    204 / 248$352,609 / $16,631,101-30* Empire
    Arenas Entertainment / Universal Studios6 Dec 2002 (6)
    324 / 869$328,860 / $17,188,725-33* Rabbit-Proof Fence
    Miramax Films27 Nov 2002 (7)
    94 / 94$321,667 / $2,144,138-
    ...
    >30Blue Collar Comedy Tour
    Warner Bros.10 Jan 2003 (1)
    - / - / ->30* Confessions of a Dangerous Mind
    Miramax Films31 Dec 2002 (2)
    5 / 5$81,812 / $308,027->30P.S. Your Cat Is Dead!
    TLA Releasing10 Jan 2003 (1)
    - / - / ->30The Slaughter Rule
    Cowboy Booking International10 Jan 2003 (1)
    2 / 2$1,464 / $2,523->30The Son
    New Yorker Films10 Jan 2003 (1)
    - / -$10,048 / $10,048->30Tales Not Told
    Premiere Marketing and Distribution Group10 Jan 2003 (1)
    - / - / -
     
  3. Matt Pelham

    Matt Pelham Screenwriter

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    The Hulk - $285 Million. Expect this one to open BIG
    X2 - $195 Million. Another big opening and similar legs to the first one.
    Terminator 3 - $225 . Looks horrible, should still make decent money.
    Finding Nemo - $194 . Doesn't have the appeal of the other Pixar films.
    The Matrix Reloaded - $290 . Going to be amazing.
    The Matrix Revolutions - $268 . Same as above
    Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - $370
     
  4. Chuck Mayer

    Chuck Mayer Lead Actor

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    I've waited too long!

    My initial take on the year:

    Bad Boys 2 - $210M
    A big hit of the summer. I expect it to do very well, and this number is a wild ass guess.

    Bruce Almighty - $140M
    Jim Carrey back to his strengths...but it has been a while.

    Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle - $100 M
    No accounting for taste. I'll see it on cable. But it should do alright at the BO.

    Daredevil - $85M
    Like the Scorpion King. People are a bit sick of Ben, and the trailer is average. Not nearly the draw of Hulk or Spidey.

    Finding Nemo - $275M
    I am very confused at the lowballing of this film. The first DISNEY film in a "blockbuster" summer was The Lion King. It had no competition (sound familiar to 2003), and IT RULED THE ROOST. I expect this to be one of the huge hits of the summer.

    Pirates of the Caribbean - $100M
    Interesting cast.

    Shanghai Knights - $75M
    Should do rather well in a weak spring.

    Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines - $195M
    Will have a HUGE opening...but then MIIB syndrome will probably set in.

    The Hulk - $225M
    Big. Very big. Hulk sized, but no Spidey. Still a very big hit. Could go quite a bit higher.

    The Matrix: Reloaded - $265M
    The Matrix: Revolutions - $250M
    Highest grossing "R" films in history. If they are PG-13, they'll go over $300M. Tough to call the second until we see opening weekend on the first.

    X2 (X-Men 2) - $175M
    Unlike Spidey, The Matrix WILL eat into X2 a bit. Not enough to kill, just enough to annoy Fox.

    Return of The King - Tough to call prior to TTT finishing it's run (but that'll be a while). I expect it to make about $10M less than TTT. I might eat those words when it OWNZ, but who knows.

    More as the year progresses. Never underscore Pixar. Especially in an anemic summer for kid's films...

    Take care,
    Chuck
     
  5. Chris

    Chris Lead Actor

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    Terry, I'm copying your list and making my predictions NOW:
    JANUARY
    "Just Married" $40 million (I agree,no opinions on others)
    FEBRUARY
    "Daredevil" $95 million (I'm predicting this film will BARELY make $95M if that, and may turn into much less...)
    "Shanghai Knights" $65 million'
    "The Jungle Book 2" $35 million
    MARCH
    (No projections on any of the march or april releases)
    MAY
    "The Matrix Reloaded" $300+ million - I know, people are saying "but it's "R".. I thought about that too.. but I think "Matrix Reloaded" may be one of the most anticipated films of the entire next year, and I would not be shocked to see this thing have a 100M+ Opening weekend.
    "X2" $165 million - XMen didn't do huge box office, I don't think the sequel will draw vast numbers over the original. It will perform very well, but I can't see it breaking $200M.
    "Finding Nemo" $230 million. It's Pixar. It's kid friendly. And the story will be good.
    "Bruce Almighty" $140 million - Previews looked good. Could catch on as a good comedy alternative.
    "Daddy Day Care" $50 million (I think this will bomb)
    JUNE
    "The Hulk" $200 million - I think the Hulk will turn in a fair performance, but $350M? No way. No way whatsoever. $200M if it's lucky.
    "2 Fast 2 Furious" $110 million
    "Freddy vs. Jason" $8.35. And then someone will post on the internet it's utter crap and no one will go... well, I wish it were that way..
    JULY
    "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines" $160 million
    "Bad Boys 2" $135 million
    "Pirates of the Caribbean" $45 million (See: Cutthroat Island)
    "Lara Croft: Tomb Raider- The Cradle of Life" $75 million
    "Spy Kids 3" $82 million
    "The Exorcist: The Beginning" $16.50. A couple goes and tells their friends that it is basically Excorcist 2, except James Earl Jones doesn't puke. No one else attends.
    AUGUST
    (no projections)
    SEPTEMBER
    (no projections)
    OCTOBER
    "Kill Bill" $95 million (fans will love it, others will hate it..)
    "Intolerable Cruelty" $85 million
    NOVEMBER
    "The Matrix Revolutions" EITHER $200M or $350M, if Reloaded has fantastic word of mouth, this could be a MONSTER blockbuster.
    "Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat" $140 million
    "Looney Tunes: Back in Action" $47 million
    DECEMBER
    "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $300 million
    "The Last Samurai" $135 million
    "The Alamo" $130 million
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Seth Paxton

    Seth Paxton Lead Actor

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    I'll copy too for some early guesses
    (this post is being edited to reflect any alterations to my guesses as well as summerizing the final results of guesses)
    JANUARY
    "Just Married" $40 million
    under by $16m - decent
    FEBRUARY
    "Daredevil" $75 million
    under by $27m - not terrible
    "Shanghai Knights" $85 million
    missed by $25m - not terrible
    MARCH
    Phone Booth $90 million
    missed by almost $45m [​IMG]
    MAY
    "The Matrix Reloaded" $320 million (edit: bumped up 45m on April 19)
    Should have stuck with my original guess, instead I am going to be over by about $40m
    "X2" $175 million
    Going to miss by some $40m over my guess, much bigger than I expected
    "Finding Nemo" $275 million. (edit: bumped up 35m more on May 15, up another $10m on May 22)
    holy smokes, I was still under by $65m...at least I thought it would be a hit
    "Bruce Almighty" $220 million (edit: bumped up about 20m on Jan 28, bumped another $55m on May 22)
    Off by about 10-15m, a very good guess
    "Down with Love" $50m (edit: changed this on May 15)
    Good idea on the change, but still not enough. Missed by $30m over on this bomb
    JUNE
    "The Hulk" $200 million (edit: down $50m on May 22)
    missed by $70 million, another film that just wasn't the type of film I expected, definitely not the crowd pleaser type
    "Charlie's Angels 2" $155 million (edit: up $10m on May 22)
    missed by $55m, film was a lot worse than I expected
    "2 Fast 2 Furious" $110 million
    Under by about $20m but a pretty solid guess
    JULY
    Legally Blond 2 $150m (added June 30)
    missed by $60 million, another bad miss on a bad sequel
    Sinbad $110m (added June 30, up $35m later on June 30)
    off by about 400% or $80m...yikes, a terrible month for me
    "League of Extraordinary Gentlemen" $180 million (edit: a whopping downshift of $110m on May 22, back up $40m on June 30)
    missed by $120m, a terrible miss on my part for a film seen as a total disaster
    "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines" $170 million (edit: up $20m on June 19, up $60m on June 30, back down $40m on June 30)
    off by only $20m...what, I got one right?
    "Bad Boys 2" $155 million (edit: up $20m on June 19)
    over by $17m, not too bad
    "Pirates of the Caribbean" $225 million (up $25m on June 30)
    under by $80m, I knew it would be a hit but what a run it had...must be where all the money went from the films that bombed
    "Lara Croft: Tomb Raider- The Cradle of Life" $110 million (edit: up $45m on May 22)
    I never should have adjusted it upward since I missed by $50m
    "Spy Kids 3" $90 million
    under by $20m...in the ballpark at least
    "Dumb and Dumberer" $85 million
    Wow, I didn't think it would play big, but I was still over by $60m, terrible guess
    Seabiscuit $145m (added June 30)
    only over by $25m, not too bad
    AUGUST
    "American Wedding" $130 million
    over by $25m...another in the park but not great
    "Like Hell: Jeepers Creepers 2" $75 million
    over by twice as much or $30m...terrible guess
    "Freddie v. Jason" $110 million (added July 8)
    over by $30m...starting to look like I gave almost every film too much credit
    OCTOBER
    "Kill Bill" $100 million (Pulp only did $108m, even in 95 dollars that's not a mega-hit)
    "Intolerable Cruelty" $140 million
    NOVEMBER
    "The Matrix Revolutions" $260 million (edit: added $40m on May 22)
    "Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat" $200 million (quality could give this a word of mouth bump, right now I'm guessing no better than Grinch quality
    edit: up $85m on June 19)
    "Love Actually" $120 million (counter programming that could really earn for a month or two)
    "Elf" $200 million (added Nov 6)
    "Master and Commander" $160 million (added Nov 10)
    DECEMBER
    "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $320 million
    "Cold Mountain" $100 million (added Nov 10)
    "The Last Samurai" $150 million (edit: adding $60m on May 22 due to Cruise name regonition)
    ---> bumped to 2004 "The Alamo" $110 million
     
  7. Mark Zimmer

    Mark Zimmer Producer

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    What the heck, I'm in.

    Finding Nemo: $220M
    Daredevil: $85M
    Hulk: $180M
    Matrix Reloaded $280M
    Matrix Revolutions $300M assuming the Reloaded DVD comes out before Revolutions hits theaters; otherwise $270M.
    Terminator 3: $140M Big opening, quick plummet
    Dumb and Dumberer: $40M Maybe less if word leaks out that neither Carrey nor whatzisname is attached to it before release.
    Pirates of the Caribbean: I have no idea on this one; Depp tends not to be in high-grossing pictures, but how can you argue with sword-fighting skeletons? $150M, let's say.
    2 Fast 2 Furious $70M No Vin Diesel=box office disaster
    Cat in the Hat mmm could bomb but the name recognition is HUGE. $230M unless it's so bad parents absolutely refuse to take the kids to it a second time.
    Return of the King $420M yes you read it here first. I fully expect the extended DVD of TTT to have the movie public whipped into an utter frenzy, and if it's half as good as the participants are hinting it is, it should be a monster hit.
     
  8. Dana Fillhart

    Dana Fillhart Supporting Actor

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    Updated the last table with the actual tallies (instead of the estimates). Fixed a couple errors, too.

    I now have the tables being generated from Excel, so I don't have to manually enter every little detail each time, just update the columns with the new data (which, given BOM's site structure, makes it really easy to do).
     
  9. Sam E. Torres

    Sam E. Torres Second Unit

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    i can't help but think you guys are overestimating on the hulk. i mean the advertising strategy is strikingly similar to another green menace we had a few years ago (i'm surprised no one has compared the two so far). and if those rumors about giant mutated "hulk poodles" are true....
    then i guarantee you all the hulk toys will be on the clearance rack at toys r us by july.
     
  10. Chris

    Chris Lead Actor

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    That's kinda what I'm thinking.. the Hulk could turn into the Godzilla of 2003.
     
  11. Brian W.

    Brian W. Screenwriter

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    Both Box Office Mojo and Box Office Guru are predicting TTT will hold onto #1 for a fourth week, with Catch Me If You Can hot on its heels and Just Married a solid third. Here are Box Office Mojo's predix for the weekend:

    1 The Two Towers 16.5
    2 Catch Me If You Can 15.3
    3 Just Married (2,764 theaters) 13.8
    4 Two Weeks Notice 8.0
    5 About Schmidt 7.0
    6 Maid in Manhattan 5.7
    7 Gangs of New York 5.1
    8 Antwone Fisher (1,006 theaters) 5.0
    9 Chicago 4.5
    10 Narc (822 theaters) 4.1
    11 The Wild Thornberrys 3.2
    12 Adaptation (560 theaters) 2.9
    25th Hour (490 theaters) 2.1
     
  12. Adam_S

    Adam_S Producer

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    that sounds about what I was thinking for both TTT and CMIYC, though I would edge TTT closer to 18 million myself. I also just have a gut hunch that Maid in Manhattan and Two Weeks Notice will flipflop BOM's predictions, because from what I've heard MIM is the much prefered and better film.

    Antwone FIshcer in 1000 theaters huh? maybe I'll get to see it today after all, unless About Schmidt has finally expanded to here.

    Adam
     
  13. Brian Lawrence

    Brian Lawrence Producer

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    I noticed over at Box-Office Mojo, That on Thursday "Catch Me if You Can" (1.68mill) was #1 for the day, Marking the first time Two Towers (1.59) was not on top for the day.
     
  14. Luis Cruz

    Luis Cruz Stunt Coordinator

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    Here are my predictions for what I think the following films will make.

    Daredevil- If this is good, it could possibly make 150 million, if it is so-so then it will probably make around 100 million.

    X2 (a.k.a. X-Men 2)- I don't know why everyone is under estimating this film. This film is going to be huge. Plus the first 2 weeks of May there are no big releases to impact it's sales. It will also have 2 weeks before the Matrix to gobble as much money as it can. If this film is as good as what I've been reading and hearing then I say this film could easily make 250-300 million in its domestic take.

    Matrix:Reloaded- Here is a movie that is going to set some records for being an R rated movie. I say this will easily make 250-300 million.

    Finding Nemo- I say this movie, since it's Pixar, it will make around 200 million.

    2 Fast 2 Furious- Considering this film does not have Vin Diesel in it. I don't think it will beat the first one. I say it might even have a tough time cracking the century mark.

    The Hulk- I say this has 200 million written all over it. Maybe even more. Could do surprisingly well.

    Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle- This will most probably make around 100 million for its domesitic haul.

    Legally Blonde 2: 100 million.

    Terminator 3: This is a tough one. If it's good it could make 200+ million, if it is bad, I say around 150 million.

    Pirates of the Carribean- 80-100 million.

    Bad Boys II- 175 million.

    Tomb Raider 2- 50-100 million.

    Spy Kids 3- 80 million

    Matrix:Revolutions- This one is tough to call. There are to many uncertainties to really make a good guess on it. If the second one doesn't tire everyone out, then this could make around the same as the second will make. If it does tire everyone out, then it will end up with around 200 million.

    Looney Tunes: Back in Action- 90 million.

    Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King- 360 million.
     
  15. Brian W.

    Brian W. Screenwriter

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  16. Joshua_Y

    Joshua_Y Screenwriter

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    My Predictions:

    LotR: RotK - $335mil
    Matrix Reloaded - $285mil
    Matrix Revolutions - $220mil
    T3 - If it sucks: $75mil. If its good: $150mil
    Daredevil - $150mil
    X2 - $235mil
    Hulk - $200mil
    Tomb Raider 2 - $100mil
     
  17. Iain Jackson

    Iain Jackson Second Unit

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    More predictions from me:
    Bad Boys 2: $160m - this looks like it could be big, but I'd imagine it'll still be R-rated and there's a lot of competition this summer.
    Spy Kids 2: $70m - that sounds about right to me.
    Legally Blonde 2: $120m - this should do a little bit better than the original, mainly based on a strong opening.
    Dreamcatcher: $125m - this could perform a bit like The Ring...
    Pirates of the Caribbean: $130m - Disney are supposedly pushing this as a tentpole film, but I don't see it being that successful.
    Bruce Almighty: $150m - this looks like it could be a very fun film.
    Looney Tunes: Back In Action: $115m - this one is hard to judge, so I'll go for a middle of the road estimate.
     
  18. Joshua_Y

    Joshua_Y Screenwriter

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    Whats Dreamcatcher?
     
  19. Malcolm R

    Malcolm R Executive Producer

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  20. Dennis Pagoulatos

    Dennis Pagoulatos Supporting Actor

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    Early Friday numbers posted at BO Mojo show "Just Married" in FIRST place! With CMIYC in second, and TTT in third! Whoa!! What the??!

    Another big drop of TTT in the making? Not looking good at all if that is the case...$325 million is looking pretty iffy if it has another (almost) 50% drop!

    -Dennis
     

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