OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (1 Viewer)

[Jay W]

I'll add my 2 cents since I'm up at this ungodly hour...

Star Wars: AOTC - 350M

Spiderman - 170M

LOTR: TTT - 260M

Harry Potter: COS - 280M

Men In Black 2 - 140M (bit of a hunch here)

Austin Powers 3 - 155M

 

[Tino]

Seth
I'm...gonna...kick...your...ass..when we finally meet!
I said about 20%..ABOUT. Jeez. All right then 25%.
OK, happy now Mr. Seth (John Nash) Paxton!?

 

[Jan H]

Based on the very early positive buzz on AOTC, could "The King of The World" Cameron be quaking in his boots? Think about it: TPM sucked, and it still made $431 M. Potential repeat customers (like me) were put off by Lucas' misstep. If AOTC comes close to the magic of "Star Wars" or "Empire", coupled with a love story (how much less plausible could AOTC's be?) why couldn't it challenge Titanic's record?

FWIW:

AOTC - 500 M

Potter- 350

TTT - 320

Spiderman - 300 M

Hollywood will be celebrating all summer long.

 

[Terrell]

No, no matter how great AOTC is, Titanic is not in trouble. AOTC may very well beat TPM. I don't think it will, but it wouldn't surprise me if the positive reviews keep coming. Even going past 500 million wouldn't surprise me. But it's not really gonna get close to the 600 million.

If AOTC turns out the be a Star Wars fanboy's wet dream(pardon the decription) then it's very likely they'd go nuts and see this film 10 times. I also think a lot of casual Star Wars fans and movie fans will give it at least one repeat viewing, if it's as good as advertised. But 500 million while possible, is a long shot.

I'm revising my AOTC estimate upwards by 25 million dollars, to 375 million. If more raves keep coming, I may raise it another 25 million. My estimate still stands on the other films.

 

[Jan H]

Terrell,

Points well taken, the 500 M figure probably is a long shot, but I have a new hope that whatever AOTC makes at the box office, it exceeds that of TPM's. On another note, I remember as a 12-year-old in 1980, word-of-mouth at the time was that "Empire" was a downer and had a cliff-hanger ending. I'm guessing that that was the reason that it didn't fare as well as the original at the box office. While "Star Wars" was a tough act to follow, TPM is not. Keep those revisions coming.

 

[Chris]

I picked up SW:AOTC tickets today.. and was told the first few showings were already close to sold out.

They also told me that they were instructed if they wanted to run AOTC in DLP they would have to commit for NINE MONTHS.

I thought that was ludicris and asked a manager. All he said to me was that they would be required to carry the film "for a significant amount of time" for DLP rights, in return, if they showed the film in DLP they would be listed on all official LucasFilm websites as a site showing the film in the "preferred" format.. (FYI, this is AMC Olathe, one of 19 theaters listed as carrying it in DLP)

 

[Terrell]

Jan, what's funny is if you go look at critic's reviews of Empire and all of the originals now. Some critics have done some major backtracking on their opinions after the originals became classics that have stood the test of time. It really is funny.

You could be right. I could be dead wrong. I usually am about these things. I think Spiderman will do great, but because AOTC opens a mere 13 days after it's opening, it won't do as good as it could have. I'd say 225 million. 250 at best. TTT and Harry Potter will do great, but come in a bit lower than their predecssors.

 

[Jan H]

T,

I think that I may have have overestimated Spiderman's take. Yeah, 300 M is mucho dough for a film that is only 2 weeks away from the Jedi Mind Trick.

Regards,

Qui-Gonn...Jan

 

[Brian Kaz]

They also told me that they were instructed if they wanted to run AOTC in DLP they would have to commit for NINE MONTHS.

That would be weird, seeing as the DVD supposedly comes out 5-6 months after the release.

 

[Chris]

That would be weird, seeing as the DVD supposedly comes out 5-6 months after the release.

That's what I asked the manager. His only response was "for a considerable period of time" maybe the girl at the ticket counter meant weeks.

 

[Seth Paxton]

OK, happy now Mr. Seth (John Nash) Paxton!?

Are you a real person, or do I just post as you also???
Boy, after seeing Spider-Man, Stoney might be in some trouble (unless his stomach is stronger than I think it is).
And the new MIB2 trailer in front of SM had the crowd rolling, just SO MANY funny lines from that film so far. Maybe they are blowing it all on the trailers, but considering the first film I don't think they are.
I think they have a winning comedy formula and know how to work it.
Man, that dog singing and the "...but it kept getting pulled over" line The crowd was dying.
It went over much better than the Goldmember trailer. Though I liked it the audience seemed sick of it. Feels like backlash coming, but maybe Myers will win them back with a good effort.

 

[Terrell]

Who is Stoney?

 

[Matt Stone]

I'm Stoney!
(people always call me that sooner or later )

 

[Sean Oneil]

Yummy Yummy Laserdiscs.. *munch* *munch* ...Good :b

 

[Malcolm R]

Boxofficemojo is reporting an opening day Friday Estimate of:

$40 MILLION

for Spider-Man !!!
Possibly $100M+ for the weekend???

 

[Iain Jackson]

$40 million??????
Wow. If this is true, I think that Harry Potter's opening weekend record just went out the window...

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

I posted this in the discussion thread but I may as well post it here:
The exact estimate is $41,413,000, which is an amazing opening. I don't think anyone is expecting it to make that much. It is on its way to make around $110M this weekend if that estimate holds.
Wow! That sure puts a lot of pressure on Episode 2.
~Edwin

 

[Tom Ryan]

Ummm..........I'm upping my friendly neighborhood Spidey estimate to $260 million
-Tom

 

[TerryRL]

I knew "Spider-Man" would be huge, but I wasn't expecting a $41.4 million opening day. Even if the movie doesn't have strong legs, it's opening weekend all but guarentees it to easily pass the $200 million mark. I predicted a $250 million-plus run for the movie.

It's going to be real interesting to see how well AOTC opens. Stellar reviews helped "Spider-Man" and I think the solid reviews AOTC has garnered (so far) will also mean a really big opening. I don't see it opening as big as "Spider-Man", but it'll have a fat debut.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

That number is almost mind-blowing. I assume most theaters (I KNOW they did here) sold out. I cannot imagine that it won't make over $100M this weekend, which is insane! That said, AOTC will beat it. That's a fact. But it can't beat it by much - only the extra showings will help...$45M is my prediction for Thursday.
Matt might better plan on buying a new DefColl of SW...cause I know I'll see this at least once or twice more, and the crowd I was with ATE IT UP!
Take care,
Chuck