OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (1 Viewer)

[Seth Paxton]

Matt's being a stand-up guy about it. I was just going to recommend to you to pull the Tino revision (he went from 150 to 175 after the opening weekend).
More salsa...or a plunger.

 

[Matt Pelham]

When did we get to start re-adjusting our predictions based on opening weekends? I'm going to re-adjust my predictions after every weekend until I get it exactly right down to the dollar.
just kidding
I do think it's funny how people are suddenly dropping their AOTC predictions after Spiderman as someone mentioned. Spiderman is HUGE, AOTC will be bigger. I'm predicting a 125 million Thurs-Sun opening (4-day) weekend and slightly better legs than Spiderman. I'm also upping my prediction from 350 to 380 million for AOTC.

 

[Seth Paxton]

I think with AOTC getting good early reviews that Spider-Man will be enjoying a short run as the single day champ.

Of course, screen count has a lot to do with that and Lucas is a screen count control freak, ie who has to guarantee what to even get the film like number of screens, quality of screens, etc.

But summer audiences seem primed this year. As I mention in the SM discussion thread, could some of this be due to 9/11 - in terms of shaking up society and sending them running for escapism. We mentioned it before Potter and FOTR came out, and you have to wonder. Just think of how well Monsters Inc even did.

SM makes the 4th blockbuster in a row to meet/exceed BO expectations. This after a 2 year run of mostly blockbuster flops.

I expect AOTC to be the 5th. Sum of All Fears should also do very well. Several of the summer films look to be good, and we already have an idea about Potter and TTT.

There is no reason to doubt this year as the biggest in BO history by a wide margin. And FOTR could be on it's way out of the top 10 a lot sooner than expected.

 

[Terrell]

I've adjusted my predictions twice now. I suck at predicting these things. However, remember that Spider-Man was released on a ridiculous amount of theaters. Sony didn't care about keeping it out of crappy theaters. They just wanted maximum market penetration and maximum box office.
Lucas is not going to allow AOTC in to crap theaters. I see Lucas releasing it into at most 3100 theaters, which is more than 500 less than Spidey.

 

[Matt Stone]

Hahaha.
Okay, okay, I'll make an upward revision...
Spiderman - $195,000 revised to $250,000
That way I can revise my original prediction, without breaking my LD Eating Gaurantee
...dammit, and those Laserdiscs set me back 100 bucks.

 

[Brian Lawrence]

Does anyone know how many total screens Spiderman is playing on? Every year it seems like opening weekends on blockbuster films keep getting bigger and bigger. Is it getting to the point that films make so damn much money in their first three days, is because hardly anybody gets turned away due to sellouts. I still doubt very much that Spidey will crack $300 million. Even if the word is good (Personaly I have heard mostly decent yet unspectacular word on the film) I still expect this movie to take a 50%-60% plunge next weekend.

Clearly it will make more than my predicted $185 mill, but I still don't see it being 300+

 

[TerryRL]

AOTC is expected to be the widest opening SW flick ever as it will likely open in about 3,500 theaters (about 6,500 total screens). Lucasfilm won't make nearly as many of the demands they did with TPM, this will greatly benefit AOTC.

The people at Lucasfilm aren't stupid, they realize the wider the better in terms of this movie.

 

[Terrell]

I meant to say theaters, not screens. I do disagree though Terry. I'd say we'd be pushing it to see it in 3200. I read that Spider-Man was released in close to 3700 theaters. If I remember correctly, TPM wasn't released that wide, so I don't expect AOTC to be released in that many either.

 

[Randall Z]

I still expect this movie to take a 50%-60% plunge next weekend.

I agree, I think everyone who wanted to see it saw it this weekend. I also don't think it has a ton of rewatchability value. And even if it did, it still couldn't compete w/ AOTC. SM is just an appetizer. AOTC is the main course.

I hope SM enjoys it while it can.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

Every year it seems like opening weekends on blockbuster films keep getting bigger and bigger. Is it getting to the point that films make so damn much money in their first three days, is because hardly anybody gets turned away due to sellouts.

Potter still holds the record for the widest opening at 3,674 theaters. Spiderman's theater count is around 3,615.
~Edwin

 

[Vickie_M]

And FOTR could be on it's way out of the top 10 a lot sooner than expected.

Yep...well...for one brief, shining moment...
(Edited for bad grammar. Why can't I seem to catch these things during preview??)

 

[Terrell]

Waitaminnut...movies in theaters are supposed to be dying a horrible death.

Ain't that the truth. I went to see Spider-Man last night, and I've never seen so many people in one place, buying buckets of popcorn, drinks, candy, and everything. It was the same during Monsters Inc, Harry Potter, LOTR, and a number of other films last year. And yet these people want me to believe that they're in trouble. I find that very difficult to believe, especially considering every year the box office gets bigger. And considering food and drink prices are absolutely ridiculous, and people were spending it like it was going out of style, I don't believe it.

I liken it to baseball owners saying they're broke, and their teams are broke, yet they keep giving players 100-250 million dollars. It's absurd. Theaters tell us that they're being killed, yet when I go to the movies, it always packed. Maybe my theater is the only one doing any business. After last night, they couldn't get me to believe that they can't afford any digital projectors. Last night they could have bought 2 or 3.

 

[TerryRL]

Terrell, apparently Rick McCallum said something along the lines of AOTC opening in about 3,500 locations. He made reference to this when he was questioned about the limited number of digital projectors.

TPM debuted in more than 2,900 theaters. With films like 'Potter', LOTR, and "Spider-Man" opening ultra-wide, I wouldn't be surprised if Lucasfilm did go with about 3,500 theaters.

 

[ChristopherDM]

Before I start if this doesnt belong in this thread I apoligize, but since has to with box office to point I post here
One Simple Question: If AOTC doenst break Spiderman's opening record will hollywood consider it a failure?
My answer is I hope not, I think everyone here is hoping that its better then EPI and according to Ron its seems ot have done so.
Christopher

 

[Terrell]

As they say, it's not how you start, it's how you finish. I thought TPM's opening wasn't all that huge considering it was Star Wars, and the monumental hype. But look what it did. 431 million isn't too shabby.

 

[Malcolm R]

I think everyone who wanted to see it saw it this weekend.

Not me. Of course, I didn't plan my whole weekend around it, either. I went to the theater, the shows were sold out, so I left. I'll try again next weekend (or the weekend after when everyone's clogging that other movie).
I think the demand for "Spider-Man" was higher than anyone expected. I guess after many years of talk about making a movie version, plus decades of comic book sales making fans of all ages, there was a lot of pent-up tension begging for release.
Spidey was the third widest release ever, after "Harry Potter" and "Mission Impossible 2."
Anyone know if there's any way to determine the highest possible maximum gross available for any film on a given weekend? That is, do we know for sure if SM sold-out every show in every theater and $114M was the most it could have grossed? I guess you'd have to know the capacity of each theater it was booked in, as well as compensating for those theaters that added screens on Saturday, and that information likely does not exist.

 

[David Echo]

One Simple Question: If AOTC doenst break Spiderman's opening record will hollywood consider it a failure?

Probably, yes and no. How's that for a definate answer

Yes, in that it (SW) will have to give Kudo's to Spider-Man for opening larger in what was probably assumed to be as close to a lock as you can get in Hollywood. No, because unless there is a tremendous backlash against EP2 by ticket buyers (unwarrented or not) SW should generate more box office (certainly worldwide if not domestic) than Spider-Man.

Remember that Titantic, the biggest grossing film of all time lost out to Scream 3 for biggest December opening the year of its release but it just kept generating box office week after week after week.

Ironically though, while it is the final figures that ultimately matter to the bean counters, big box office in the opening weeks of a film's North American release often have an effect on how a film opens abroad. Big opening numbers here usually mean big box office overseas as well.

Dave

 

[MickeS]

Oh man, I just got the box office numbers in the e-mail, and saw an estimate of $114M for Spider-man!!! I had to go here and dicsuss it of course.
That's insane... but in a good way.
I figured the numbers would be big though, I saw it on the 10:30 show this morning and it was nearly sold out (about 80% full I'd say), which is unusual for that timeslot in that theater.
I LOVED the movie (LOVED IT!! BEST MOVIE I'VE SEEN IN YEARS!!), so the numbers make me very happy, in that they guarantee a sequel.
/Mike

 

[Terrell]

I'm just hoping for more rave reviews, which takes precedent over box office opening, at least for me. For instance, let's say AOTC makes 120 million in it's first four days, but doesn't beat the weekend numbers of Spider-Man, there's no way that's a failure in any sense of the word. Where is it written that Star Wars absolutely has to have the biggest opening to be considered a success. TPM didn't have it. Far from it.

 

[Vickie_M]

431 million isn't too shabby.

Ha! Expecially considering there was a "backlash" and the "bad taste" it left in...uh...wait a minute, I used to know this..,oh yeah, "everyone's mouth".

AOTC will be massive. Joe Q and those truly excited to see another Star Wars film (iow, all people who pushed TPM to $431m) will flock to it. Great word-of-mouth will give it legs. Those vocal few who think their bad opinion of TPM is universal can stay home from what is already being touted as a far superior film and suck on each other's Jar Jar-flavored sour grapes.