OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (1 Viewer)

[Matt Stone]

Oh crap....oh crap

You better bring two jars of salsa, Seth.

 

[Matt Pelham]

Wow, someone called this one, eh?

 

[Matt Stone]

I bet this is how Tino felt after Lord of the Rings opening weekend

 

[Sean Oneil]

*tooting my own horn*
All the way back on page one of this thread I predicted a huge opening weekend for Spidey, and gave a final estimate of somewhere between 280-290 million dollars.
Apparently, I missed the fact that "The Lost World" had it's record broken by "Harry Potter" :b
But from the looks of things, that record is history come Monday morning.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

For a quick update...the AMC 24 in Alexandria is showing it on at least 4+ screens.
And it is sold out for the next 10 shows (10 PM is the next slot). I think they expanded it, because they have TWENTY EIGHT shows of SM today. I expected a big weekend, but not this...I still expect AOTC to top it, but not if Lucas limits theaters. Those numbers are mind-boggling...and good for Sony! They get rewarded for the right director, faithfulness to the source, and plain fun.
Take care,
Chuck

 

[Dana Fillhart]

Well, my ~$200m guess might turn out to be a little low -- I just got back from seeing a 3:30 showing, and it was sold out (I barely got a ticket for it). The next showing was going extremely fast, and when I exited the theatre there was a huge crowd lined up waiting for the 6pm show. And this is in a lesser-populated area of Jersey, relative to the big metro of Hudson/Passaic/Essex/Union counties.
I won't revise my guesstimate, but acknowledge I am probably going to end up a wee bit low

 

[Matt Stone]

I gave a Laserdisc eating gaurantee...and I can't take it back, so I'll stick by my prediction of < 250m.

 

[Michael*K]

The exact estimate...

Isn't this a contradiction in terms?

 

[Jay W]

That is huge, I certainly wasn't expecting that kind of opening day. My estimate is going to be quite quite low

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Checking the front page...
Most of us predicted low $200M's...which might be accurate if it drops off a bunch or AOTC eats it whole. But...
1) The buzz in my theater was huge throughout the film. Applause at the end as well. Good word of mouth to follow.
2) SW overflow will walk into SM.
3) Monday's announcement of the weekend total will be great advertising for the film...possibly the first $100M weekend ever.
I think we might have all underestimated Spider-Man's draw. I also highly doubt AOTC will "swallow" it...it will certainly outsell it by a wide margin, but I see SM having very solid staying power based on crowd reaction. But it's only the very first weekend...who knows. It just certainly passed all the opening weekend expectations. I almost fell on the floor when I saw $41M OPENING DAY!
Kudos...I will still stand by my $250M, but it might roll a bit higher...I plan on helping
Take care,
Chuck

 

[Dennis Pagoulatos]

I think its staying power will depend on word of mouth, obviously. Now, I enjoyed it a great deal, but my expectations were set pretty low. I saw it yesterday at the Sony Metreon in San Francisco, and the urban-teen crowd that filled that auditorium was pretty low key during the movie. People actually snickered during some of the "emotional lovey-dovey" moments...hokey was the word that came to mind.
Overall, the film played well, but I think that the huge opening weekend it is sure to have (41.4 mil in one day!) is more a sign of the huge hype build-up than a sign of a good movie.
For once, I actually agreed with Ebert's review! (Go read it!!)
But, unlike Ebert, I really enjoyed the Peter Parker/ Mary Jane relationship...call me a SAP, but I fell for it!
The action scenes, on the other hand, were very underwhelming...and the special effects...well...were BAD...but the characters made me care less about that apparent weakness.
Sony consistently puts out the cheapest looking CGI this side of Babylon 5!! Stop the madness!!
--Dennis
PS My prediction is going to hell in a handbasket!

 

[Derek Faber]

Well, I guessed, with no estimate, that Spider-man would have an awesome opening, just not 100mil+ awesome.

I'm seeing Spider-man hitting around 280-290mil. Sure wish I guessed that at the time.

GO SPIDEY!!!!!

 

[Terrell]

Well, Spidey will probably have a better opening weekend than AOTC. Thursday hurts AOTC weekend numbers a bit. But I predict AOTC to have longer legs.

EDIT: Based on that gargantuan Friday box office, Spider-Man just may beat AOTC at the box office.

My new box office figure are as follows.

Spider-Man - 335 million

Star Wars - 325 million

My AOTC estimate goes down by another 25 million. My Spider-Man estimate goes up by almost 75-100 million. I'm now predicting that Spider-Man beats AOTC. 41.4 million on Firday alone. WOW!

 

[Brian Lawrence]

I was stunned to see that Showcase Cinemas in Warwick, RI has Spiderman playing on 7 screens!! I swear the more screens this theater gets, the less movies they actually have playing. I guess Star Wars will get an 8-10 screen opening. No need to stand in long lines when the damn things are playing on that many screens.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

Based on the $114M weekend estimate and good word-of-mouth, I am making a preliminary estimate of $370M for Spriderman's overall run. It should have a lot of life even with AOTC opening in less than two weeks.
It will also benefit from repeat viewings and the upcoming long Memorial Day holiday weekend.
~Edwin

 

[TerryRL]

This summer is likely to become the first to produce two movies that make over $350 million.

I still see AOTC having stronger legs, but I fully expect both movies to make history and pass the $350 million mark.

"Spider-Man" is a good old fasioned summer blockbuster in the same vain as "Jurassic Park" and "Independence Day". Star Wars movies are just hard to calculate because they're just a different animal.

I wouldn't be surprised if AOTC out earns TPM. The movie is getting stellar reviews so far and I think it'll be the most exciting SW movie Lucas has ever done.

It'll be interesting to see how it all shapes up. But Sony is going to have a monster summer with both "Spider-Man" and "Men in Black" passing the $200 million mark. "xXx", "Stuart Little 2", "Mr. Deeds", and "Enough" should also be big hits for Sony this summer.

 

[Larry Sutliff]

I'm readjusting my estimate of 250 million dollars for SPIDEY to 300 million dollars,and even that may be a low estimate. AOTC will probably make more in the long run, but it's obvious that this is the first time that a STAR WARS film may not end up being the #1 film of the year. The main thing, of course, is that the films are good; and that is certainly the case with SPIDERMAN and looks to be with AOTC!

 

[TerryRL]

My new bold summer predictions are...

#1 "Attack of the Clones" $400 mil

#2 "Spider-Man" $350 mil

#3 "Minority Report" $250 mil

#4 "Men in Black II" $225 mil

#5 "Austin Powers in Goldmember" $190 mil

As for the rest of the year, both "Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets" and "The Two Towers" are going to be massive hits. I expect both to have no problem passing $250 mil each.

 

[Chris Harvey]

Interesting that people keep down-grading AOTC in light of Spidey's success. By most (if not all) accounts AOTC is

a) better than Episode I

b) waaay cool to look at

Shouldn't word-of-mouth be pretty decent for it? Even if TPM turned a bunch of people off, AOTC should get solid word-of-mouth to make up for it.

$370-400 for AOTC, $350-370 for Spidey.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Chris,
I think you are right...Spidey's success bodes well for AOTC. I'd be rounding both up before downgrading one. AOTC will do the very same thing, and longer, than SM.
As for predicting SW...the fans are a given. The reviews are really pointless wrt BO and AOTC. People who aren't going to go to AOTC still won't, even if every critic loves it. People who are going to go, will go even if every critic hates it. As for beating TPM...who knows? I am predicting $400M, but it's very tough to call. I am surprised people are pointing to reviews so much. These are summer films of major cultural icons. There is just not a lot of people waiting to see what local Joe or Jane Reviewer says about AOTC before they decide. As a guess, 80% of the box office for AOTC is locked in, quality or no. Maybe I am way off with that assumption. The major aspect of quality is the average moviegoer returning because they thought AOTC warranted it...that is tough to call. Many of them would rather see The Sum of All Fears, or the next big thing. They are not as jazzed about Yoda and lightsabers, and clone battles - and the fans who are would go again and again anyway (see TPM + $431M).
Take care,
Chuck
Edited for more thoughts