OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (2 Viewers)

[Terrell]

We won't see the same numbers on opening weekend as we did with Phantom, but I think this one will have longer legs.

I think just the opposite. AOTC faces more competition this year. I think AOTC absolutely destroys TPM opening weekend, which wasn't that high considering the gargantuan domestic box office gross. 64 million dollar weekend is not that much when you consider there are films that have done far more, yet didn't come close to TPM box office. Harry Potter beat TPM's opening weekend by almost 30 million dollars, and even with that, Harry Potter is still about 100 million dollars behind TPM domestic box office. That's a testament to it's incredible legs.

I think AOTC passes 100 million dollars in it's first 4 days. I think it breaks the 80 million barrier in the Friday thru Sunday weekend. I think AOTC makes a lot of money very quickly, but doesn't quite have the legs of it's predecessor. I think it ultimately makes more in the international market, but less domestically.

 

[John Berggren]

Terrell:

I forgot that this year Star Wars is not opening on a Wednesday. I always think of TPM opening as a lot higher than th $64M _weekend_ figure.

 

[Terrell]

TPM opened on a Wednesday if I'm not mistaken. So when I say 64 million, I don't include that Wednesday or Thursday box office. That is for the Friday thru Sunday weekend period only. AOTC opens on Thursday, which is a bit strange. That's why I say it makes more this weekend that TPM. Mainly because weekend openings have skyrocketed since TPM, and that extra day has been eliminated. So it's more crowded duing the weekend, this time around.

I always think of TPM opening as a lot higher than th $64M _weekend_ figure.

Yeah, most people always include that full 5-day opening when they talk about TPM. If we go by that, then TPM set a record for it's first 5 days.

 

[Matthew_Wilson]

Chuck, I would be thouroughly interested in where you attined yor "30%" figures for TTT. I dont really know much about B.O. but I do know that SW has never been that big of a money-maker in overseas markets (compared to domestic, of course) so I think AotC will make a little less in the U.S. and about the same in International. TTT however, should do better than FotR. The "non-ending" will play a major role in this, as will the video release, where it will undoubtedly gain alot more fans; from those who didnt want to shell out the bucks to see it in theaters because it was a "fantasy" movie. Lets not forget the impact that awards have, and LotR was nominated for ALOT of awards in major Awards Ceremonies. Having read the LotR novel, I will also assume that TTT will be a better film, because there will be no need to establish the old characters, and it is all-around, a much more adaptable book than FotR. Spider-Man will do well, too, being one of Americas staple super heros, and I believe HP2 will make less than its predesessor. I dont know why, I just dont think it will. Im not going to give out actual estimates however, because I will probably be way off.

 

[Matt Stone]

I'm with Matthew on this one...where did you get that 30% number, did you just make it up?

 

[Terrell]

Actually, AOTC is selling like mad in the U.K. with Harry Potter type numbers. In excess of half a billion is still quite a lot. The Odeon in London has sold out advance tickets to shows for AOTC in hours. AOTC won't make as much as TPM only because we're talking gargantuan number in the first place, 431 million. But I certainly expect AOTC to make more in the international markets than TPM did.

As for TTT, I'm sure it will lose a few just like any films will. But I'm not sure of 30%.

 

[Marvin Richardson]

Chuck, I would be thouroughly interested in where you attined yor "30%" figures for TTT.

Isn't this a box office prediction thread? All of this is conjecture, and he was making one.

 

[Dalton]

Well the advanced buzz on Spiderman is not too terrific so here are my predictions:
1. SW:AOTC - $380M
2. LOTR:TTT - $300M
3. HP - $225M
4. Spiderman - $180M
5. Goldmember - $160M
OK, I'll admit my Spidey prediction may be a little "LOW"

 

[Matt Stone]

Marvin,

I agree that this is a thread for conjecture, but usually conjecture doesn't include percentages...unless he is basing it on something.

 

[Chuck Anstey]

Guys,

My 30% figure is definitely made up but it is based upon and educated guess as to how many non-fans went to see FOTR, which from the BO was most of the people. Also combine that with the reports of "That's it??" and "That was a stupid ending". They came, they saw, they did not like it and will not be back for more at the theater. They might watch it on video and then some will be back in the theater for ROTK. While fans may see TTT more times than they saw FOTR (but I really doubt it overall) the general movie going public is not going to see it even once. Fans know that TTT has some of the best action in the entire series but to non-fans it will be just an uncohesive bunch of action scenes. They aren't not going to see it in droves just because it has one really kick-ass battle.

One huge problem with TTT is that it is not a different self-contained movie in the same universe ala Star Wars movies. If you didn't like FOTR, you aren't going to like TTT since it is just more of the same continuing the same exact story with the exact same characters. It won't be like AOTC where everyone here is hoping that it will have a better story and characters than TPM.

I feel very strongly about this prediction, as unfortunate to Newline and to myself as a fan it may be.

Chuck Anstey

 

[Matt Stone]

I get what you're saying Chuck. Just wondered where you got the number.

Thx for the explanation.

 

[Dalton]

I feel very strongly about this prediction, as unfortunate to Newline and to myself as a fan it may be.

Chuck,
I don't think New Line is gonna be too worried because FOTR made enough money worldwide that the next 2 movies are basically profit. Fotr is #5 all time worldwide. New Line isn't hurting for $$$

 

[Matthew_Wilson]

Well Chuck, I think you will be proved wrong come this winter, indefinately. Alot of people I know, were like "That`s it?" but they are also VERY interested in seeing the next installment. People want to know what is going to happen next, and I can GUARANTEE that most fans will see this more times than they saw FotR. This movie will have the fans favorite scenes from the book, and if you hang around any Tolkien fan sites, you`ll see what I mean. It is a generally, more approachable movie than FotR, and the ending of this film will give closure - PJ has stated this himself. Besides, if all the signs prove true, and this film gets the accolades the original got (which im almost positive it will) than how can people not go see it?? Besides, this film will be marketed to show all of the action - thats what gonna bring in the new audiences. I would wager 80% of the original audience of non-fans will go and see TTT (conjecture) and that the fans will see it more times than FotR. But I guess we`ll just have to wait and see; trailers havent even started showing yet, so I think it might be a little premature. But hey, thats what these threads are for.

 

[Chuck Anstey]

Matthew,

I would not care if I was wrong on this prediction but historical evidence like "Empire Strikes Back" shows TTT will be less that both FOTR and ROTK and that was when people were not able wait 6-9 months for the video so they had to see it in the theater or not see it at all. I'll toss in my ROTK prediction now too. IF my prediction about the TTT is accurate the ROTK will do about 250M. If I am wrong about TTT then obviously the assumptions I base ROTK predictions on are also wrong and my predition, if right, will be just a lucky guess.

Let me clarify my prediction for the number of times fans seeing the film. Take all the people who saw FOTR more than once and add up all the times they saw it. This number will be greater than the total number of viewings of people who see TTT more than once. Sure some individuals may see TTT more than they saw FOTR (especially die-hards) but I will stand by my above prediction, although there is no way to prove it even when the movie comes out.

Can't wait for the 9+ hour marathon in Dec 2003. No barrel of Coke for me on that day.

Chuck Anstey

 

[Matt Pelham]

Well, Sunday we'll all have something to talk about as the first "big" movie of the year opens and the numbers come in. www.boxofficeguru.com is predicting an $80 million opening weekend for spidey and I'm sticking with my 250+ prediction.

 

[Tino]

Okay, here are my last minute projections for Spidey and early ones for Chamber Of Secrets and The Two Towers:
Spiderman...$73 million opening
$220 million total
Attack Of The Clones...$375 million.
Chamber of Secrets..$250 million
The Two Towers...$225 million
Most sequels make 1/3 less than the originals, but since Potter and FOTR did so well, I am only predicting about a 20% dropoff.
Sw is getting better advance buzz than TPM hence the lower dropoff.
I reserve the right to change my mind at any time without notice.
Thank You.

 

[Ed E Lee]

Well, I'm no good at these things, but I thought.. why not.

1) AOTC $350 mil. Even if TPM did somewhat lessen the anticipation for the next movie, there are enough out there who'll see it.

2) Harry Potter 2 $295 mil. I wasn't a big fan of the first movie. It didn't do much for me at all. Regardless, alot of people saw the movie and enjoy the book franchise, so it looks like anything with Potter on it will sell well.

3) TTT $270 mil. This is the movie I'm looking forward to the most. Yes, if I had my druthers, this would rock over all others this year. However, I'm just one voice in a world of billions. I agree that it'll do less than FotR. But enough to make some boo coo bux.

4) Spider-Man $240 mil. I think this will do pretty well. I think it'll be hurt by AOTC's presence. I see it taking off over the next couple of weeksm but will be overshadowed by May 16.

Lessee how it goes...

 

[Seth Paxton]

So Tino is going from $150, err, $175m for FOTR to $225m for TTT.
Gee, by ROTK you might actually get all the way up to being correct Tino. :p)
Chuck, I think you are way overplaying a couple of items.
1) Everyone went to see FOTR - no. Certainly not. It did well and got out to audiences, but it made a lot of money on repeat biz too. A lot.
The video comes out, twice, shortly before TTT releases. That could really help.
2) TTT offers nothing new as a film. Well I've read several interviews with different cast/crew and all of them are discussing the extremely different mood, tone and style of TTT.
One reason for this, it is said, is due to the very different narrative being covered in the 2nd book/film. TTT has a least one moment in it that will be very ROTJ-esque (think Luke returning in the beginning as a "brand new" Jedi...) That's a crowd-pleaser right there.
I think TTT as a book is quite different and I fully expect the film to be as well.
BTW, what did ROTJ offer that Empire didn't? I mean that was my whole point in bringing that comparison up. I can't think of a closer situation to FOTR/TTT as ESB/ROTJ - both well-received films left major items hanging.
3) FOTR was up for an OSCAR. An OSCAR. Best Pix Oscar is nothing to scoff at, and the public knows it. That's one reason why it got a nice bump without winning the big one. Just that many noms and being up for the big one gives the film prestige within society.
We are no longer talking about just a popcorn film sequel.
So I sincerely think this is one sequel that should easily match it's previous take, or perhaps could slightly overtake it. It's custom-made to in many ways.
I can think of only 2 sequels that had the same sort of "continuation" flow between ending scene in one film and beginning of the next: ROTJ and Bride of Frankenstein...well, toss BTTF 3 in there too actually. Though BTTF 2 & 3 pushed their luck by not being as good as the first film, audiences grew tired of it by 3. In that case it was the same schtick over and over. Not sure that 3 actually offered something really appealing with the whole Old West theme (it's fun, but that series really did just repeat the first film formula twice).
And BoF was still a true sequel that was simply done well, it was a film that got made only because the first one did so well. Frank had a full ending of it's own and required some narrative work to open things back up again (which it did well).
Oh, and I'll make sure Matt eats those LDs if SM gets past 250. I think he's safe on that at this point, but it could be close. I'll bring salsa with me Matt.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Most sequels make 1/3 less than the originals, but since Potter and FOTR did so well, I am only predicting about a 20% dropoff.

um, 250 would be a 20% drop, 225 is a 27% drop. You are closer to your 1/3 number than 1/5.
Now I understand why Tino's guesses are always off...math troubles.

 

[Matt Stone]

Sounds good Seth. If you come up to watch the SEs sometime, bring the salsa! I'm sure they go well together...hehe