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OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (1 Viewer)

Matt Stone

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Yah, I know what you're saying Terrell...and I agree, delivery is just as important as the writing...and good delivery can make crappy dialog sound great. So...to rephase what I said before...
"I've come for the woman...and your head." I mean who the hell delivers this crap
...hehe ;)
 

Terrell

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:laugh: Well, if Mark Hamill, Carrie Fisher, and Harrison Ford were delivering it, it could be a whole lot better. But I understand your point. I mean who else could deliver "scruffy looking nerfherder" and "who's scruffy looking" and make it sound cool.
 

Luis S

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Larry,I think you pretty much nailed it.Lots of us here on this forum are LOTR fans and would like TTT to be a smash.But like you I dont see it that way.I saw LOTR and while it was an EXCELLENT movie,I dont see many people wanting to endure another 3hr movie.I consider myself to be among the average moviegoer and personally my money's on spidey.AOTC will be successful But I think spidey's gonna get multiple viewings,at least from me anyway ;) And thats what will make the difference. As much as we may love a paticular series/franchise we got to be realistic.No offence to any die hard LOTR fans :)
 

Terrell

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Well, there's no doubt all three of those films will be very successful. It's just decideig to what degree are they gonna be successful. Spiderman will probably get 2 viewings from me. Maybe 3 viewings. AOTC is gonna get probably 7 viewings. And TTT may get 3 viewings as well. Star Wars is my favorite. I originally predicted 375 million for AOTC. I've lowered that to 350 million, still a tremendous haul. And my Spiderman guess is 240 at best. Another great take. Harry Potter and TTT I guess will come in around a bit less than their predecessor, which is up there about 275 million to 300 million.
In the end, box office and who wins it doesn't mean anything, as long as the films make a profit and are successful. But it's fun discussing it, and then ragging on the ones who were wrong. And that could be me.:)
 

Vickie_M

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I actively despise wrestling, and had less than zero interest in The Scorpion King, until I read Stephen Orr's review in this forum. I'll wait to see what other people say upon release, but if the consensus is that it really is as zippy and funny as he says, I'll probably go. Truly enjoyable, entertaining, turn-your-brain-off and have a great time popcorn flicks are worth my money and time. We like good movies no matter what genre, and will give it a chance if it seems worth it. The key word there: if!
If someone like me says that they might just go see it, imagine all the Rock fans, action/adventure fans, genre fans and Mummy fans who'll go see it no matter what the reviews are like, not to mention all the kids who'll go see it just because it's PG-13. If it's halfway decent it will be a hit. If it's actually good (for what it is), it'll be a BIG hit.
My guess for The Scorpion King: $110-170 mil.
 

Win Joy Jr

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I think that one basic premise everyone is overlooking is this:

TTT is NOT a sequel… I do not think the same rules will apply…

The LotR produces have educated the masses enough for them to understand that the saga is 3 parts. Going into the first part, you will need to wait 2 years for the payoff. For TTT, the public will have a DVD / VHS available, and only a year until the final chapter…

I would even hazard to guess that RotK may be the biggest of all three…

Plus, we need to factor in that ticket prices have risen since last December, and will, in my opinion, will rise again in the fall. So part of the increased Box Office will be from rising ticket prices.
 

Tom Ryan

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Win Joy Jr, for all intents and purposes, TTT IS a sequel. Even if the general public does understand that there are three movies, most of them don't understand the distinction that LOTR is really one film, and will treat TTT like any other sequel. Basically, if says something like Lord Of The Rings: Part 2 (or The Matrix: Reloaded, anyone?), people are going to act like it's a genuine sequel.

-Tom
 

Terrell

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Win, I don't believe that explanation flies. Yes, TTT is a sequel. And it most certainly is a sequel to the mass movie-going public. Now, technically you may be correct. But to 95 percent of people, it is a sequel. And by the box office definition terms, it is the second film in a series. So by that description, it is a sequel. I could make the same argument for AOTC. But then it is a sequel.
I don't think these films make what their predecessor's do, but still bring in big bucks. By the way, welcome to the forum.:)
 

Matt Stone

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I agree Terrell. While TTT the book isn't a sequel, the movie certainly is...just as Empire Strikes Back is too.
As far as the gross...while I'm predicting TTT making slightly less than FotR, I wouldn't completely rule out a higher gross. We seem to be living in an age where age-old box office rules go straight out the window :)
Either way, I'm exited...because this will be one hell of a year for movies.
 

Terrell

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Neither would I Matt, for any of these sequels. Especially if they are good, or better than the originals. For many, that won't be hard to do for AOTC, since TPM was a disappointment to a lot of people. As for TTT and the second Harry Potter film, I haven't read the books. So I have no idea if they're better. But then it depends on how they're translated to film. I expect them to at least be on the level of the originals, and maybe better. I expect AOTC to be far superior than TPM, but it's got the easier task. So I expect less from each of these films, but like you it wouldn't surprise me if they made more.

As for TTT being a sequel, he may be correct that from a story standpoint, it's not a sequel. But from a movie aspect, it is a sequel, and the vast majority of fans will see it that way.
 

Matt Stone

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Yes...I agree with you on all counts. I'm pumped for AotC, and expect it to be a much better film than TPM. As far as TTT goes, it's actually my favorite book of the series. Most people like RotK and FotR, but not TTT...but I've always been partial to it, so I'm extremely excited to see what PJ does to it.
 

TerryRL

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Matt, this is what several of my friends who've read all three of the LOTR books have told me. That TTT is a great book, but not as good as either FOTR or ROTK. In most cases (with my friends that is), ROTK is the book deemed the best.

Still, I think TTT is going to be a huge hit at the box office, as is the second 'Harry Potter' movie. I think it was a shrewd move by WB to move the third Potter flick to a summer 2004 launch. It's widely regarded as the best book and it could come close to earning what the original movie did.
 

Matt Stone

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Yah...I agree. All of my friends prefer RotK to the rest too, but like I said...my fav is still TTT regardless.
 

rhett

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You guys have to remember that a sizable youth demographic will be lost to TTT because of the violent nature of the first film. I work at a local multiplex, and when FOTR was released, parents were taking their children to it like it was a Disney movie. Afterwards there was a legion of complaints on how the film could be released as PG with all the violence in it. As a result, I think TTT will be a lot less of a family experience than the first film was. This could definitely pose as a threat to the films BO.

In many cases, with several of the mainstream audience who saw the first film, the novelty has worn off, and the second time around there will be a lot less average moviegoers in attendance. This is similar to everyone's predictions for AOTC. Everyone wanted to go out and see TPM because of all the hype and praise the first three films in the series received. Similarily, everyone wanted to see LOTR based on the praise for the novels.

I don't understand how people can say that AOTC is going to perform lesser than TPM because the novelty has worn off slightly, but at the same time they can say TTT will eclipse FOTR at the BO. Sorry folks, it ain't gonna happen...
 

Malcolm R

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Nitpick: FOTR was rated "PG-13" which is only one step removed from "R". Disney movies are mostly "G" which is a significant difference and if parents haven't figured this out by now then they should be reported to social services since they obviously don't have the necessary intelligence or wisdom to raise children.
 

Matt Stone

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First thing rhett...I hope few parents were complaining about FotR getting a PG rating, since it didn't. The film recieved a PG-13 rating. (you beat me to it Malcom)

Secondly...in regards to your box office analysis you are ruling out the quality of the film. The argument regarding AotC making less than TPM, but TTT doing as well as FotR is applicable because TPM did much worse critically than FotR did...so that's not exactly a good comparison. In the end...I agree, sequels usually don't make as much as their predecessors regardless...but we can't rule it out.
 

Matt Pelham

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I also think TTT final grosses may depend on critical praise/oscars. If this turns out to be a better movie maybe it will earn the academy awards the first movie didn't. That could push it's total was past FOtR.
 

Terrell

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Well, AOTC has the toughest job of the three in outdoing it's predecessor. TPM made far more money, at least domestically than either of the other two did. So it will have a harder time passing the whopping 431 million dollars of TPM. I think AOTC will do better internationally than TPM did, but do less domestically. It wouldn't surprise me to see AOTC beat TPM worldwide, but come up short domestically. Again, I don't think that will happen. Although, I'm not sure the vast majority of movie-going Americans base their decisions on critic's reviews. I think word of mouth has as much or more effect than critic's do.
 

Chuck Mayer

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Terrell,
That sounds suspiciously like my post on the third page regarding AOTC worldwide BO ;)
As for critics, certainly word-of-mouth is more influential that a critic's opinion. But it's nice to see a film get consistent reviews...which I think AOTC will do. For your concerns of biased critics, AOTC has it easiest in that arena. HP and FOTR were very well-praised by a incredible cross-section of critics. Hence, higher expectations this time around. AOTC just has to be a more interesting and fun film than TPM to get some decent reviews. And that should not be too hard. From the score, it'll likely have some greater emotional depth as well. I foresee good reviews of AOTC. And I stick by my $400M domestic...this is Star Wars, folks. The only things I dread about AOTC being good and doing well are the dreaded smug attitudes of the fanboys (no one here)...hypocrisy knows no bounds (unlike Doc Holliday :D )!
Take care,
Chuck
 

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