OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (1 Viewer)

[Terrell]

I wish I felt the same Chuck. I'm not expecting overwhelmingly positive reviews across the board. Certainly, I think there will be far more positive reviews than TPM got because I think this will be a very good movie. But this film isn't gonna get the number of great reviews that the originals did. If you look back at rottentomatoes.com and their average of all critics ratings, both ANH and ESB got an astounding 97% positive reviews. 97 out of 100 critics gave both films positive and rave reviews. ROTJ basically got 80% positive reviews, which is still very good. I expect that no matter how good AOTC may be, the best we may see is 75% positive ratings. That is a best case scenarios in my book.
And yes, looking back at your other post, that does sound like what you said.

 

[Sean Oneil]

The Scorpion King opend with 36.2 million this weekend. Biggest opening total$ for an April film ever from what I understand. Off to a great start.. let's see how long it can maintain.

 

[Sam Davatchi]

I'm glad that I don't read the money topics anymore!

 

[Dana Fillhart]

Whoa, now how did this topic die off? Especially with Spiderman opening this weekend and AOTC 2 weeks hence.
Anybody who predicted >$250m for Spiderman...care to revise their estimates?

 

[Terrell]

I can't remember what I predicted for Spiderman. I think around 225 million. I'm sticking with that figure.

 

[TerryRL]

"Spider-Man" has a really good shot at earning the second biggest opening ever this weekend. I think it's going to debut in the area of $70-$75 million. I think it'll end up earning about $250 million domestically.

I've seen it and it's a cool movie. It does have it's problems, but, ultimately, it's a really fun "popcorn" flick. It'll easily rule the roost until AOTC opens on the 16th.

Despite the assured dominance of both "Spider-Man" and AOTC, I do think that "Unfaithful" will be a bigger hit than anyone is anticipating. And expect "The Sum of All Fears" to be a solid performer at the box office as well.

 

[James_Kiang]

I always enjoy box-office prediction threads. I ended up being fairly off with the Monsters Inc, Harry Potter, Fellowship ones but I'll still give this a shot. In no particular order, just as they come to me:
AOTC - $370 mil
Potentially, I could see myself being off by as much as $50 mil either way. Unfortunately, as much as I enjoy TPM, realistically I have to admit that there could be some backlash against the Star Wars franchise. Add to it the fact that this does not appear to be quite as kid friendly and I think that could negatively affect the repeat business.
The Two Towers - $300 mil
First off, I will admit that I have not read the books and that I have also managed to stay pretty spoiler-free on this one. I enjoyed Fellowship a huge amount and am looking forward to this one just a little less than AOTC - and that's probably because it's still over 6 months away. I don't see a huge drop-off, but I don't expect any significant growth in the audience either.
Harry Potter 2 - $300 mil
Another series I have not read and know even less about. For basically the same reasons as with TTT I don't see a huge difference between this one and the last (in terms of box-office just to be clear).
Spider-Man - $220 mil
This is actually a little higher than I think it could do. I want to say $180 mil or so, but I underestimated in the previous thread so I'm going high here. I was completely unimpressed by the first trailer but the more recent stuff has been looking better. Still don't like the look of the Goblin and some of the fight sequences I have seen look a little...off.
Men in Black 2 - $150
Thought about going higher here but decided to stick to my guns on this one. Sure, it has a chance of doing over $200 but I think they waited too long to capitalize on it.
Austin Powers 3 - $160
Could be off on this one as well. I just wonder if AP is getting old - I know it is for me.
Reign of Fire - $70
Had to include it because I am looking forward to it. I hope I am way off on this one but I don't think so. Dragons (especially in a non-fantasy setting), dreary world setting, lack of an A-list star: all things that I actually like but think will be major obstacles to box-office success. To be honest, I can see this one doing 45-50 mil; can't imagine it going over 100.
EDIT:missed a couple...
Minority Report - 200 mil
Pros: Tom Cruise, Steven Spielberg, action. Cons: Are people going to have interest in a Spielberg vision of a sci-fi future? As much as I did not enjoy A.I. I don't hold it against him so I'm there, and I think the movie will be good enough to draw a good number of people there as well.
Die Another Day - 140 mil
Bond films don't generally do much for me but it is pretty early to tell at this point. I don't think it can do too poorly but I also think a lot of people find Bond a little old.
Star Trek:Nemesis - 75 mil
As a previous poster said, this will primarily draw out the Star Trek fans and not much else. Still, it has the potential to reach 100 mil if it is good; unfortunately, the word I'm hearing isn't too flattering.

 

[Derek Faber]

I'll say Attack of the Clones-$395 mil. Another no-brainer, it won't make as much, but word of mouth will spread about it being better than TPM, which I have no doubt. It will almost break the 400 mil mark, but won't have the legs or 16 year hype.

Harry Potter 2 $300. No doubt here, it's going to be the Xmas hit.

The Two Towers-$290 mil. A sequel so close from the original can't hurt, as FOTR is still in people's minds. It will gross almost as much.

Spiderman-$250 mil. Due to it's long journery to the screen and millions of Spiderman fans dying for it to come, it will make a good run, with an awesome opening.

MIB II -$170 mil. This will make great money based on it's name alone, but will die down fast, like The Lost World, as it won't live up to hype.

Minority Report -$150. Should make good coin with Cruise and Spielberg together, but it will fade fast as most summer movies do.

Austin Powers 3 $120. Didn't like number two and the third looks even worse. One good movie, two bad sequels

 

[Seth Paxton]

After newer MIB2 trailers and Tommy Lee Jones' hilarious lines in them, I have renewed hope for this film.

I can now see it doing around $200m.

I think Sum of All Fears could also play near $200m

Austin Powers 3 - yeah, I can see a letdown into a $120-150m range (still very good coin)

I still think Spider-Man could get to $250m.

If the AOTC reviews start coming in as more positive than TPM, I could see that film jumping from $350m to $400m though it will still be tough.

 

[Seth Paxton]

BTW, TTT is NOT a sequel by any standards and Empire Strikes Back in not a good comparison in that regard.

"But they are trilogies..."

Well, no. Star Wars played as an individual film and don't let Lucas spin make you believe that everyone expected to be filming a sequel to it. Lucas loved SAT seriel reels from when he was a kid (thus the whole Indy Jones thing too) and gave Star Wars that sort of "running series" feel with it's opening (even pre-Ep 4 title changes).

However, the film has 100% resolution with the typical outlet for a sequel (the bad guy is defeated but gets away maybe).

FOTR has a resolution, but nobody saw it (the fellowship comes together and is then broken apart) because they all saw the non-ending of the overall story.

In that way a much more accurate comparison would be Return of the Jedi following Empire when another film WAS CERTAINLY being made and the narrative played it like that. All ends were left open, nothing was resolved, and it was clear that the audience would need to return for the 3rd film to get some answers.

Now look at the BO between Empire and Jedi. 3 years later and it made $20m more (265 to 245 without reissues).

That is a much more accurate comparison in terms of the relationship between the films.

It does NOT matter if people know it's one giant story. What matters is that at the end they are left with questions as to what is going to happen. Some might resent it, but many others are going to have great curiousity to find out. All the major narrative threads are left hanging wide open.

After Star Wars no one needed to come find out answers in Empire. ESB was about "more of what you loved in the first one" which is what standard sequels are all about. Even Godfather 2 is like this as the original had a definitive narrative conclusion.

 

[Terrell]

Well, actually Lucas had the intention to make a sequel. The problem was Lucas didn't know if the first film would make enough money to justify a sequel. But he had the intention to make a sequel. He made the film to succeed as one part. If you remember in Star Wars, Vader escaped the battle, steadied his ship, and flew off. So I'd have to disagree Seth. While it may not be 100% identical to how LOTR is set up, I'd most definitely consider Star Wars a trilogy.

As for LOTR and TTT, while technically TTT might not be a sequel, the movie industry and the overwhelming majority if fans think of it that way. And since it's the second film in the series, in terms of box-office, I think it works the same way. I'd say TTT makes a bit less than FOTR, just as AOTC will make less than TPM.

That's my take on it. It wouldn't surprise me to see both films outdo their predecessors. I'd bet against it.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Terrell, I agree on most parts. However, SW had an ending as well as a sequel valve. LOTR had a resolution, not a real ending. Not to mention that public knowledge on LOTR has risen dramatically on LOTR since the release of FOTR. Much like people know there is a Episode III, people know there are two films left in the story. So, you and Seth are BOTH right.
No change in my Spidey prediction, Dana. I expect great things! Many casual movie-goers I know are VERY excited for Spidey I also stand by my $400M AOTC take.
Take care,
Chuck
By the by, my E.T. prediction was $40M...tremble at my vast, barely tapped knowledge and prescience!!!!!!

 

[Terrell]

I've since reduced my AOTC prediction from 375 million to 350 million.

 

[CoreyII]

I haven't had a chance to read all five pages but judging from the first page many people seem to be selling Spidey a bit short. I going to be in the minority and put Spiderman somewhere betwewen 275 million to 300 million.

Don't think that Star Wars is going to be the death of Spidey come May 16. On the contrary Spider-Man just might benefit from Star Wars, afterall not everyone is going to get in and see Attack of the Clones on opening weekend and those who don't, chances are they're going to see the that other blockbuster.

Remember back in 1999 when Phantom Menace opened the Matrix and the Mummy both still did good bussiness at the box office. I think when ATOC opens and sells out the residual crowd will go to see Spider-Man and that film will be sold out also.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Spider-Man outgrossed Star Wars. Afterall Spider-Man is a whole new franchise just getting started so it doesn't have the expectations of previous films to live up to like Star Wars. Also Spider-Man is being marketed very heavy to consumers. I can't go anywhere without seeing somekind of advertisement for Spider-Man. In all fairness Star Wars doesn't need a lot of heavy marketing.

Spider-Man - 275 - 300 million (possibly more)

Star Wars - 400 million (possibly more)

Two Towers - over 300 million

Harry Potter - 250 - 300 million

 

[Brian Lawrence]

Spider-Man $185m
Star Wars $325m
Two Towers $225m
Harry Potter $200m (Potter-mania is dying down)

 

[Matt Stone]

Mark my words...I will eat my Star Wars Definitive Collection LD set if Spider-Man makes more than 250.

 

[Wes C]

AOTC - 360 mil
TTT - 320 mil
Spidey - 250 mil
Potter - 215 mil
Minority R - 200 mil
Sum of all fears - 180 mil
Powers 3 - 170 mil
MIB II - 160 mil

 

[Matt Pelham]

Matt, instead of eating it, could you please send it to me? I think when the dust settles down Spiderman will have right around 250, maybe even a tad bit more.

 

[John Berggren]

1) Spider-Man $250M
A seriously awaited superhero movie high on action and big on pre-release buzz. I expect this to fare better than X-men did last year. Probably netting the first "Batman" like figures in years for a comic book film.
2) Star Wars Episode II : Attack of the Clones $400M
This is entirely based on my expectations for a better film, and the fact that review prints have "oops" been leaked. Lucasfilm is confident about this one. We won't see the same numbers on opening weekend as we did with Phantom, but I think this one will have longer legs.
If the film sucks, round down to $350M. I don't expect it to.
3) Goldmember $200M
After all the MGM crap... If I have to make it happen myself.
4) Men in Black II $200M
Strike when the iron's hot? Nope... they didn't. But they did wait long enough for the storyline to be worthwhile. Will Smith comes back kicking.
4a) Star Trek : Nemesis $100M
With a fall release, Nemesis does well. Stronger, more action oriented story than Insurrection, and perfect fit with summer hits waning and Thanksgiving season unstarted.
5) Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $300M
On target with the first release. With no Pixar film this year, Harry can have the fall basically to himself.
6) The Two Towers $320M
I expect TTT to eek out just a bit more cash than the first film did. I know people complained about the film because they were expecting the Death Star to explode, but I think that minority will be overwhelmed by those that understand the first film. I also expect the one-two punch of Fellowship on DVD to generate added interest in this film, both by original theater goers, and first time viewers on DVD. The DVD releases for Fellowship were planned perfectly to support TTT.
7) Die Another Day $140M
I hope to god this is better than The World is Not Enough.
8) Star Trek : Nemesis $75M
Star Trek gets released alongside The Two Towers and Die Another Day. Dies a quick death. Trek fans only.

 

[Chuck Anstey]

I'd better get my guesses in now.

1. Spiderman : 200M

2. AOTC : 350M

3. HPCOS: 250M - Fickle target audience but HP still has some draw.

4. TTT: 200M - 30% of those who saw FOTR will not be back to watch any more LOTR. Another bunch will wait for the video since it is just the middle 3 hours of a 9 hour movie.

Chuck Anstey