OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT...

Discussion in 'Archived Threads 2001-2004' started by Dana Fillhart, Apr 9, 2002.

  1. Matt Stone

    Matt Stone Lead Actor

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    Maybe we can get DonnyG back here so we can hear more "EVERY SHOW WAS SOLD OUT AT MY THEATER!" posts. [​IMG]
     
  2. James_Kiang

    James_Kiang Screenwriter

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  3. TerryRL

    TerryRL Producer

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    'Chamber of Secrets' has so far tallied $519 million overseas, bringing it's worldwide total to an eye-popping $771 million. TTT has so far earned $560 million worldwide. TTT has already passed the domestic total of COS and it'll be interesting to see if it does the same overseas.
     
  4. Brian W.

    Brian W. Screenwriter

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    Anyone care to guess as to when TTT will cross $300 million? It made almost $61 million last week, Monday-Sunday. If it drops no more than 36% this week, it will cross $300 million by the end of Sunday.

    However, I'm going to guess it will drop a little more than that, since a new teen flick, "Just Married," is opening wide on Friday. I'm guessing $300 mil. will happen the following Wednesday, January 15th.
     
  5. Edwin Pereyra

    Edwin Pereyra Producer

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  6. Brian W.

    Brian W. Screenwriter

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    Well, I've calculated a minimum final total for TTT's US box office. It's based on a 35% depreciation rate, and the first film's weekly drops rarely approached that, so that's why I say it's a minimum.

    Rounding last week's total to a flat $61 million, an average weekly drop of 35% would earn it at least $377 million at the box office by the end of April. Like I said, FOTR rarely dropped 35%, so it should do a little better than that.

    It probably can't reach $400 mil., though. Even if it could maintain a constant 30% depreciation rate, it would fall about half a million short. But you never know.
     
  7. Dana Fillhart

    Dana Fillhart Supporting Actor

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    Thanks for that calculation, Brian. I'm betting that TTT will depreciate in the 30's for a few more weekends until it levels to the low 2's to high 1's per weekend, and stays at that level for several weeks. If it's significantly over $360M by that point, and if that point is at least pushed back to the end of February, there's a decent chance it might make $400M taking in $4M/week for the next couple of months. You're right, though, it'll be close!
    Also, there's a new thread for discussing 2003 Box Office predictions and other BO-related stuff. It's here. TTT is 2002, but its BO effect can be talked about both there and here.
    [/Obligatory thread sales pitch] [​IMG]
     
  8. Brian W.

    Brian W. Screenwriter

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  9. Claire Panke

    Claire Panke Second Unit

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    Ummm, Edwin,watch that "older people in their 40's or 50's" stuff.

    "Older people" to me are persons in their 60's or 70's!

    BTW, boomers were the generation that first made LOTR hugely popular - you do know that, right??? So it's not too surprising they (we) turn up at TTT.
     
  10. Tom Ryan

    Tom Ryan Screenwriter

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  11. Matt Stone

    Matt Stone Lead Actor

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    Haha...you people are all old [​IMG]
    ...j/k
     
  12. Brian W.

    Brian W. Screenwriter

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    Whew, I didn't take into account the New Year's holiday last week for my TTT estimate. Nor was I prepared for the HUGE weekday drops this week (though I should have been--they happened last year). Even if it only drops 20% this weekend (unlikely, since it's losing 4% of its theaters), it would only pull in $20 million for the weekend, for a total week's gross of only about $27 million -- and that's optimistic.

    Even at that, it would be over a 50% drop from last week, which would be in line with FOTR for that week last year. I think we're looking more in the range of an $18 million gross for the weekend, plus about $7-8 million from Mon-Thurs. So basically its full week gross will be about equal to the previous weekend's.

    Anyway, TTT ain't getting to $300 million till next weekend.
     

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