OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (1 Viewer)

[Brian Lawrence]

Potter still holds the record for the widest opening at 3,674 theaters. Spiderman's theater count is around 3,615.

True but how many screens are those theaters showing the film on. Potter Played on 5 screen at my local Multiplex, Spider man is on 7 !!!
When Phantom Menace opened in 1999 it was on 3 or 4 screens. I have no doubt that Ep. II will be on at least 6 or more likely 8.
It drives me nuts. Back in the 70's my nearest multi-plex was in Seekonk. They only had 8 screens but always had at least 7 differant movies playing. B-movies, & even some foreign films. Now I have a 32 screen mega-plex and they did not even bother to get Amelie (spelling?). The more screens they get, the less there seems to be to choose from.

 

[Terrell]

My Regal theater showed Spidey on 4 or 5 screens. They showed TPM on 5 screens.

 

[Tom Ryan]

AOTC will be viewed as a failure if it doesn't beat Spidey simply because, for a long time, AOTC has completely overshadowed Spidey. Everyone was saying how Star Wars was going to crush Spider-Man after that first two weeks. Now the underdog might have the upper hand, which is embarrassing. Still, I predict much bigger legs for Star Wars than Spidey, which is why I'm still predicting a $250 million gross for Spider-Man despite its huge opening (this was bumped up from $220 million); it'll drop off remarkably after Star Wars hits.

-Tom

 

[Terrell]

Those people that said that might consider it a failure. But their opinion of it as a failure doesn't make it so. The general public and media certainly have not said that. And they most assuredly won't consider it a failure. Again, I see no rule written anywhere that a Star Wars film has to have the highest opening box office to be considered a success. And there is no doubt that AOTC hasn't overshadowed Spider-Man in the media. In fact, Spider-Man has gotten a hell of a lot more hype and press than AOTC.

Now, if those people want to consider it a failure, so be it. Then TPM was a failure under those conditions. And Episode III will be a failure in the future. LOTR were also failures under that viewpoint. How anyone can view AOTC as a failure if it doesn't beat Spider-Man's opening is mindboggling. If the film opens less than Spider-Man, but continues to have better legs and ultimately makes 400 million dollars domestically, I guess then we should continue to consider it a failure even at that point. Titanic must be a monumental failure. Quite frankly I think that notion is utter BS!

Now the underdog might have the upper hand, which is embarrassing.

No disrespect Tom, But I find that statement silly. If you can show me where anyone wrote a rule that Star Wars films had to rule the roost in box office in order to keep from being embarassed, I'd like to see it. The film hasn't even been released yet and you're claiming it's embarassing that Spider-Man might make more.

 

[Tino]

These numbers are staggering! Spiderman will pass $200 million this coming weekend, so a final gross in excess of $300 million is pretty much assured.
WOW!

 

[Tom Ryan]

No disrespect Tom, But I find that statement silly. If you can show me where anyone wrote a rule that Star Wars films had to rule the roost in box office in order to keep from being embarassed, I'd like to see it. The film hasn't even been released yet and you're claiming it's embarassing that Spider-Man might make more.

It's not a written rule. It's not even a rule. It's about expectations. Every single Star Wars film has been an absolute juggernaut. Every single Star Wars film has been the highest grossing film of the year. If it's Star Wars, everybody else better watch out or get rolled over. It will be somewhat embarrassing if it gets beaten by Spider-Man.

And when I said failure, I meant as far as opening box office goes. Certainly I think AOTC will have much better legs and be the overall box office champion for the year.

-Tom

 

[Terrell]

Then if you think that, why does opening box office matter? I can tell you with certainty that it's not gonna beat Spider-Man. So you might as well consider it a failure. Quite frankly, I'd rather the film have great legs than a gargantuan opening. How many times have we seen mediocre film open huge, only to fizzle out in a cloud of smoke within 3 weeks?

I'll personally judge it on it's total box office. The opening doesn't mean a whole lot, as long as it's big.

 

[Tom Ryan]

Truth be told, opening box office really doesn't matter that much...to me. But people will still see AOTC as a failure if it doesn't beat Spider-Man.

-Tom

 

[Terrell]

I would agree with you on that. Some will consider it a failure if it makes 200 million opening weekend. When it comes to Star Wars, that's just the way some people are.

 

[Malcolm R]

It's big news to the press, too. They love to report on big opening grosses, but you seldom hear much about the film after opening weekend.

If AOTC doesn't beat SM, they'll have a field day reporting on the box office "failure" of the latest SW movie.

 

[Terrell]

Well, all I can say is get ready for it being a failure. Because it won't beat those numbers.

 

[Matt Stone]

I don't think so. They will most likely compare it directly to TPMs opening weekend...Rarely do I hear anyone say that a films weekend gross is a failure if it comes in at number 1.

 

[Sean Oneil]

I may even have to revise my original 286 million estimate for Spiderman.. though I won't do that just yet. I feel like that number will be pretty close to the final take.

 

[Matt Pelham]

Is it getting to the point that films make so damn much money in their first three days, is because hardly anybody gets turned away due to sellouts.

I don't know about that. Here at my local theater they had Spiderman playing on 6 screens, and EVERY single show sold out Friday, Saturday, and amazingly Sunday as well.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Ahhh...the quick degeneration into SW vs. the world. This is one of my favorite games
AOTC will do just fine...as for opinions, I resent the comments that AOTC is the main course while Spidey is just the appetizer. That theory applies to you and the TF.N nuts...not the world. Most of coworkers were very excited about Spider-Man, and could give a fig about SW. They are casual moviegoers...and the casual moviegoers love Spidey apparently. Even when AOTC crushes the BO, with rave reviews (Terrell, you must trust me ), it will not dull my appreciation of the film that SM is, or the records it smashed. Of course AOTC will win the BO this year...it has the greatest number of rabid fans, who would see it ten times each whether it was The Ewok Adventure or The Empire Strikes Back.
As people have said, they REALLY aren't competing with each other. If we want to get fanboyish ( ), Spidey would kick Ani's pasty little arse, AND his Jedi buddies Both films are doing quite well at the BO. When AOTC comes out, it will completely own the BO, but Spidey will not go away. When SW slips to number two, Spidey will be right behind it. And when the dust settles, who gives a S*** about BO.
Besides, Attack of the Clones has a great story, I loved it in 1995...when it was called Judge Dredd :p)
Take care,
Chuck

 

[Mark Zimmer]

I don't think Spidey has the rewatchability thing going to give it big legs. I've been a huge Spider-Man fan for over 3 decades, and I liked the movie, but I doubt I'll see it again before the DVD comes out. If I, Spidey fan extraordinaire, am not going more than once, what are the odds of other people being repeat business in sizable numbers?

Cf. Lord of the Rings, which I saw 5 times, and even TPM I sat through twice. I expect 2 or 3 showings for AOTC, even if it's marginal.

 

[JohnE]

I expect 2 or 3 showings for AOTC, even if it's marginal.

What is it about the SW films that seem to demand repeat viewings?

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

I don't think Spidey has the rewatchability thing going to give it big legs. ... If I, Spidey fan extraordinaire, am not going more than once, what are the odds of other people being repeat business in sizable numbers?

Don't expect others to do just exactly as you would. I already know other Spidey fans who will be going for second viewings and possibly more.

~Edwin

 

[Dana Fillhart]

Hmm...looks like we're not the only game in town on making a guess between Spidey and Star Wars...
http://www.cnn.com/POLL/results/122831.html

 

[TerryRL]

Variety reported that AOTC will debut in 3,300 theaters (the 5,000 prints will be showing on about 6,000 screens) when it opens next week. This will be the widest release ever for a SW film.

Judging from the reaction select footage got at last weekend's Celebration II, as well as the solid reviews thus far, expect AOTC to have strong repeat business.

Next weekend, "Spider-Man" will look to take the biggest second weekend record away from 'Harry Potter' as well. 'Potter' earned over $57 million in it's second frame, "Spider-Man" could become the first movie to earn over $60 million in back to back weekends.