Two opposing views on who will win the HD battle (1 Viewer)

[Rob_Walton]

Being more difficult to produce wasn't the rallying cry of the HD DVD zealots. Science Fiction was the term used I believe, which has now been shown to be nonsense. Again, when has anyone in the BDA claimed that BD production is as straightforward as DVD, or that it won't take time to reach cost parity? The claims of the HD DVD lunatic fringe were that BD 50 wasn't going to arrive this year, that it was cost prohibative, and even that it simply wasn't possible! Are you saying these predictions have been born out by the facts?!

 

[Manus]

" Right now doesn't even matter. I'm talking long term "

I love it when these 'debates' descend into outright comedy. Given that Sd Dvd is barely 10 years old and is being replaced what makes you believe that either of these formats actually has a 'long-term' future before HD downloading or 4k or some such development will replace them both ??

Also, I admire your faith that BD studios will 'do the right thing' and use the extra capacity to its best advantage. In the SD Dvd world ,BD champions Sony and Fox are 2 of the worst culprits for releasing multiple editions of movies with only a couple of minutes of new footage or a different selection of extras to differentiate between them. Seamless Branching has been available on SD Dvd for a number of years yet apart from the T2 implementation I cant recall enough other examples to think that it became a 'norm' for the format.

I remain sceptical that companies will forego the revenue streams available from selling movie soundtracks seperately . As with seamless branching , I dont think it ever became so common place as to assume that it will do so now or in 'the future' , certainly not with the above named studios anyway.

" How so?
Picture quality is the same.
There are more uncompressed soundtracks on BD.
BD has more studios.
BD has more players.
Interactivity? Fox's releases are less than a month away.
Players sold...yeah. Ask again Nov 18th though "

To paraphrase a smarter man than me, ' Not everything that counts can be counted , and not everything that can be counted , counts.' I will never understand how any adult can actually fall in love with a 'format' Its always, next week , next month , wait until lasers are freely available , wait till PS3 is available . Anything to deny the present.

Joe Public doesnt buy players just for the 'longer term' or for potential benefits that may or may not be realised , they mostly buy them for now, for immediate visible/audible benefits that they perceive to be worthwhile.

The BD group could not have mismanaged the (pre) launch any more if they tried. That combined with the insulting statements emanating from executives at Fox,Sony and Pioneer and nasty DRM possibilities have convinced many that paying twice the price of entry is simply not worth it no matter how many exclusive studios they have on board.

My .02c

~M~

 

[Cees Alons]

Good post, Manus!


To be frank: I read a lot of posts on this forum and except a very few (which we dealt with), I have not met with members who could or should be characterized like you do.

There are some enthusiastic members who bought a HD DVD player and many HD DVD discs and tell us about that; some go as far as "advertising" that in their signature or something like that, but in all honesty your qualifications do not apply to them (and I'm not saying you implied that: just that their message can be taken seriously even by you).

However, when it comes to BD.... Several "advocates" (and very outspoken, frequently posting ones) don't even own a BD player at all! And I wonder if they already bought even 1 of the released BD discs!

Still, I still wouldn't want to use the words "zealots" or "lunatic fringe" in those format-lovers cases either. It's better to use real arguments. And even a "zealot" could be right, couldn't (s)he?


Cees

 

[Shawn Perron]

Courtesy of David Boulet from here at HTF. By the way, the Amir he refers to is one of the guys in charge of VC1/HD-DVD over at Microsoft.

In adition to LOTR, something like Beauty and the Beast that contained mulitple versions of the same movie in the same stream would have video just as bad as the current DVD. Anytime a studio will try and get too agressive with the amount of material placed on the discs we will be looking a compromise in picture quality or compromise in content. The number one problem with DVD will not be going away if HD-DVD is the standard.

------

Editted my post so you can totally disregard it instead just of mostly disregarding it Cees.

 

[Cees Alons]

Which is a telling subset of the BD releases that actually did come out. The others were worse (the first batch), but could not be compared alas to the same movie on HD DVD.

Finally, it seems, though, that the newest BD releases are on par with the quality we're getting used to on HD DVD.


Cees


PS: And, strictly speaking, your claim isn't fully true either. The first Warner releases on BD were MPEG-2, while the HD DVD counterpart had been VC-1. So the PQ wasn't exactly the as good and they took much more space.
C.

 

[Rob_Walton]

Did you just ignore the arguments in my post to take issue with my use of a few words, and then chastise me for not using real arguements? Do you have nothing to say about the claims by some HD DVD supporters that BD50 was science fiction?

Though I'm confused why you limit the presense of HD DVD supporters to only this site, when the largest pool of information to be found in this area of interest is on AVS (no offense to HTF). Even a cursory look around will show a level of mania consistant, i think, with the use of words like zealot. (how else to describe someone who goes to hardware stores and hands out his homemade pro-hd dvd flyers!) That these individuals (like the petition fella) are not welcome on HTF is all to the good, but it doesn't make them cease to exist. Or CEES to exist!

And are there some nutters on the BD side as well? Hell yeah, every group attracts these sorts. I give their statements and predictions as much credence as the HD DVD zealots.

BTW I have no issue with anyone advertising their enjoyment of a product or their dismay with one, if that's what they've found. It's the people who spread baseless rumours, or outright lies, that is so annoying.

 

[Cees Alons]

That's no offense at all.

OK, I see your point.
But in my opinion, you really have to refute them there, if that's what you want, because discussions are getting very difficult if we even have to answer to unnamed quoted messages on other forums here.
This is especially true if it takes the form of (mild) accusations.

Yes, people on other forums may have acted like zealots (and perhaps there's a BD-zealots forum too, somewhere), and a very few acted like that here too (both formats), but we really cannot use even their sheer existence on those other forums to make proper arguments on our forum, IMO.

But thanks for explaining what you meant. I really got confused (almost to the point of getting angry ).


Cees

 

[Rob_Walton]

Hmm, thanks for your understanding, but I get the feeling I'm acting like a total nonce and not even realising it. Sorry if I am. It's a personality flaw that needs some work. My only excuse is that it's been a long hard month. Not that that's really a valid excuse...

I'll be quiet now.

 

[Cees Alons]

Cees

 

[MarekM]

Don't worry Cees I will soon outnumber you hehe in both formats

Marek

 

[Robert Crawford]

Rob,
In fairness to all, there has been supporters of each format that have made some outrageous comments on this forum about the competing format's future or lackof. As of now, such unfortunate and nonvalue-added dialogue has lessen on the forum as more people seem to be accepting the fact that this format war might be a long war and that it is a distinct possibility that a true format winner might not emerge from it. Only time will tell what's really going to happen with either format.

As far as AVS, we have enough trouble keeping our own house in order without getting involved with other boards posting activity and addressing them here.





Crawdaddy

 

[ChristopherDAC]

It seems to me that this is an argument about nothing.

My judgement is that Blu-Ray is the format with technological superiority on its side, and for that reason I would rather see it become the dominant recorded HD delivery format. I also think that it is going to have advantages arising from multiple uses : transport- and disc-production lines are being put into service not only for movie discs and their players, but also for the PS3 game system, and Sony's XDCAM system (which, if my contacts with broadcast professionals are at all indicative, has a strong chance of becoming the de-facto standard HD recording medium for broadcast applications).

On the other hand, what if I'm wrong? Nothing happens. The worst that could happen is that, if something I wanted enough to buy into a HD system had come out on Blu-Ray (which is what, as I have said, I'm waiting for), and then BD was immediately discontinued, I'd have to buy HD-DVDs eventually, until which time I'd be stuck with a player and one disc. That makes me no worse off than a fellow with a thousand-dollar D-VHS deck and one forty-dollar tape; better, in fact, since his tape will wear out.

 

[Cees Alons]

That was my initial judgement too. But then I started to realize that the 'superiority" only lies in the higher amount of Gigabytes per surface. That's fine for a set of specs, but we still have to see if the possibilities of producing healthy DVDs according to those specs indeed leads to a superior product (e.g. the physical specs kept changing: a caddy, not a caddy but a special layer, no such a layer at all).

Producing players seemed to pose a bit of a problem too, at least to some manufacturers.

Furthermore, this is only one level. The Blu-ray film discs also include a set of software specs. Unfortunately that's when some ugliness started to show its head. Without starting the same discussion again here, let's just say that anyone who wants to judge the two formats needs to take those differences into account too. Especially the BD+ specs.

And I won't be speaking too much now of certain decisions of studios, like the intention to use a specific image compression codec only, or the decision not to release on one of the two formats, but they certainly have to be taken into account by serious consumers.

And then the prices....

Bottom line: the discussion is certainly NOT about nothing, from a consumers point of view.
In my opinion a consumer needs to weigh several aspects, including his/her personal situation and choose accordingly. It would be silly to declare one of the formats "the best" on all points and proclaim it "the winner" before all those aspects are clear enough.


Cees

 

[ppltd]

It is? Almost every review (note the word almost) where the same film has been reviewed in both BD and HD, the HD release has been given a slight edge. According to the reviewers, a more 3 dimensional look. And in almost every case, the HD has been rated more consistant in it's transfer.

And I agree, wait until November 17th. The 360 add-on will have been on the market for 10 days at that time.

 

[ChristopherDAC]

Mountain, molehill. Molehill, mountain.

I don't like the so-called "content protection" apparatus on either format, not in the slightest, but my judgement is that the two implementations are about the same in their real capabilities and effects. Notice I'm not opposing "real" to "theoretical" in the wrong sense some use, when they say "Everybody knows that, in practice, they'll never do that" ; I'm talking about what could actually happen. "BD+" is just one more layer of nonsense, which doesn't make much difference after the AACS and so forth are piled on, especially since (in my estimation) it's something of a paper tiger.

I prefer Blu-Ray for the greater disc capacity. I prefer Blu-Ray for the greater data-transfer rate. I prefer Blu-Ray for the absence of data and stream packetizing constraints carried over from DVD. (The first two advantages are applicable to computer hardware as well as movie players, and the possible addition of additional layers to get capacity in the hundreds of gigabytes seems like another, but I know enough not to predict what the PC market will do, or for how long.) From my perspective, these are points of clear technical superiority.
Unless both PS3 and XDCAM both flop, there will be reasons beyond the movie players to continue production of Blu-Ray equipment and discs, and this I think is an important point. If one imagines there being no market at all for high-definition videodiscs, and asks the question "does Format X continue to exist?", the answer seems to be "yes" in the case of BD, and "no" in the case of HD-DVD. I think this can make a difference in the marketplace, because (given the uncertain future of both formats at this time) it suggests that the BD group has an incentive to keep working on their product even if the initial showing is poor. Against this is the fact that the HD DVD group doesn't need to do as much work, since their product is more firmly based in the prior art.

Honestly, judging anything by the first few months is dangerous. If I'm not mistaken, the Philips BD player is priced the same as the new Toshiba HD DVD model, and with one moving down and the other moving up, price parity isn't inconceivable. My opinion is that the disc producers will always do things wrong, and the more important question is how often they do things right. My judgement is that it should be easier to do things right with BD than HD DVD, because there's more margin for error (after all, if the early MPEG-II BDs looked ugly, think how they would have looked at HD DVD bitrates). If you make the moral hazard argument, that more margin for error encourages taking less care, I won't stop you, but my opinion is that people will make all the mistakes they can, regardless.

If none of these points takes place, and HD DVD becomes the dominant format, what then? I can't imagine any way in which I would be harmed.

 

[Lou Sytsma]

The 50 GB vs 30 GB is a nonissue. How many movies require more than 25 GB, much less 30GB? And the assumption with the 50 GB discs that all that real estate would be used for just the movie is probably a false one. Add in some extras and it is highly doubtful that will occur. BR releases would look awful silly coming out with 2 disc editions after claiming how much storage they have compared to HD DVD.

The real issue is cost and it is here that BR is getting creamed - not mention the spotty initial disc releases.

 

[Shawn Perron]

Well said Christopher. I look forward to thier responses that HD-DVD has looked better then BD for a few months and who cares about a better technical future since it looks just fine now.

Reminds me of some people I work with in the security industry. They don't want to look at "worst case" scenarios. Everything is working fine now and don't worry about it, that will never happen. So to save a few bucks now they ignore the potential problems. Guess what eventually happens? The worst case scenario comes to pass, costing multiples more then being prepared would have been. I'm sure every industry has stories about people pinching pennies and the inevitable horrors that come to pass. It's funny what people will do to save a few bucks.

 

[Cees Alons]

Excellent Christopher. You're making my point. Indeed you agree now that the discussion is certainly NOT about nothing, and that each customer has to weigh to his/her own liking.

You tell us your weighing here, and the way you look at some of the aspects, fine, some (like Shawn apparently) will agree, but many of us will not agree. Which is fine too.

So the bottom line still is: the discussion is NOT about nothing (like you were stating first), but about each and everyone's opinion about several aspects.


Cees

 

[Shawn Perron]

that someone in between his 2 posts was making a mountain out of a molehill. i.e. someone was reading too much into too little.

 

[JackKay]

The ones who decied who wins this war is not the Studios or the hardware manufactures or the retailers. It will be decieded by the consumers. And that will take a little more time.