Should Apple purchase Tesla? (1 Viewer)

[Carlo_M]

I know next to nothing about the stock market (actually, maybe you can strike "next to" from that statement). But something about this Tesla thing smells a little "Subprime Mortgage Crisis/Black Monday" to me. No ill will to Tesla, just something doesn't feel right about their stock price's sudden meteoric rise.

 

[Ted Todorov]

I know next to nothing about the stock market (actually, maybe you can strike "next to" from that statement). But something about this Tesla thing smells a little "Subprime Mortgage Crisis/Black Monday" to me. No ill will to Tesla, just something doesn't feel right about their stock price's sudden meteoric rise.

I agree, certainly about the market as a whole, not just Tesla -- has that ring to me too. For Tesla in particular the justification is one of, or some combination of the following *possible distant future events* but ones with far from having even a 50/50 chance:
1) Tesla wins L4/L5 automated driving race, and it ends up running not just on Teslas but 3rd party EVs (robo taxis come true).
2) Tesla's solar energy business grabs a big chunk of the power industry
3) Tesla's battery business establishes an insurmountable lead in range, capacity/ long lifespan and starts selling to 3rd part EVs
4) Tesla's car insurance business establishes a monopoly for Tesla owners

Keep in mind though, EVEN if some of these future things come true, Tesla's stock would be likely to crash along with the rest of the market when/if that happens, so only someone willing to hold it for a long time can truly reap the (possible) benefits.

I do think one reason so many people are betting on Tesla right now is how hopeless all its legacy rivals seem to be in the EV business

 

[Ted Todorov]

The one current negative on Tesla — Google Maps (it uses them - no way to switch you car to Apple Maps).
The good news: https://insideevs.com/news/410425/tesla-maps-driving-data-elon-musk/
Tesla intends to dump Google Maps in the future.
To anyone asking “but wait, Google Maps is better than Apple Maps”. Bzzt - wrong. I’m sure they were in the past, but these days with NY State, NJ, and Sardinia, Italy tested for driving directions in the last couple of years, Google has repeatedly flopped to Apple.

The latest was driving to lake Awosting (next to Minnewaska) and foolishly believing Google Maps without double checking on Apple Maps — it turned an under 2 hour drive into an over 3 hour drive (and we had to switch to Apple Maps at the end to be rescued from the middle of nowhere that Google took us to).
Our previous upstate trip, Google had no clue about an upstate Red Onion restaurant— Apple Maps had no problem along with accurate directions with good traffic jam avoidance.

 

[Ted Todorov]

The forever in that near, five years from now, future Apple Car has resurfaced: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-autos-exclusive-idUSKBN28V2PY

Not sure if we should be taking it seriously, but as the resident pro-Tesla person, I am all for it. Real competition in the EV/Full Self Driving/battery improvement space is very, very welcome.

 

[Sam Posten]

 

[DaveF]

Musi: Yo Tim Apple, I can haz you buy Tesla? But it will stay Tesla. With me in charge? And absolutely no Apple interference or technology involved? And I reserve the right to Twitter that people are pedophiles? Sound good?

Cook: <phone hangs up>
Cook to engineer: We need a block unknown callers feature in iOS, now!!!

 

[Ted Todorov]

While why Tim Apple would have wanted nothing to do with buying Tesla is obvious, a more relevant question is will not Apple, but any legacy car company be able to catch up with Tesla 5 years from now.
Yes, Ford’s soon to be a real thing Mustang Mach E has been getting good reviews and is likely more than a concept car. But Ford‘s number one problem along with all other legacy car makers is car dealerships. Most of their profits comes from car service/maintenance - not the initial sale, thus selling EVs instead of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars is strongly against their interest. What happens is every customer asking for an EV gets dissuaded as much as possible by the dealers.
Thus, the failure of the Chevy Bolt. Keep in mind, when it was originally released it was a very serious competitor to Tesla based on price/quality. But it was not in any real way improved in the subsequent years and Chevy dealers did their best to torpedo it. Until the US based legacy car companies get rid of car dealerships they will continue to lose to Tesla.

442. Is it Too Late for General Motors to Go Electric? — Freakonomics Radio — Overcast

overcast.fm

this was a very good interview with GM CEO Mary Barra, who said all the right words about how serious she is about EVS, but she clearly implied she is not going to challenge GMs car dealerships: they are viewed as set in stone

 

[Ted Todorov]

So lots of recent rumors on the future "Apple Car". The latest from MacRumors (based on a Bloomberg article): https://www.macrumors.com/2021/02/19/apple-car-lidar-sensors-active-talks/

I'm totally fascinated by the Waymo (LiDAR based) self driving vs. Tesla's cameras + data + their in-house system on a chip (SoC) approach -- who will win the self-driving battle?

 

[Ted Todorov]

From today’s John Gruber/Ben Thompson podcast Dithering:
They are predicting that the new CarPlay is an indication that Apple’s car future aka Project Titan will be software only. I have no prediction on the that but from a purely business standpoint — who needs the distraction and the headaches.

 

[DaveF]

I listen to The Talk Show regulary, have almost form its start (back when it was co-hosted with Dan Benjamin on the former network).

I don't subscribe to Dithering.

I gather you find that a good show for the cost?

 

[Sam Posten]

Apple remains really smart to have nothing to do with Tesla. Any good will I have had for the company or Musk has evaporated with his twitter purchase foolishness. And all the more glad I’m headed to an F150 Lightning. Will I change my mind in a few years? Perhaps. But I’d bet against it today.

 

[DaveF]

I'm in the "won't buy a car without CarPlay" camp referenced in the WWDC presentation. So Tesla and ilk are out for me.

 

[Sam Posten]

And I’m left hanging wondering if my 2023 model year f150 will have the new CarPlay hotness or the old and busted (not really) version

 

[DaveF]

And I’m left hanging wondering if my 2023 model year f150 will have the new CarPlay hotness or the old and busted (not really) version

Not a chance. That’s my wager.

I think it’s an open question if any car ever will have this full CarPlay concept.

 

[Ted Todorov]

So keep in mind that the new "to be officially announced" in "late 2023" CarPlay is similar to what Tesla "OS" has been for the last decade, indeed even some of the specific UI graphics in the new CarPlay were straight out of the current Tesla -- I posted a link to a video in the other thread that breaks down in detail the new CarPlay vs Tesla:

Sam: the Ford F-150 Lightning by all accounts is very good. The main problem it has (apart from dealers trying to massively increase the price) is what most EVs have -- trouble ramping up to sufficient volume. If it is readily available, at its MSRP, by all means go for it!

Dave: you are correct, the main potential problem with the new CarPlay is having car companies agreeing to hand over their cars software control to Apple. Some will recognize their own is terrible, and will do it, but the question is how many?

Re: Dithering -- I certainly enjoy it and think it is worth the $5 a month, but keep in mind I was a long time fan of Ben Thompson and his interests are different from Gruber -- YMMV

 

[DaveF]

Just that Tesla OS doesn’t run Apple Music or sync to my podcast app , etc.

I see the Teslas with the iPhone mounted on the 17” Tesla screen. That is madness. I want CarPlay.

 

[Ted Todorov]

Just that Tesla OS doesn’t run Apple Music or sync to my podcast app , etc.

I see the Teslas with the iPhone mounted on the 17” Tesla screen. That is madness. I want CarPlay.

Keep in mind that what we listen to on every single trip on our Tesla (which has a great sound system) is either Apple Music, or podcasts via Overcast. Yes, that’s from my iPhone via Bluetooth, but it basically always works. The iPhone, via the Tesla app basically controls the car, and when something is playing you get the cover art artist/song/album name or podcast info. You can make phone calls directly through the Tesla screen, via your iPhone’s address book. When you receive text message, the note appears on the Tesla screen, you can tap the right button on the steering wheale, and it will read the iMessage for you. You can then either single tap it and dictate an answer, or double tap to close the message.
And if playing something new via Apple Music you can just say: “hey Siri, play Kate Bush Essentials” and it will happen.
So, no CarPlay, nor native Tesla support for Apple Music (like they have for Spotify), but it really doesn’t matter. Tesla has accepted the “it just works” motto from Apple

And the iPhone is sitting on one of the pair of charging pads, so that too is covered

 

[DaveF]

I don’t use Siri for controlling audio. I’ve had no success with Siri for controlling audio content. When I ask Siri to play my station, I get weird results and everything but my station.

Also no Overcast podcast player for Tesla.

I’m solidly a “no (wireless) CarPlay, no sale” shopper for my next car.

 

[Ted Todorov]

?? Like I said the iPhone automatically connects to the Tesla via Bluetooth the moment you enter the car. If you happen to be listening to Overcast, the podcast automagically transfers to the car speakers, the cover art and podcast title, episode info transfer to the Tesla screen. You can skip commercials or go back to rehear what was just said with the left button on your steering wheel. You do not need to have an "Overcast player for Tesla"

As to "Siri is buggy so I don't use Siri" -- that I understand, but picking up your iPhone and changing what you are playing while on Autopilot is not exactly a high risk operation. If someone got into a car accident while doing that, believe me, every Autopilot related accident is treated as front page news by the the press. Heck, "accident and Tesla" in the same sentence is good enough for some sensational article action

 

[DaveF]

I've not seen a BT interface that deals with playlists and collections and everything like a native app does.

And again, why do I want to deal with my phone and having to unlock it from the "driving mode" lock state when a new car can have a giant touchscreen natively running the CarPlay interface and running my apps native rather than some janky bluetooth interface?

It's great you're happy using your iPhone while you drive your Tesla. But for me, "no CarPlay no purchase" on my next car