Roger Clemens -- amazing

Discussion in 'Archived Threads 2001-2004' started by Brian Perry, Sep 6, 2001.

  1. Brian Perry

    Brian Perry Cinematographer

    Joined:
    May 6, 1999
    Messages:
    2,807
    Likes Received:
    0
    What a remarkable pitcher. Clemens is now 19-1 (which hasn't been done since 1912) and is a mind-boggling 29-3 since coming off the DL last June. He should get his sixth Cy Young award this year, and I think he stands a chance of becoming the first player unanimously voted to the Hall of Fame. (And Randy Johnson could be the second.)
    Having said that, I hope Seattle torches Clemens in the playoffs. [​IMG]
    ------------------
    Home Theater Pictures
     
  2. Michael Fennessy

    Michael Fennessy Stunt Coordinator

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 1999
    Messages:
    106
    Likes Received:
    2
    Location:
    Mahopac NY
    Real Name:
    Michael Fennessy
    He will never be a unanimous choice. Babe Ruth was not a unanimous choice, I can't see Clemens becoming the first. Mainly b/c I am sure there must be a voter from Boston out there. They still hate the man. But, I hope he finishes up with only the one loss. The Yanks need a Cy Young winner.
    Mike
    PS. I wish Moose had thrown the perfect game this Sunday.
     
  3. Hugh Jackes

    Hugh Jackes Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2000
    Messages:
    758
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Anaheim. CA
    Real Name:
    Hugh Jackes
    "...b/c I am sure there must be a voter from Boston out there..."
    Or a Mike Piazza fan.
     
  4. Bill Slack

    Bill Slack Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 1999
    Messages:
    837
    Likes Received:
    0
    Take Clemens performance this year with a grain of salt. 19-1 isn't amazing. He's certainly having a good year, but not 'one for the ages' -- He has been blessed with great run support. He's pitched no better than Mike Mussina, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, Mark Buerhle, Jamie Moyer, or Freddy Garcia.
    He hasn't pitched great every game 'only' 19/29 quality starts (which is obviously still excellent.)
    His career is one of a lot of talent and much longevity. He wasted a lot of talent in the middle of his career by being in terrible shape, but is still one of the two best pitchers of his generation (Greg Maddux, being the other).
    Randy Johnson is 38 years old. He should be a first ballot hall of famer (though he made need a few more years of dominance) -- but certainly not unanimously.
    At the peaks of their careers I don't see how anyone could argue for Roger over the likes of Pedro, Bob Gibson, Koufax, Walter Johnson, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson or Lefy Grove. That is pretty damn good company, but none of those goes went (or are likely to be) unanimous.
    I would not be surprised if he eclipsed Tom Seaver, however. He is almost certainly a better pitcher. But people below Tom Seaver include: Ty Cobb, Hank Aaron, Mike Schmidt, Johnny Bench, Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Christy Mathewson, Jim Palmer and Willie Mays.
    -- I don't think he's a better player than anyone there. (Though I'll comb through total basbeall when I get home and look at their TPR's.)
    Oh yeah, even *I* wish Mussina how thrown a perfect game on Sunday. He should have thrown a head high fastball. Everett would have swung, I assure you!
    [Edited last by Bill Slack on September 06, 2001 at 09:53 AM]
     
  5. RicP

    RicP Screenwriter

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2000
    Messages:
    1,126
    Likes Received:
    0
     
  6. Mark Schermerhorn

    Mark Schermerhorn Second Unit

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2000
    Messages:
    354
    Likes Received:
    0
    Why are Boston fans so bitter? About everything? Are they all still angry over Bill Buckner or something?
     
  7. Michael Fennessy

    Michael Fennessy Stunt Coordinator

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 1999
    Messages:
    106
    Likes Received:
    2
    Location:
    Mahopac NY
    Real Name:
    Michael Fennessy
    Boston fans are still angry over No No Nanette.
     
  8. Patrick Sun

    Patrick Sun Moderator
    Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 1999
    Messages:
    38,678
    Likes Received:
    439
    I'm also rolling my eyes: 19-1 isn't amazing? Sheesh! Like that happens every year. Regardless of whether Clemens doesn't have a super ERA, it's more important to win games for your team, that's the bottomline. Sure, there will be some lucky times where the pitcher gives up runs, but their offense picks them up, it all evens out in a long season where you limit the runs to a bare minimum and your team wins a low scoring game, so dammit, 19-1 is pretty damn impressive!
    ------------------
    PatCave; HT Pix; Gear; DIY Mains; DIY CC; Sunosub I + II + III; DVDs; LDs
     
  9. Joseph S

    Joseph S Cinematographer

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 1999
    Messages:
    2,862
    Likes Received:
    0
    He has had a far from amazing season. It compares well to that of Bob Welch who for the record won 27 games with less run support and had an ERA over half a run better than Roger has now.
    Roger has received an average of 7 runs per game which lead the league. That is up to 3 runs better than all the other top pitchers of this year. This is the only category in which he has any sort advantage, yet folks that vote are incompetent. (which is why they will no longer choose HOF)
    Clemens has pitched under zero pressure with these leads, yet his ERA and # of Quality starts are lacking. Mike Mussina has pitched a better season than him and all numbers point to that except for the W:L ratio. Not surprisingly Mussina gets on average 3 runs less support in each start.
    Almost all of his wins(and no decisions) have come against the last place teams in baseball such as Bal, Det, Tampa, Mon, Fla, , KC... This all came as a direct result of him ducking out of a game vs Piazza and the Mets at Shea. 7 of his 19 wins are against Tam and Tor.
    The only tough challenges he faced he did not fare nearly as well. His win against Boston he backed into as the team scored in the top of the inning and he didn't even come out to pitch the bottom half. He lost to Sea and had an ERA of 7.5 against Cle in two starts.
    I would vote for Garcia, Hudson, Mulder, Moyer, Mussina, and Percival ahead of him.
    It's not surprising that Clemens who was so vocal in blasting the fraud of season by Welch fails to stand by his own requirements.
     
  10. Bill Slack

    Bill Slack Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 1999
    Messages:
    837
    Likes Received:
    0
    I'm not bitter. I was happy to watch him and pitch against, and beat, my beloved Red Sox his first game back to Fenway. It's always impressive to watch someone strike out a dozen and a half batters.
    I think he most likely should, and will, win the Cy Young. I hate counting record for much of anything, but is is done. Again, he has 19 wins. And 19 quality starts. He is 0-1 with 8 no decisions when he pitches relatively poorly. They've scored a lot of runs for him.
    It's not amazing to be 19-1, it is lucky. Just like Rube Marquand was lucky (started 19-0). He wasn't better than Christy Mathewson.
    Jose Jimenez beat Randy Johnson 1-0 a few years ago. Threw a no-hitter. He was lucky, he's not a great pitcher, by any stretch. He's decent, will pitch another 10 years, make a nice amount of money, and he'll be remembered mainly for pitching that one, lucky game. Good for him too, no shame in that!
    Roger Clemens will not be rememembered for this year, it is probobally is 6-7th best season of his career. He IS an amazing pitcher, but NOT because he is 19-1. Certainly the worst of any of his Cy Young years.
    Was Fernando Tatis amazing? Only person to ever hit 2 grand slams in the same inning (both of Chan Ho Park, nonetheless!)
    Is Yaz amazing because he was the last person to win the Triple Crown? No, he was an excellent player, and is amazing because of that. There are more teams+players now. And a higher concentration of 'good' players, than in the past. It's simply less likely and more difficult to do that. Gary Sheffield almost won it in the early 90's. Todd Helton almost won it (and is my bet to be the next person to do it...). Jeff Bagwell almost won it. It wouldn't make them better or more amazing players if they had.
    In the early 1900's 4 or 5 players on the Cubs hit 20+ home runs. Next best in the league was ~9! AMAZING! Not really... the right field line was ~190ft. The cubs pitchers were last in ERA by something in the neighborhood of two runs a game!
    Performance in baseball is, for the most part, measureable. If you're a lead off hitter with few home runs, and are on pace to knock in 90 runs, that's pretty amazing. In fact, so amazing that you're hitting .500 with runners in scoring position. Is Ichiro THAT good? He's capable of doing what no one else can do in this instance (including himself, in the past). I doubt it. If he does it over the course of 10 years, then he is. Otherwise, he's had a fair bit of luck, while also having an excellent season.
    There have been a handful of teams that have had .700+ winning percentages. An amazing record, almost all these teams have significantly exceeded their expected win total (which, over time, directly corelates to runs scored vs runs allowed). These things don't stand up over time.
    Roger Clemens will NOT start 19-1 next year, or any time again. It will be 50 years before someone does something like that. It's a freak thing, it doesn't SOLELY require great run support. For a couple years, Tom Gordon got incredible run support, but was a below average starter (two pitch pitcher, little stamina == great reliever now!) -- he didn't start 19-1. Roger Clemens, on the other hand, is a GREAT pitcher while receiving 6.97 runs per game.
    Only Dave Burba (7.02/rpg) exceeds clemens run support. Burba is 10-9, which is a little worse than Mike Mussina's 14-11 (Burba has fewer starts, as well). Funny thing though:
    Mussina get's 4.3/rpg, 4th worst in the AL. Mussina's stats, other than record are nearly indentical to Roger's. Burba, on the other hand, has been THE WORST PITCHER IN THE AL! He has an ERA of 6.32 and has given up 176 hit's (and 53 walks) in only 141 innings!
    Record is largely the function of performance and run support. Pitchers don't control run support. Clemens happens to be the meeting of awesome run support AND hall of fame pitching. Burba is of awesome run support and (bad) AA pitching.
    I am not a bitter Boston fan. I am a die-hard, well read and well researched fan of the game.
    [Edited last by Bill Slack on September 06, 2001 at 03:09 PM]
     
  11. Michael Fennessy

    Michael Fennessy Stunt Coordinator

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 1999
    Messages:
    106
    Likes Received:
    2
    Location:
    Mahopac NY
    Real Name:
    Michael Fennessy
    Hey Bill Slack,
    Are you a fan of Rob Neyer over at espn.com? If not, you should read his semi-daily column. I think you would enjoy it. and I agree with everything you just said. 19-1 is a lot of luck. Most freakish records like that have a lot to do with luck. I think it was Ted Williams who once reached base in 16 straight plate appearances. The odds of doing that are astronomical. Great skill is involved but also a tremendous amount of luck.
    Mike
     
  12. Brian Perry

    Brian Perry Cinematographer

    Joined:
    May 6, 1999
    Messages:
    2,807
    Likes Received:
    0
    Bill,
    I think you make some great points (you probably own all of Bill James' Baseball Abstracts, as do I [​IMG]).
    I think there are some intangibles, however, that can affect the hard numbers. For example, perhaps Clemens gets sloppy when he knows he has a big cushion. As a result, his ERA won't be stellar but he understands that the key is to get the win.
    Also, how a pitcher carries himself on the mound can impact the defensive performance of his players. Someone like Steve Trachsel, who always takes an eternity between pitches, doesn't get great defense because the players are falling asleep. And Trachsel is known as a crybaby who blames everyone but himself -- that may keep his teammates from trying harder to get him runs.
    ------------------
    Home Theater Pictures
     
  13. Patrick Sun

    Patrick Sun Moderator
    Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 1999
    Messages:
    38,678
    Likes Received:
    439
    It's not like Clemens is a flash in the pan, he owns 5 Cy Young awards, more than anyone else in the game. You can spin the numbers all you want, but the fact is, he's got his current win/loss record and while some of it is fluky, don't discount his work ethic and physical gifts, and approach to pitching (busting people inside). [​IMG]
    How many of us complain when home run hitters get a bunch of their homers of rookies and crap pitchers? If you put up the numbers, you put up the numbers. If not like Clemens is ducking every "good" team in the league, he doesn't have much say in how the scheduling goes and when his turn in the rotation comes up. You just do the best you can do when called upon to do it. If you somehow manage a fabulous record due to having great offensive support, while also keeping the other team at bay, so be it. As long you win, that's all that matters.
    Ask any pitcher: would you want a super-low ERA and a mediocre win/loss record or an average ERA and a great win/loss record?
    ------------------
    PatCave; HT Pix; Gear; DIY Mains; DIY CC; Sunosub I + II + III; DVDs; LDs
     
  14. John Thomas

    John Thomas Cinematographer

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2000
    Messages:
    2,633
    Likes Received:
    0
    quote: Take Clemens performance this year with a grain of salt. 19-1 isn't amazing
    Yep. It hasn't been done in over 85 years...not amazing at all![/quote]
    Bill does have a point, Ric. It's similar to the theory of the monkey shaking the box of watch parts. Sooner or later, if able to shake for infinity, the parts will come together as a watch. I'm not a Boston fan by far but he's just as lucky this year as he is good. He got one of those wins by pitching 5 innings, allowing 4 runs. That's not good pitching, that's an ERA of 7.2 approximately. I've noticed this all season (since I'm in a fantasy league, you really pick up on this) that while he gets the wins, he really doesn't go the distance. Having Mariano Rivera has REALLY helped this year, cleaning up some situations where men were on base. It's definately a case where his numbers are better than his performance this year.
    One more thing for thought: Greg Maddux is 17-8 this year, who is argueably better than Clemens. What's up there? An Atlanta team that doesn't put up runs like the Yankees or perhaps an Atlanta team that doesn't have a good closer? (Rocker fiasco)
    ------------------
    [​IMG] My Top 10 of 2000 My Top 10 of 2001
    [Edited last by John Thomas on September 06, 2001 at 04:17 PM]
     
  15. Bill Slack

    Bill Slack Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 1999
    Messages:
    837
    Likes Received:
    0
    [​IMG]
    Yes, I am a big Rob Neyer and Bill James fan!
    Sure, I'll give you that there are some intangibles, and some things that don't show up in measurements. But you don't get to be 19-1 with a bit more grit and focus than the next guy. Most importantly, Roger has been doing this for 20 years, so any intangibles should already have shown their effects.
    He used to be known as not being a 'big game pitcher'. He couldn't win the big one. Until the last couple years, NOW he's a big game pitcher?? No, he just had bad luck, and didn't play for as good teams in Boston (and in '94 didn't do much in the playoff's because he wasn't in good shape during that period of his career.)
    Other non 'big game' players? How about Willie Mays... bad post season numbers. Barry Bonds, the same. Greg Maddux, the same. I'd rather have Willie Mays or Barry Bonds than Pat Borders ('92 WS MVP) though!
     
  16. KeithH

    KeithH Lead Actor

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2000
    Messages:
    9,413
    Likes Received:
    0
    Bill, you said:
     
  17. Bill Slack

    Bill Slack Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 1999
    Messages:
    837
    Likes Received:
    0
    Patrick,
    Would a pitcher rather be Mike Mussina (2000)? Or Kent Bottenfield (1999)
    Moose: 11-15, 3.50 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
    Bottenfield: 18-7, 3.97 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (!)
    Sure, rather be on the Cardinals than the Orioles, in order to not be on such a terrible team, but that's not what we're talking about here.
    I'm guessing most pitchers would much prefer to be Mussina.
    Anyway, what REALLY counts for pitchers is (Walks + Hits) / IP.. e.g. WHIP (though to make this better, slugging should be incorporated in as well.)
    Whereas for hitters it's OPS (OBP+Slugging -- though OBP is slightly more important).
    WHIPs/ERA:
    Clemens 2001 = 1.24/3.44 (very good)
    Randy Johnson 2001 = 1.00/2.31(awesome)
    Pedro 2000 = .74/1.74 (wow)
    Greg Maddux 1995 = .81/1.63 (wow again!)
    '95 Maddux K/BB ratio: ~9:1 (181:23)
    '00 Pedro K/BB ratio: ~9.5:1 (284:32)
    '01 Johnson K/BB ratio: ~5:1 (326:61)
    '01 Roger K/BB ratio: ~3:1 (191:60)
    (yes, AL vs NL whip aren't directly comparable due to the DH)
    And none of this takes into account home park adjustments either (e.g. Hudson, I'm sure is helped by his spacious digs, and Joe Mays is not helped by the Homer Dome in MN -- and, did you know that Camden Yards doesn't play as much of a hitters park [even before they moved the fences back]??).
    Oh well, I'm off to see the hapless Sox for 3 games (maybe 4, if we catch both halves of the double header) in Baltimore next weekend. Mediocore baseball (with a little Cal and Manny tossed in the mix) is still fun to watch. [​IMG]
    ---
    Let me amend my earlier comment.
    Roger Clemens SHOULD not be remembered for this year. It's not what had made him great, and not a great example of his greatness.
    1986, 1990, 1996, and 1997. Those were his GREAT years. Even if he wins it all this year. (Though, obviously if goes ahead and excels in the post season or soemthing, then it makes sense to remember that as a great accomplishment -- But if he does that, it's because of his immense talent, and not related to the fact that he started 19-1.)
    Rube Marquand, btw, when around 7-11 the rest of the year.
    ... and Tim Wakefield, in 1995, had a 16 game winning streak.
    [Edited last by Bill Slack on September 06, 2001 at 04:46 PM]
     
  18. Joseph S

    Joseph S Cinematographer

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 1999
    Messages:
    2,862
    Likes Received:
    0
    Amazing is what Pedro did last year, amazing is what Koufax did for five years, amazing is what Bob Gibson did, amazing is what Roger Clemens did in 86,87, 88, 90, and 97.
    Amazing is not what Roger Clemens is doing now or Bob Welch did.
    Please look at the numbers of other players this year like Curt Schilling. As for the mention that he doesn't pick his opponents. Well, he did pick his opponents and the future rotation schedule by ducking out of the game at Shea stadium. That set the course for Mike Mussina to face all the tough teams and Roger to face the sisters of the poor. His numbers are average to poor for him. His CG are to none, SHO are none as a result, Strikeout are down almost 100 from 98, and he hasn't broken 3 in ERA in a long time. Mike Mussina deserves the credit for taking all the criticism and all the tough battles. Roger is merely performing like Bob Welch did on a staff where Dave Stewart was the true ace.
     
  19. Bill Slack

    Bill Slack Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 1999
    Messages:
    837
    Likes Received:
    0
    Denny McLain had ~4 good years. Not great, good. a career 3.42 ERA (1 percent better than league average) and 131-91 record are not greatness.
    His legacy is as a trivia question -- the last player to win 30 games. If he won 29, he wouldn't be remembered by many at all.
     
  20. Mitty

    Mitty Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 1999
    Messages:
    886
    Likes Received:
    5
     

Share This Page