It's Coming Right At Us!! (1 Viewer)

[MickeS]

According to Swedish newssite Aftonbladet, NASA has now determined that the risk of impact is 1 in 250,000, much less than originally thought. They now expect it to miss earth by a hair, 22,000 kilometers. They still need more data to determine for sure though, and there are still risks later on.

/Mike

 

[BrianW]

Holy crap, that's close!! That's inside the orbit of many of our satellites!

 

[Justin_S]

I have always had an insane fear of an end of the world disaster occuring in my lifetime. I have feared many different ways in which it would happen, and obviously an asteroid hit is definitely one of them. Everyone I know tells me to just live life to its fullest, and what happens will happen. That is easier said than done though. I worry about this kind of shit constantly. Its a worry that bothers the hell out of me, but unlike other people, I can't get rid of it. The huge tidal waves in DEEP IMPACT scared the shit out of me. I knew it would happen if an asteroid hit water, but actually seeing what it would be like makes it all the more terrifying.

I agree with everyone that a whole hell of a lot more focus needs to be put on a way to possibly prevent such an impact.

 

[Julie K]

That's inside the orbit of many of our satellites!

Yep, a geosynchronous orbit is at ~42,000 km!

But fortunately it looks like the refined orbit obtained from new data is moving this away from us. Whew! However, there will be a day and an object when that won't happen.

 

[Jack Briggs]

And it could happen without any warning. (Comets worry me just as much, if not more. Sneaky things.)

 

[BrianW]

If you want to see 2002 NT7's orbit in 3D, go here:
Link Removed
NOTE: This is just Java Applet that uses simple two-body equations of motion, so it is not a rigorous or accurate treatment of the subject of orbital mechanics over long periods of time. It will not show you when a collision will or will not occur. But it is really cool, and it shows that the one point at which it crosses Earth's orbit is one of only two points in its orbit in which it crosses the ecliptic plane.
I didn't realize its orbit was so skewed to the ecliptic. Now that I've seen it, I'm astounded that such a thing could be. The odds against a non-ecliptic orbiter being an Earth-crosser are, well, astronomical.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Luckily were pretty sharp at predicting and preventing earthquakes though, so really all we need to worry about now is stuff from space.
I'm sorry, but NEO's are just the flavor of the month of horrible disasters. Real threat, yes. Biggest threat, no.
2 things on stuff mentioned that I 100% agree with -
1) A real impact is detected and announced. We appear to have nothing we can do about it. World turns into living hell, with special emphasis on the "end of the world" religious freaks who now have way too much fodder for their guns. Extremist groups go especially nuts and humanity completely turns in on itself within 3-4 years.
Then the rock misses a virtually dead Earth thanks to a miscalculation (like some aspect overlooked).
2) We detect and alter the orbit. Ooops, we now created an impact 6 years sooner than before. Sorry about all that.
To me those scenario's are just as likely as any, which is part of the problem here that some of the "anti" people have been sort of touching on in the thread. We've got a LOT of problems and it amazes me how quickly we can get distracted to the disaster of the week despite not having solved the previous ones.
Perfect example - AIDS, Cancer, and Heart Disease. Funding shifted dramatically towards AIDS research in America, far surpassing the "per affected" amounts spent on cancer and heart disease.
Was cancer "solved"? Hell no. Was AIDS the #1 killer? Not even close. Did people think these things were true? Yep.
I gave a speech on the subject while in college. At the end, I swear to god, a lady told me "Yes, but we know how to prevent cancer." (reducing a risk is not prevention BTW, just a step toward that goal)
Hmm, too bad my friend's 18 year-old healthy (non-smoking for example) cousin wasn't informed of this before he contracted brain cancer and died within a year. Heart disease remains the #1 killer (and HD kills more YOUNG people, all age groups, than HIV as well, not just people over 50), but people think it's just a matter of "if I'm 'healthy' then I'm safe". Totally clueless. And even more ironic is that AIDS is actually now MUCH more avoidable than cancer. We know how AIDS is transferred basically, avoiding contact with infected blood/needles or not having sex with an infected partner (at the very least unprotected).
Let's see, things I have a better chance of avoiding - getting brain cancer from an unknown reason or injecting HIV infected blood into my body...boy that's a tough one.
The point is that a lot of these threats (and the funding that goes with them) stems from IMAGE, just like any other aspect of our culture. NEO's became a vogue topic and now people love to hear about it and worry about it. Hey, it was a threat in the 60's too, right? But for some reason all anyone wanted to talk about was Cuba, Russian nukes, and Viet Nam.
We like to think science follows some path of reason and natural process. But science lives on funding, and funding lives on the same hype machine techniques that make MTV so much fun. Funding has very little to do with what is "best" and a lot to do with what is SOLD the best.
Perhaps NEOs are a good way for NASA to re-sell the space program to the tax payers. I guess that's a good thing, but to me it's a bit sad that it has to come to that. And I can't help but wonder if the end of humanity really will come from a NEO at all, or from one of our many existing terrestrial problems that are also underfunded.

 

[BrianW]

Good thoughts, Seth. I guess for most of us, it’s not that we’re “into” the disaster flavor of the week. It’s just that we recognize that a NEO, unlike cancer, heart disease, or earthquakes, has the potential for causing human extinction. I believe it is that aspect of it that compels us to want to do something about it – not the fact that it is just the currently-hyped disaster. Humankind will go on if we never cure diseases or prevent earthquakes. But there’s never a time in a solar system’s life when you can proclaim that a biosphere-destroying asteroid or comet will never again strike. It really is just a matter of time.

Real threat, yes. Biggest threat, no.

Yeah, that’s it in a nutshell. I really do have a bigger chance of getting run over by a camel in my kitchen than being killed by an asteroid. But the reality of this threat is that it will eventually get us all.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Humankind will go on if we never cure diseases or prevent earthquakes.

But here's the thing, a really devastating terrestrial event COULD be catastrophic, and earthquakes are NOT predictible by more than a few hours at the most (if that) and certain not stoppable. If the Earth wants to shift, it shifts.

AND, life has gone on after asteroid hits before. The key here is an extinction level NEO, not just a troublesome sized one. I realize THIS one is extinction level, but my point is that the ones that really do hit might not be, just like they may be hundreds of years away from doing so anyway.

By then it could be that we live in such a polluted world that the denser, dirty air burns up much bigger rocks than it does now, or who knows.


And disease could easily wipe out mankind. We already saw populations decimated by previous diseases. What if a lethal version of TB really got out, for example. Someone coughs on you and you die type of stuff.


And you know it wasn't so long ago that a leading suspect behind the deaths of the dinos was terrestrial based - volcanic erruption spewing enough ash into the atmosphere to change the climate into an ice age level.

To be honest, I would consider terrorist-based nuclear devastation to be a MUCH higher priority of worry than a NEO.

There is not an absolute certainty of Earth's destruction by a NEO. And by the time of the next impact we might well be able to survive due to technology, either in preventing the event or surviving the event. Sure, I understand that we aren't at that level now and maybe won't be soon, but this whole "but one day it will happen" doesn't matter beyond that because there are a lot of other very unknown factors that go with it, like will there even be a humanity on Earth to be wiped out by the impact when it finally does arrive.

My point before was just that humans have a tendency to run higgildy-piggildy after whichever problem currently worries them, till something else grabs their attention, at which point they totally forget the previous problem. And sometimes that means allowing the previous problem to get in first and do it's damage.

Speaking of that and TB, deadly strains of TB did resurface in America after having been previously "cured". The big reason is that once it was "cured" the funding dwindled and research on additional drug treatments was put aside. Then street people started taking only part of their treatments again and again until some strains had been exposed to all 11 versions without actually being killed off. So they became immune.

The result was that we had to scramble to get back to having new treatments that could kill these new strains (TB is lethal of course and a rather nasty way to die). A classic case of losing focus because of image - TB was no longer cool to work on. And that is why I mentioned AIDS/cancer because cancer also lost a lot of funding when AIDS became the cool thing to work on.

It's just funny to me that 10 years ago no one talked about NEOs at all. They weren't film subjects nor in all the press. Now they are the number 1 danger to us all. Just makes me wonder "what's different suddenly?"

 

[Jack Briggs]

Um, Seth, if it were confirmed that this object is indeed on an intercept orbit and that impact is certain, then it would deservedly be at the very top of the entire species' priority list. Sure, other threats exist. But if something so clearcut as this turns out to be certain, it should remain in our consciousness.

 

[Max Leung]

It's just funny to me that 10 years ago no one talked about NEOs at all. They weren't film subjects nor in all the press. Now they are the number 1 danger to us all. Just makes me wonder "what's different suddenly?"

Remember that TV miniseries/movie called Meteor? That was made in the mid-80's. It wasn't by any means the first, despite it's terrible trouble.
NEOs have always been characterized by the media and entertainment industries, particularly in the last 30 years. Like all potential disasters, they follow a cycle: Tornado movies, nuclear devestation movies, luxury liner disaster flicks, burning buildings, mental illness pornography, drug violence docudramas, bad driving extravaganzas, plague movies (The Stand, 12 Monkeys, ... geez Seth, did you forget about these already? ), and an HTF favorite: Highly-contagious undead zombies with fully-functional vocal cords!
It all comes in cycles. We had the asteroid disaster movies in the last 5 years, before that the luxury liner, recently nuclear sub disaster (came and went the last 10 years), etc. Your selective memory is "what's different suddenly".

 

[RobertR]

if it were confirmed that this object is indeed on an intercept orbit and that impact is certain, then it would deservedly be at the very top of the entire species' priority list.

I agree with you, Jack. Notwithstanding the tragedy of disease, and the emotional appeals of pressure groups for increased funding, cancer and AIDS, etc. do not threaten our very civilization. Death is a natural part of life. An asteroid collision, on the other hand, would be far FAR more devastating.

 

[Danny R]

It's just funny to me that 10 years ago no one talked about NEOs at all. They weren't film subjects nor in all the press.
And before the 1979 movie Meteor was the 1977 Niven bestseller Lucifer's Hammer which also was about a comet striking the earth (and probably inspired the basic premise for the movie).
Long before that was the 1951 movie When Worlds Collide, where not just a meteor, asteroid or comet strikes earth, but a whole other planet does, totally obliterating all life. 50's sci-fi at its best.

 

[Max Leung]

Feh. It's gonna miss. :frowning:
Asteroid to miss - this time around
So much for kicking humanity's pants into action.

 

[Danny R]

So much for kicking humanity's pants into action.
Yup, this just won't do. I say we go and correct that asteroid and make certain it hits.

 

[StephenK]

Hey BrianW,

Very cool applet. Thanks for the link!

 

[Julie K]

Aw, rats. Guess I'll have to pin my hopes on the killer fish.

 

[Max Leung]

Go killer fish!

Danny, maybe we can start a company together, get an IPO, and use the money to hire mad scientists, and redirect asteroids for our diabolical plans for world domination (we'll have plenty of backup plans).

We'll be certain to follow proper accounting practices to the letter. Don't want to mislead the shareholders.

Corporate slogan: "World Domination Corporation: Life is good, because we say so."

 

[Ken Garrison]

They just said on the news last night that it's gonna miss. YAY!!!

 

[Steve Christou]

Sheet! False alarm! What am I gonna do with all that tinned tuna now?

"Asteroid 1997 XF11 will pass well beyond the Moon's distance from Earth in October 2028 with a zero probability of impacting the planet, according to astronomers at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA.
The asteroid 'is predicted to pass at a rather comforable distance of about 600,000 miles (about 960,000 kilometers) in 2028,' reported Dr. Donald K. Yeomans and Dr. Paul W. Chodas, JPL scientists who specialize in computing the predicted orbits of comets, asteroids, planets and other bodies in the solar system.
"While we cannot completely rule out an impact possibility for 1 February 2060, it seems very likely that this possibility will soon be ruled out as well."