It's Coming Right At Us!! (1 Viewer)

[Julie K]

Yes, I think people have the idea that we have a much greater space capability than we actually have.
Assembling interplanetary vehicles in orbit is a great idea, but we've never done it and couldn't do it now. But it's a worthy goal to work towards.
(And Jack, yes, of course I believe you )

 

[Mike__D]

And it should be noted that the International Space Station is not capable of inflight vehicle processing--nor does its design allow for such.

I realize that... just used it as an example about us being able to build/assemble things in space.

Here's an even more radical plan. Create a base on the moon that can serve to launch rockets to intercept near earth objects. Sure, it would cost a ton. We'd have to design a whole new space craft that can land on the moon, drop off equipment, then get back home. But in the long run, might prove useful, because you wouldn't have to worry about the moon's gravity as much as the earth's, plus it would give us a few extra days since it's a decent distance from the earth...

I am a bit disappointed... when I was young I would have thought we'd have some kind of moon base by now...

 

[Julie K]

plus it would give us a few extra days since it's a decent distance from the earth...

Heh, the moon revolves around the earth, you know The earth could end up between the moon and the asteroid...
Anyway, it's not an "anti-aircraft" problem where you shoot stuff down as it's making its final approach to a bombing run.
First off, it is uncertain that we could blow it apart. And if we did, we'd still get hit by a lot of chunks if we hit it too close to the earth.
No, we want to rendezvous with or intercept these things when they are far, far away in both time and space. Time is an important factor because just a small change in velocity will create huge changes in position if given enough time.

 

[Tim Hoover]

I'll admit that my previous post was only half-serious. However, I'd like to respond to some comments:

So you would prefer that we be cold/wet/hot/dirty? Do YOU eschew this climate-controlled environment that you apparently disparage?

I don't prefer those options, and yes, I have central heat and air. Again, that's my whole point. I feel that with the rise and increasing complexity of civilization over the past several thousand years that we have gradually lost our adaptability mechanism. Mike_D said above that he wouldn't survive the NE's humidity without air conditioning. Although I'm sure, realistically, that he COULD survive, it just goes to show how aware we are of this discomfort nowadays. I'm sure the Indians or European settlers wouldn't have given it much thought...

Finally, please don't take this as a marked disdain for humanity. I don't think people as a whole are so bad, it's simply that I refuse to place us up on a pedestal as The Greatest Thing In The World when so much points to the contrary.

 

[Frederick]

I think we've forgone the moon in favor of hitting Mars one day. I guess the moon isn't "exciting" enough anymore, although the thought of a moon-base would be great practice for eventually colonizing Mars. Would creating and maintaining a moon base be more expensive than the ISS? I guess it would because of fuel costs in getting back and forth. But I think it would be more exciting ...


Freddy C.

 

[Mike__D]

And if we did, we'd still get hit by a lot of chunks if we hit it too close to the earth.

But it could be possible that those chunks would be small enough to burn up in the Earth's atmoshpere, or bounce off it given the right angle...
As I said, was just a more radical idea...

 

[Julie K]

But it could be possible that those chunks would be small enough to burn up in the Earth's atmoshpere,

And it's possible they won't. Again, the farther away in time and space you do whatever (blow up, paint white, etc) to the asteroid, the bigger the margin of safety. Some of these techniques only work if there's lots and lots of time.

 

[StephenK]

I wish I had a lot more details handy.
I agree completely about it being a daunting task, which is why I always prefer following the K.I.S.S. rule. I don't think you need to build something huge and overly complex to accomplish the task. I think a lot of people are assuming it's really far away and will take 17 years to reach us, but that's not the case. Remember the specifics:
Orbits the Sun very 2.3 years,
Orbital path tilted slightly to the Earth's orbital plane
Orbital radius between Mars' and Earth's.
This means that we don't need to go that far (relatively) to reach it during one of its many orbits.
If (and its a big if) one or a few high yield Strategic Nuke's could blow the thing up, then we need the following:
1) Warhead
2) Independent guidance system that could locate, track and make constant adjustments while targeting.
3) Enough propellant to get it to a decent speed, then only enough to make course corrections.
We sure have plenty of warheads , the guidance system probably already exists. I don't think it would take that much to modify our current "smart bomb" guidance systems to find the object, either optically or through radar and vector in. The biggest issue, as stated above, is getting the thing there. Assuming the warhead and guidance package is at most 1,000 pounds, (half the weight of a small car). We need enough propellant to get this payload out of Earth orbit, into the projected path of the rock during one of its orbits, and then perform minor course corrections until blammo, we open a can of whoop-ass on the rock.
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic about this, which would be shocking as I'm usually the biggest cynic in the room, but it just seems like we could get this easily figured out given the motivation.
Now blowing up a rock coming in from outer-pluto orbit is a different story...

 

[Dennis Reno]

Worse case scenario:
Scientists confirm that 2002 NT7 (friends call it "NT") will strike the Earth on February 1, 2019. Over the next two years a plan is devised to use American nukes on top of Russian Proton rockets to deliver a "nudge" to NT. This nudge will alter NT's path allowing it to miss the Earth by at least 100,000 miles on 2/1/19.
All goes well, the launch, the flight and the detonation. After repeated observations scientists confirm that NT will not strike the Earth on 2/1/19. Instead, it will strike sometime next year

 

[Max Leung]

I consider a planet defended from asteroids by a fleet of spacecraft (carrying a TBD payload) to be nothing less than the good sense shown by airplanes that carry floats, oxygen masks, first aid, emergency exits, and so forth. It is an extremely rare event, but a devasting one if it happens.

This is all well and good, but unfortunately I believe Carl Sagan was correct in pointing out that we'd need some way of guaranteeing that a terrorist group or hostile space-faring country won't use this technology to threaten life on Earth (instead of diverting an asteroid, they aim it at Earth!). Oops, off-topic!
If past history is of any indication, humans are very good at solving macro problems, but we really suck at the micro-problems.
Good at macro: Nuclear power. Hydroelectric power. Huge-ass dams. Man on the moon. Birth control. Agriculture. Toilet paper. Sewers and running water. Genocide.
Bad at micro: Stopping parasites (viruses such as AIDS, common cold, crop-threatening pests), organ repair, penis enlargement, saving the lives of people with holes in them (guns/knives), removing oil from cooked bacon, spinal injuries, recycling, cats and dogs living together, and men and women fulling understanding each other.
:wink:

 

[Jack Briggs]

...removing oil from cooked bacon...

*shudders suddenly*

 

[Julie K]

Max,
Actually, we've made some good advances on some of those micro-problems. Smallpox and polio are no longer serious threats (we'll ignore the terrorist angle, we'll have that angle with any technology). Gun and knife wounds are the least life-threatening now than in the past due to medical advances and organ repair is certainly far more developed than any time in the past. Dogs and cats can and do live together if raised together and I have no problem blotting up grease from cooked bacon.

 

[StephenK]

Homer: Wait a minute wait a minute wait a minute. Lisa honey, are you saying you're *never* going to eat any animal again? What about bacon?
Lisa: No.
Homer: Ham?
Lisa: No.
Homer: Pork chops?
Lisa: Dad! Those all come from the same animal!
Homer: Yeah, right Lisa. A wonderful, magical animal.

 

[Max Leung]

Hmmm, but there is still that pressing problem with men and women to lick!

Errr, I don't mean we should lick women, no matter how pleasurable that sounds.

So any word on that asteroid thingy? Is it gonna hit or not? I hope they're not using lookup-tables printed on papers and sliderules to figure out where it is going!

 

[BrianW]

Quote:

So I win!
Wait… I gotta set the what on the what now?

 

[John Thomas]

Yeah, but pork chops taste good. But I don't think that sewer rat tastes like pumpkin pie.

Anyhow, how about encasing the asteroid in a warp bubble to decrease its mass. We could move it around much easier that way. If that doesn't work, just change the laws of physics temporarily.

 

[Max Leung]

Yeah, changing the gravitational constant of the universe is a great idea! Sounds like a Star Trek: Next Generation episode to me!
Anybody read that David Brin/Gregory Benford collaboration called Heart of the Comet? Yep, building mass driver engines on the asteroid that uses the asteroid's own rock (strip mined by robots!) is a nifty idea! Grab a piece of rock, and fling it into outer space. Good old action-reaction trick. We just need 50 years of R&D to figure out how to do it.

 

[John Thomas]

Max, the only problem with that is doing that falls outside the parameters of our ability. (Can't recall the episode's name but doing just that is suggested by Q, while human I believe)

 

[Jody C Robins]

Don't worry guys, there is an ongoing effort going on to solve this problem in the private sector. I am a drilling engineer for a major oil and gas production company. Ever since Armaggeddon was released, myself and the other "best deep core drillers" (ha ha) on the planet have been required to take an annual two-week class called "Drilling on Asteroids, Comets, and other NEOs." All of the world's oil companies (Except ExxonMobile, those oil-spilling bastards) have also come together to build several "Space Rigs" designed to be carried to the designated NEO in shuttles. (We keep said rigs in the same place we hide all of our patented cars, generators, etc that run on water and make the world's reliance on petroleum products obsolete). We are prepared for this, and after we save the Earth we hope that the rest of you guys will like us (you'll really like us!) and ignore our conrolling of the world, ha ha (for instance, even though I am young, I already personally control East Ghana and Arkansas).

 

[RobertR]

I feel that with the rise and increasing complexity of civilization over the past several thousand years that we have gradually lost our adaptability mechanism.

I view it differently. Our scientific and technical knowledge has made us MORE adaptable. It's simply a different (and more effective) method than what other species on the planet use.

If the object under discussion DOES threaten us and we DO figure out how to divert it, I'd like to think that would demonstrate once and for all how much better the human species is at surviving. Unfortunately, there will probably still be people who don't think much of their own species.