How long before studios stop production on current DVDs? (1 Viewer)

[Tim_Stack]

The last Beta tape was manufactured just last year I believe...I'd say 15 yrs until the conventional DVD is completely gone.

 

[Don Solosan]

"The last Beta tape was manufactured just last year I believe...I'd say 15 yrs until the conventional DVD is completely gone. "

I used the prolonged existance of Beta in another thread and was told that it was pro-level Beta, not consumer. The consumer version of Beta has apparently been gone for quite a while.

 

[Jesse Blacklow]

If the current selection is anything to go by, it will just be blockbusters and movies made in the last year. I appreciate your hopes for the future of on-demand, but this vision of a unlimited library available to anyone with cable is a pipe-dream. Like I said before, the studios hate anything that takes control out of their hands. DVDs are, and will remain, the dominant form of distrobution for a while.

 

[Mark Zimmer]

Right. I don't see obscure old movies getting into the On Demand system in my lifetime....say something like Curse of the Crimson Cult. Very unlikely. But I guess you could call me a niche market too.

 

[Seth--L]

I'm not saying that it is an optimal system for the people who frequent this message board, but for joe wal-mart six-pack who only cares about seeing the latest action films.

 

[Glenn Overholt]

The latest action films? Like?

No, I don't want a list. Ok, I know there are some out, but isn't this what they sort of did when DVD first came out? A lot of action films were the first ones to hit the market. How long is it going to take Joe to realize that he has seen everything that can be seen on cable, and then wonders why he should continue to pay for movies that he has already seen, or doesn't want to bother with?

Even if every movie known to man were available, Joe isn't going to want to watch something that came out 50 years ago if all he wants are new action films. Sure, he might go for it at first, but I don't think that it would last very long.

Six months tops, 3 or 4 months is probably closer.

Glenn

 

[Paul Sandhu]

No one got my Back the Future Part II reference? With the scene in the alley with the discarded LDs and CDs (you could say they're DVDs in there too).

I for one don't like the Pay-Per-View system, I rather own my movies. I also like to collect them, how else will we get old TV shows? And what about special features? Will we have to pay extra for those?

 

[Lars Vermundsberget]

I guess I shouldn't care. This has nothing to do with me anyway.

 

[WillardK]

It's years away though likely within MY lifetime, and is obviously an eventual step in movie distribution. How closely it will fit Seth's very specific predictions (which shift somewhat daily it seems) and whether it manages to become a truly unlimited source who knows, but the technology is already being worked on. An mp3/cd analogy is almost too easy but unavoidable. Even though it doesn't mean the necessary demise of hard copies, collectors just don't wanna even hear it.

Paul-
Why not old tv shows, and why not supplements (with alternate audio for commentary)? BTW, a few free supplements have already been offered with VOD.

 

[Jeff_HR]

I think I'll wait to upgrade until I have a Holo-suite which has Star Trek like Holo-images projected into it.

 

[Todd Robertson]

VOD? yuk. sounds way too boring. I like having a physical library. no idiots to deal with, no mail..all that jazz. maybe on a rare occasion, but that would be indeed, rare. thats taking a ton-o-fun out of collecting and building a personal library.

DVD will hang on and be well loved for another 15 years. my current library will last much longer as it will be used for enjoyment and research. as long as delamination stays on the other side of the line...it could last my lifetime.

as for the war...I'm just sittin' back and watching. as long as I have my HDTV now....it's all good.

 

[Jeff D Han]

I agree with you, Todd. I wouldn't go for a pay-per-view
or a video-on-demand subscription system because I would
rather have the physical DVD format in my library. I am
very happy with the current DVD format, and I intend to
keep my collection for a long time. I also wouldn't
buy into PPV or VOD because of my Netflix membership.

 

[Bob_Hammond]

DVDs will stay around a long time. It's a case of diminishing returns. DVD video and audio is much better then VHS, and pretty much everybody can see it. HD DVD is better then DVD, but it is not nearly as obvious. For many people DVD is good enough. Until the prices are the same, a lot of people aren't going to be willing to pay a premium for HD DVD.

 

[Sean Aaron]

I think VOD will quite easily kill off rental of physical media (in most markets, likely), since Blockbuster, et al make most of their money off of new release rentals and not catalogue titles, which has become more and more true with DVD. But displacing consumer product sold in shops? No way. Even if the studios inked a deal with the cable companies, the only way that would happen is if the revenue from physical media sales plummeted in response; otherwise the studios will go where the money is, and frankly it would take a sea-change in the way people relate to media for that to happen.

The iTunes/mp3 comparison is interesting, but the fact is that CD sales dwarf online music sales massively and they are not in decline; if anything online distribution of singles will no doubt replace CD singles, but will probably feed the sale of full-length CD albums, why? Because people don't like paying the same price for a downloaded collection of tracks that they do for a CD with disc, case, liner notes, etc. Logically the way forward would be as with VOD as described: subscription, but again, there are many subscription-based downloadable music stores and who is the biggest by far? iTunes, which is NOT subscription-based. Why? I would imagine part of it is not wanting to pay for something you're not using, and there's always going to be people who aren't going to subscribe.

I find it easier to believe in a world where people don't care about movies any more than a world where everyone pays per download of whatever A/V entertainment they're looking for. I know the studios and record companies want every to pay per listen, but it's just not going to happen bar a fair-use tax like they have in Canada and I'm very glad that's the case.

 

[Dustin A]

HD-DVD will come on faster than the VHS-DVD transition. The reason is that it will end up only costing like $50 more to get a HD-DVD player vs a standard DVD player. NO-ONE is just going to buy an old DVD player in three years.

Of course I'm biased. I bought the first Sony DVD player.

 

[PeterMano]

At CES, the HD-DVD camp stated they were hoping to bring in players at under $1000. Ouch! So, I think people thinking that hd-dvd players will be priced at $50 more than a standard dvd player are in for a rude awakening.

We've got a format war here. Sony won't budge, I know that. WB is just as stubborn. At CES, the idea of a compromise was broached to the blu-ray side and it was basically, no way. What I've read, is that the hd-dvd studios are looking to price their hd-dvd titles at $10 more than the comparably priced dvd.

I hope people didn't think, they were going to get all this extra goodness and not pay for it.

I'm all for a higher resolution format. But, this potentially very ugly format war needs to be resolved quickly and unfortunately, its looking like that's not in the cards. Sony intends to put blu-ray into their upcoming ps3 video game system. Whether it will play blu-ray movies out of the box and what the ps3 will cost, I don't know. But, sony could use this as a rather large trojan horse for blu-ray. What that does to the other blu-ray manufacturers, I don't know.

Right now, it's a mess. It's going to get ugly. What I do know, I'm not buying two separate players. I've had quite enough of the foolishness of video game console makers and their proprietary libraries without having that affect my movie watching as well.

The big benefeciary here is good old plain vanilla dvd. It may not be sexy, but it's here now and it works. My buying habits have changed somewhat. I"m no longer willing to pay release day prices for new movies. I wait and pick them up later when they come down in price.

How long will dvd last? Well, if the upcoming format war doesn't yield a conclusive winner, dvd will be around a lot longer than anyone thought. Blu-ray and HD-DVD could both wind up self-immolating. D-VHS hasn't exactly torn up the sales charts. In my local area, and I live like in a major city, I still haven't seen a D-VHS player or any D-VHS film. Love to, btw, but no luck.

Still buying dvds, will continue to buy dvds, I'm just a little more cautious these days.

 

[Lars Vermundsberget]

The point being...?

The price of standard DVD players was also in the range of "under $1000" for a while. Another couple of years and it could indeed be "considerably under $1000".

But as to who's going to win a format war I have no comment.