How long before studios stop production on current DVDs?

Discussion in 'DVD' started by Greg_M, Jan 10, 2005.

  1. Greg_M

    Greg_M Screenwriter

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    With HD_DVD titles announced for the fall, any one know how long before the studios stop pressing regular dvds?

    Sorry if this has been asked before.
     
  2. Roger Rollins

    Roger Rollins Supporting Actor

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    The DVD household penetration just passed 70 million homes.
    VHS is being largely phased out. DVD is about to celebrate it's 8th anniversary.

    DVD was the fastest growing product in the history of consumer electronics....

    Regardless of the format, or a format war, HD-DVD will remain a "niche" business or "smaller business" for years to come.

    I personally believe that traditional DVD is going to be alive and thriving for many, many years to come. The players are reasonably priced, the discs are (for the most part) as well.

    ..and regardless of whether one person thinks HD-DVD is better than Blu-Ray or vice/versa, it is my opinion that the general public is not that concerned about "great quality", and that the general excellence of SD-DVD will keep it in the main spotlight for many years to come.

    I'm excited about the new technologies, but I am confident that the importance of SD-DVD is not about to be overlooked by the major studios. I don't think "smart companies" will hold back on special features, or do anything to diminish the importance of DVD, while they look to the future of Hi-Def.

    (...then again,you have companies like SONY who have chosen to give us PAN & SCAN special editions of movies like ANNIE)
    [​IMG]
     
  3. Peter Apruzzese

    Peter Apruzzese Producer

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    I'll guess at least 10 years.
     
  4. Ernest Rister

    Ernest Rister Producer

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    Not for at least five to six years at the bare minimum. What DVD was in 2001, high def TV will be in 2008-2010.
     
  5. JeremySt

    JeremySt Screenwriter

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    VHS tapes are still in production.... That should give you an idea.
     
  6. Michael Elliott

    Michael Elliott Lead Actor

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    Agreed. Studios have been kicking this HD thing around for a while now but each year DVD has gotten better and better. We've gotten better releases as well as more product. The first three months of 2005 are full of releases (classics and new films) and today we even got a film that had never been released on VHS. In March, Columbia is delivering a few titles that were never on home video. With Warner....just look at everything they are putting on DVD this year.
     
  7. Thomas T

    Thomas T Producer

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    Let me say this ... I'll be dead before DVD is phased out and I assure you I've got a good many years left (unless my doctor knows something I don't!)
     
  8. Roger Rollins

    Roger Rollins Supporting Actor

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    Amen Thomas T.

    Brilliantly (and eloquently stated) [​IMG]
     
  9. AaronMan

    AaronMan Second Unit

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    Well, the upcoming Hi-Def DVD format war will certainly slow down DVD's death.
     
  10. Joseph Bolus

    Joseph Bolus Cinematographer

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    I'd say 2017 would just about do it ... [​IMG]
     
  11. DanFe

    DanFe Second Unit

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    Joseph,

    I think I'll wait until the next format comes out.[​IMG]
     
  12. Chad R

    Chad R Cinematographer

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    Well, for DVD people only had to buy the player and hook it up to their existing DVD.

    HD-DVD will have to rely on consumers purchasing HDTVs which are still a little pricey for middle America. That will slow down the format's acceptance at least in relation to the acceptance of standard DVD.
     
  13. David Williams

    David Williams Cinematographer

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    What I am a little concerned about is when the HD DVDs are released this fall is that the studios might institute a window where new releases are only available in the HD format for a certain period before coming to DVD to help boost sales for the new format. Does anyone else share this concern or am I being too paranoid? [​IMG]
     
  14. David_Blackwell

    David_Blackwell Screenwriter

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    David Williams, you're being paranoid. The studios wouldn't do that because your SD-DVD buyers would be pissed that the SD-DVD version isn't out the same time as the HD-DVD version. Anyway, the SD-DVD version is the thing that brings in lots of money and no studio would want to interrupt that flow as long as SD-DVD sells good.
     
  15. Roger Rollins

    Roger Rollins Supporting Actor

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    Don't worry about that, David....

    The studios need the important DVD revenue. REGULAR DVD revenue, and they are not going to forego that for what will be a smaller business for several years to come.

    As an HD enthusiast, I can't wait for HD-DVD, but it will not stop me from buying excellent SD-DVDs of classics (which are my preference) that I know will make it to Hi-Def DVD in later years, if at all.

    Hey, I've got at least 500 LDs that will NEVER see the light of day on any kind of DVD, due to (justifiable) studio economics.

    Bottom Line: Do not worry. SD-DVD will thrive unabated as the format of populist choice for many years to come.

    Those that have an HDTV and go the HD=DVD route will obviously be in home theater heaven.

    When it comes to Blu-Ray, why do I fear that SONY will release a Blu-Ray PAN & SCAN of "Annie" or that MGM/SONY will release a non-anamorphic Blu-Ray of "Junior Bonner" or
    "I Could Go On Singing"???? Or that Disney will release an open matte Blu Ray of "Romy & Michelle".....\



    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  16. Walter Kittel

    Walter Kittel Producer

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    To answer the original question, I believe DVD will be supported for at least 10 to 15 years. There is simply too much money in the format for it to be abandoned any time soon.

    Regarding the question of exclusive windows. Once again it is a question of money. I seriously doubt that any studio will tinker with the cash cow that is DVD. Exclusive windows would limit their revenues but would not seriously drive HD-DVD sales due to entry restrictions facing a lot of people both in terms of player availability, player cost, and the HDMI requirements.

    I would suspect that any early adopters that meet the equipment requirements are going to jump into the pool regardless of title availability. Sure, more titles will generate sales, but they won't have to be exclusive for HD-DVD adopters to purchase them. I believe that folks will adopt HD-DVD / Blu-Ray for the performance, not the titles.

    - Waltter.
     
  17. Seth--L

    Seth--L Screenwriter

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    Studios are releasing HD-DVD/Blu-Ray discs now because they are fighting for what the next format will be (relatively long) in the future. For the people who have no interest in HD-DVD/Blu-Ray, they'll never know a format war is going on.

    I've said it once and I'll say it again: By the time HD-DVD/Blu-Ray is ready to go mainstream because enough people have finally purchased HD-TV's to appreciate/care about the video quality, video-on-demand will have become the clear future of home-video. My prediction: in 3 to 4 years studios will workout deals with cable providers to make thousands of new, recent, and classic films available on-demand, for a monthly subscription fee of course. This will replace pay-TV premium channels like HBO, Showtime and Starz. (HBO is the most profitable network and they make half their money from selling DVD's of their shows; I suspect they'll eventually just focus entirely on this.) The movies will be presented in HD. Studios should be able to make a lot more money than they do now with on-demand because they'll be eliminating the middle man, while getting you to pay for a lot of films that they could never sell on DVD.
     
  18. Roger Rollins

    Roger Rollins Supporting Actor

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    Walter: You're right on the money!
     
  19. Glenn Overholt

    Glenn Overholt Producer

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    I can't go for the video-on-demand. I'd rather have the disk in hand. Cable service being what it is, and with this winter being how it is, the occasioinal power blackout would stop me from ever even thinking about it. I've never paid for the movies CATV has on now, though, so maybe others might.

    As for quality, I am sure that the HD players will have component and even S-video and composite connections. They would have to be stupid not to include them. It would prevent anybody that didn't have an HDTV from ever buying a player. People buy players today that have component outputs and don't have those inputs on their TV's.

    If the players do start out at $1000.00, there wouldn't be any need to worry about the regular releases being stopped. However, if they do get down to $100.00, the studios wouldn't bat an eye about converting all of the plants over to HD/Blu-ray only.

    Glenn
     
  20. Seth--L

    Seth--L Screenwriter

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    How would your DVD player work without power?
     

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