Analyst: Netflix Could Lose 30% of Domestic Subs in 2015 (1 Viewer)

[Towergrove]

Interesting read. Many say how much Netflix is a saving them over cable but this is interesting:

Also, Strategy Analytics doesn't see Netflix as a direct replacement for cable. Netflix, despite the hype, still only offers a fraction of what is available via pay-TV, and this is not changing anytime soon. More importantly, media companies will continue to window their programming, first offering it on pay-TV and later on SVOD. Of course, then there's the economic factor of supply and demand.
"If Netflix ever really does replace cable, subscribers won't be paying $9 a month. It will cost more like $40 to $80 a month as studios and networks shift licensing fees to SVOD services. Plus your broadband bill will probably be a lot higher to compensate for lost video revenue. You still need the service provider to access OTT content. At the end of the day, both content owners and service providers will still get paid," Goodman said.

http://homemediamagazine.com/streaming/analyst-netflix-could-lose-30-domestic-subs-2015-34823

 

[bruceames]

Their streaming subs will suddenly decline 30% in one year after years of strong growth? Yeah riiight. Just another of a parade of anti-Netflix articles from disc-loving Home Media Magazine. I take it with a grain of salt just as much as I would take an article from a PC or streaming mag trashing physical media.

 

[Joshua Clinard]

I wouldn't say HMM is disc loving. They are very fond of UltraViolet over there.

 

[Ejanss]

For better or worse, Netflix is in the leading position to be the service that DOES replace cable--
It's content, not convenience, that's been leading the consumer's pick: HuluPlus accents on current-series reruns, but its movie section is virtually nonexistent apart from Criterion, Amazon consists chiefly of buying content (which most of the public is too cheap to do), and their Prime TV content seems to be limited only to "exclusives" of Viacom (MTV/Nick/CC), PBS and History/A&E/Food, and almost nothing else.

Unless HMM is using Netflix as a general coverall term for all subscription streaming, they don't seem to be suggesting any alternative.

 

[revgen]

I can buy his argument about HBO. I'm not so convinced about CBS.

CBS shows are already free over the air. CBS already offers them for free from their website, although that may change.

And for a so-called "analyst", he didn't even bother to mention all of the Netflix exclusive Marvel Studios series that will be airing in 2015. That's going to bring in subscribers from all over the world.

 

[Towergrove]

Their streaming subs will suddenly decline 30% in one year after years of strong growth? Yeah riiight. Just another of a parade of anti-Netflix articles from disc-loving Home Media Magazine. I take it with a grain of salt just as much as I would take an article from a PC or streaming mag trashing physical media.

No its says domestic subs. Domestic Subs are not growing very much in 2014 its the international thats growing right now. i can see this happening with all the upcoming competition. It is all speculation at this time but very interesting indeed.

 

[Towergrove]

I can buy his argument about HBO. I'm not so convinced about CBS.

CBS shows are already free over the air. CBS already offers them for free from their website, although that may change.

And for a so-called "analyst", he didn't even bother to mention all of the Netflix exclusive Marvel Studios series that will be airing in 2015. That's going to bring in subscribers from all over the world.

Thats if they are any good. Netflix originals have been hit and miss so far. I hope we get some good Marvel series next year. That would be fantastic revgen!

 

[Towergrove]

For better or worse, Netflix is in the leading position to be the service that DOES replace cable--

It has a long way to go in the USA before it does that. This chic wont hold her breath.

 

[revgen]

Thats if they are any good. Netflix originals have been hit and miss so far. I hope we get some good Marvel series next year. That would be fantastic revgen!

If they're even half as good as Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D, they'll be a hit for Netflix.

 

[bruceames]

No its says domestic subs. Domestic Subs are not growing very much in 2014 its the international thats growing right now. i can see this happening with all the upcoming competition. It is all speculation at this time but very interesting indeed.

International, domestic, whatever. Netflix is not going to lose 30% of its domestic subs next year. That's ridiculous. I would be suprised to see any decline at all.

 

[bruceames]

I wouldn't say HMM is disc loving. They are very fond of UltraViolet over there.

Yes, as long as they are a free value-adding disc pack-in.

 

[Ejanss]

I can buy his argument about HBO. I'm not so convinced about CBS.

Thing is, the public originally believes they're buying cable because they want 50 channels in a package, and they don't want what a thread/article earlier mentioned "Subscription burnout":
They don't want to subscribe to HBO here and CBS there, they want the service that promises to deliver HBO and CBS for one low fee, so they get fewer bills. Being "addicted" to following one particular show as it's currently airing ("I must subscribe to HBO for my Game of Thrones!"), instead of waiting for it to trickle down to Netflix a year later, starts carrying less weight when there's a monthly separate ticket price, and even a one-time Vudu Season Pass for just that one show starts looking better than one extra recurring subscription bill.

Which brings it back to whichever service is professionally diverse enough to deliver the most universal cross-section of content. The other major services are either a bit starved or are micro-focused on one aspect of their programming, and end up losing one customer over another.
Apart from that, HMM's biggest argument against Netflix is subjectively paranoid grumbles that prices will shoot up once they become a "monopoly" for non-cable streaming services, but there's only one way that could happen...And it's not by "losing customers".

 

[Towergrove]

International, domestic, whatever. Netflix is not going to lose 30% of its domestic subs next year. That's ridiculous. I would be suprised to see any decline at all.

we shall see. Growth domestically is at a crawl now.

 

[bruceames]

we shall see. Growth domestically is at a crawl now.

Adding 1 million domestic subs in 3 months is not a "crawl".

Neflix is still a great value and will likely be a better value than the offerings the start-up competitors coming out next year will have. Everybody and their mom knows about Netflix and has a Netflix button on their remote (that alone is a huge advantage which is hard to underestimate). There are no indicators to suggest a mass exodus which would be the case if they lost even 20%, much less 30%.

Edit: The article said growth could decline 30% next year, not that Netflix's sub base could decline 30%. That would make more sense. So while they will still continue to grow, they won't grow as fast. Well what else is new, the growth rate of their subs has been declining already.

 

[Walter-S_NC]

Right, a hockey stick growth need end at some point. Probably an indication of market saturation. Cord cutting and net neutrality are here to stay as fixtures of popular discourse for the foreseeable future.Sent from my iPad using HTF

 

[Towergrove]

Adding 1 million domestic subs in 3 months is not a "crawl". Neflix is still a great value and will likely be a better value than the offerings the start-up competitors coming out next year will have. Everybody and their mom knows about Netflix and has a Netflix button on their remote (that alone is a huge advantage which is hard to underestimate). There are no indicators to suggest a mass exodus which would be the case if they lost even 20%, much less 30%. Edit: The article said growth could decline 30% next year, not that Netflix's sub base could decline 30%. That would make more sense. So while they will still continue to grow, they won't grow as fast. Well what else is new, the growth rate of their subs has been declining already.

The article title and whats in the artice do not sync.

 

[Towergrove]

[quote indication of market saturation. Cord cutting and net neutrality are here to stay as fixtures of popular discourse for the foreseeable future.
Sent from my iPad using HTF[/quote]

The problem is wall street and the media like growth businesses not stagnate ones. We have seen this in the past anything less is than growth is considered a negative and is reported that way.

 

[Joshua Clinard]

Actually the headline states exactly what the article is about.

Analyst: Netflix Could Lose 30% Domestic Sub Growth in 2015

 

[bruceames]

Actually the headline states exactly what the article is about.

Analyst: Netflix Could Lose 30% Domestic Sub Growth in 2015

They corrected it. But it did say exactly what Tower has in the OP title, hence the confusion.