Oscar Watch 2005 - pre-awards discussion (1 Viewer)

[Quentin]

There were some SYRIANA pre-screenings over the weekend, and the buzz is pretty huge. Clooney's perf is getting a lot of attention, and some people are really excited about this film - as in, 'best of the year' excited.

 

[Adam_S]

Good to hear on Syriana, I thought for a while now Clooney is likely to take home an acting nomination for the film.

What are your thoughts on Brokeback Mountain, Quentin? competitive for BP and embraced by the academy or nominated in many categories but not in BP?

 

[Adam_S]

About a month ago I said on the Best Actor race, still seems pretty-on, I think, Spielberg films rarely get actor nominations:

Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
David Straithern - Good Night, and Good Luck
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
George Clooney - Syriana
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain

and at least two others still in competitive mix:
Nathan Lane - the Producers
Eric Bana - Munich


A tough year for major performances, Poland also includes
Cillian Murphy - breakfast on pluto
Raph Fiennes - constant gardener
Johnny Depp - libertine
Jeff Daniels - squid and the Whale
Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow
Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man

as all in contention, But I think those top seven are where the five nominations will come from.

 

[Nathan V]

FYI, that Tommy Lee Jones project is now getting a qualifying run on 12/14.

I do think Syriana will be big. The trailer is perfect; all the film has to do is live up to its potential.

Viewing the new Narnia trailer, I agree that it is out. Talking animals and kids do not equal oscar.

Munich trailer is outrageously good. Strong audience reaction.

I'm gonn say that Munich, Walk the Line, and Geisha are locks. Richard Corliss has a "puff" piece in TIME, which, although not a real review, is rather glowing, using adjectives like "emotionally sumptuous love story" and language like "[it] never hurries past the telling biographical detail of its four main characters. Nor does the movie's visual splendor ever obscure the furtive, assertive heart beating under the kimono. It's still early in the season of Oscar contenders, but Geisha has a shot to join Chicago as a Best Picture champ."

Phil Hoffman is going to win best actor. There are simply no two ways about it. I can't imagine what kind of performance would have to exist to top his role in Capote.

Jarhead is definitely out oscar-wise, but I encourage people to see it. It's subtle almost to the point of aggaravation. The subtext is only briefly hinted at by way of a monologue stated at the beginning and end of the film (with a single, key word change). I was reminded a lot of Salinger and Hemingway (The Sun Also Rises). The idea of characters being mostly oblivious to what's happening to them over time. Critics have complained of "emotional emptiness" and "unresolved story," which is precisely the point. It's a character-based drama, not centered around progressive events, and the emptiness concerning the characters' mental states is largely what the film is about, and is even alluded to through the narration explaining the film's title. Besides all that, the film is entertaining as all hell, and functions perfectly well as a simple but realistic portrayal of life in the desert, which I think has unfortunately led to many critics to treat it as only that. Sorry to ramble; I am getting frustrated by the panning of so many quality films in the past few years.

Regards,
Nathan

 

[Quentin]

I'm not sure. Haven't seen it and haven't heard anything. I can't imagine it doing anything at the box office, and that will hurt it for B.O. I'm now thinking Syriana is the more likely 'indie' nominee with Capote fading.

However, I expect to see Ledger get a nomination. It will be seen as a 'courageous' and 'risky' role against type, and he is a quality actor who critics are saying does very well.

 

[Kyle_D]

I'm not convinced on Geisha. The movie's visuals look incredible, but during the trailer I cringe every time I hear Zhang Ziyi try to deliver a line in English:

"A STO-ry like MINE has NE-ver been TOLD"

Really? Looks like a pretty standard rise-up-from-poverty tale that's been told for hundreds of years. And I get it already; she has blue eyes!

Maybe that's just me though. I'd agree that Munich and Walk the Line are locks.

Best Actor looks more and more like it's going to come down between Joaquin Phoenix and Philp Seymour Hoffman, though Clooney could sneak in there if the buzz on Syriana is right - weight gain/loss always impresses the Academy.

 

[Quentin]

His name is Joaquin Phoenix. The biggest thing against Phoenix now is the 'Ray' comparison...but, he is AWESOME. And, c'mon, he learned how to play guitar and sings his own friggin' songs!

He and Reese are solid frontrunners right now. The difference is, I don't think there are any PSH's challenging her on the actress side. Maybe Felicity Huffman?

 

[ChristopherBlig]

First of all, a win by any of the biopics in Best Actor will set off a cliche (Jamie Foxx won last year and it's unlikely lightning will strike twice) and I think with the great abundance, many of them unfortunately this year will cancel each other out

Another thing about that Geisha trailer, just because it's pronounced in the trailer doesn't mean the same result will be in the finished film.

I had seen the Syriana trailer and I think it's masterful...I hope the film will be the same, then again
anything is better than Gaghan's last venture "Abandon" (promising start than meandering).

Also both Brokebacks could cancel each other out if nominated or competing in the same category.

As for that Best Actor bunch, they will be tough this year but I believe Viggo Mortensen can be added to that category for Best Actor along with Maria Bello for Best Supporting Actress and Cronenberg for Best Director for I see unless King Kong has some muscle, New Line can use their strong Oscar lobby for History Of Violence which I believe deserves to be a contender. It might be disagreeable with some but then again so has a half a dozen other films that have been part of the final five in the last ten years or so.

Zach, I'm so with you on the possibility of Batman in the major categories, but they never follow through on comic book movies and even though Nolan's work was beyond exceptional, I doubt it, but not entirely. and besides, so far, anything with Ken Watanabe is credible this year.

As for the Producers, that fate should be seen with the opening of RENT at the end of November. It's possible like the biopics, this could cancel both musicals out. There has been no buzz from RENT and almost one month from the start of award season, still anything is possible!

 

[Nathan V]

Heath Ledger, nominated? Really?

Kyle, I personally agree with your thoughts on the accents in Geisha. Aside from Dion Beebe's cinematography, and as a great lover of the book, I think the film looks like a train wreck. I keep telling everyone I know that this should've been filmed in Japanese with a Japanese cast by someone other than the director of the painfully mediocre Chicago. (Yes, I realize this is an impossiblilty. We can dream, can't we?). However, Richard Corliss' opinion on the film is more important than mine. After all, he's seen it. Then again, he did say The Hours was the worst film of 2002. Go figure. To quote William Goldman, "nobody knows anything."

Regards,
Nathan

 

[Craig S]

Haven't checked in here in a while...

Jeff Wells also noted the rising buzz for Syriana and Clooney's performance. It's a longshot for sure, but could Clooney capture noms for Actor & Director? I think the last time that happened was 1977, when Woody Allen scored both nods for Annie Hall.

I agree about Walk The Line & Munich being locks. Like others, I remain to be convinced about Geisha.

Ledger is getting incredible notices for Brokeback. I've seen more than one person put him 3rd in line behind Hoffman and Phoenix. At this point I expect the nod to happen.

As for King Kong... if Tom O'Neill thinks it's going to win, it's pretty much dead. His track record as of late has been abysmal. Still hoping for good things from this one (the latest trailer is excellent), but the running time scares me.

Saw the trailer for The Producers... is it just me, or is this a really bad trailer?? It just laid an egg with the audience I saw it with.

Also saw the trailers for Syriana & Munich. Both look great.

I'm surprised I haven't seen a trailer for Mrs. Henderson Presents yet. This is the kind of film the Weinsteins usually start flogging months in advance.

 

[Craig S]

Kong is a Universal pic, so no conflict here for New Line. Bello probably has a better chance than Mortensen, if only because Best Actor is, as usual, very crowded (see Adam_S's post above). This film's going to be a hard sell with the Oscar crowd.

 

[Brandon Conway]

Babe, anyone?

 

[ZacharyTait]

After seeing North Country, I can only hope that Charlize Theron (Best Actress), Frances McDormand (Best Supporting Actress)and Richard Jenkins (Best Supporting Actor) are nominated. All three are wonderful.

 

[Haggai]

No, it's happened several times since then, at least five that I know of:

Warren Beatty for Reds
Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves
Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven, and again for Million Dollar Baby
Roberto Benigni for Life is Beautiful

If Clooney got an actor nom for Syriana and a director nom for Good Night, i.e. splitting the noms between two DIFFERENT movies in the same year, that could very well be a first.

 

[Adam_S]

Poland's 16 weeks to oscar column

Last week, Poland was dismissing Syriana now he has it as a contender and potential upset. Also he's moved Memoirs of a Geisha up to a frontrunner status in pretty much all categories. Perhaps the film is not the mind-numbing train-wreck the trailers make it look like, but I'm not yet convinced.

I might geta see Munich early, lock is November 30, final dubbing starts today and Williams is working on the score as we speak so no one sees this before December, but second week of Dec, hopefully I'll get a chance at a screening.

Adam

 

[Nathan V]

Brandon, Babe lost in every category it was nominated for except visual effects.

 

[Quentin]

But it WAS nominated. That's all we're talking about here.

 

[Quentin]

Poland is pushing Munich hard...likely a reaction to his feelings about Wells bashing the trailer. They are a great yin/yang comparison.

Most of the article is about a winner. I think it's early for that. I'm just interested in the noms for now. Geisha could pull up big...not just as the 'beautiful epic', but also as the romantic story that women LOVE. I know so many women looking so forward to this film. Including my mom. The book is a big hit with older women.

Getting away from BP for a sec, it sure looks like it's Reese vs. the quickly rocketing Felicity Huffman for Actress. And, I love Poland's comment on Uma - "it just feels like her year." You better believe it. There's always one or two people who seem to have their stars aligned at this time of year, and she is it. It's a fluff role, but it's an award that always seems to go to the role you don't expect. I think Uma is a big-time favorite.

 

[ZacharyTait]

After seeing Capote today, there is no doubt that Phillip Seymour Hoffman is getting an Oscar nomination.

 

[Ray Chuang]

By the way, USA Today in the November 11, 2005 edition mentioned this year we may not know who the true Oscar contenders are until literally the last week of the year. The article from the paper mentioned that AMPAS voters won't really start making up their minds until Munich, The Producers, and The New World comes out the last week of December 2005.