2005 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Casey Trowbridg]

You ain't kidding Terry.

Congratulations to Elektra for being the first real bomb of the year.

Meet the Fockers just keeps impressing.

I'm eager to see Million Dollar Baby hoping it gets a release near where I live eventually.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Hide and Seek" $7.9 million
#2 "Are We There Yet?" $3.9 million ($26.0 million) 28% Friday to Friday drop
#3 "Million Dollar Baby" $3.3 million ($12.6 million) 546% Friday to Friday increase
#4 "Coach Carter" $2.3 million ($47.8 million) 38% Friday to Friday drop
#5 "Meet the Fockers" $2.2 million ($252.5 million) 31% Friday to Friday drop
#6 "The Aviator" $2.0 million ($62.6 million) 33% Friday to Friday increase
#7 "In Good Company" $1.8 million ($31.6 million) 34% Friday to Friday drop
#8 "Sideways" $1.6 million ($35.3 million) 85% Friday to Friday increase
#9 "Racing Stripes" $1.3 million ($29.8 million) 18% Friday to Friday drop
#10 "The Phantom of the Opera" $1.1 million ($36.0 million) 23% Friday to Friday drop

"Hide and Seek" will debut with between $20-$25 million this weekend, giving star Robert De Niro his second consecutive #1 opening (as well as having two films in the top five) following the blockbuster "Meet the Fockers". "Are We There Yet?" had a surprisingly strong hold as it dropped off by only 28% from its pace from a week ago. Look for it to have a sophomore tally of about $12-$15 million.

Seven-time Oscar nominee "Million Dollar Baby" expanded to wide release this weekend and promptly saw a massive 546% increase in business. Look for the film to earn in the area of $10-$12 million this weekend. Five-time Oscar nominee "Sideways" also went wide this weekend and saw a 85% bump in business. Look for it to bring in about $4 million this weekend. 11-time Oscar nominee "The Aviator" also saw a post nomination bump to the tune of 33%. It should earn about $6 million this weekend.

The horror film "Alone in the Dark" crashed and burned upon release this weekend as it pulled in $845K yesterday, landing in the 13th slot in the top 20 list. Ouch.

 

[Brian Sheffield]

That's gotta hurt.

A new horror release with a blitz of advertising during genre shows, and yet it doesn't even make the top 10.

Heck even the bomb Elektra in it's third week beat it.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I initially misread this to indicate a 546% DROP! That'd be pretty remarkable - it'd mean refunds for millions of tickets!

 

[Malcolm R]

Well, "Alone..." is yet another horror film based on a video game, which is getting real old, real fast. Not to mention it's directed by the same guy who directed "House of the Dead" and we all know the quality of that film.

Plus the trailers were awful. I'm a horror fan, but have no desire to see this film at all.

Big boost for M$B, but still will have a hard time scraping together $10M for the weekend. It's not connecting with the masses for some reason. Did Warner's spend anything on marketing? I've not seen a single trailer for the film in theaters or on TV. My only knowledge of the film comes from general discussions here and articles in a couple magazines.

 

[Tino]

This IS it's first weekend in wide release, give it a chance.

I have seen plenty of TV, radio and print ads for M$B. Maybe Warners just doesn't care about Vermont.

 

[Patrick Sun]

I'd go see something, but we got sleet and frozen rain on the roads, so I stayed home on my usual movie-going day of the week.

 

[Nick Sievers]

And to think, this guy still has two or three more of these in the works.

 

[Jim Barg]

I'd like to know how in the hell that guy got Ben Kingsley to be in one of them, no less...

Alone in the Dark was exactly what you'd expect - godawful. However, if you want a good laugh, it's a fine choice. I went to see it last night with a buddy (I work at a theatre, so I didn't pay for it), and we sat in the back row working on our MST3K skills for 90 minutes. People were laughing as soon as the main credits began, one couple got up with about 15 minutes to go and walked out, and it was all topped with what can only be called a cross between opera, Evanescence and speed metal as the end credits rolled. I can't remember the last time I laughed so hard walking out of a film - I was still giggling about it on the way to work the afternoon.

We're going back before it leaves to expose another bad-movie lover to the wonder of Uwe Boll.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Hide and Seek" $22.0 million
#2 "Are We There Yet?" $17.0 million ($39.1 million) -8%
#3 "Million Dollar Baby" $11.8 million ($21.1 million) +615%
#4 "Coach Carter" $8.0 million ($53.5 million) -24%
#5 "Meet the Fockers" $7.57 million ($257.9 million) -21%
#6 "The Aviator" $7.51 million ($68.1 million) +55%
#7 "Sideways" $6.3 million ($40.0 million) +121%
#8 "In Good Company" $6.1 million ($35.9 million) -22%
#9 "Racing Stripes" $6.0 million ($34.5 million) -11%
#10 "Assault on Precinct 13" $4.2 million ($14.7 million) -35%

This weekend saw the five Best Picture nominees all take huge percentage bounces in the wake of last Tuesday's Oscar nominations. Both "Million Dollar Baby" and "Sideways" went into wide release this weekend, and both had fantastic outcomes as a result. Two-time Oscar winner Robert De Niro improved his box office clout by headlining two films in the top five.

After suffering through the humiliation of "Elektra", Fox bounced back this weekend by scoring the top grossing film in the land with the thriller "Hide and Seek". The film earned an impressive $22 million (earning a potent $7,321 per-theater average from it's 3,005 location, which led the top ten). The coming weeks will determine whether or not the movie will have strong legs or not, but Fox execs have to be happy with the thriller's strong start, especially considering that they thought it would open with no more than $18 million.

Sony's family comedy "Are We There Yet?" blew away expectations (of a steep decline) this weekend as it took only an 8% dip in business. The movie has so far tallied a little more than $39 million and will top out with well over $75 million before its all said and done. If the film continues to show this kind of staying power, it'll definitely end up flirting with a final mark in the neighborhood of $90-$100 million. We'll see what the coming weeks have in store for it.

WB's seven-time Oscar nominee, "Million Dollar Baby", expanded to 1,863 more locations this weekend (bringing it's total to a still modest 2,010 theaters) and saw a huge 615% increase in business. The film's $5,883 per-theater average was the third best of the top ten (behind "Hide and Seek" and "Are We There Yet?"). What's impressive is that the film's 2,010 locations is the third least amount of the top ten. Only "Sideways" (1,694) and "In Good Company" (1,960) are playing in fewer locations.

Last night 'Baby' earned director Clint Eastwood his second DGA award (he won his first for "Unforgiven", and went on to walk away with both the Best Picture and Best Director Oscars), which greatly improves the film's chances at the Oscars in four weeks. Expect the drama to have very strong legs during the next several weeks, especially if it walks away with some major awards on Oscar night.

Paramount continues their current winning streak as "Coach Carter" fell off by only 24% this weekend. The film has so far tallied $53.5 million and should top out in the neighborhood of $75 million.

The Universal/DreamWorks blockbuster, "Meet the Fockers", became the 33rd film to crack the $250 million plateau last Thursday. This weekend saw the film suffer only a 21% dip in business, bringing the comedy's total to just under $258 million. The movie is still on course to conclude matters in the area of $275-$285 million.

Best Picture front-runner, "The Aviator", took a big 55% increase this weekend on the heels of earning 11 Oscar nods last Tuesday (the most for any of the nominated films). The movie has so far earned just over $68 million and now will not only become the biggest hit film in the career of director Martin Scorsese (passing the $79.0 million haul of 1991 film "Cape Fear"), but also has a good shot at becoming his first $100 million-plus earner.

While last night's DGA win for Clint Eastwood might have dashed Scorsese's Oscar hopes for the Best Director award (Scorsese has been nominated six times for the DGA award, as well as six times for the Oscar-four for Best Director and two for screen writing-he's yet to win either award), "The Aviator" is still the odds-on favorite to walk away with the Best Picture Oscar.

Fox Searchlight's five-time nominee, "Sideways", expanded to 995 more theaters this weekend, which resulted in a massive 121% bump in the film's numbers. The dramedy has so far earned $40.0 million and should have a very leggy run from here on out.

Universal's comedy, "In Good Company", was hit with only a 22% decline this weekend. The film has so far earned just under $36 million. WB's "Racing Stripes" took a meager 11% dip as the film's total hit $34.5 million. Both "In Good Company" and "Racing Stripes" are going to end their respective runs north of the $50 million mark, making them solid performers for their studios.

The Focus Features action flick, "Assault on Precinct 13", took a modest 35% hit this weekend. The film has so far tallied $14.7 million and should top out in the neighborhood of only $30 million. Expect the film to have stronger results once it reaches DVD this summer.

Outside of the top ten saw the other two Best Picture nominees also have fat percentage increases. Miramax's "Finding Neverland" saw a 121% bump in the wake of it's seven nominations, while six-time nominee "Ray" experienced a 103% increase in business. 'Neverland' has so far earned $35.8 million, while "Ray" has tallied an impressive $73.7 million. "Ray" hits DVD this Tuesday.

Next will see Sony's horror flick "Boogeyman" hit theaters, as well as Universal's romantic comedy "The Wedding Date". Also expect the holdovers to remain strong as the (so far) record pace of 2005 continues.

 

[Tim Glover]

Nice to see this bump for Neverland. It's a powerful film that deserves some box office muscle. ( I think it was very poorly marketed too, but that's another issue:b )

Good work Terry.

 

[Haggai]

Terry, I didn't read this thread much last year, so maybe you addressed this somewhere previously, but do you work in the movie business? Your weekly posts give me the distinct impression that you actually know what you're talking about, unlike most of the rest of us here at HTF (well, I'll speak for myself there, no offense intended to anyone else).

 

[Scott Weinberg]

Couldn't disagree more. Compared to the handful of movie forums I visit, this one features MANY konwledgable, polite and articulate movie freaks.

But I do agree that Terry's box-office recaps are consistently entertaining and very well-written.

 

[Haggai]

Well, yeah, I was basically kidding there, I wouldn't hang out here if I didn't enjoy and respect people's input. But Terry gives the impression that he really knows something about the movie business itself. I feel that I'm a very knowledgable movie fan, as are the large majority of people who frequently post here at HTF, but I don't think many of us have a whole lot of in-depth knowledge of how the industry really works (certainly I don't).

 

[TerryRL]

I know my fair share about "the biz". Let's just say that it never hurts to know a few people.

I'm glad you all enjoy reading my weekly reports, thanks for the compliments.

 

[Brian Sheffield]

How sad is it that Alone in the Dark only hit #14 on the charts?

It's gotta hurt the chances on any more video game to movie translations. Though, it's not like that would be a bad thing.

 

[TerryRL]

"Alone in the Dark" did crash and burn, but it only takes one big hit to turn things around. If this summer's "Doom" becomes a big hit (followed next year by "Spy Hunter") than expect a flood of video game based movies to hit the big screen.

The bigger the hit, the quicker a property like "Halo" will get the green light to go into production.

 

[Joel C]

I'd hope the failure of AITD would end Uwe Boll's career before it would bring an end to the videogame-to-movie genre.

 

[Adam_S]

Isn't Halo one of Jeff Silver's babies? anyway the trick there is to find some sort of character (other than Cortana) that has any character--after that it's simply a matter of connecting plot points between massive battles that the marines always eventually win through cunning, stubbornness and fortuitious kick ass upgrades of their gear.

:p

 

[Romier S]

Nope. The guy has about completed Bloodrayne which looks awful. Then he gets the chance inject his penchant for disastrous film making into FarCry and Hunter: The Reckoning (both of which are not exactly what I would call "in need" of a movie.)

I'd also be suprised to see "Doom" come out a success. I'm not saying it will crash and burn at the level of Alone in the Dark but I don't see it going on to be a huge hit either. The Rock along with the Doom name may give it some pull at the box office. However the fact they have completely jettisoned any semblance of Hell as a plot point ( ) and replaced it with a creature-creating virus could be enough to alienate the fan base.

I mentioned this in another Uwe Boll thread and I want to mentioned it here; My only real hope for a good videogame to movie translation lies in Silent Hill. It's due in 2006 and is being written by Roger Avary who is a big fan of the games and has been working hard on the script and directed by Christoph Gans of Brother of the Wolf fame.