Mark, An alternative idea comes to my mind on reading through the posts here. It is possible that what really happens is any given person has a certain amount of money they're willing to venture on a "new" (or not-so-new as the case may be for us non-early adopters) gadget. In that case, a person might wait until any particular kind of player gets to, say, $300-ish whether that means waiting two years or five years or whatever. Of course it's a totally untestable theory but IMO it fits with the anecdotal reports in this thread as well as any other explanation. My thinking would imply that you can't really infer anything about the relative pricing-vs-time patterns of DVD and Blu-Ray if what's really determining each individual's entry into the technology is the point at which it reaches their comfort level.