Whoops! Another asteroid just missed us.

Discussion in 'Archived Threads 2001-2004' started by Tom Johnson, Mar 19, 2002.

  1. Tom Johnson

    Tom Johnson Stunt Coordinator

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 1998
    Messages:
    158
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
  2. MickeS

    MickeS Producer

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2000
    Messages:
    5,058
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Yuck. These things are too many and too short between lately... or are they just better at detecting them? Either way, it's scary.

    /Mike
     
  3. Julie K

    Julie K Screenwriter

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2000
    Messages:
    1,962
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    People are looking for them and thus we see far more than we used to.
     
  4. Dheiner

    Dheiner Gazoo

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2001
    Messages:
    2,915
    Likes Received:
    157
    Trophy Points:
    4,110
    Location:
    'skonsen
    Real Name:
    John Dhein
    More evidence that we need to get off this rock.
     
  5. Dalton

    Dalton Screenwriter

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2001
    Messages:
    1,198
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Rhode Island
    Real Name:
    Dalton
    We better keep Bruce Willis, Ben Affleck and the other boys informed in case we need them to save us.[​IMG]
     
  6. Leo Hinze

    Leo Hinze Stunt Coordinator

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 1999
    Messages:
    222
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Holy Shit! The odds of collision are only 1 in 10 million!?!?

    I doubt that number. Why? Because the odds of someone winning the Texas Lottery are 1 in 19 million, and people regularly win it. I imagine the odds of other state lotterys are similar. So people win those lotterys all the time. Your odds of getting hit by lighting are very high. People get hit by lightning all the time. Not to mention the fact that space is HUGE and the Earth is teeny tiny and an asteroid is infinitesimal.

    I need a basic statistics primer. So how is it that something with odds similar to things that happen all the time does not happened more regularly?

    And how did 'they' come up with those odds? And who are 'they'? All joking aside, it would be nice to have some confidence in those odds. If the odds are 1 in 5 that the Earth is going to be hit by a planet killer, I would like to devotesome resources to the problem. If they are 1 in 5 trillion, I think I can put that on my to-do later list.
     
  7. RobertR

    RobertR Lead Actor

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 1998
    Messages:
    9,764
    Likes Received:
    193
    Trophy Points:
    9,110
     
  8. Leo Hinze

    Leo Hinze Stunt Coordinator

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 1999
    Messages:
    222
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Yeah, Robert, I started to actually think about this after I posted my message[​IMG] You're right - the odds of someone winning the lottery are probably very low. The odds of one specific person winning the lottery are very high.
     
  9. RobertR

    RobertR Lead Actor

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 1998
    Messages:
    9,764
    Likes Received:
    193
    Trophy Points:
    9,110
    Leo:
    [​IMG] I'm also curious how the odds of getting hit by an asteroid are derived.
     
  10. JasenP

    JasenP Screenwriter

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 1999
    Messages:
    1,280
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Kalamazoo, MI
    Real Name:
    Jasen
    You know I am worried about this type of news.
    I can be reached by:
    - E-Mail
    - Work Phone
    - Cel Phone
    - Home Phone
    - Pager
    - Fax
    - Text Messages
    I can:
    Watch Television
    Surf the net
    read the USPS mail
    AND I NEVER HEARD A DAMN THING ABOUT THIS UNTIL IT WAS ALL OVER AND DONE WITH!!!!!
     
  11. nolesrule

    nolesrule Producer

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2001
    Messages:
    3,084
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Clearwater, FL
    Real Name:
    Joe Kauffman
    But JasenP, that's the point. Even the scientists didn't know about it until after it had passed. The whole point was that we can't detect asteroids coming from the direction of the sun because we can't "see" them. It's an astronomical blind spot.
     
  12. Brian Perry

    Brian Perry Cinematographer

    Joined:
    May 6, 1999
    Messages:
    2,807
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Why can't we see them? It's not as though the sun is in the way all the time, is it?

    Also, at what point would the earth's gravity pull the rock into itself? This one was only 1.2x the distance to the moon. If it were .5x, would gravity pull it in? (How fast was it going?)
     
  13. Danny R

    Danny R Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    May 23, 2000
    Messages:
    871
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    I'm not certain if any of these "statistics" have any real meaning, but here is how they seem to be presented on the JPL website :
    JPL estimates that there are at most only 1000 sizeable asteroids in near earth orbit that have a chance of striking Earth.
    They also use a 100 year range as their basic timeframe. Thus a strike by a sizeable asteroid in the next 100 years is only 1:1000.
    If you decrease the time down to 10 years, it becomes 1:10000. Decrease it down to 1 year and the odds increase to 1:100000.
    I imagine the 1 in 10 million estimate is some combination of the above, as they are probably assuming that the asteroid in question might itself come into contact with another asteroid, deflecting its course into earth.
     

Share This Page