OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (2 Viewers)

[Eric Franklin]

Those CMIYC numbers are wrong. BOM made a mistake. The real number for CMIYC for Thursday is $4,636,777. The TTT number is correct though.

 

[Pete_w]

Thank god they are wrong.....
and they have been corrected at Box Office Mojo.

 

[Alex Spindler]

What Malcolm doesn't tell everyone is that the time period between the morning of January 3rd and the evening of January 4th is his "Groundhog Day". He knows that much about all of us.

 

[Adam_S]

This has been quite an interesting and long lived thread that has effectively catalouged an interesting year for movies and box office. I think it's a thread worthy of being archived--anyone else agree? could a mod archive this thread then?

Adam

 

[Matt Stone]

I'm pretty sure (as we discovered with our bigass Star Wars thread) that it will be automatically archived in the software archive. Pages started disappearing from the beginning of the Star Wars thread, and then Dan Brecher discovered them in the Software Archives.

I'll forward your question to Dan though, to make sure.

 

[Vickie_M]

Be sure to see TTT today to celebrate Tolkien's eleventy-first birthday! Maybe we can push that crossing-over date ahead.

I did! I went to see it last night specifically because it was his birthday. I also finished re-reading FOTR and started re-reading TTT. Last night's viewing was my 5th (and probably final) time seeing it in the theater (unless, of course, they add on a ROTK preview). I saw FOTR 9 times in the theater, but TTT doesn't have quite the same repeatability factor for me as Fellowship did.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "The Two Towers" $7.7 million ($245.7 million)

#2 "Catch Me If You Can" $6.5 million ($82.8 million)

#3 "Two Weeks Notice" $3.7 million ($61.4 million)

#4 "Maid in Manhatten" $2.9 million ($70.6 million)

#5 "About Schmidt" $2.5 million ($5.9 million)

#6 "Gangs of New York" $2.1 million ($37.9 million

#7 "Drumline" $1.76 million ($44.0 million)

#8 "The Wild Thornberrys" $1.70 million ($27.7 million)

#9 "Chicago" $1.5 million ($5.7 million)

#10 "Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets" $1.4 million ($248.8 million)

 

[Dennis Pagoulatos]

Jeez...does Potter even have a chance to beat out Shrek or Monsters Inc for domestic gross?? I don't think it can reach Shrek...

-Dennis

 

[MikeRS]

.....but TTT doesn't have quite the same repeatability factor for me as Fellowship did.

I know what you mean.
And go GONY go. If Harvey can get it to 60 million before Oscar nominations are announced, he has done great by this masterpiece.

 

[Brian W.]

So are we taking bets yet on the date that TTT outperforms COS?

Well, according to Box Office Mojo in the wee hours of this morning, it already has. Its All Time Grossers list has TTT at $262 million. Is this a mistake or do they have an early weekend estimate they're not posting elsewhere yet? (EDIT: I guess its Brandon Gray's estimate based on Friday's studio estimate. I'm surprised he would go ahead and put an estimate on the (highest grossing) list.)

At any rate, it looks like TTT dropped quite a bit this weekend -- over 50% from the previous Friday. CMIYC opened wider this weekend and took away some of its business. Also, I don't think the weekend after New Years is real big. I went out to Amoeba on Sunset Blvd. about 10:30 tonight (Saturday), and both my friend and I commented that we'd never seen so little traffic down there on a Saturday night.

If TTT did surpass $260 mil. it should only take another 2 to 2 1/2 weeks to hit $300 mil.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Well, there is football on Saturday AND Sunday at prime movieviewing hours for the next few weeks. School is also restarting so TTT will take a nasty dive. The drop between this weekend and next (and this week and next) will be far more telling than the plunge it is taking now.

Good to see the other films doing decent business for themselves!

Take care,

Chuck

 

[Eric Franklin]

Weekend estimates

The Two Towers 25.65 / 261.7

Catch Me If You Can 21.27 / 97.6

Two Weeks Notice 11.62 / 69.3

Maid in Manhattan 9.00 / 76.7

About Schmidt 8.75 / 12.2

Gangs of New York 7.4 / 47-2

Drumline 5.6 / 47.8

Wild Thornberrys 5.5 / 31.5

Chicago 5.02 / 9.3

Harry Potter: COS 4.54 / 252.0

 

[TerryRL]

TTT is finally showing some signs of slowing down as it took a 47% hit this weekend. With over $261 million in the bank so far, the movie is headed for a final domestic tally in the area of $350 million, thus making it one of only seven films to earn over that amound domestically. With the movie doing such strong business overseas, it's definitely going to flirt with a having final worldwide tally of $1 billion. Stay tuned.

CMIYC is showing solid legs and will pass the century mark by Tuesday. This one will no doubt end up earning well over $150 million.

Both "Two Weeks Notice" and "Maid in Manhatten" also had solid holds from last weekend. The two romantic comedies seemed poised to each end up earning over $100 million.

"About Schmidt" did very well this weekend as it finally went into wide release after spending the previous three weeks in limited release. With awards season in full tilt, look for 'Schmidt' to benefit greatly from it and have a long and successful run in theaters, much like his 1997 hit "As Good As It Gets" did.

GONY has showed solid legs since it's release and has done more than hold it's own. The film has so far tallied $47.2 million. Miramax has done a wonderful job pushing this movie and it has a fair shot at passing the $79.0 million haul of "Cape Fear" to become director Martin Scorsese's biggest hit film.

"Drumline" has also shown strong legs and should end it's run with between $65 and $70 million. "The Wild Thornberrys" will end up with about $45 million by the time it's run concludes. "Chicago" is still enjoying a strong run in limited release and "Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets" passed the $250 million mark. Look for COS to end it's run with between $265 and $275 million domestically.

 

[MikeRS]

Yay GONY!

 

[Matt Stone]

Nice numbers for CMIYC and GONY. We just need to wait a couple more months to see if TTT gets an Oscar Nom bump, and then another month for an Oscar Win bump

 

[TerryRL]

No disrespect to TTT, but I think the movie that will garner the most Oscar attention will be "The Return of the King". All involved say it's the biggest and best film of the trilogy and probably the one most likely to win Peter Jackson the Best Director and Best Picture trophies.

I do expect TTT to get it's share of nods, but I think ROTK will not only be the biggest hit movie of 2003, but the film of the trilogy that captures the most awards.

 

[Tim Glover]

Wow. TerryRL you had me at "No disrespect to TTT, but I think the movie that will garner the most Oscar attention will be "The Return of the King". All involved say it's the biggest and best film of the trilogy and probably the one most likely to win Peter Jackson the Best Director and Best Picture trophies.

I do expect TTT to get it's share of nods, but I think ROTK will not only be the biggest hit movie of 2003, but the film of the trilogy that captures the most awards"...

Your info sounds great and makes me long for ROTK even more!

 

[Brian W.]

The drop between this weekend and next (and this week and next) will be far more telling than the plunge it is taking now

Yeah, I guess Fellowship had a drastic drop this weekend last year, too -- 40.5%.

With $61.5 million for the whole week, if TTT can manage to drop by not much more than 1/3 this week, it will have surpassed $300 mil. by the end of next weekend and probably would outgross FOTR by that Friday.

 

[Lou Sytsma]

The BO for the weekend was soft period. The fact the TTT managed to hold on to the number one spot is impressive.

Will the other movies build momentum or start to drop? This will be the telling week with school starting up.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

I went to TTT today hoping that the crowds would have died down. Thank goodness my wife and I got there early as the show ended up to be sold out. Based on this, TTT seems to have a lot more life left at the box office.

~Edwin