*** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread *See Post 957, p. 32* (1 Viewer)

[Brandon Conway]

I would think that Warner would like to have as small a production run on those HD-DVD titles as possible, which is certainly one reason for the 3-week delay period.

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

Ofcourse the primary reason for continuing to release on HD-DVD until May end, is probably contract obligations to the HD-DVD format. Personally, this policy bothers me because due to this, Warner will continue to restrict their HD quality and features to fit in with HD-DVDs space and bandwith limitations. Once Warner stops releasing on HD-DVD, they should be able to go all out and tweak their releases for Blu-Ray. Ofcourse this is based on specualtion and for all we know, Warner may continue to release titles with higher compression rates and lossy audio tracks with future double dips in mind. If only Warner would have delayed 'I Am Legend' to after the May end deadline.

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

Blu-ray Dominates Disc Sales Chart Post-Warner Announcement


"Though Blu-ray has outsold HD DVD in overall disc sales by a factor of nearly 2:1 since the start of 2007, last week saw the largest gulf between the two rival formats yet, with Blu-ray commanding an 85% share of all high-def discs sold".

Also, according to Home Media Magazine, the Nielson VideoScan data shows Blu-ray held all the top ten spots on the HD sales chart for the week ending January 13th.

 

[Brandon Conway]

There are Warner titles finishing QC right now that won't street until November '08. I wouldn't expect to see unique encodes for Warner BDs until late this year or early 2009.

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

That to me, is the most dissapointing news since Paramount decided to go single format.

 

[Brandon Conway]

Well, it's simply the reality of Warner's long term planning. There's a few HD-DVD discs that are finished that will never see the light of day in the US because their street dates were scheduled for after May 31st.

 

[Brandon Conway]

You know, I was just thinking about this reported 85:15 BD:HD sales advantage for the week, and truth be told I can't see it getting better for HD-DVD any time soon. I mean, taking just the six major studio distributors (Universal, Paramount/DreamWorks, Warner/New Line, Sony, Fox/MGM, Disney) and 3 minors (Lionsgate, Starz, Weinstein) into account, this is how the release schedule shapes up for the weeks after this report and through the end of February:

1/15

Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate)
Mr. Woodcock (New Line)

1/22

The Game Plan (Disney)
Saw IV (Lionsgate)

1/29

Daddy Day Camp (Sony)
Damages - Season 1 (Sony)
The Invasion (Warner)
Monty Python's Life of Brian (Sony)

2/5

Across the Universe (Sony)
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner)
The Brave One (Warner)
The Brave One (Warner) (Possible 3-week delay ahead?)
Crimson Tide (Disney)
Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal)
The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony)
Me, Myself and Irene (Fox)
Wall Street (Fox)

2/12

Becoming Jane (Disney)
Gone Baby Gone (Disney)
No Reservations (Warner)
No Reservations (Warner) (Possible 3-week delay ahead?)
We Own the Night (Sony)

2/19

American Gangster (Universal)
In the Valley of Elah (Warner)
In the Valley of Elah (Warner) (Possible 3-week delay ahead?)
The Invasion (Warner)
Michael Clayton (Warner)
Michael Clayton (Warner) (Possible 3-week delay ahead?)
Run Lola Run (Sony)

2/26

30 Days of Night (Sony)
Beowulf (Paramount)
Justice League: The New Frontier (Warner)
To Kill a King (Starz)

That's a lot of blue compared to the red. 25 BD releases, and 8 HD-DVD releases. And that's if those 4 Warner titles don't get the 3-week delay the others have already got, which would push 3 of them to March. That would then be a 25:5 title advantage, with 2 of those 5 getting released 3 weeks after their BD counterpart. Universal and Paramount are releasing 3 titles over the next 7 weeks.

3

Yikes. HD-DVD will be damn lucky to get 20% of the market for Jan/Feb '08.

 

[Douglas Monce]

I believe we saw the same pattern from HD DVD last year. Very few announcements at CES. Then coming slow out of the gate in January and February.

Doug

 

[Cees Alons]

Frankly, I prefer a policy of silence followed by later announcements leading to correctly honoured releases over abundance of announcements followed by repetitive delays and postponements.


Cees

 

[Bleddyn Williams]

Amen.

 

[Dave Moritz]

20th Century is coming out with some good Blu-ray titles, just hope we do not have to many delays.

20th Century Fox:
Wall Street 2/5
Me, Myself and Irene 2/5
Ice Age 3/4
Independence Day 3/11
I Robot 3/11
Preditor 4/15
Commando 4/15
Master And Commander ?/?

Disney / Buena Vista:
The Game Plan 1/22
Crimson Tide 2/5
The Rookie 3/4
Dan In Real Life 3/11
Hidalgo 4/1
Unbreakable 4/1
Coyote Ugly 4/1


Sony Pictures:
Monty Python's Life Of Brian
Daddy Day Camp 1/29
The Jane Austen Book Club 2/5
Across The Universe 2/5
We Own The Night 2/11
30 Days Of Night 2/26
Gattaca 3/11
Dogma 3/11

Warner Bro:
The Brave One 2/5
The Assassination Of Jesse James 2/5
No Reservations 2/12
Appleseed: Ex Machina 3/11
Bonnie And Clyde 3/25
Twister 5/6

MGM/UA:
Princess Bride ?/?
The Amityville Horror ?/?

I can not wait to own Crimson Tide, Independence Day and I Robot as far as Blu-ray that are scheduled for the next two months. There are some others I want as well but I am hoping to hear about some other release for 2008. I would love to see Lord Of The Rings come out this year but I have a feeling that we will not see it until 2009.

HD-DVD

Universal:
Elizabeth: The Golden Age 2/5
American Gangster 2/19
Fletch 3/11

Paramount:
Beowulf 2/26

 

[Paul.S]

I second that "Amen" (and underscore it with the frustration borne of that certain delay-prone studio then releasing pricey BDs that don't port over all the supplemental material from the SD DVD).

And although we don't have a street yet, we can add Jack Ryan to the Q1 red slate.

 

[FrancisP]

The disparity between BR releases and HD-dvd releases are more philosophy than anything else. Universal and Paramount are not big believers in catalog titles and thus far they have been right. I like catalog titles but I will admit the market is not there. It is a problem endemic to br and hd-dvd. The Warner catalog titles have not done very well with many selling less than 1,000 in combined br and hd-dvd sales.

As for the low hd-dvd sales, I'm not surprised. Many people are holding off. They are waiting to see what Toshiba does and whether they will fold. Also another reason is that very few people are buying warner titles which make up a good percentage. There are probably varied reasons. Some are likely holding out for firesales on Warner titles.

These weekly sales figures do not mean anything. It's just something to talk about. The only figures are Transformers, largest selling hd disc in exclusive releases and The Bourne Ultimatum which sold upwards of 200,000. The next critical numbers are Bee Movie and American Gangster. If these titles do well, it seems unlikely Paramount and Universal would end their relationship with hd-dvd.

Myself, I am angry with Warner's lies. I refuse to buy any more warner hd-dvd titles even if they gave them away. I will make do with my dvd copies. As a matter of fact, I have even cancelled any plans to buy Warner dvds for the time being.

 

[Jason_V]

Am I correct in assuming you are then "boycotting" any Paramount HD DVD releases? It seems to me they announced a bunch of Blu Ray titles with no intention of releasing them when going to HD immediately.

 

[Brandon Conway]

Unlike last year, the lack of HD-DVD titles in Q1 is REALLY bad for Toshiba. This is the moment, post-Warner news, that they need to convince retailers to carry their product. How are they going to do that with 15-20% of the sales?

Releasing more titles in May-June means nothing if retailers aren't bothering to carry the format by then!

I just don't see how anyone can spin the 85:15 number and the release schedule for the next 7 weeks as anything positive for HD-DVD.

 

[Cees Alons]

No one can and no one does. But then again, this is not the spinmaster's site...


Cees

 

[Brandon Conway]

Well, I was mainly responding to Francis' sentiment that this is mainly due to a difference in studio "philosophy" and that "These weekly sales figures do not mean anything."

 

[Cees Alons]

Brandon,

OK. That could be labeled as "playing it down", but not "giving it a positive spin". And Francis also provides us amply with arguments.


Cees

 

[Brandon Conway]

Splitting hairs on semantics, I guess.

He does make logical counterpoints, but I don't think they are ones that retailers will be happy with, and that's the biggest hurdle for HD-DVD in Q1, IMO.

 

[FrancisP]

You are talking about at least 21 catalog titles to one and it doesn't matter?
Let's say those 21 catalog titles sell 100 discs. The hd-dvd catalog title sells 500. You have a better than 4-1 margin for bluray even if the hd-dvd catalog title had a 5-1 advantage over other individual catalog titles.

I don't see major retailers dropping hd-dvd. They may cut back on space since hd-dvd is selling fewer titles. Also fewer dvds are being released so there is less space. Certainly first run features like Bee Movie and American Gangster will be available.

As to Paramount, what they did was nothing like Warner. Paramount did not release a press release saying they would not be going exclusive for a long time. Warner did release a statement saying that. As a matter of fact, the moderator on another forum contacted Warner's VP and another high ranking official even after the press release was sent out. They again adamently denied Warner was going exclusive. This was going on even while Warner was indeed negotiating exclusivety. Even while they were doing this they were encouraging people to buy the Harry Potter movies and Bladerunner. I know the br people want to muddy the water but the two situations are different.