Beyond HD-DVD? (1 Viewer)

[Ben Crouse]

I'm contemplating whether or not to begin building a "collection" of DVD's now. I have a few DVDs now (14) and like the idea of building a library of my favorite films. But when I think about the long term though, I know in 5 years or so I'll end up having to replace my entire collection with HD-DVD, and that I don't like.

So I'm thinking about holding off until HD-DVD comes along to build my definitive "collection." But then I think, what if like VHS and DVD before it, some new technology eclipses HD-DVD ten years down the line? Do you think that's possible?

I tend to think HD-DVD will be the end of the line for home theater software, but I'm not sure. What do you guys think? Could it get any better than HD-DVD?

 

[Josh Lowe]

there's never going to be an end of the line. as filmmaking technology progresses, home theater technology will progress. i doubt HD-DVD will be 1080p. and when filmmaking technology completely exceeds the capabilities of what can be put out in HD, it'll be time to upgrade again. just get your stuff now and enjoy it rather than fret over things that are inevitable.

 

[Andy_MT]

here in 2093 we use these very cool ultra thin crystal wafers [DVCW - digtal versital crystal wafers] as a medium to store all digital data. the picture quality would almost mirror that of real life, except for one thing ... they still use edge enhancement :frowning:
moral of story : they'll always be something better. live for the now !

 

[Joseph DeMartino]

Absolutely. Buy now and to hell with trying to "future proof" yourself, because there will always be something new. BTW, I wouldn't worry too much about HD-DVD being some kind of mainstream format in 5 years. DVD itself has barely managed that feat in 5 years, and it is still far behind VHS in market penetration. The studios are not going to abandon DVD anytime soon. The thing that everybody forgets in these HD-DVD discussions is that you need an HDTV to watch the things on. Last time I checked these were not exactly flying out the doors of most home electronics places, and most of the country still couldn't get HDTV signals. Until there are HD sets in at least 50% of American homes, HD-DVD is going to be a niche product, hardly worth thinking about.

(Although I also wouldn't hold off on HD-DVD when that does become a major project, because there won't be anything to replace - at least in terms of picture quality - until there is something better than HDTV to watch it on. They could come up with a 2160p DVD in a lab somewhere, but if the best resolution your television is capable of displaying is 1080p, this isn't going to do anybody much good. It has taken us nearly 10 years to start rolling HDTV out. How long do you think it will take to completely revamp the American television broadcast system again once HDTV becomes a real standard?)

Regards,

Joe

 

[Joseph DeMartino]

"I want to buy a CD player, I really do. But I won't do it until they give me a note promising that this is the last thing they're ever going to invent. You know those people you see wandering the streets of New York, muttering to themselves? They're not crazy. They're the people who bought 8-track tapes." -- Rita Rudner, circa 1990

Joe

 

[Ben Crouse]

They could come up with a 2160p DVD in a lab somewhere,

Let's say they could do that... would it be worth the bother? I mean really, in terms of a home theater, is anyone going to see an appreciable difference in picture quality?

At some point aren't we all as human beings going to have to stop and say "yes, this is a high enough resolution"?

I guess the real question I'd like to pose is this: Once high definition is the standard, is there any point in going further?

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Yes.

It depends on screen size and viewing distance. 1080I looks good. 1080P looks fantastic. But if you move closer...say around 1 screen-width away...then a higher-resolution signal would show improvement still

Have you ever been to an IMAX theater? You sit much closer typically than 1 screen-width away. 1080P will NOT duplicate a 70 mm experience for you in this manner.

 

[Keith Helms]

At some point aren't we all as human beings going to have to stop and say "yes, this is a high enough resolution"?

When I can't tell the difference between the image on the TV and real life, then they've gone far enough. If I could stand an actor in a TV shaped cardboard box with a hole where the screen would be next to a TV with a picture of the actor and I can't easily tell which is which, then I'll be satisfied!

 

[Frank]

I suspect that in 10 years you will be able to buy a device that will play a current DVD and make it look better then HDTV does currently.
A sophisticated enough device could play a DVD and analyse many frames prior to displaying them.
Examining many frames might enable it to create a much higher resolution image and even create new intermediate frames on the fly. It might even be able to pick up enough cues to convert it to true 3D.
I believe it is already possible to do this but not in real time and not cheap.
Frank

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Frank,

You're right on the money.

The $$$ Teranex processor comes close to doing just that already. I uses proprietary imaging algorithms recently declassified from the military to "enhance" image resolution in just that way.

I agree with you. In 10 years sofware to do this kind of math will be cheap and the algorithms will be very good. I wouldn't be surprised if many of Today's DVD could be played back with near-HD quality. Indeed, over at AVS some users of the Taranex processor say that this is pretty much what they're enjoying with DVD software right now.

-dave

 

[Neil Joseph]

I have not read any of the responses, yet. All I can say is begin your DVD collection now. I would not go overboard myself but a collection of 50-100 movies is reasonable if you worry about the future. There will always be a new technology ready to replace the existing but if you worry about the future then you may never have a collection of films. I feel evetually though, hardcopies of movies may not even exist. With connectivity speeds increasing, movies and games will all be downloaded from a server farm for a nominal fee per viewing.

 

[Ben Crouse]

Thanks for the comments guys. I checked out a little bit about the Teranex processor, which I had never heard of before, and it does sound really cool.

I think I will be starting my DVD collection in earnest now. Really, I don't think I could have stopped myself even if I wanted to; especially with stuff like FOTR EE and Episode 2 coming out soon!

But I do think it's an interesting discussion as far as how far do you expect audio and video quality to progress in the Home Theater realm? Won't 99% of us be satisfied with HD? I suppose some people will never be satisfied, but from what I've seen of High Definition video, it's like looking through a window rather than a screen!

 

[Sean Aaron]

I'm sure eventually something will come along and no one will care about flatscreen films except nostalgia buffs and much of Hollywood films will be completely forgotten.

I'm content to continue with DVD as is until I die...it looks like HD-DVD is being pitched more as a recordable medium rather than pre-recorded at the moment, so I wouldn't get too excited about it.

Besides, Hollywood is just as paranoid as the RIAA about IP and there's no way movies are coming out HD-DVD until they can feel safe about piracy. I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of "single copy" protection scheme or self-destruct aspect to recording HDTV onto any said media, or at least restricting playback to the device that recorded it. PC manufacturers appear to be already capitulating and planning to integrate hardware that will do authentication of media (files/CDs/DVDs) prior to playback on PCs with a remote signatory like Verisign.

Our rights to "fair use" are in serious danger of being abrogated; unfortunately it only seems to get press in places like theregister.co.uk...

 

[Gavin_L]

moral of story : they'll always be something better. live for the now !

totally agree with you, even then when something that better does come a long, it will take a few years for it to get it off the ground. I say just enjoy it right now. Eventually there will be the new technology, but in the mean time i will be having fun watching my collection of dvds

 

[Ben Crouse]

I'm sure eventually something will come along and no one will care about flatscreen films except nostalgia buffs and much of Hollywood films will be completely forgotten.

Interesting thought. Although if you're suggesting 3D or Virtual Reality movies, I'm not sure I agree with you. 3D films have been around since the '50's and you don't see too many of today's top directors making 3D movies. Along the same vein, painting wasn't forgotten for photography, and black and white movies weren't forgotten for color.

Do you watch black and white films simply for the nostalgia of it?

 

[Reginald Trent]

Ben, you assume every DVD you want will be available in the "new" format. A close examination of the current DVD catalog should refute that. So buy what you want now or wait and gamble that what you want will eventually show up on the "new" format.

 

[Brian W.]

I think Ben has got a point. With HD-DVD only a year or two away, I have been considering tempering my own DVD buying.

Basically, Ben, it's the same situation as we're in now with "special editions." We don't know when we buy a DVD if a special edition will be released in a year. Think what you do about that situation now, and apply that to HD-DVD.

And you can always sell the old discs on Ebay...

 

[Kimmo Jaskari]

Personally I'm buying the stuff I want now on DVD. Bottom line is... do I enjoy watching DVDs now? Yes. They look anywhere from acceptable to superb on my projector, depending on the quality of the disc itself, and I can't imagine I'd enjoy watching them any less just because I would know that I could get an even better quality version on HD-DVD in a few years.

Once HD-DVD comes around and the best of the movies come out in HD (say the top 10% of my movies, the stuff I'll always want a copy of on my shelf) I'll probably replace those with HD variants, but the remaining 90% I'll probably just keep viewing off DVD in 480p for a long time to come.

It may not be like looking out a window when viewing these, but its plenty good enough to be enjoyable, I think.

 

[Mark_Mac]

Why are so many people afraid of progress? I mean hddvd isnt even released and people are afraid of that being bested 10 years from now? Maybe we should just go back to listening to the radio.

 

[Roberto Carlo]

With HD-DVD only a year or two away, I have been considering tempering my own DVD buying.

The technology may be "only a year or two away," but you can be bet that anything approaching the variety and selection we enjoy today is a lot longer away -- maybe decades. How long depends on how fast you think the transition from NTSC to DTV will take. What we do know is that studios will not release nearly perfect copies of their product, with the attendant risk of piracy, to make a relative handful of high-end customers happy.

My advice, Ben, is to buy what you want now.