Article: 4K Blu-ray Discs Arriving in 2015 (1 Viewer)

[OliverK]

Panasonic 4K Blu-ray BDT700 - EISA "Best product 2014-2015"

This is an upscaling Blu-ray player from last year - wonder what it has got to do with the thread topic?

 

[Sean Bryan]

Panasonic has a working "prototype" UD Blu-Ray player at CES.

Here is a good summary of the info about UHD BD from CE manufacturers at CES:


http://www.hdtvtest.co.uk/news/uhd-bd-201501053979.htm

 

[Dave Moritz]

This is an upscaling Blu-ray player from last year - wonder what it has got to do with the thread topic?

http://www.extremetech.com/electronics/196945-panasonic-demos-first-4k-blu-ray-player-but-can-discs-survive-another-standard-transition


http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=15769


I just posted the video and the text was already in place as it should be for the Panasonic prototype 4K UHD bluray player.

 

[Persianimmortal]

That first article you link to above reinforces what I've been saying regarding the 4K disc format essentially being DOA.

 

[Ejanss]

That first article you link to above reinforces what I've been saying regarding the 4K disc format essentially being DOA.

"Can disks survive another transition?"
Well, that's funny, I thought 4K was supposed to be the long-awaited "transition" away from Blu3D.


Which is one reason every conversation about 4K does turn to streaming sooner or later, and as we all know, streaming will be around forever and ever.

Consumers are going to upgrade to 4K televisions, but no one is projecting a repeat of the 720p and 1080p craze when the market collectively leapt from decades of broadcast television all the way to HD content.

Yeah, like, the FCC isn't going to "enforce" a sudden mass change from 2K to 4K, like they did with the analog -> digital changeover in '08 that got everyone looking at 720/1080p flatscreens in the first place, in time for Blu to catch on.


Sometimes, the problem with history is that it doesn't repeat itself, especially when you naively want it to.

 

[bruceames]

That first article you link to above reinforces what I've been saying regarding the 4K disc format essentially being DOA.

I agree. The only way I think it will thrive is if prices are high like laserdisc. You can't have low volume and low prices and make it work. Laserdisc worked because prices were high, but that probably won't work today because the price for content has devalued enormously and people won't pay it.


And with Blu-ray market share flat-lining against DVD at only 31%, it certainly doesn't send the right kind of message to the studios about 4K viability on disc, in a market that is not only declining, but is declining or no longer gaining share against DVD.

 

[OliverK]

Streaming may still not give the revenues that studios want and imo it never will for big movies as it does not focus on specific movies that much but on the service itself. So studios could and should still be open to other options.


Plus streaming is unreliable and silly in that movies drop out of sight just like that not by accident but by design. Here today and gone tomorrow - forgot that evening with friends watching a movie that has just disappeared from Netflix! That is rather unlikely to happen with a physical disc format.


Regarding market shares not increasing: That may be true at the moment but at the same time that may be 10, 20 or even 100 million dollars of sales volume for a single movie that is released on Blu-ray which is nothing to sneeze at and probably more than any LD title ever made.

 

[Persianimmortal]

Talk to anyone under 30 today and they not only own very few if any discs (and if they do it's DVD), they actually laugh at discs. I had a young guy around to paint my ceiling a few weeks ago, he took one look at my Blu-ray collection and couldn't believe I still bought discs. I explained the benefits; he didn't care. He was quite candid in that every film or TV series he enjoys had been downloaded (i.e. torrented). An entire generation is now used to viewing media via downloaded files. A 4K disc format is about as relevant to them as 8-track tape was to my generation. So keep in mind that studios are largely competing with piracy, the elephant in the room, not disc. Their solution is to provide cheaper, more convenient streaming and downloading options to get people to switch to legitimate means, and to cater to those who just want to watch a particular movie or TV series whenever they feel like it, without having to go to a store for (or order online) a $20+ disc. That is, they want to cater to the majority of people. And for the minority who aren't happy with that, there's already DVD and Blu-ray.


4K Blu-ray disc figures nowhere in any logical movie distribution strategy in the 21st century. It's only being pushed by the hardware manufacturers so they can sell 4K hardware, as most people have had 1080p for a while now and hardware sales were stalling. So they're pumping out all sorts of 4K hardware, but because 4K streaming and download options are currently limited, they're using 4K disc as stop-gap media. Expect a handful of blockbuster movies on 4K disc at best, some of which will essentially be 2K upscales. Then 4K disc will quietly disappear as we go pure digital for mainstream, I'd suggest within the next 5-8 years.

 

[revgen]

Apparently, the new "Ultra HD Disc" standard doesn't support 3D. Yet it does support HFR frame rates. The only movies that are shot in HFR are 3D titles. So what's the point exactly?

 

[Worth]

Expect a handful of blockbuster movies on 4K disc at best, some of which will essentially be 2K upscales.

That's one thing that's rarely mentioned - there's very little real 4K material available. If you look at the biggest films of the last few years, here's the actual breakdown:

Guardians of the Galaxy - (2K)
Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2K)
The Lego Movie (2K)
Transformers: Age of Extinction (4K)
Maleficent (2K)
X-Men: Days of Future Past (2K)
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (2K)
The Amazing Spider Man 2 (4K)
Godzilla (2K)
22 Jump Street (2K)
The Hunger Games - Catching Fire (4K)
Iron Man 3 (2K)
Frozen (2K)
Despicable Me 2 (2K)
Man of Steel (2K)
Gravity (2K)
Monsters University (2K)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (2K)
Fast and Furious 6 (2K)
Oz the Great and Powerful (2K)
The Avengers (2K)
The Dark Knight Rises (2K DI but finished on film - could be upgraded to 4K)
The Hunger Games (2K)
Skyfall (4K DI but limited to 2.8K because it was shot with Arri Alexa)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2K)
Twilight - Breaking Dawn Part 2 (2K)
The Amazing Spider Man (4K)
Brave (2K)
Ted (2K)
Madacascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (2K)


And almost of the 4K titles on that list are at least partially 2K upscales.

 

[Dave H]

But, can that list of finished 2K movies above still benefit from wider color gamut (DCI/P3), better dynamic range at 10 bit, and even superior compression? Or are they locked into rec 709 and 8 bit? Resolution is only a smaller part of the UHD Blu-ray advantage in my opinion.

 

[Dave H]

Talk to anyone under 30 today and they not only own very few if any discs (and if they do it's DVD), they actually laugh at discs. I had a young guy around to paint my ceiling a few weeks ago, he took one look at my Blu-ray collection and couldn't believe I still bought discs. I explained the benefits; he didn't care. He was quite candid in that every film or TV series he enjoys had been downloaded (i.e. torrented). An entire generation is now used to viewing media via downloaded files. A 4K disc format is about as relevant to them as 8-track tape was to my generation. So keep in mind that studios are largely competing with piracy, the elephant in the room, not disc. Their solution is to provide cheaper, more convenient streaming and downloading options to get people to switch to legitimate means, and to cater to those who just want to watch a particular movie or TV series whenever they feel like it, without having to go to a store for (or order online) a $20+ disc. That is, they want to cater to the majority of people. And for the minority who aren't happy with that, there's already DVD and Blu-ray.


4K Blu-ray disc figures nowhere in any logical movie distribution strategy in the 21st century. It's only being pushed by the hardware manufacturers so they can sell 4K hardware, as most people have had 1080p for a while now and hardware sales were stalling. So they're pumping out all sorts of 4K hardware, but because 4K streaming and download options are currently limited, they're using 4K disc as stop-gap media. Expect a handful of blockbuster movies on 4K disc at best, some of which will essentially be 2K upscales. Then 4K disc will quietly disappear as we go pure digital for mainstream, I'd suggest within the next 5-8 years.

This is largely the reality of it.


I'd like to see UHD Blu-ray exist for a while in a niche form similar to laser disc. That's probably the best case, most realistic scenario for it. However, I don't believe streaming will ever match its PQ especially given the impressive specs we are hearing for it. Hell, 1080p streaming cannot match Blu-ray today by any means - that gap will even be greater with UHD especially as the U.S. government is going to probably make the Internet essentially a utlity which will greatly end up constricting bandwith for things like PQ over the long run with streaming even as efficient as H.265 is.

 

[bruceames]

But, can that list of finished 2K movies above still benefit from wider color gamut (DCI/P3), better dynamic range at 10 bit, and even superior compression? Or are they locked into rec 709 and 8 bit? Resolution is only a smaller part of the UHD Blu-ray advantage in my opinion.

I was going to mention that myself. But won't all the 4Ks being sold so far not be able to take advantage of those extra features?

 

[bruceames]

This is largely the reality of it.


I'd like to see UHD Blu-ray exist for a while in a niche form similar to laser disc. That's probably the best case, most realistic scenario for it. However, I don't believe streaming will ever match its PQ especially given the impressive specs we are hearing for it. Hell, 1080p streaming cannot match Blu-ray today by any means - that gap will even be greater with UHD especially as the U.S. government is going to probably make the Internet essentially a utlity which will greatly end up constricting bandwith for things like PQ over the long run with streaming even as efficient as H.265 is.

I'm sure the UHD group wasn't created just for Blu-ray but rather for all means of 4K content delivery in general. So improved color spec and 10 bit will surely be a feature in streaming/downloads as well.

 

[Sean Bryan]

Apparently, the new "Ultra HD Disc" standard doesn't support 3D. Yet it does support HFR frame rates. The only movies that are shot in HFR are 3D titles. So what's the point exactly?

I'm not sure that's correct. From what I've read, 3D will be optional like with the current BD spec.

 

[Stephen_J_H]

My best guess on 3D for the 4K spec is that H.265 has yet to finalise the spec for its version of MVC. Remember that H.264 AVC came first, with the H.264 MVC spec a couple of years later. In this case, hopefully they'll speed things along on the H.265 MVC codec, though given the current attitude of studios and CE manufacturers towards 3D, it will probably take awhile.

 

[Sean Bryan]

But, can that list of finished 2K movies above still benefit from wider color gamut (DCI/P3), better dynamic range at 10 bit, and even superior compression? Or are they locked into rec 709 and 8 bit? Resolution is only a smaller part of the UHD Blu-ray advantage in my opinion.

Yep, that's the main benefit of UHD BD for film fans. Digital Cinema Initiative P3 (the spec is also including rec 2020) color space, a minimum of 10-bit video (supposed to allow for optional higher bit rates), and high dynamic range is something all existing films should benefits from.

4K shmore-K, it's "better" high definition. I don't see streaming delivering those things (not without such high compression that its pointless).

Streaming is fine for convince for the masses. For those who actually care about getting the best quality, it's nice that there will be an option available.

 

[Dave H]

I'm sure the UHD group wasn't created just for Blu-ray but rather for all means of 4K content delivery in general. So improved color spec and 10 bit will surely be a feature in streaming/downloads as well.

Agreed, but streaming is not going to match or come close to what it *appears* that UHD Blu-ray is going to be able to deliver. Blu-ray has been out for nine years and streaming still cannot match it. It was promised by some when Blu-ray was released that streaming would match its quality in a few years. Yeah sure.


Today's 4K streaming and Sony's 4K service is about equivalent to a good Blu-ray. LOL


And they (streaming services) are going to match DCI/P3 to rec 2020, 10 to 16 bit, with 66 to 100 gigs and lossless audio? Not going to happen in the 10-15 years. UHD Blu is going to blow away anything UHD streaming will be able to do for a long time.


Grant you, all of this is largely irrelevant to a lot of people as they want quick, cheap (half-assed quality) content delivery and couldn't care nor see the issues and artifacts that crop up in a lot of cases (like watching a non-calibrated 55" UHD display in Vivid mode from 12-15 feet back), but I am just speaking for those of us who are real video enthusiasts who use large, calibrated displays and know the truth about these things.

 

[Sean Bryan]

I was going to mention that myself. But won't all the 4Ks being sold so far not be able to take advantage of those extra features?

Not sure what you mean by that? Any movie released on UHD BD could be delivered with those better specs if the studio chooses to master it that way.

 

[Worth]

Yep, that's the main benefit of UHD BD for film fans. Digital Cinema Initiative P3 (the spec is also including rec 2020) color space, a minimum of 10-bit video (supposed to allow for optional higher bit rates), and high dynamic range is something all existing films should benefits from.

I don't doubt there will be some benefit, but it's going to be an awfully tough sell. How noticeable is any of that going to be on the floor of Best Buy? How are you going to convince enough consumers to upgrade to make it a viable format?