2008 at the Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Pete-D]

Well I think there's an opening for these films to succeed.

People want to see *something* this Christmas I think.

Also it's hard to pin "TCCOBB" as a typical Fincher film since it is a romantic, period ... epic. It probably has more in common with Titanic and Forrest Gump than Fight Club or Zodiac.

Not saying it'll make that kind of dough obviously, but it may not be an easy film to pin down.

Also "grown ups" occasionally do like going to the movie theater too, so that could help both Button and Valkyrie.

For the general public though, Button is really not a "Fincher film" nor is Valkyrie a "Singer film". It's "oh that new Brad Pitt movie, or "that new Tom Cruise movie". I think if couples are going to the theater, women could hedge their boyfriend/finace/husband to the Pitt film.

Word of mouth is going to be extremely important for either one of these films.

 

[TerryRL]

For 'Benjamin Button' to be a success at the box office, it needs to register with two groups, women and the older movie-going crowd. As Pete alluded to, 'Button' will try to tap into the same audience that made both "Forrest Gump" and "Titanic" (minus the throng of teenaged girls that went to see the movie every weekend) huge hits for (ironically) Paramount. While some feel 'Button' will struggle at the box office, the movie could very well end up being a major hit both critically and financially.

 

[Adam_Duncan]

The critics already seem to be behind it judging by reviews published so far, which is a good sign. All we need now is the audiences to follow suit.

 

[Steve Christou]

German critics were unimpressed with Tom Cruise in Valkyrie...


German critics slate Tom Cruise's performance in Valkyrie - Times Online

 

[JediFonger]

if u've been reading the interviews around the net lately, curious case won't be as emotional as people think it will be. it'll be a 'fincher' movie through and through. he is not one to indulge on manipulation of emotion through film like spielberg. fincher is bent on discovering the truth. so even if se7en does have emotion it is based on character's truth and reality. and if u look at his track record he's a stubborn guy and most of his films are cold and methodical until u watch them 50x and discover that there is actually a heart underneath all that.

initial audience reactions to curious case will be: hard, cold, not involving. long term perspective, or a look back will be it'll be a classic onto itself. fincher is interested in making films that last, not just the opening weekend.

either way count me in =).

 

[Brandon Conway]

You know, this brings up an interesting thought, and maybe you have some insight Terry:

How much is a studio willing to take in losses if critical acclaim and awards are allotted?

I remember reading once how Universal and Sci-Fi channel were willing to take a lower profit margin on Battlestar Galactica because it was one of their few shows that garnered great critical praise, and therefore the attention it pulled in for the channel helped offset its lack of higher profits.

If a film like Benjamin Button comes in under financial expectations, but gets critical praise and several award nominations, how much does the that benefit the studio, and to what degree does it offset the lack of returns?

 

[TerryRL]

Unfortunately, with movies its all about the bottom line, i.e. how much money the movie makes. A strong performance during awards season usually translates to greater box office on top of bigger sales on home video. Yes, critical praise is important, but making a host of critically lauded flops isn't going to make the share-holders very happy. Television is a little different. The acclaim 'Galactica' brought to Sci-Fi was used as a tool to get more people to watch the channel.

In the history of the Academy, the Best Picture winner is either a big box office hit going in or becomes one thanks to winning the big award. In the last 30 years only two films failed to generate big box office numbers either going in or after winning the Best Picture Oscar. Those films (which still pulled in very respectable numbers) were 2005's "Crash" ($54.6 million) and 1987's "The Last Emperor" ($44.0 million). In fact, 15 of the last 20 Best Picture winners earned north of the $100 million mark domestically. "Crash" remains the least seen Best Picture winner in terms of overall theater admissions.

Paramount is hoping all this awards buzz will help turn 'Benjamin Button' into a big box office performer, thereby giving the film a stronger shot at dominating on awards night, not to mention the studio recouping their nearly $150 million investment.

Miramax (under the leadership of the Weinstein brothers) was really the last studio who was willing to accept losing money from a movie if it yielded a lot of awards recognition. The Weinsteins were known to spend more on Oscar campaigns than they did on the budgets of the films they were pushing for awards consideration. This was one of the things that ultimately led to the Weinsteins being tossed from Miramax ironically.

At the end of the day, any studio would love to have a financial and critical success, but if they had to choose...

Let's just say a critically acclaimed flop isn't going to pay the bills.

 

[Pete-D]

Yeah one thing I am hearing from more casual movie goers this year is they're wondering where all the "Oscar movies" are, since they usually start coming out already by this time.

 

[JediFonger]

i thought one of the reasons why studios continue to invest and dump $ into talents like fincher is for beefing up their 'classic' catalogue titles. it's more marketing, pedigree, and prestige than box office really. fincher's box office records are abysmal, but his home videos on all formats probably sell very well because he's got a huge cult following of all his films.

 

[TerryRL]

Fincher's best selling title on DVD was "Fight Club", followed by "Seven", "Panic Room", "The Game", "Alien 3" (not counting units sold in franchise sets), and "Zodiac". Fincher's films have proven to be infinitely more popular on home video than in theaters, which is why (as Jedi pointed out) he continues to have a career as a mainstream director.

Fincher and Paramount did clash constantly over the budget of 'Benjamin Button', the running time, the tone, as well as the marketing of the film. Having a star like Brad Pitt on his side during all of this really helped get the movie made, especially considering that five of Pitt's previous seven movies were big box office hits (four of which topped the century mark domestically).

 

[Brandon Conway]

Thanks Terry.

 

[TerryRL]

No problem.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "Yes Man" $6.5 million
#2 "Seven Pounds" $5.3 million
#3 "The Tale of Despereaux" $3.5 million
#4 "The Day the Earth Stood Still" $2.9 million ($41.3 million) 76% Friday-to-Friday drop (Ouch!!!)
#5 "Four Christmases" $2.3 million ($94.7 million) 46% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Twilight" $1.6 million ($154.9 million) 37% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Bolt" $1.0 million ($91.8 million) 40% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Slumdog Millionaire" $755K ($9.7 million) 35% Friday-to-Friday increase
#9 "Australia" $625K ($40.2 million) 50% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Quantum of Solace" $565K ($159.7 million) 49% Friday-to-Friday drop
#11 "Milk" $425K ($9.1 million) 41% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa" $360K ($171.2 million) 50% Friday-to-Friday drop

Snowstorms throughout the country, as well as less than thrilling reviews, led to somewhat lukewarm results for Friday's top two new releases. "Yes Man" should earn in the area of $17-$20 million this weekend, while "Seven Pounds" looks headed for a debut weekend mark of about $14-$17 million. Both films will need strong word-of-mouth if either hopes to become solid box office performers over the course of the next several weeks.

"The Tale of Despereaux" should top the $10 million mark this weekend, while the bottom absolutely fell out for the numbers of "The Day the Earth Stood Still". Any hopes of this one topping the century mark have now been dashed. Not so for the comedy "Four Christmases" as it will pass the $100 million plateau by Sunday night.

 

[Jason44]

I agree with you about The Tale of Despereaux it looks pretty good will probably do well in the box office .

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Yes Man" $18.2 million
#2 "Seven Pounds" $16.0 million
#3 "The Tale of Despereaux" $10.5 million
#4 "The Day the Earth Stood Still" $10.2 million ($48.6 million) -67%
#5 "Four Christmases" $7.8 million ($100.2 million) -41%
#6 "Twilight" $5.2 million ($158.5 million) -34%
#7 "Bolt" $4.3 million ($95.0 million) -43%
#8 "Slumdog Millionaire" $3.2 million ($12.1 million) +45%
#9 "Australia" $2.3 million ($41.9 million) -44%
#10 "Quantum of Solace" $2.2 million ($161.3 million) -42%
#11 "Milk" $1.6 million ($10.3 million) -37%
#12 "Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa" $1.5 million ($172.3 million) -53%

Bad weather throughout the U.S. resulted in a lukewarm weekend of movie-going for the industry. WB's "Yes Man" led the frame with $18.2 million, earning a solid $5,288 average from its 3,434 theaters. Sony's "Seven Pounds" pulled in $16 million, giving star Will Smith the lowest opening film he's had in seven years (since the $14.7 million launch of "Ali" in '01). The film did earn a very respectable $5,801 average from its 2,758 locations, giving it the best per-theater mark of the top 12. Universal's "The Tale of Despereaux" pulled in $10.5 million, earning a mediocre $3,385 average from its 3,104 theaters. Universal is hoping this one legs its way to a solid haul during the coming weeks.

Fox Searchlight's Oscar hopeful, "The Wrestler", launched in four theaters this weekend and earned a stellar $295K, giving the movie a mammoth per-theater average of $52,250. Other Oscar hopefuls in theaters are Fox Searchlight's "Slumdog Millionaire", which saw a 45% increase in business this week. Focus Features' "Milk", which is starting to lose a bit of steam as it took a 37% dip as it expanded by 28 theaters.

Miramax's "Doubt" has now tallied $1.4 million in two weeks of limited play. WB's "Gran Torino" is sitting on a gross of $859K as it plays in less than 20 theaters across the country. "Frost/Nixon" has earned $1.5 million in its three week limited run. After 12 weeks of limited release, SPC's "Rachel Getting Married" has now tallied $9.8 million. Universal's "Changeling" has taken in $35.4 million after nine weeks. Weinstein's "The Reader" ($357K) isn't faring so well in limited release as it saw a 40% decline this weekend from its eight theaters.

MGM/Weinstein's "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" is sitting on a domestic haul of $22.7 million after its 19-week run in theaters. SPC's "Synecdoche, New York" ($2.5 million) is also fading fast in limited play. The same goes for Miramax's "Happy-Go-Lucky" ($3.1 million), which has been on screens for 11 weeks.

Next weekend the industry is really hoping the new crop of new releases pumps life into the box office. Disney's "Bedtime Stories", Fox's "Marley & Me", Paramount's Oscar hopeful "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button", UA's "Valkyrie", and Lionsgate's "The Spirit" all hit theaters on Christmas Day. Miramax's "Doubt" will expand to wide release (about 1,200 theaters) next week as well.

"Bedtime Stories" is expected to dominate the holiday weekend, while most of the eyes of the industry will be on heavy Oscar favorite 'Benjamin Button'. The movie's Oscar dominance could be determined by how well it performs at the box office. We'll see what happens.

 

[mattCR]

The fact that Gran Torino is getting such a small roll out is really sad. This is a really pretty incredible film, and it has all the right elements to draw some pretty good crowds. It should be able to do "Unforgiven" type business in the right theaters, and hell, draw in some of the dirty harry crowd too. This is a movie that is so much better then it seems to be getting studio support for. :frowning:

In regards to others.. this may be a year where damn near everything that's Oscar worthy is in the tank.. can Wall-E, a Box office success with already a best picture win (LA) and several noms get itself in the mix if things stay this dreary for the contenders?

 

[TerryRL]

"Wall-E" could end up among the five Best Picture nominees, but I doubt it will. The movie already has the Best Animated Feature Oscar all wrapped up and the Academy will probably think that (as well as the film's box office success) will be enough of a "reward". Much like with "The Dark Knight". I doubt it'll end up among the five nominees for Best Picture and the the likelihood of Heath Ledger walking away with the Best Supporting Actor Oscar could be seen as reward enough for this year's biggest box office success. I am hoping that I'm wrong because both TDK and "Wall-E" are easily among the best five flicks of '08 and should be recognized as such.

Disney's "Beauty and the Beast" remains the only animated film to receive a nomination for Best Picture and that was before there was a category for Best Animated Feature.

 

[TravisR]

While I'm sure the Best Animated Feature was created with the best intentions, it also made it much easier to say "Well, it's a cartoon and it already has its own category so we don't have to nominate *movie title* for Best Picture" about every animated movie made from the year that category was created onward.

 

[TerryRL]

I agree with that.

Since 'Beast', I've been of the opinion that "The Lion King", "Toy Story", "Finding Nemo", "Spirited Away", and "Ratatouille" all deserved to be nominated for the Best Picture Oscar of their respective years. "Wall-E" is the now the latest addition to this list since its very doubtful it'll end up with a Best Picture nod. Again, I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Yup - it's now next to impossible for an animated movie to get a Best Picture nomination. However, when you consider that only ONE animated flick EVER got a BP nod, I don't see this as a bad thing. At least the BAF category allows animated movies to get recognition. We can bemoan the fact that it virtually ensures an animated movie won't be nominated for BP, but the odds that would happen were already incredibly small, so I see BAF as a good thing...