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HD DVD/BD sales numbers


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19 replies to this topic

#1 of 20 OFFLINE   dkny75

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Posted September 25 2006 - 07:49 AM

Please do not shoot the messenger. Everyone can argue about the validity of these numbers but I just wanted to pass along the information.

Post over at AVS:


QUOTE
Videoscan numbers are in for August finally...

HD-DVD software outsold BD 11 to 1.

11 to 1.

It was 8 to 1 in July.

11 to 1.

That is without a big name title. Batman Begins is estimated to be the first big title for HD-DVD. The title broke into the top 20 on Amazon.com for a limited time. Pre-Orders of the title from Amazon alone are said to be over 20,000 orders. That will make it the top selling HD-DVD title on its first day of release.

WB believes it will sell 50,000 copies in the first week. That means that 90% of everyone who has a HD-DVD player will be out buying it. It also means it will have sold twice as many copies as the previous top seller: Serenity.

Corpse Bride, Charlie & the Chocolate Factory, and T3 are estimated to sell around 15,000 copies in their first month. By the end of October, HD-DVD will have 5 titles that will have outsold every BD sold combined.

Compare that to Click which is estimated to sell around 3,500 copies in its first month and is also estimated to be BD's top selling title.

It's illegal for me to reprint on the internet Videscan numbers (its a paid subscription). It's also illegal for me to reprint the article about estimated sales for both.

It isn't illegal to point out that on Amazon.com the top 10 HD-DVD titles average out to be ranked 584th in movie sales. BD's top 10 average out to 5,662. HD-DVD has 5 titles in the top 150, BD's best day to my knowledge was the top 3,600 for 1 title. They have 5 titles in the top 5,300 currently.

Five best titles for HD-DVD: top 150, BD: top 5,300.

Software sales are completely blowing away BD. Software attachment numbers are crazy high for HD-DVD. September and October numbers are going to be much WORSE for BD. It is 11 to 1 right now, but September numbers could be as high as 15 to 1, and Octobers looks to be devestatingly absurd likely 20 to 1.

So the person in this thread thinking sales are 5 to 1 in favor of HD-DVD is clearly wrong. HD-DVD is crushing BD right now. This is without advertising. The big campaign of $150M starts in late October.

Consider by October HD-DVD player sales are estimated to be at 65,000 while BD sales are estimated to be at 10,000. That is sold not shipped. It is a number from Toshiba, so it could be off. I don't think it is.

Sony is banking that PS3 sales will push software sales of BD up in December over HD-DVD and show that Studios like Disney, Fox, and Lionsgate picked the right brand.

Lionsgate however is rumored to be about to make an announcement that they will have HD-DVD titles available. It's just too hard for them to pass up the money they could be making in HD-DVD.

If Sony doesn't win December (and I'm now thinking they have little to no chance) then Disney is very likely to spurn Sony and go with both formats.

LG is going to announce a Dual-Format (universal) player at CES. Their agreement with Sony won't allow them to release a HD-DVD only player.


#2 of 20 OFFLINE   MarekM

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Posted September 25 2006 - 07:59 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkny75
If Sony doesn't win December (and I'm now thinking they have little to no chance) then Disney is very likely to spurn Sony and go with both formats.

little to no chance based on WHAT DATA ???????

Marek

#3 of 20 OFFLINE   dkny75

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Posted September 25 2006 - 08:02 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarekM
little to no chance based on WHAT DATA ???????

Marek
That is the poster's opinion. I'm assuming he's basing it the videoscan data he has in front of him.

#4 of 20 OFFLINE   MarekM

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Posted September 25 2006 - 08:14 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by dkny75
That is the poster's opinion. I'm assuming he's basing it the videoscan data he has in front of him.

I am not shooting messanger Posted Image

just very simple math....... of course it will be not accurate Posted Image

he said 10.000 BD players, maybe till the end of the year it can at least tripple or quadruple.... maybe more......

so lets say 50.000 BD (samsung, panasonig, sony, pioneer, sharp, philips) maybe I am too positive....
and if the press releases turn out to be true 400.000+1.500.000 PS3 together at the end of the year...

so let's do math about software...

people who bought BD player will for sure buy at least 15 movies this year, so you have 750.000 copies sold, plus 20% of 1.9mil PS3 players will buy 4 movies... you have 1.520.000 copies sold, so together there you have 2.270.000 copies sold.....

on the other hand HD-DVD from info 65.000 players, so maybe 80.000 at the end of the year... let have same 15 movies each one.. - 1.200.000 copies sold

and that's jut begining........
don't shoot me Posted Image I am maybe conservative or very positive, I am not sure Posted Image
I just took some numbers Posted Image

Marek

#5 of 20 OFFLINE   BrettGallman

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Posted September 25 2006 - 08:21 AM

HD-DVD is off to a fast start, that's for sure. But there's still a long way to go, for sure.
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#6 of 20 OFFLINE   Ryan_Papineau

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Posted September 25 2006 - 08:32 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarekM
I am not shooting messanger Posted Image

just very simple math....... of course it will be not accurate Posted Image

he said 10.000 BD players, maybe till the end of the year it can at least tripple or quadruple.... maybe more......

so lets say 50.000 BD (samsung, panasonig, sony, pioneer, sharp, philips) maybe I am too positive....
and if the press releases turn out to be true 400.000+1.500.000 PS3 together at the end of the year...

so let's do math about software...

people who bought BD player will for sure buy at least 15 movies this year, so you have 750.000 copies sold, plus 20% of 1.9mil PS3 players will buy 4 movies... you have 1.520.000 copies sold, so together there you have 2.270.000 copies sold.....

on the other hand HD-DVD from info 65.000 players, so maybe 80.000 at the end of the year... let have same 15 movies each one.. - 1.200.000 copies sold

and that's jut begining........
don't shoot me Posted Image I am maybe conservative or very positive, I am not sure Posted Image
I just took some numbers Posted Image

Marek
Sorry, but this has got to be some of the most "imaginary" math I've ever seen with just wild numbers thrown about everywhere. The original poster although clearly pro HD-DVD at least was using hard numbers not just potential numbers.

You are assuming that the number of BD players (non-PS3) is going to jump by 40,000 and then you multiply that by 15 for the movies?!? That seems borderline lunacy in terms of being positive. I don't think I bought that many DVDs in my first year of ownership let alone in what effectively would be about 3 months and yet you think that will be the average for all BD owners.

#7 of 20 OFFLINE   MarekM

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Posted September 25 2006 - 09:00 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan_Papineau
Sorry, but this has got to be some of the most "imaginary" math I've ever seen with just wild numbers thrown about everywhere. The original poster although clearly pro HD-DVD at least was using hard numbers not just potential numbers.

You are assuming that the number of BD players (non-PS3) is going to jump by 40,000 and then you multiply that by 15 for the movies?!? That seems borderline lunacy in terms of being positive. I don't think I bought that many DVDs in my first year of ownership let alone in what effectively would be about 3 months and yet you think that will be the average for all BD owners.

- first I used same 15movies also for HD-DVD as you can see..... so, well I bought 80 dvd's in first year, and I was holding myself back...

- I clearly stated that those are only potentional numbers for BD as wel as for HD-DVD

- is it hard to imagene if samsung sold 10.000 that each other BD player can do same ? that people are waiting also for other brands ?

- there are not so imaginery as you think..... I don't pick thouse numbers out of the black wall.......

- well if somebody is going to HD-DVD or BD, you SERIOUSLY THINK he will buy just 4 movies ? or what ?

Marek

P.S. only numbers which are potentional are numbers HD-DVD and BD at the and of the year, and movies sold per one player...

#8 of 20 OFFLINE   Darren Gross

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Posted September 25 2006 - 11:13 AM

The difficulty as I see it is Blu-Ray is pounding out the new titles very quickly and the consumer displays in a place like Best Buy showcase far more varied and interesting titles than is currently on DVD.

What are the numbers of HD DVD releases vs Blu-Ray at this point?

#9 of 20 OFFLINE   ppltd

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Posted September 25 2006 - 11:45 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarekM
I am not shooting messanger Posted Image

just very simple math....... of course it will be not accurate Posted Image

he said 10.000 BD players, maybe till the end of the year it can at least tripple or quadruple.... maybe more......

so lets say 50.000 BD (samsung, panasonig, sony, pioneer, sharp, philips) maybe I am too positive....
and if the press releases turn out to be true 400.000+1.500.000 PS3 together at the end of the year...

so let's do math about software...

people who bought BD player will for sure buy at least 15 movies this year, so you have 750.000 copies sold, plus 20% of 1.9mil PS3 players will buy 4 movies... you have 1.520.000 copies sold, so together there you have 2.270.000 copies sold.....

on the other hand HD-DVD from info 65.000 players, so maybe 80.000 at the end of the year... let have same 15 movies each one.. - 1.200.000 copies sold

and that's jut begining........
don't shoot me Posted Image I am maybe conservative or very positive, I am not sure Posted Image
I just took some numbers Posted Image

Marek

Numbers will mean little once they get above 100,000 players, for either camp, into consumers hands. At that point it becomes painful not to support both parties. To be perfectly honest, the studios could give a $^*#% about the format when it comes to making more money off of the consumers. Disney or Fox lose nothing by supporting HD-DVD when it has an install base large enough to make profit off of. This goes ditto for Universal.

The only wild card here is Sony Studios. But since they are their on independent company from the hardware side, and have MGM to contend with, I think they will move over to both formats.

If the numbers are any where near facts in the post, and I question them myself, this move could happen allot sooner then I would have guessed.

Bottom line is, IMHO, if both formats sell well over the holidays, the studios will not alienate the consumers by playing in this war. Right now it doesn't matter as it is not the general consumer that is buying the current players. This will most likely change over the Christmas season.

Thomas Eisenmann
Thomas Eisenmann
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#10 of 20 OFFLINE   ppltd

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Posted September 25 2006 - 11:51 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darren Gross
The difficulty as I see it is Blu-Ray is pounding out the new titles very quickly and the consumer displays in a place like Best Buy showcase far more varied and interesting titles than is currently on DVD.

What are the numbers of HD DVD releases vs Blu-Ray at this point?

Just checked DVDEMPIRE.COM

HD-DVD 64 released 48 announced
BR 42 released 53 announced

I am not sure if this includes all of the most current release notes from BR and HD camps.

This may not be a complete list, but it was the best I could do on short notice.

Thomas Eisenmann
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1124 BDs and going up, 1028 - DVDs and going down.


#11 of 20 OFFLINE   dpippel

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Posted September 25 2006 - 12:32 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darren Gross
The difficulty as I see it is Blu-Ray is pounding out the new titles very quickly and the consumer displays in a place like Best Buy showcase far more varied and interesting titles than is currently on DVD.
The difficulty as I see it is that Blu-ray players still cost $1000+ and some of the consumers that DO have players are a little gun-shy about software quality. Title selection means little if sales are slow.

11 to1? Wow.

Careful man, there's a beverage here!


#12 of 20 OFFLINE   Tim Glover

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Posted September 25 2006 - 04:47 PM

Let's please avoid a pissing contest. There are other HD-DVD/Blu-Ray threads where this happens about every 4th or 5th post.

The numbers are numbers and the facts are what they are. Like Brett said, it is a LONG way to go. Don't forget most of the studios want AND need for Blu-Ray to succeed. They've invested too much. Blu-Ray will not go away anytime soon.

While I am a very proud HD-DVD owner and do hope they can keep their momentum....I still feel deep down, they have a near impossible fight still ahead. There is ALOT of $$ and egos, and alot of jobs at risk too if Blu-Ray fails.

Nice to see the #'s for HD-DVD, but let's be careful not to gloat. Damn I feel like a football coach. Posted Image

#13 of 20 OFFLINE   BrettGallman

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Posted September 25 2006 - 05:49 PM

Yeah, that's a good elaboration of what I was getting at, Tim. I think someone else made a good point on another thread when they said that the real Blu-Ray launch will begin in earnest soon. Sony just didn't want HD-DVD to have too big a jump, and the quality certainly suffered for it. I think Blu-Ray has started to get its act together, though. So the war is really just getting started, in my opinion.
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#14 of 20 OFFLINE   Jim Peavy

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Posted September 26 2006 - 11:18 AM

I still can't help wondering if the durn name of each format is having a lot to do with HD-DVD's (apparently) winning the race thus far. I can almost hear regular blokes saying, "Bluray - what is that? HD-DVD, now I know what that is!!"
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#15 of 20 OFFLINE   Robert Crawford

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Posted September 26 2006 - 11:28 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Peavy
I still can't help wondering if the durn name of each format is having a lot to do with HD-DVD's (apparently) winning the race thus far. I can almost hear regular blokes saying, "Bluray - what is that? HD-DVD, now I know what that is!!"
HD DVD was out first so they had the early advantage and the early Blu-ray software problems hurt its launch. However, as I stated many times beforehand, this war is just beginning, the next three months is the end of the first quarter with 2007 being the beginning of the second quarter. There is a lot of firepower in that Blu-ray offense and it shoudn't be underestimated as to how effective they're going to be from now going forward.




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#16 of 20 OFFLINE   Jim Peavy

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Posted September 26 2006 - 11:38 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Crawford
HD DVD was out first so they had the early advantage and the early Blu-ray software problems hurt its launch. However, as I stated many times beforehand, this war is just beginning, the next three months is the end of the first quarter with 2007 being the beginning of the second quarter.
Oh yeah, I'm sure you're right. And, and just for the record, I have no stake in either format: let the best one win, I say (though, I've never been as enamored as others in the potentially higher storage capacity of BD).
"I just pre-ordered I DRINK YOUR BLOOD, even though I have no job."

#17 of 20 OFFLINE   ppltd

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Posted September 26 2006 - 01:16 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Peavy
I still can't help wondering if the durn name of each format is having a lot to do with HD-DVD's (apparently) winning the race thus far. I can almost hear regular blokes saying, "Bluray - what is that? HD-DVD, now I know what that is!!"

You certainly have a point when it comes to the general consumer. Hadn't thought of that, but what the heck, it is almost always the marketing that makes or breaks a product. I am not sure when the 'uneducated' (no offence meant) buyer plays a part in the numbers equation, as I would guess most current buyers made an educated decision when they puchased their HD or BR player.

I wonder when the BR and HD camp will decide that the product has moved out of the early adapter stage and into the mass sales market place. The sale of product in Wal-Mart and Target may be the strart, but I have seen virtually no advertising from either camp on their product offerings.

Thomas Eisenmann
Thomas Eisenmann(Last updated 09/30/11)

Blu-Ray Collection  DVD Collection, Numerous BD players,

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1124 BDs and going up, 1028 - DVDs and going down.


#18 of 20 OFFLINE   Tim Glover

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Posted September 26 2006 - 01:19 PM

I've always felt that HD-DVD was a much more savvy name especially since HD and DVD were already household names. Still, Blu-Ray sounds cool too...but I do think that if these 2 formats EVER combine forces LOL....they should use the HD-DVD name.

#19 of 20 OFFLINE   Robert Crawford

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Posted September 26 2006 - 02:37 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by ppltd

I wonder when the BR and HD camp will decide that the product has moved out of the early adapter stage and into the mass sales market place. The sale of product in Wal-Mart and Target may be the strart, but I have seen virtually no advertising from either camp on their product offerings.

Thomas Eisenmann
First off, software pricing will have to come down, particularly, Disney and Fox. Secondly, more same day releases with HD and SD versions. Thirdly, lower hardware pricing so market penetration can really take hold.




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#20 of 20 OFFLINE   dpippel

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Posted September 26 2006 - 11:36 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Crawford
First off, software pricing will have to come down, particularly, Disney and Fox. Secondly, more same day releases with HD and SD versions. Thirdly, lower hardware pricing so market penetration can really take hold.
Lower hardware prices are much more important than software prices at this point in the game. People aren't going to be buying Blu-ray discs if they don't own a player because it's too expensive, and for a lot of people a $999.99+ pricetag is very hard to swallow.

Careful man, there's a beverage here!



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