Who is going to win the Format War and why? (2 Viewers)

[Michael TLV]

Greetings

Also bear in mind that if and when one format meets its demise... the price for replacing all the software is going to be relatively cheap since most of the stuff is going to be in the bargain bin in the other format.



Regards

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

Walter & Michael, those are both two excellent points too often overlooked.

 

[Lew Crippen]

ditto

 

[Austan]

Things starting off on a tangent... "Quality" or Disk space wont decide the winner. GM used to be the #1 selling name plate and they weren't known for quality and it took Ford 20 tries to get to the "Model T". Also Sony has been known for making crappy quality electronics, but they still are a top selling name plate. As long as a 2 hour HD movie fits on 1 disk, there's no difference for a HT buyer. A DVD can be double sided to hold 2x data but when was the last time you saw a DVD with data on both sides? The only DVD in my collection that is doubled sided is a 4:3 one side and 16:9 other side version of Air Force One. I also "backup" my movies and a majority of the DVDs dont even use the entire 8gb!!! There's plenty of room for all that mumbo jumbo interactive and extras. But as usually, it's just Buzz words thats give possible potential but very few DVDs actually deliver...

Now back to the debate...

Im not a Sony fanboy!!! and Im not a MS fanboy!!! I boycotted MiniDisc, Memory Stick and UMD. And I hate the fact that MS stomps out all competition and forces you to use their OS. But I am a realist. Some Sony electronics are the benchmark of their class and I won't use a Mac because "no one else has one"...

I had very high hopes for HD-DVD... "Backwards Compatable", "First Out" and "Lower Cost"... I'm still waiting for some real news what will put HD-DVD over the top. But as of now, I see the Sony machine on the movie. I laughed at UMD and so was pleased to hear news that Walmart pulled the plug. After that, I knew UMD was dead. But while doing research I ran across 8.2 million UMD movies sold. That's a huge number and that makes the PS3 a major role player in this Format War. I cant explain why people would spend $20+ for a movie that can only be displayed on the PSP. Plus, you cant copy it and as far as I know, there's no UMD writer. Baffles the mind doesnt it???

Here's the thing, I'm saving up money for a PS3 (I currently have the original XBOX)... So that money has already been budgeted for a game console (not a video player)... And I have a HDTV set... I'm dying to see what HD movies look like!!! and I plan to pick up some Blu-Ray movies because it only cost me pennies ($35) because I've ready committed my dollars ($599).

If you are a HD-DVD supporter are you willing to drop at least $499 on a HD-A1? When you buy a PS3, you automatically defaulted to a Blu-Ray supporter. I dont see anyone buying a PS3 and going out and spending another $499 for HD-A1. Its so tempting for PS3 owners to pick up just 1 movie at $35 to see what the Buzz is all about... If 25% of initial PS3 owners decide to do that. Just image how many BluRay movies come off the shelf?

 

[Walter Kittel]

You are assuming that all PS3 purchasers have an HD capable display. Those who do not, will not fit into your theoretical 'buy one title to see what the fuss is about' group. I don't know what the percentages might be, but given some of the figures tossed around in these threads, I suspect a substantial amount of PS3 owners will not be capable of viewing Bd at 1080.

Edit: In the sense that you purchased Blu-Ray HW in the form of a PS3, you may be 'viewed' as a supporter, but (once again) owning a player does not automatically translate into sales of Bd films; which I believe will be the primary indice of format success or failure with regards to Home Theater. (Bd on computer platforms is a separate entity, despite its impact upon consumer Bd players.)

- Walter.

 

[Austan]

This is why I think buying a PS3 puts you the Blu-Ray camp:

• You have already invested $599 in a game console that happens to play Blu-Ray movies.
• $35 is not much for the genration X & Y who spends $8 movie ticket & $20 for drinks/popcorn/candy not to mention $3gal/gas and $3 starbuck coffee.
• PSP-UMD sales shows that people are willing to buy a Sony propriatory format (8.2 million sold)
• I dont know the exact numbers now, but I beleive 18 million HDTV sets have been sold
• If you have a PS3, it cost $35 to see a Blu-Ray movie and $499+$35 to see a HD-DVD movie.

Also, I never said that a PS3 will be the "Center Piece" of a HT system. Once prices drop, stand alone players will take that role. My point is that PS3 will increase Blu-Ray movie sales based on the PSP selling 8.2 million UMD titles. Retail stores want to see turn over and if Blu-Ray movies are coming off the shelves at a much higher rate than HD-DVD titles, it spells bad news for HD-DVD.

Another point, if PS3 sells as many units as predicted, dont you think manafacturing cost will go down? 7500 HD-A1 sales wont drive cost down for HD-DVD hardware.

I'm basing my reasonings on the data I presented. I honestly didnt want to be a Blu-Ray supporter... People ask my why I started this thread. Honestly, I really want to read reports that shows HD-DVD will win. But the more I reseach the more I lean towards Blu-Ray.

 

[Paul_Scott]

I agree. 12 months from now, if one of the formats software (not hardware) is consistently outselling the other by a 2 or 3 to 1 margin, then to me, that seems like the writing is on the wall.
This is why the PS3 has been seen as the silver bullet, that will help Bd attain a critical mass of software sales.
Without that, I would expect the higher priced players, the delayed software, the issues with replication, etc would all put the format at a disadvantage at launch. That would make it even more imperative for Bd to get out some 'good' titles early on. Fantastic Four, Independance Day, 50 First Dates, Hitch, etc I would consider to be more of the kind of selection you can push out when there is no competition for software, let alone another format entirely.

the only problems with the PS3 that I see are;
- supplies limited at roll out
- the first buyers are more likely to be game-centric, rather than dual-use users
- Bd fans/supporters are more likely to balk at having to wait wel into the fall to get on the HD bandwagon. The urge to get something-anything to finally get in the game, amy make a lot of people spring for one of the first players from Samsung or Sony.

at this point, that may be all that is available as well, since it sounds like both Panasonic and Pioneer are delaying the launch of their players until after the PS3 is out.

 

[Ryan-G]

Ok,

I'm actually alot more BR than HD-DVD, just because I think it's more future proof. But, I'll role reverse for the moment and tell you how HD-DVD can win.

Sony is pricing the PS3 at $500-600 dollars per unit. Only two other consoles have ever sold for more, and both bombed badly. Sony also has a small number of launch titles, and only two of them could be considered wildely successfull titles. At it's pricing, Sony's going to have a hard time selling these units to people on Launch after the initial rush. People will take a "Wait for price drop" stance, as they're talking about now. PS3 is more expensive to develop for, and studios are already starting to feel the crunch. EA's already said d/t the PS3/Xbox 360 they're going to have to cut back on PC Development.

If people are taking a "Wait for price drop" approach, and Studio's are looking for ways to cut costs, it's very plausible that PS3 support may be dropped as studios look at the installed base and decide not to develop. This could end up as a killer for the console as lack of game libraries means less attractiveness to consumers, which means less units in homes.

To counteract this, Sony may have to cut pricing. But if Sony cuts pricing, they'll undercut the other BR manufacturers, which means less stand alone Player sales. Which means ticked off manufacturers who may decide to switch to HD-DVD. Lack of manufacturers may in turn signal weakness in the format to J6P consumers who equate "More" with "Better". As well as the combined marketing budget of all these companies could easily outweigh Sonys and win just by "AOL style" flood tactics.

In other words, to save PS3 Sony might find it needs to sacrifice BR. But by the time Sony realizes this, it may be too late to save PS3. Cutting the pricing of PS3 won't guarantee sales if the game library isn't there after several months in retail. Especially when faced with the library X-box 360 will have.

Additionally, MS is starting to make a big push for PC Gaming. Sony may find that the combination of X-box 360, Wii, and PC's are too much for it to overcome. Especially since many of the PC's weaknesses have been solved over the years. Compatibility is worlds better, Cost is down. The Mhz rush has ended and PC's are reaching a point where a computer today lasts much longer than a computer 10 years ago did. In fact, I still have a 2.6ghz P4 that does quite well with today's titles, with very acceptable graphics.

So, HD-DVD may end up winning because Sony finds it can't afford to risk the loss of PS3. In cutting the pricing of PS3, Sony will cut out it's partners, and HD-DVD will likely hit tolerable Stand Alone pricing before BR will.

Sony is being very arrogant right now, especially about the PS3. Even going so far as to claim that the PS3's pricing is cheap. Arrogance is never a good thing in buisness, Consumers don't respect arrogance, and it often leads to lack of vision. Many former "Fan boys" of PS3 will also feel betrayed should PS3 backfire, and they'll be suspicious of more Sony Products.

Sony is trying to take control of the entertainment market, but their arrogant approach to the Console market puts both efforts in jepordy.

 

[Chris Dugger]

Question,

I have seen the mention of player cost dropping to reasonable levels.

Isn't it true that the reason that standard dvd players are so low now is because the technology is accessible to everyone?

If I understand correctly, the technology behind both BR and HD are proprietary. Meaning that a licensing fee must be paid to use the technology or a royalty.

So, with this being said, will we see much of a price drop on players and won't that effect the outcome?

Dugger

 

[Austan]

PS2 first sold for $300 compared to $150 SNES system. And it went on to sell over 100 million units. Xbox360 sold over 3 million units since launch at $299-$399. But there were a lot of bundled Xbox360 that sold for over $499.
And if you read the Xbox360 threads, most people are buying the $399 version today. You cant stop someone who wants something from buying it...

The arugment about "wait until prices drop" is just as valid for HD-DVD stand alone players... $499 for a HD-A1 is pricey also since DVD stand alones can be had for $40-$100. HD-A1 7500 units sold. PS3 sales will hit the millions by end of 2006.

Sony wont be cutting out Blu-Ray, games will be released on that media so all PS3 must be able to read thier own games. MS is also taking a loss on each Xbox360 sold. Developers arent going to stop developing for PS3 because they dont want to miss out on the potiential sales. Same reason as why most stuidos said they will release movies on both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray.

I've got other "good news for HD-DVD" but once again they dont hold water.
Hybird HD-DVD discs? you think $30 is high now, who would play $45 for Hybird disc when consumers are already weary of the Format War. If they spent that much they mind as well get the HD-A1 and buy a standard HD-DVD moive for $30.

HD-A1 is the cheapest HD player at $499 but the reviews hasn't been that great Yeah, video is awesome, but at $499 reviews want something more polished.

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

Standard DVD was, and remains proprietary and there are still royalty license fees involved. Over the years, these fees have shrunken by significant amounts due to higher volumes and other factors as well. When standard DVD came out in 1997 the average MSRP of the first gen players was around $1,000 with a few high-end models listed for well over $2,000. If you account for inflation, that would be like paying $1,200 for a player today.

BTW: Panasonic was one of the first to release a progressive scan DVD player back in early 2000, which had a MSRP of $3,000. I would be willing to bet most $200 players today outperform it.

 

[Austan]

Another Fact to ponder: For some strange reason, people seem to associate Blu-Ray as propriety. But look at the backers:

• HD-DVD: Toshiba, Sanyo and NEC
• Blu-Ray: Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Hitachi and LG

I dont know about you, but if you look at the list it looks like Toshiba is trying to push their own format on us and that Sony is part of huge manufacturing group.

What do you think market share is for Toshiba and Sanyo compared to Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, and LG? My guestimate would be at least 1:40 for HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray. So if HD-DVD becomes the standard, then for every 1 Toshiba/Sanyo player sold, there would be 40 other players that have to pay royalty fees.

 

[Todd McF]

I couldnt agree more. I consider myself pretty "liberal" on HT expenses. Dedicated theater w/ projector etc - but I refuse to commit to HD until a clear winner is chosen. If people like us are in a holding pattern, just imagine the target market as a whole. 18 million HD capable units out there. Thats a pretty big market to be scratching its collective head in confusion.

 

[John_McKittrick]

I'm sorry but I think it's rather foolish to base the sale of Blue Ray to UMD sales. You have to consider that the PSP is a 'portable' medium, and a rather expensive one at that. People bought UMD's because it was the only thing coming out for it at the time. How as more games come out, the UMD sales have dropped considerably and studios have all but severed any support for the format. It is quite a shame because UMDs were addictive and I have quite a few of them. The iPod video may also have had something to do with the decrease of UMD sales as well as how expensive they were.

You are under a false assumption that the PS3 is going to launch into the stratosphere and never look back at the other consoles. If you go to any gamesite, any podcast, or anyone who know's gaming, the support for the PS3 is lackluster at best. Even fanboys are starting to look at the 360 now more than ever. The 360, like HDDVD is out now, you can buy and enjoy them right now. By the time the PS3 launches we'll already be seeing the second gen of HD players in addition to the HDDVD add-on for the 360.

HD has really started to take a stride, one that Sony may not recover from. Remember, quality not quantity.

 

[Austan]

It still cost XBOX360 owners $150-$200 to buy a external HD-DVD player then dont forget the $50 HDMI cable... Kinda hard to swallow another $200-$250 to watch a $35 HD-DVD movie. I don't see millions of external XBOX360 HD-DVD drives selling and 7500 HD-A1 units is more of a stumble than a stride. I agree that PS3 sales will not reach PS2 numbers... So anything less than 100 million might be considered a "failure". But millions of PS3 will still be sold. You have to give Sony that much credit, the've proven they can sell game consoles.

Consider this... 1% of 1 million is still more than 7500. Yes, I know more HD-DVD players will be sold. But just wanted to show you the staggering statistics that PS3 brings to the Format War. If HD-DVD players have a 10x increase in sales by the end of the year and PS3 sells out of its initial christmas supply, HD-DVD would still be less then 4% of Blu-Ray.

BTW: It's not just Sony. Try adding Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Hitachi and LG to the list.

 

[Dave Moritz]

The Toshiba HD-DVD is not necessarily flying off the shelves in great numbers. And X-Box 360's have problems of there own. Plus X-Box 360 does not even have a HD-DVD drive to play HD-DVD discs!


I do not agree that second gen players will be out before Blu-ray players hit the market. I have talked to a few retailers here in the Phoenix area and no one has any idea when they might recieve 2nd gen HD-DVD players. I don't think there are any retailers that have any clue when 2nd gen HD-DVD players are going to be available. Just because Toshiba's HD-DVD and MS's X-Box 360 made it to market first. That is no guarentee that they will be sucessful and Blu-ray will not. While there may be some PS3 backers that are having impulse contol problems like so many people do now adays. That does not mean that once PS3 comes out those same people will not turn around and be first in line to buy PS3 machines.


Personally I prefer my pc for games and am not planing on buying there game platform. My main focus is on my HT system and updating it and keeping up as up to date as possible. I am sure they will be plenty of PS3's that will be sold and I would not be suprised if they can not keep enough units in stock to meet demand, even at $499 each.


Here is where Toshiba messed up IMHO:
1. They rushed HD-DVD to market with to may bugs.
2. There seems to be no actuall fixes to the problems yet.
3. Releasing a 1080p format with a 1080i machine.
4. Basically going to market without getting other companies like Pioneer, Samsung, Denon or Kenwood to build players.


IMHO these factors have hurt HD-DVD acceptance in the marketplace and may just help Sony in the long run. That however is not a guarentee that Sony is going to be the winner. There is still the real possibility that both formats could fail and we will end up waiting for the next format later on. Only time will tell what format survives, I would prefere it to be Blu-ray HD. But if HD-DVD does win I will be in line buying a non Toshiba HD-DVD player and stocking my library with HD-DVD titles.


GO BLU_RAY

 

[nousername]

Will the format war between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD be more like the one that happened between DVD-A and SACD than the one between Beta and VHS? In other words, will both formats fail to catch on and simply end up being niche products for only those who have a lot of disposable income?

I have a hi-def capable TV and can definitely see and appreciate the superiority of a higher-def video format over the current one (I briefly had a HDTV tuner 3 years ago and the picture quality was amazing). However, I can't see myself replacing my 200+ DVD collection with hi-def versions anytime soon because I simply won't be able to afford it.

It's the same reason I didn't go out and replace my 300+ CD collection with the corresponding DVD-A and SACD titles either, even though I can certainly hear the improvement. My DVD player handles DVD-A and I have purchased exactly one DVD-A disc since I got the player 4 years ago.

I'm afraid there are millions and millions of people who are in the same boat as me. We simply don't have enough time and money to invest in yet another format, even if the benefits are clearly demonstrated. Therefore, it is my opinion that neither Blu-Ray nor HD-DVD will catch on the way DVD did.

I have been known to be wrong in the past, of course.

 

[Ryan-G]

Keeping BR as a format for games and sacrificing BR as a movie format are two different things.

Developers can, and may very well, drop PS3 support. Developing a game isn't cheap, and if there's only a million or two consoles sold it doesn't pay to develop the game for that format.

The difference between HD-DVD and BR vs Gaming is that movies can all be drawn from the same master, while for a game the code needs to be rewritten for the new Platform. Multi-Platform development is neither easy or cheap, especially with PS3's alien architecture. PS3 will need a nearly completely seperate code base, which literally doubles the programming costs. Increased costs to sell to a limited market is a bad buisness descion.

 

[Austan]

Who said replace? You can play your DVDs in either format... Plus as time goes by, you buy new moives not keep buying old movies. As prices drop for HD media, more consumers will adopt the new standards. Currently only Toshiba makes a HD-DVD player and they only sold 7500 units. PS3 production will reduce the cost of both Blu-Ray hardware and media. Remember when CD-R costed $10 and DVDR costed $10 and DVD-DL costed $10? Now they cost 10 cents, 25 cents and $2. Sales volume drove all these prices down... How is Toshiba & Sanyo going to produce & sell enough HD-DVD hardware to reduce cost? The other MAJOR manafactures are not supporting HD-DVD because they dont want to pay royalities. When was the last time you bought a Toshiba or Sany DVD player? How many people own Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Hitachi or LG DVD players?

Here's my point again...

• HD-A1 sold 7500 units (consumer waiting for "dust to settle")
• PS3 is the successor to highly successful PS2 (established Sonys track record)
• XBOX360 sold at $399+ at launch (you cant stop people from buying what they want)
• 2 million PS3 unit available by end of 2006 (huge influence on Format War)
• 8.2 PSP UMD movies sold (impulse purchases established)
• Blu-Ray backed by Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Hitachi and LG

Counter argument:

• Blog site says...
• Survey says...
• My gut instinct...
• Backed by Toshiba & Sanyo

 

[Todd McF]

So what the 1080P vs. 1080i/720P issue?

Like I said I'm in a holding pattern. I've got decent gear - but my projector is not 1080P, its native 720P (1280x720). I'm not sure I'd even upgrade to HD-DVD without 1080P. Sure 1080i would look better than SD - but SD looks great on my projector.

If I'm thinking that I can only image what J6P is thinking - and certainly they don't have 1080P displays.