Stopping DVD purchases or upgrading dvd library to High Def. (1 Viewer)

[ElAhrai]

And with the format war promising to become ugly what exactly are those HD opportunities that they can take advantage of?

Will both be able to co-exist? Will there be hybrid decks? Will studios reach exclusive release agreements? How will the consumer react to these new products? What are the final specs for each type of disc?

At this point the dream of crystal clear HD optical discs is still just that, a dream. I hope that an HD format is able to make it to the marketplace and survive/thrive, but as far as what that format will be, it's anybody's guess. Not all formats that are released last for any meaningful amount of time.

But if I had to venture a guess, I would guess that these formats will become a niche market product.

Either way, there is still way too much up in the air to let it affect the things I buy now.

As far as the death of NTSC is concerned. The original (circa 2002) plan was for HD to be the dominant broadcast format by New Years '05 and for NTSC broadcast to cease by Christmas '05. I'm not holding my breath for that to happen.

 

[WillardK]

There was recently a revision made to the required date for a switchover of all broadcasts to HD in the US. Maybe someone else can remember or refer to the details. But this revision was made due to the realization that predictions of HDTV adoption have been overzealous.

Not many here like to acknowledge it, but cable HD and on-demand are also significant factors. It's not a stretch to imagine average consumers looking at their casesfull of dusty dvd's and opting for cable, rental and recording before replacing their collections with HD discs. Things will change eventually, most certainly. But I personally wouldn't bet on HD discs taking off so quickly, and not at all at the volume of DVD.

As DVD has not been around very long, a forced switch in format (as Ernest I think is suggesting) regardless of better PQ is bound to give many pause about their purchasing habits, especially if introduced at a higher retail. DVD's inspired people to stockpile 'libraries' of titles with a greater speed probably than any audio format change was capable of. Will lightning strike twice on the tree that grows money?

 

[Brent M]

Right now the switchover from analog broadcasts to HD is supposed to occur in 2006, but the FCC is proposing that it be pushed back to 2009 due to the slow adoption rate of HD by the general public. Nothing has been set in stone yet, but it looks highly unlikely that analog broadcasts will be completely halted in just a little over a year.

 

[Ted Todorov]

This is just funny. First of all, I think that a Federal mandate exists, to make all TVs *digital* by 2009(?), but that in no way implies that they will be 1080i/1920 capable 16:9 HDTVs -- just that they have digital tuners -- they can be 4:3 NTSC boxes for all anyone cares. Secondly, the date is likely to be pushed back, because broadcasters don't want to spend the $$ to upgrade all their equipment to HD.

Secondly and far more importantly: As of now Europe does not have HDTV. Europe is a bigger market than the US, with at least double the population. The idea that DVD players will not be available in 2009 is a fantasy. Until and unless HDTV is massively adopted in Europe, BluRay & HD-DVD will remain niche formats.

I also think that the likelyhood of $40 HD-DVD/BluRay/DVD/CD combo players in 2009 is zero. And if they don't exist, J6P will choose to buy what will be by then a $29 DVD player imported from China. Are you suggesting that someone will pass a law banning DVD players so that consumers will be forced to buy $200 BluRays?

Ted

 

[Don Solosan]

And in 1997, what did you think the price of DVD players would be in 2004? Considering that PS3 is supposed to sell for around $300, is it that unreasonable to think that the price on the technology will drop just as dramatically?

 

[Rob_Walton]

But maybe not all Blue Ray players will be created equal ? I wouldn't be surprised if PS3 only outputs at 720p or 1080i , and for the full whammy 1080p you'll have to pay closer to $500-$600 for a dedicated BR player .

Seems to me that the bloke who mentioned Europe's lack of HD content was dead on the money . With the exception of a few unbelievably expensive plasma and LCD sets there aren't even any HD-TVs to watch over here anyway . So if a Hollywood studio decided to stop making DVDs and ignored such a huge market I'd guess they'd go out of buisness pretty quickly !

 

[ElAhrai]

And while I don't think the end of traditional DVD is anywhere in sight, there has been a precedent set for the manufacture of particular media format for a non-U.S. market. IIRC both DAT and minidisc were/are popular formats in Japan for prerecorded audio content. But neither caught on with the American consumer (although the radio broadcast techs I know *love* both of them).

 

[Ernest Rister]

Oh, crikey. Again with the DAT, SACD, DVD-A analogies.

You people don't get it.

Don't worry. When your TV breaks anytime after 2010, you will. Oh yes....you will. Like it or not.

 

[Inspector Hammer!]

Wow, long thread! I skimmed over it and got the jist of it, i'm with those that will wait awhile before getting an HD-DVD deck of EITHER format until the technology proves itself and stablizes.

The last thing I want is another Panasonic A-110 situation, what a freakin nightmare that was! :frowning: Or my first DVD recorder, or should I say recorders (bought one and exchanged it), both of them failed, one almost immidiately and the other after a few months of moderate use.

I don't trust new technologies anymore.

And when HD-DVD players get more dependable, then i'll begin, slowly, one by one, two by two and so on until i've phased myself into it.

Just like I did when I had 200+ vhs's, got into Laserdisc, accumulated about 100 or so and phased out the tapes until none were left, then phased out Laserdisc slowly with DVD.

I've learned, much to the bewilderment of my friends and family, rebuilding my collection is part of this hobby. Re-buying my collection is something i'm willing to do...slowly and steadily.

It's not worth getting worked up just yet, it isn't here, it may be in 13 months or whatever, but it isn't here right now, so why worry? Waiting in anticipation for a format over a year away is sorta silly to me, why deprive yourself of some fun right now?

 

[Brent M]

Ernest,

Actually I think we all DO get it. We're arguing over something that is several years away from even being relevant. I never said that HD-DVD or Blu-Ray wouldn't eventually be dominant formats, but I did say that it will be a LONG time before either or both of them can dethrone DVD. Personally, the last thing I'm worrying about now is what formats will be available in 2010. If I was concerned about that, I wouldn't have bought LOTR EE, Collateral, I Robot and Top Gun this afternoon. I enjoy my DVD collection right now and I plan on doing so for the forseeable future.

 

[Paul.S]

To put a finer point on it, Brent, I think you've argued in multiple posts in a couple of threads that you're tired of being "milked" and don't intend to do what was discussed in the earlier segments of this thread before the recent studio announcements of which hi def format they're supporting: namely, adjust standard def buying habits based upon the hi rez future. This thread started with many people basically saying that, albeit speculatively, hi def is already very "relevant" in terms of their changed standard def buying habits.

Others, such as myself, have a different point of view: I intend to combat the "milking" by doing more Netflixing, more Amazon 'Marketplacing' at as cheap as possible prices and less buying on street date of standard def DVD given my interest in the imminent hi def future.

Today's releases provide good examples: I've been jonesing for the Top Gun: SE for years--that I'll buy sooner; Collateral, which I enjoyed, I'll buy later when it gets cheap on Marketplace; ROtK: EE will be an Xmas gift; I, Robot I loved and would ordinarily buy but will pass on unless/until it gets very cheap on Marketplace in about 6 months.

I guess part of what I'm saying is that I think we know where you stand. There are many others who occupy a large middle ground between, on the one hand, early adopters who will buy hi def players of whatever stripe/cost next Xmas and, on the other, guys such as yourself who are seemingly militantly resisting the new technology and might be overestimating others' disinterest in it.

-p

 

[Inspector Hammer!]

Paul,

I got rid of my tapes slowly, a few here and there to friends and family members, then to my boss who bought a sizable chunk of them, the rest went to a pawn shop, I actully bought my very first subwoofer with the money. It was a passive sub, but it rocked anyway.

My LD's went to a place in my area (since closed down) called Digitainment. They didn't give me cash, but rather store credit to get dvd's, I thought that was a fitting transition and a smooth one too.

 

[Sean Patrick]

i am thoroughly convinced that when hd-dvd becomes somewhate affordable (players at around $500) HDTV will become 100% mainstream. everyone i know who doesn't have an hdtv is holding off until "they can get hd dvd's".

 

[Jeremy Wadian]

Well, I plan on upgrading my movies to HD-DVD/BluRay the same way that I've been upgrading from a bare bones dvd to a special edition dvd of the same title. For example; when I bought the new version of Seven to replace my original copy I wasn't all bent out of shape and worried about replacing my entire movie collection. I just take it one movie at a time.

 

[Ernest Rister]

"Wow. I agree w/ Ernest on something."

Its hard to disagree with a fact (i.e., Disney admitting in a conference call they are dumping their library onto DVD in prep for HD home video formats), unless you have a better one.

 

[Ernest Rister]

"I enjoy my DVD collection right now and I plan on doing so for the forseeable future."

Since Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are both backwards-compatible, I don't see why this would concern you even for the UNforseeable future.

To borrow from a new ad campaign....

HDTV is already here.

War of the Home Video Worlds

Coming 2005-2008.

 

[Paul.S]

Although not Platinum Di$ney titles (and speaking of titles that I've been jonesing for for years and that I'll buy standard def), I do wanna know where the freak my Crimson Tide and Enemy Of the State SEs are . . .

-p

 

[Ted Todorov]

Well, until someone explains how this switch over to HD is going to happen, without HDTV existing in Europe, I will continue not to get it. And I will continue to mention the very apt SACD/DVD-A analogy.

Ted

 

[ElAhrai]

I understand why Ernest says that come 2010 when TVs fail that consumers will be pressed to replace them with HD sets (in North America at least).

What I don't see is how this upcoming format war is any different from DVD-A/SACD.

Two differing formats competing against a superficially similar yet already widely adopted format?

Check.

Significant increase in quality over current product?

Check.

Lack of any other significant change in media distribution?

Check.

Two sides releasing exclusive titles on each format?

As of yet unknown, but if I were a betting man I'd say we'll see this.

Early adopters singing the praises of each format?

Check.

Rest of the public unaware?

Check.

If anything I'd say that HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are worse off because most people don't have projectors that they watch movies on. Most home theaters are built around 27" to 32" TVs. And while there is nothing wrong with that, it means that those with that sort of set up won't see the immediate increase in quality available.

Heck, I know people that are running projectors and 56" projection sets for their displays and they have told me that they A) don't see much difference between HD and SD and B) don't care.

But if there is something that I'm missing, I honestly want to know about it.

 

[rich_d]

:alien: