Stopping DVD purchases or upgrading dvd library to High Def. (1 Viewer)

[Norm]

I'm not going to put a time table on it. But I think it will be faster than DVD. The Stores will be pushing it like crazy when people come in to buy new TVs next fall.

 

[Norm]

I want to add IF the HD/Blueray players are recordable from the get go, if not then I agree it will take longer than DVD. Record ability is the key.

 

[Michael Elliott]

I'm really not sure. I guess we could look at the debate over SPIDER MAN 2 with the regular SE and the Superbit.

However, I'm sorry but it's rather strange that there are video problems with films made in 2004 yet stuff from the 30's can look so great. To me, the studios are adding this EE, filtering and everything else so that the Home Theater junkie can show off their systems. A Home Theater junkie is a lot different than a movie junkie. How can GONE WITH THE WIND look so great or THE GENERAL look so great yet stuff as recent as SPIDER MAN 2 have problems?

 

[Don Solosan]

I think this is a horrible analogy! Think about the way most people experience their music: in cars, over headphones, etc. Those formats offer these people nothing. Whereas anybody with a TV set can get improved picture quality with HD. And as HD sets penetrate the market, the improvement they experience will only increase.

 

[Don Solosan]

Five to ten years is nothing in a normal business model. Some of the Japanese companies involved have plans that look ahead 200 years. Take into account that we probably won't see these products for another two years, and your prediction has DVD phased out as soon as three years after the introduction of HD. Not bad.

Does anyone think they're going to stop at 1080p resolution?

 

[Brent M]

Don,

Not everyone has a high end display or will buy a HDTV either. A lot of people who can't afford a brand new high definition television will buy the cheap converter for their old analog TV(s) when the analog signal is eventually cut off so the improvements of HD-DVD/Blu-Ray will mean nothing to them........the same way SACD and DVD-A don't mean anything to a lot of people. Just because a format might be superior technology-wise doesn't mean it will be a success. If it did SACD, DVD-A, D-VHS and a lot of other fledgling formats would have become much more popular than they are.

 

[Herb Kane]

I agree with every word of Michael’s post - except for one sentence. My wants total 62 from the same '05 period…

From someone who was fortunate enough to experience the BR demo at Sony/Columbia back in September, I want very much for this to succeed. But I have huge doubts as to whether or not it’ll fly. And my biggest doubt comes down to the average movie buyer, who simply wants to walk in to his/her retailer and plunk their $10-15.00 bucks down for Tuesday’s newest release. That average Joe/Jane outnumbers us (HT enthusiasts) by 1000:1 if not more. Regardless of the format that’s chosen, “mainstream” is what will be the determining factor.

The fact that the PS3 or Dell is going to support this isn’t going to create a HT enthusiast… it isn’t going to change the fact that the vast majority of folks are more than happy (apparently – according to the numbers) with standard definition DVD.

And for fans of classics, Michael is spot on; most of these older films are going to look virtually identical to SD releases. HD will do very little to improve many of these classics in fact, the affect might be detrimental…depending on what, if any, restoration is done. If this does catch on, sadly, we’ll be another 10 years behind while the studios do re-re-re-re-releases of T2, The Matrix, LOTR etc etc. in other words, if you are a fan of older or obscure films, I wouldn’t hesitate for one second as to whether to buy it now or wait… life is too short.

 

[Michael Elliott]

Don, I'm not sure about the BB claims, although that was some interesting news. I wonder if these budget DVD players has had an effect on their numbers? We're here saying people won't buy HD because of the price but I wonder how many would buy a regular DVD player for $200+ when you can get one from Target, Wal Mart or K-Mart for $20-$40?

I also think the sales would show in movies bought instead of actual players. Everyone here probably buys an average of 100 DVDs a year but only get a new machine every three years or so. I'm sure many here might even have the same player for 5+ years.

 

[Ernest Rister]

"Don,

Not everyone has a high end display or will buy a HDTV either. A lot of people who can't afford a brand new high definition television will buy the cheap converter for their old analog TV(s) when the analog signal is eventually cut off so the improvements of HD-DVD/Blu-Ray will mean nothing to them."

Once again, this will only work until that TV breaks, and when these people go to buy a new TV, guess what? All the TVs will be HD sets. Eventually, all TVs will be HDTVs, you WON'T BE ABLE TO BUY A NON-HD SET by 2010 or 2011.

"The same way SACD and DVD-A don't mean anything to a lot of people. Just because a format might be superior technology-wise doesn't mean it will be a success."

Is there a Federal Mandate requiring that all radio boradcasts be in DVD-A by 2007-2009? Are all desktop computers adopting SACD or DVD-A? Is the new Playstation 3 going to offer SACD? You are not using an apples-to-apples analogy. HDTV is here, and it is growing, and it is only a matter of time before it is the dominant viewing format in America, and only a matter of time before you will not be able to buy a non-HD capable DVD player. I called Madame Cleo and she told me so, personally.

 

[Brent M]

Ernest,

This is similar to DVD-A and SACD because those are superior formats technology-wise that haven't been adopted by the mass market due to the success of a dominant medium that people are happy with. Just because HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will be better than DVD, it doesn't mean everyone will instantly be compelled to go out and buy 2 new players, a new receiver or pre-pro to decode the new audio formats and most importantly repurchase their entire DVD library all over again. At a certain point, people get tired of being treated like sheep by the big companies. There will be a huge backlash from the mass market because they have just converted over to DVD from VHS in the past 1-5 years and now they're being told they have to upgrade to a new format all over again in such a short period of time. It won't fly! You'll be able to buy non-HD DVD players for a very long time because until Blu-Ray or HD-DVD players/recorders are available for under $100, there will be a lot of people who will not upgrade.

 

[Don Solosan]

Brent,

What Ernest and I are saying (and forgive me, Ernest, if I'm misrepresenting your comments) is not that the manufacturers are going to force anyone to buy their products -- it's that they are going to engineer the marketplace so you have no choice but to eventually buy them, superior or not. This change will be relatively painless because the new machines will play the old discs, and at least Blu-Ray seems committed to bringing out an inexpensive machine (the PS3) right out of the gate. But all technology dies, and when it does they'll be there when you walk into the electronics store. Standard def TV? Not available. DVD only players? Nope.

The music industry did this successfully in the past, only software drove the change. When popular music was just starting to get released on CD, the record companies made vinyl more financially risky for record stores. CDs were less risky as a result, and they stocked more and phased out vinyl. Soon your favorite artists were only available on CD, so you had to buy a CD player, or get left behind.

Some people are sick of all these changes, only I'm guessing they aren't teenagers who dig technology and want the newest, latest, fastest and will be getting jobs, have disposible income and help drive the changes in the years to come.

 

[Brent M]

Well, only time will tell, but do I expect a lot of resistance towards these new formats because people ARE sick of the changes and being "milked" by these companies every few years.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

I think you'd be amazed how many teenagers are equipped for vinyl even now. Technology, like DVD, has to be a social trend before teens pick it up. The real movers and shakers are rich people and children. Rich people have the disposable income necessary for non-mainstream hardware - "the early adopter." Meanwhile, we have a generation of children that are growing up for which DVD has always existed. Hell, the current crop of college kids don't know a time before the video tape. And with that, I have no idea where this is going.

 

[Glenn Overholt]

This is so, so much fun! For the people that can't count, this is 2004, and if you add 5 (from 5 - 10 years), you get 2009! Exactly what Ernest said!

Now, pay attention! HDTV is being shoved down our throats. I think by next July, analog sets will be illegal to sell in the US of A. HD only!

If every household in the US buys one TV every 5 years, which I don't think is that unreasonable) - they are going to have at least one HD set by 2009.

Before then, all TV signals will be HD. Anybody that is using an antenna is going to be seeing snow! If you're broke, maybe you'll just get a converter, but now you really have a dinosaur in your house! Getting a new set will be what most viewers will go for.

Sure, you can go and sit in the corner and whine that you will go broke keeping up with all of this, but this won't happen overnight. The good news is that you will be ready when a piece of your gear bites the dust. If you can hold out until the HD/Blu-Ray format war is over until you buy ANYTHING - we, as a collective buying public, will have shown the manufacturers that we won't be screwed with!

Glenn

 

[rich_d]

I have no idea about the overall credibility of ShowBizData might be but the article title and content is more than misleading it is flat out incorrect.

What percent of Best Buy's revenues come from DVD sales??? How in the world does that equate to DVD Sales? If they want to report same period DVD sales that is one thing but comparing sales as a percent of total revenue is nonsense. If Best Buy's CD sales were exceptional this year does DVD sales (as a percent of Best Buy's total revenue) make DVD revenues are flat? Absolute nonsense. If the clubs and groups like DeepDiscountDVD stole market share from Best Buy this year does that make DVD sales flat?

The Digital Bits post DVD player sales by month (as provided by the Consumer Electronics Association) as well. http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articl...advdsales.html

The "sales" are really sales from manufacturer to retailer rather than retailer to consumer but certainly is credible when comparing period to period sales. The numbers show that if November and December sales figures merely match last year's November and December numbers than 2004 will be slightly larger than 2003. How that gets summed up as a 25 percent drop (as mentioned in the article) is quite questionable. Even then, we know that the average unit revenue that the manufacturer is going to get from the retailer is going down so unit sales would certainly exceed the 2003 number. And new unit sales is the important number as incremental DVD sales follow DVD player sales. Note: it would be interesting to know how and if they divide up the sales for vcr/dvd combo players. Who gets what credit for the sale? Or how about DVD recorders that also play DVDs - how is that included in the mix or is that a separate number? What about DVD player in new or upgraded computers?

Bottom line is all you have to do is look at the increased shelf space being allocated to DVDs at Best Buy or Wal-mart to understand the growth in DVD sales. Or that all those DVD players sold last year will absolutely feed incremental dvd sales. DVD sales flat? Nonsense.

Besides that I thought the article posted was spot on.

 

[Don Solosan]

So The Digital Bits would seem to confirm that hardware sales have leveled off, after seeing yearly increases of 4 to 5 million units (assuming Nov and Dec match last year's performance).

The Hollywood Reporter has 2003's DVD revenues as $14.3 billion. The only number I can find for 2004 is from DVDexclusive and covers up to November 20th: $12.9 billion.

Nonsense, Rich? Maybe you're not doing your part to feed incremental DVD sales...

 

[rich_d]

Dan,

Oh, coming up with "numbers" from DVD Exclusive is quite easy - whether they are pertinent is another matter. Here are some more from 12/13/04:


So which is it Dan? Higher revenue from DVD sales and even higher unit sales (as titles are selling for less on average) or flat sales? Have you also factored in DVD rentals in or don't they count towards your point of the flatness of the DVD platform?

DVD Exclusive's own numbers are based on what they call "research" but do not define. Therefore we don't know whether that is one clerk with his wet index finger pointed up in the wind or something more substantial. Does Wal-mart and Best Buy share revenue numbers with these guys ...? Do they have accurate numbers on Hong Kong, Korean and Canadian DVD sales to the U.S. ..?

What we do know is that DVD producers and retailers do not report sales or unit sales thus the reason that these groups report "estimates."

When the Wall Street Journal or other credible source reports flat DVD unit sales please let us know. Otherwise, get out of the way, there is another section of shelves coming through the door to make room for all the old TV shows being released.

 

[Ernest Rister]

Yeah, make way for those shelves as the studios rush product to market before the HD convergence, so they can sell the same titles all over again in the HD format. Before you laugh, just know that's *precisely* why Disney ramped up their Platinum Edition release schedule, and they said it explicitly during a conference call revealing their DVD plans over a year ago. They want all of their profile titles out by 2007, so they can start taking advantage of the opportunities in HD starting in 2008.

 

[Brent M]

Illegal to sell analog sets by next July, huh? Can we place bets on this forum because if so, you've got yourself a wager.

 

[Ernest Rister]

I think George was using hyperbole, but over at Fry's Electronics, the ratio of HDTVs to NTSC TVs is now over 50% in favor of HD. Up by a huge margin from just a year ago. What will it look like next year? What will it look like in 2008?