X-Box launch in Japan -sucess or failure: your predictions? (1 Viewer)

[Sean Oneil]

With the launch of the X-Box in Japan looming ever closer, What are everyones feelings about how well this American born and bred console will fare with the Japanese gamers?
I just pulled some interesting information from www.xboxgamers.com regarding Amazon.com Japan's latest pre-order status:

Want to know if the Xbox is doing good over in the gaming capital of the world? Well, we have the answer.
Amazon.co.jp has informed us that pre-orders are extremely high. The president of Amazon Of Japan said "The demand is very favourable".
These comments are backed up with the Top-100 sales list on Japans leading e-commerce website, Amazon.co.jp:
1 - Special Edition Xbox - Xbox
4 - Dead Or Alive 3 - Xbox
8 - Xbox Memory Unit - Xbox
11 - Genma Onimusha - Xbox
13 - Project Gotham Racing - Xbox
14 - Castle Of Shigimiki - Xbox
30 - Xbox Controller (Black) - Xbox
37 - Bistro Cupid - Xbox
47 - Jet Set Radio Future - Xbox
49 - DVD Playback Kit - Xbox
80 - Silent Hill 2 - Xbox
86 - Nezmix - Xbox
98 - Xbox Power Cord - Xbox
The Gamecube Console only managed to reach number 40 while its highest title, (Gamecubes main title for 2002) Resident Evil only managed to reach 23rd in the highest sales/pre-orders list.
The PS2 Console does not feature in the Top 100 Sales and Preorders chart but its most preordered title, Onimusha 2 managed to grab the 2nd spot. (2nd to the Xbox Console) While the PS2's biggest selling title, Virtua Fighter managed to grab the 17th spot.

So what does everyone think? Personally, I believe that the Japanese gamers will appreciate the gaming experience of the X-Box (480p, DD 5.1 audio, and the most powerful console hardware currently available), especially if Microsoft can get Halo translated and released over there in a hurry.
I have to admit, I was very supprised to see how well the X-Box was pre-selling over in Japan -if in fact these numbers are accurate, and a reflection of the overall attitude of the Japanese gaming public towards Xboxen.
I do think that it is funny how the X-Box power cord placed in the top 100... apparently a few Japanese are expecting the worst
Your predictions?

 

[Romier S]

especially if Microsoft can get Halo translated and released over there in a hurry.

Considering Japanese gamers are known for not being the biggest fans of the FPS genre I think Microsoft was smart in not marketing Halo as there biggest release title. They really have there hopes behind DOA3 and Jet Grind Radio Future which look to be 2 of there biggest releases over there (of course you could have worse).
From looking at the release list it appears The box has a solid lineup of games and I, like yourself, feel that our friends in Japan will give the box a chance. I will be suprised if the X-box is an utter flop in Japan. I just do not see that happening. I also don't think the X-box is going to be an immediate "out of this world" success either. I think your going to see about the same buzz as the GC release. No huge lines or people waiting for 72 hours for thier X-box, but very decent sales which in the end is all MS is looking for I think. (I'm sure they would love it to be a success but you gotta believe MS is trying to stay humble when it comes to the Japanese market).
The biggest issue I see right now in the X-box's japanese future is a solid RPG. There is no denying how powerful a good RPG is in Japan and that is really the biggest dent in MS's armor IMHO>

 

[Masood Ali]

A little Amazon/Microsoft hype never hurts, especially when it comes to launch time.

However, I think the actual sales figures will be more down to earth, with Japanese-based titles leading the pack (like DOA3, Onimusha, and Sega's tremendous lineup).

Sega's support is MS's ace in the hole.

 

[Carl Johnson]

I don't know anything about the Japanese video game market but I would be sceptical of any top 100 sales chart that includes an X Box power cord, doubly so in a country where the system has yet to be released. Why would anybody buy one of those?

 

[Dan Brecher]

I think it will meet success there, just maybe not right away. A big problem for them must be the size of the console, all very well they're getting smaller joypads, but the machine itself is huge. Even I was shocked at its size (and I can't get one on its UK launch next month as I literally wont have the spcae to put one!)...

Sega's strong bind to the X-box is going to secure interest from the Japanese public I think.

Dan (UK)

 

[Iain Lambert]

Given the demand on NCS for the thing, I'm not surprised that there are a lot of requests for the limited edition X-Box pack; numbers from an online site for a funky looking seethrough version only released in Japan in a fun of 50,000 aren't going to be a reliable guide of what the average Japanese consumer thinks of the machine.

In fact, if Amazon aren't doing something funny here then their portion of those 50,000 are basically enough to fulfil all their launch pre-orders. All of a sudden the numbers don't look very good...

 

[Morgan Jolley]

I think the X-Box launch might be better than the GameCube launch simply because of more games, some of which are made by Sega. Long term, I could see MS falling behind because its a very American console in terms of games. There will be a lot of Sega and more Japanese games, but that doesn't mean they will be widely accepted. Metal Gear Solid 2 was a Japanese game that was pretty much "made" for the American market.

 

[Jeff Kleist]

Dreamcast broke all kinds of records too

Ask me a year from now, when I think PS2 will continue to crush the competition. Nintendo is pretty much dead in its homeland, but while Yamanuchi is still alive they will never give up there. So there is room for a solid #2. I look at their launch lineup, and I don't see any Japan-centric games. I don't see an RPG in their lineup, nor one in the near future. That's going to hurt MS. It's going to be up to Sega's killer softwre to keep them afloat, they'd better hope it's enough

 

[DonWinzen]

Actually pre-sales trends do predict success or failure accurately. Several posters' remarks demonstrate personal bias towards one console or another including those for the XBOX. The list illustrates the fact that the Japanese are reacting more favorably toward the XBOX than did Americans.

I personally cannot predict how it will do in the long run but if you look at how successful the MS machine has been in recruiting 3rd party support from traditionally Sony backed developers, you can expect good things to happen and a heavy XBOX impact in the land of the rising sun.

 

[BrianB]

Actually pre-sales trends do predict success or failure accurately.

In that case, the Dreamcast was the most successful console ever then?

 

[Iain Lambert]

I fully expect the X-Box, like most consoles, to sell out on launch day. Thats standard procedure. All I'm pointing to with my comment is that Amazon.co.jp is the last place I'd look for evidence of local popularity. They could probably sell every single Limited Edition X-Box to Americans (or Europeans for that matter) even if the Japanese didn't want it. That thing looks almost as cool as the Dev Kit does, and I've lost count of the number of threads from people wanting to import controllers.

Fundamentally, talk of success or failure of either the Box or the Cube can't be done until much later this year.

p.s. Is Biohazard really expected to be that popular then? I've never expected large preorders for software, certainly not for a remake of a title most who want it already have.

 

[Kip]

In that case, the Dreamcast was the most successful console ever then?

Ah, if only that were true.
The Japanese market is really tough to predict. I wouldn't hang my hat on Amazon's presales figures. What percentage of Japanese gamers actually use Amazon to do their purchasing.
Also, counting on Sega's support of the X-Box to insure sucess is a bit premature. Didn't help the Dreamcast much in Japan. The Japanese market seems to be all about Sony. If Nintendo, a Japanese company with a tremendous legacy struggles in Japan, it will be very tough for the X-Box as well.
Kip

 

[Chris Bardon]

A little off topic, but has anyone seen a pic of the Limeted edition translucent box? Wouldn't mind seing what it looked like...

 

[Dan B]

Chris, I think I saw a pic over at gamespot.com or coremagazine.com. If you can't find it, I'll try to find where it was later.

-Dan

 

[Jeff Kleist]

The Japanese market is really tough to predict. I wouldn't hang my hat on Amazon's presales figures. What percentage of Japanese gamers actually use Amazon to do their purchasing.

Not that many I'm guessing. The real clue will be the lines in Akihabara, and then the sales about 2 months after it comes out. Japan ALWAYS has big lines for a new system (well, Gamecube didn't have very big lines) and this will be no different. The question is how many of them will play the launch titles, and sell the system back, or just go back to playing their PS2

N64's sales jumped 500% when Zelda 64 came out. People bought a console, played Zelda, sold it.

 

[Romier S]

Chris,
Go here to see a pic of the speical limited edition X-box:
http://xbox.jp/about/spe_xbox.html

 

[Frederick]

Wow ... that's a really nice looking system. I'd like to get my hands on one of those. Hell, even the keychains look cool ...
Freddy C.

 

[DonWinzen]

BrianB, thank you for your sarcasm. And yes, the Dreamcast would have been considered one of the more successful consoles if Sega could have continued support. The amount of games available for it was impressive and the support was very good.

When the console started to die was when Sega could not continue to carry it because of the financial burden. Sony has done an excellent job ensuring the royalties were there for the games on both PS1 and PS2. MS knew it had to garner third party support for the longevity of the XBOX even though they lose money up-front each time a console goes into someones home.

So yes, the Dreamcasts' pre-sales was an indicator of success but it needs further company support to keep it going. The same thing can be said for Microsoft in Japan. If they aren't very careful, the XBOX will be a miserable failure and many Japanese XBOX owners will be disappointed.

 

[BrianB]

BrianB, thank you for your sarcasm.

You're welcome
I just threw that comment in to show how looking at console launches these days doesn't really show too much about the long haul. It's the Christmas 12/18 months later that counts - that's when you can tell whether the console has reached critical mass. The DC never made that leap into mass numbers. Unfortunately.

 

[DonWinzen]

Brian, the sad thing about the Dreamcast was that it didn't appeal to the masses the way the PS2 has. The comment I made that the indicators are there is accurate however marketing plays a huge role in the continued success. If the XBOX did not have the presales numbers that they are getting in Japan, there would not be a lot of hope for the console in that country.

That is not to say that it could start slow and gather an audience but it is unlikely. Japan is known to be against non-Japanese consumer electronics. The same can be said of American consumers (gamers). Too many fanboys that cannot appreciate other consoles for their abilities. The Dreamcast itself could have succeeded but there are numerous reasons it didn't.

I hope the PS2 continues to do well as well as the XBOX. I would hate to think that I wasted my money on either but oh well. The GameCube, I don't know. I may purchase it for my kids and I am interested in the Resident Evil series so it may find a home in my house. If it wasn't for the strenghth of Nintendo, I would seriously doubt the Gamecube would make it but it is way too early too tell.

Talk to you later.