Sony CEO sees ‘stalemate’ in disc fight (1 Viewer)

[Stephen_J_H]

Which all goes to what I said earlier: in an effort to succeed in their pissing match, both Sony and Toshiba rushed their stuff to market before working the kinks out. Big mistake.

 

[RobertR]

Why indeed. It may be irksome to some to see the thread title showing itself in this section, thereby undermining any notion of an inevitable BR victory, but there's nothing in the excerpt that makes the thread title misleading.

 

[Brian-W]

The PS3 (nor XBox) need anything more than a DVD drive. Many games would easily fit on a single layer, and in some cases dual layer DVD disc. If we were all doing games that required massive amounts of compressed HD in 1080p, then more than a DVD would be necessary. But most games use the game engine to render the cinematic sequences.

The BD drive in the PS3 was purely about leveraging the success of Playstation to help BD succeed. It could also be argued that it was incorporated into PS3 to leverage the PS3 as a 'media hub' if you will. Look at all the things the PS3 can do and will do, and the PS3 becomes the 'all in one' box.

Smart from an audio/video component perspective - silly (and costing plenty) to the marketshare of the PS3 as a game console.

 

[Scott Jentsch]

The complete text of the interview as posted above doesn't really change the tone of the initial coverage that started this conversation.

Stringer sounds stunned/mystified by the successes that HD DVD has had over the past several months, and the benefits that he mentions of the Blu-ray format have yet to be realized by any disc that has been released or announced. Until there is a disc that takes advantage of what he's talking about, and there is a player that can play such a disc, it's hard to take his comments with anything but a boulder-sized grain of salt.

This "stalemate" happened because HD DVD performed well from the get-go and the Blu-ray format (players and discs) is still trying to pick up steam. His comments do nothing to provide encouragement that the players or the movies are going to live up to the potential of the format, and only slight encouragement that there might be some additional price drops in the future.

 

[Bryan X]

It kinda reminds me of all the grand things we were told we were going to see with the advent of DVD. Mostly never happened.

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

That is not entirely correct. 'Lost Planet: Extreme Condition' has been announced for the PS3 and guess what, while the PC and XBox360 versions requires a huge (approx 1.6GB) download to play the game, the PS3 version will not need to download anything. I am sure with time the games will require more and more space as is already being proved by the 'Lost Planet' example. Sony has time and again stated that for them a gaming console has a life cycle of atleast 6-8 yrs. I am sure the extra space provided by Blu-Ray will be needed a lot sooner than the targetted lifespan of the PS3.

You are ofcourse right about the fact that Sony was definately looking to leverage the PS3 in the HD format war. After all with that single move they have in some ways guaranteed that Blu-Ray will survive, irrespective how the HD war turns out. It is also quite evident that Sony is trying to position the PS3 as far more than just a gaming console, it is truelly the "all in one" box. The fact is, for all that a PS3 does, it really is excellent value for money.

As for the inclusion of Blu-Ray in the PS3 costing Sony marketshare in the gaming market, it is quite self evident. But I think that is only in the short term. Even now, most analysts beleive that the PS3 will become the dominant gaming console in the long run. Can you imagine the number of units the PS3 might sell with a $299 price tag a year from now?

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

My reason for suggesting that "the admins might want to consider closing this thread" is that quite a few of the posts are speculating far more than what was said or implied by the original statements of Stringer and more importantly because, the thread seemed to be crossing into the HD war zone. Also, my suggestion was just for the admins to "consider" closing the thread as an option and I have not actually asked for the same.

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

Given the hypothetical scenario of Blu-Ray failing to become the dominant HD format, would'nt that be the prudent business decision to take? Considering that so many have made it a point to say that the PS3 really does not need a Blu-Ray disk for the 1080p games, why could'nt Sony simply swap the Blu-Ray drive with a DVD drive? Lest anyone think otherwise, let me clarify at the outset that I am not suggesting that this is what I believe would happen. Personally I am 100% sure that Blu-Ray is here for good, irrespective of the results of the HD format war. The PS3 will always have a Blu-Ray drive and games on Blu-Ray will continue to be released. The over 6 million PS3 already sold and the millions more that will be sold in the years to come before a verdict on the HD format is reached, will have ensured this.

 

[ErichH]

A Truther At Heart

Everyone enjoying the beta equipment?

 

[RobertR]

Based on what? Price (unlikely)? Quality of games (how does one predict what games will be most desireable)?

 

[Aaron Silverman]

I've read that too, although I haven't gone too deep into the details. I think the idea is that in a few years, the price will be the same (it practically is already if you compare the $400 PS3 to an X360 + HD-DVD drive) and new games will take better advantage of the PS3's more sophisticated hardware. Nobody is saying that the PS3 will surpass the X360 as the game console of choice in the next year or two.

 

[RobertR]

That sounds like a recipe for failure to me. If the PS3 strategy is going to succeed, it had better be the hottest game machine on the market (it isn't), and at the same time, it had better be prompting huge BR sales (that isn't happening either). And no one thinks people are buying it to access the Internet.

 

[ppltd]

Do you have specs of the disk usage of the DVD version of the 360 of PC versions, or how much of that download is code replacement vrs new content? Or how how of that new content would have fit on the DVD if it were available at the initial release of the 360 of PC version? Even if a game requires multiple disks, I will take the inconvience of the rare disk swaps or downloads over the excruciatingly slow BD load times which have forced many games designers to load critical data from the BD to the HD on the PS3 to make the game playable. Nothing kills gameplay more than long load times.

 

[Paul_Scott]

an HD DVD drive would
1) be backwards compatible with DVD (so it would/could play PS2 games)
2) offer more space than a DVD
3) likely be less expensive and more ubiquitious if consumers begin to mass adopt the cheaper HD DVD stand alones.

so this hypothetical PS3 with an HD DVD drive could play large capacity games, as well as *inexpensively produced HDMs*

and that last bit is the cruxt- If someone like Stringer sees any kind of a possiblity at all that they may have to modify the PS3 at some point in the future because it is underperforming with Bd- why would the keep lines running- or build new lines to produce discs?
Not only do they have to pay down the debt for the construction of these new lines, but the discs themselves are are not turning the company a profit because any royalties they *may* be getting at the moment are sucked into the ether to pay off the HUGE losses Sony is taking for the consoles.
The whole point of making Bd the next standard was to generate a consistent steady income from royalties and licenses.
Instead, they had to leverage these already to get Warner and Paramount on board (and possibly others). And yet they lost Parmount; Fox and MGM are canceling titles left and right, and they are further discounting the PS3. Where are the royalties going to come from to make a dent in the debt they are piling on from PS3 price reductions and the ground floor up construction of Bd lines?
And all this to wind up in a stalemate with a competing format with lower infrastructure costs, and possibly more mass appeal?

Honestly, it's no wonder to me that Stringer is pragmatic about these options and potential outcomes- just that he is being completely up front about it.

and as must be said- I don't want Bd to go anywhere anytime soon. I want it to thrive so that Fox and MGM will actually release content instead of being a mere talking point. I want to get some value out of my $500 player purchase before the format pulls the plug.

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

Not sure based on what, but I presume that it's based on the 'normal' paramaters that analysts base their projections on. Although you could take the stand that 'analysts' are not worth anything, I am merely stating what most analysts, who strangely enough are paid good money to do what they do, have stated their projections are for the PS3 ie. post 2008 the PS3 will be the most dominant gaming console. By the way, the projections were made well after the lukewarm sales that the PS3 had initially upon launch.

 

[Brian-W]

A DVD holds 4.35GB worth of usable data; dual layer holds 8GB. Most games do not need beyond the obligatory single layer worth. I say most (quantify it as you will). Don't let 1080p get you thinking that the data set suddenly quadruples - it doesn't. I'm speaking from the game perspective, not video. Additionally many games that support 1080i/p, "support it" but doesn't mean the core dataset (i.e. the textures) are actually in the 1080i/p format (or even optimized). Just means the console can uprez everything without taking a performance hit.

As for Lost Planet, that dataset according to what I can research is under 6GB, again, fits well under a dual layer DVD disc. I'd like to know waht 1.6GB you're referring to - if it's additional maps and characters, that's added content offered after the release of the initial game.

I've been developing games for over 15 years, and when I read that "Blu-Ray is needed for next-gen games" I about fell out of my seat laughing - again, most developers don't need more than around 5GB, and in some cases a bit more than that. But 20GB? 25GB? 50GB? Maybe if they're including a whole ******** of compressed FMV. The last game I shipped was on both X360 and PS3, and it all fit conveniently on a single layer DVD - even though it shipped on PS3 on a Blu-Ray disc (required of all PS3 games).

 

[ppltd]

Do you have links? Most of the recent comments I have read from the analysts have downgraded their expectations of the PS3's success and now see a very different long term expectations. While the PS3 may, and that is a much more uncertain may than 6 months ago, end up having the largest install base between the 360 and PS3, it will more likely be pretty equal. And the Wii will probably have a base equal to both the 360 and PS3 combined. If the PS3 can not make an impact this holiday season it is likely that the analysts will again reaccess their comments.

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

I own the PC version, which I just popped in to the PC and it seems that there is 7.16GB of data on the DVD-ROM disk. I had to download over 1.6GB of data just to be able to start playing the game and please keep in mind that the PC version came out atleast 6 months, if not longer, after the Xbox360 version came out, which ought to have given Capcom the opportunity to put any 'add-on' data on the DVD itself. Also please keep in mind that there is additional content offered as a download to 360 owners. All of this additional content will also be included on the Blu-ray disc. By the way as per the original Capcom press release, all this, including all the extras on the disk and no downloading required, is possible due to Blu-Ray.

 

[Brian-W]

And keep in mind the PS3 version isn't coming out until next year - aside from the space available on Blu-Ray, there's no point making users download content that has been available on other formats previously.

Finally, as for the PC, I can't speak for Capcom, but perhaps it's a cost issue - they made the content available for PC users that really wanted it (extra content), but 'making' users download that much content just so the game 'works' - I don't buy it.

 

[Sanjay Gupta]

I really don't have too much experience with recent games, it's been almost ten yrs since I lost interest in games, until the PS3 rejuvenated my interest in gaming. But honestly, after I was done installing the game from the DVD, it would not let me play and or do anything else until I allowed the installation process to download what I later discovered to be over 1.6GB of data. I waited almost 24 hrs before I could play the game, because all I have available is a "upto" 256kbps connection. :frowning:

PS: I got the game bundled for free along with my XFX 8800GTS graphics card.