Serenity (2005) (1 Viewer)

[Qui-Gon John]

I'd say there's a fourth reason, which is that "Joe Sixpack" has a dvd player and is wise to dvd release patterns. I mean, in my workplace, for instance, I hear this same conversation any time the subject of going to the movies comes up: "Considering what Hollywood is releasing nowadays, is it really worth paying out the ass to see something that I can watch in more comfort and for less money at home in three months? HELL NO!!!" Every single time. It's just getting harder and harder to pry people out of their homes for a theatrical movie.

I agree. And it may make some mad here, but basically this is how I feel. I did see Serenity, with my son, a bday present from him. $13.00 for the two of us to see it in the early afternoon, (one time). The DVD would have only cost a few dollars more, the whole family could see it, and I'd be able to rewatch it whenever I felt like it. ANd not have to shlep out to the theater, put up with people walking around, (including an usher with a flashlight), cell phone going off, etc. This is why the last film I saw in the theater, before Serenity, was Revenge of the Sith.

Oh, by the way, I did like Serenity. I just can't believe they killed off 2 of the crew.

 

[ThomasC]

The first 9 minutes are online:
http://video.vividas.com/CDN1/3929_S...web/index.html

 

[Robert Ringwald]

Predictions have the film dropping about 50% this weekend. I'm predicting a total gross of just under 25 million US.

It really depends on overseas grosses now.

 

[David Rogers]

We're screwed as far as the US$80mil target goes. If I recall correctly, general rule of thumb as the world markets generating about as much as the North American market; that'll put us around US$50mil ... short of the US$80mil specified as necessary for a sequel.

Best bet is that Universal is serious about DTD and doesn't have the usual studio idiots in charge of that program. Direct to Video had bad connotations because the content was usually crap; but there's nothing inheriently wrong with the Direct-To model, just what's being put into it.

I for one would be quite happy to pay directly for episodic content (movie or series) if the content is to my liking. And a DTD market should support as many niches as there are dollars; no competition for a 'broad audience' necessary.

 

[NeilO]

Does anyone remember what television ratings for the show were? How many people ended up regularly watching Firefly? Also, how many units of the DVD set have been bought? I'd think that everyone who bought the DVD set probably has seen the movie so far. Do the figures suggest that everyone who was watching the show has seen the movie yet?

Neil

 

[SpenceJT]

Loved the movie and went to my local Best Buy last night to buy a second set of the Firefly series on DVD (to loan out and help spread the word) and they are SOLD OUT!

I may have to mail order them!

 

[Robert Anthony]

Yeah, you're going to have to mail order em. I haven't found a single copy on shelves for the past month and a half, actually.

Neil: The ratings were pretty damned low. I think only one or two episodes ever cracked 3.5

 

[Phil Iturralde]

The ratings were pretty damned low. I think only one or two episodes ever cracked 3.5

Blame the big-wigs @ Fox for the low ratings, ... they played the Episodes in random order.

The actual Episode #1 "Serenity", ... the 2 hour (let's introduce the principal cast) pilot aired in December 20, 2002!!!

The first aired Firefly show "The Train Job" (September 20, 2002), was, ... (I think don't have my set in front of me) Episode #3 or #4!!!

Phil

 

[Will_B]

Universal's publicity (or the firm they hire out) had set up, about 2 weeks ago, interviews with Fillion and Tudyk for our station, to occur today, because they wanted to pimp the 2nd weekend.

Daily Dose of Serenity shows the cast was in London at HMV as of yesterday for the UK premiere:
Click here for "Nathan at the UK premiere, and Nathan, Joss & Summer doing a signing in HMV in London at lunchtime today"

 

[KevinGress]

I have to agree with others who've posted that if the US BO suffers that it's mostly due to 2 things:

1. Universal marketing to fans rather than everyone. Since I'm a fan I didn't notice this, but after reading posts here, it's very clear now. If I wasn't a fan, while the trailer would look interesting, it didn't give enough sense that this was a classic "Saturday afternoon sci-fi, action show". If I wasn't a fan already, I may not have ventured out because of....

2. Cost of movies vs. DVDs. For me, going to a movie is a big deal. Not so much for the price for a ticket (I have a local theater that shows new releases for only $2) but because of other reasons - I have a family, so in most cases I have to take them, which gets expensive because of concessions, or I have to somehow convince my wife that I need to see a movie by myself. So, it's a big production. Add to that, that I am like a lot of people that would rather sit at home with a DVD, for most movies. No crowds, when I want, pause if I need, closed captions if I need. Basically, at my direction. Plus, DVDs show up only 2-3 months after the movie, ususally. So, in the end, unless the movie is guaranteed somehow (family fare animation or sci-fi epic) most likely I'll wait for the DVD.

While I still hold out hope that Serenity will hit its 80mil mark, I'm not confident. But I also am heartened because people here have a good idea - DTD. I do think that Firefly could exist quite well this way. Given the choice, I'd rather see a DTD series than sequels; something like 10 episodes a season. More character development, more stories. Not sure what kind of budget would be given either way, though.

But, this, and other ideas, have been presented before. Hopefully Serenity does well enough to keep Universal interested. There's a lot of fans out there that certainly are.

 

[Brandon Conway]

Box Office Mojo is predicting a 7th place weekend at $4.8 million. :frowning:
I guess there's always the chance that their prediction underestimates the word of mouth factor, but I highly doubt it.

 

[Kevin Grey]

I wonder if Whedon would be involved in a Direct to DVD effort? Since he's trying to be a "film" director now I imagine that he wouldn't consider it a good career move to direct a "straight to video" movie. But he could turn it over to Firefly Co-Executive Producer Tim Minear who Whedon has already approached for a similar Spike TV Movie.

The current economics of DVD would certainly make this an interesting experiment and Firefly/Serenity is once again a good property to experiment on. I truly believe that, all other things being equal, if Firefly had premiered today the economics of TV on DVD and its effect on the ratings of subsequent seasons would have seen Fox give Firefly at least two seasons to catch on.

 

[Andy Sheets]

I've seen this excuse about Serenity's performance pop up on many forums but to me its a non-starter since its equally applicable to all movies released. Yeah its probably a reason that revenues are down across the board but it doesn't make $10 million any better of an opening in Serenity's case.

It's not just that, but I think it becomes a very big factor for these movies like Serenity that have big enough budgets that they need to open well but aren't flashy enough to draw crowds based on sheer spectacle.

I do agree that Universal's marketing didn't help it at all and a supreme marketing effort was what the movie demanded. Just saying "From the creator of Buffy the Vampire Slayer..." probably kept a few people home, because Buffy is still regarded as a laughingstock by a large number of people who never watched it.

 

[Tom Brennan]

Having never seen the show, and not being a fan of Whedon's previous efforts (I hated Buffy)... I went to see Serenity last weekend with some reservations. I had heard the stories of the show being canceled, the fan support, the positive reviews... but was that all from geeky kids on the internet with too much free time, or was there actually something to this?

I ended up loving the movie, right from the first scene. The film never lost my attention. For a newcomer who has never even seen a clip of the show, I was able to grasp the concept, plot, style and characters (despite no real character introduction) pretty easily.

My feelings are that the show/movie does gear towards younger fans...as did Buffy, etc.. but that hardly matters, it is very well made. There were one or two cheesy cliche moments I could have done without (River posing after slaying the Reavers, etc), but all of those I can get past. I thought it was great to look at and I really liked the cast...Especially the captain. I walked out of the theater a fan.

I ended up putting the entire Firefly series in my netflix que as soon as I got home and received my first disc on Tuesday. I have to say... this was a really special show and I'm sorry I missed it when it originally aired. It was before I got a Tivo, so I wasn't watching many TV shows in 2002. I think the pilot episode is one of the best pilots for an scifi action series ever made. It is well written and sets up everything perfectly. Its funny, but I never knew River and Simon were a part of the cast of the show, I thought they were new characters for the film. I was pleasantly surprised to see them listed in the opening credits for the pilot. I love the western aspects in the show, that I didn't notice in the film...and I love the pacing of some of the episodes. The cast and characters are excellent and I have yet to view an episode I didn't love.

I just finished disc two last night and can't wait to dive into the final two discs this weekend. I almost feel special that I have new episodes to watch, but its a shame the show didn't even get a full first season and there are only a handful left for me. I definitely plan on seeing the film again after I finish the series. This time through different eyes...as a fan. It will be like watching a totally different film. I'm gonna try and lend these dvds out to some friends before shipping them back to netflix, maybe I can turn someone else on to it...I'm certainly glad I got turned onto it. I hope it has a good second weekend.

 

[Jay_B!]

why are people saying the movie flopped? This is Firefly, not Star Wars. $10 million is quite good considering that there was only a limited audience of Whedon-fans who were going to see it. $10 million opening weekend for a SW, LOTR and Harry Potter movie is very bad, but for a short-lived TV series from three years ago with only one cast member who is at all familiar to moviegoers as a character actor (Adam Baldwin), very good. It was nowhere near the #2 series when it aired, yet it was the #2 film.

Plus, I know a lot of people who were holding off till the second weekend to see it, so don't count it out totally. I am going to see it next week, I haven't finished the DVD set yet (just got it a few days ago)

 

[Jay_B!]

Only the latter fully applies. There is some of #1 in there, but it's mostly negligible (although I've convinced a lot of people to go with me on my next viewing, some just don't want to see anything from "that idiot who made that crappy Buffy", even after I tell them I've never seen a frame of Buffy and yet love Firefly/Serenity).

actually, that is your loss big time. Buffy and Angel were both great shows (and many critics and fans agree with me), it is the fact that Joss Whedon was the creator of Buffy and Angel that even caused me (and many others) to check out Firefly. Honestly, you're missing out if you like Joss' work and have never seen a frame of those two shows.

 

[Tom Brennan]

I tried to like Buffy, but found it impossible. It's one of the things that made me hesitant to get into Serenity. I also find Buffy's fanbase annoying... too many kids. To me Buffy just reaked of an X-Files rip off (even the formula of mythology episodes and stand alone episodes mixed into a season), except mix X-Files with Dawson's Creek. I also find Gellar to be very unlikeable on screen, so that didn't help either. To each their own.

 

[Jay_B!]

I tried to like Buffy, but found it impossible. It's one of the things that made me hesitant to get into Serenity. I also find Buffy's fanbase annoying... too many kids. To me Buffy just reaked of an X-Files rip off (even the formula of mythology episodes and stand alone episodes mixed into a season), except mix X-Files with Dawson's Creek. I also find Gellar to be very unlikeable on screen, so that didn't help either. To each their own.

X-Files? I can see Supernatural being an X-Files ripoff but not Buffy. I suppose the Riley/Initiative episodes were but that was about it.

 

[Ken Chan]

$10 million is quite good considering that there was only a limited audience of Whedon-fans who were going to see it.

Once again, would you actually prefer that only those in the Cult-O-Joss see this movie? Some badge of bitter pride?
What if there's a new science fiction movie, with no A-list stars. No built-in audience, so that would mean that if it made zero dollars on opening weekend, that would be acceptable?
There's no point in marketing to Firefly fans -- they were going to see it anyway. The idea would be to get other people to see it. Unfortunately, many factors, like a long history of hyping crap and shorter DVD windows makes this more and more difficult.
To compare, if you don't consider Keanu Reeves an A-lister (back then) The Matrix opened with about $28M (on about 30% more screens). Slightly less than half its budget.
Serenity made about one-fourth its budget. It hasn't flopped yet, but it could.

 

[Jay_B!]

To compare, if you don't consider Keanu Reeves an A-lister (back then) The Matrix opened with about $28M (on about 30% more screens). Slightly less than half its budget.

Serenity made about one-fourth its budget. It hasn't flopped yet, but it could.

Titanic made about 1/8th it'd budget opening week, it ended up making three times it's cost. People forget that Joss fans are a loyal batch who will go back to see Serenity a number of times, and tell all their friends to go see it. Serenity could likely make back it's cost, the second weekend is crucial to see if this will be a nice sleeper hit like The 40 Year Old Virgin or if it's going to plunge and be a major bomb.