NHL 2016 - 2017 Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)

[DavidJ]

I agree with your analysis, Scott. Both trades are odd.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

It looks like the trade deadline deals are starting early.

1. Washington made themselves a favorite in the East by acquiring Shattenkirk for a 2017 first round pick, a conditional 2nd round pick, and a couple of B prospects. This summer will be a weak draft, so that late 1st round pick is not as good as it sounds. Shattenkirk's value was down, since there is a strong belief he will sign with the Rangers this summer, making this a true rental for a Cup run.
2. Toronto acquires Brian Boyle for a 2017 2nd round pick and a marginal NHL player. The Leafs look to be trying hard to make the playoffs to give their young players some post season experience a little ahead of schedule. Boyle's a free agent this summer, and Tampa's in sell mode, so getting a 2nd round pick for a 3rd/4th line center isn't a bad deal for them.
3. Ottawa makes a questionable deal, getting Alex Burrows for a promising defensive prospect and then extending the 36 year old Burrows for 2 more years. I'm not sure what the Senators were thinking, but Vancouver made out like a bandit on this one.

It will be interesting to see what happens today and tomorrow. My Habs are in a tough position -- while they are a playoff team, they need more than what I think they can get at the deadline to be a true contender. They need a couple more decent offensive threats, but I do not think Bergevin will give up any of their top prospects for a rental -- and I agree with that.

I'll also be watching what Ken Holland does in Detroit. The Wings should be in complete sell mode -- any player over 30 should be available. However, I do not think Holland is capable of doing this. He's been on record as saying they will probably keep Mike Green, who is the veteran that would yield the biggest return for Detroit, so should definitely be traded. The team really needs to go through a complete tear down and rebuild, and I do not think Holland's the person for that job. He's never been able to adjust to the salary cap era.

 

[DavidJ]

The Wings should be in complete sell mode

This hurts my heart...

 

[Scott Merryfield]

This hurts my heart...

The Wings had a great run, so I wouldn't be too sad. The team has really slid under Holland since the salary cap was instituted, though. He never adjusted to the new system, IMO.

The Habs made three minor deals so far:

1. Jordie Benn from Dallas for Greg Pateryn and a 4th round pick. Pateryn wanted out of Montreal, and Benn is a small upgrade as a 3rd pairing defenseman over Pateryn
2. Steve Ott from Detroit for a 6th round pick. I'm not thrilled with this one, but the Habs didn't give up anything to get some center depth, so it doesn't hurt them. Ott will probably get a chance as 4th line center, with Tory Mitchell moving to the wing, Brian Flynn to the bench and rookie Mike McCarron back to the AHL.
3. Brandon Davidson from Edmonton for David Desharnais. This one shocked me. I didn't think Bergevin would be able to get a bag of used pucks for Desharnais, let alone a viable 3rd pairing defenseman. I have no idea why the Oilers make this trade -- DD is awful.

Detroit was also able to send Brendan Smith to the Rangers for 2nd and 3rd round picks. It's a start, Wings fans.

With Montreal having acquired defensemen Davidson and Benn (plus Nesterov a few weeks ago), I wouldn't be surprised if either Alexi Emelin or Nathan Beaulieu are moved today as part of a package if the price is right. The Habs desperately need some additional scoring threats for their second line.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

Trade deadline day ended up being pretty anticlimactic, as usual. In addition to the deals I mentioned in my last post, Montreal added forwards Dwight King, Steve Ott and Andreas Martinsen for pocket change. All three are bottom 6 depth, with only King looking to be someone who will play regularly. Jordie Benn as looked good in the two games he's played so far as a 3rd pairing defenseman -- he looks to be an improvement over Pateryn and Nesterov in that spot.

The Wings didn't do the complete fire sale they really needed, but did get rid of Ott (for a 6th round pick) and Vanek (for a 3rd round pick and a scrub player). Wings fans on the HFBoard forum had to be disappointed, as they were convinced Vanek would get them at minimum a 2nd round pick. I was laughed at when I said I wouldn't give up more than a 3rd rounder for him, which is exactly what he went for. I witnessed his disappearing act first-hand during his half season in Montreal, and I'm sure teams were turned off by that and his subsequent poor play in Minnesota.

The Habs are playing better under Julien, and are now 5-2 since he took over. They are still struggling to score goals, but they are playing with much more structure. The puck possession is much better, and the defense has tightened up. Carey Price looks like his old self, too. Last night they finally did get some secondary scoring from Gallagher and Byron -- who scored the game winner with 9 seconds left on a great breakaway goal. During the month of February, the only forwards to score goals for the Canadiens were Pacioretty, Radulov, Galchenyuk and Shaw.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

The regular season is winding down. The Habs clinched first in the misnamed Atlantic division last night and will face the Rangers in the first round -- NY is locked into the 1st wildcard spot. Montreal is peaking at the right time, hopefully, and they usually play well against the Rangers (as long as Chris Kreider doesn't knock out their All World goaltender again).

The biggest playoff race remaining is the remainder of the misnamed Atlantic Division, with Toronto, Boston, Ottawa and Tampa fighting for the remaining two division playoff spots plus the 2nd wildcard. I think the Leafs and Bruins will both get in. Tampa is playing a lot better than Ottawa right now, but the Lightning had a long way to come back to get into the race, so it may be too little, too late for them. We will see if the fading Sens can hold on. I would bet that Washington would much rather play struggling Ottawa instead of red hot Tampa in the first round.

 

[Aaron Silverman]

I've gotta look up how the seeding works. It's not simply 1-8 by record, is it? Is it 1-6 by record and then the wild cards by record?

I would like to smack Marchand upside the head. Hopefully he won't get suspended into the postseason.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

I've gotta look up how the seeding works. It's not simply 1-8 by record, is it? Is it 1-6 by record and then the wild cards by record?

I would like to smack Marchand upside the head. Hopefully he won't get suspended into the postseason.

The two wildcard teams are "assigned" to a division as the 4th seed in that division. The #1 wildcard team goes to the division with the division winner having the worst record, and the #2 wildcard goes to the division with the division winner with the better record.

So, in the East, the Rangers (as the #1 wildcard) move to the misnamed Atlantic Division to play Montreal, who has a worse record than the Metropolitan Division winner. The Habs get home ice as the division winner, regardless of whether the Rangers end up with more points. The #2 wildcard (probably one of Ottawa/Toronto/Boston) will play Washington (assuming the Caps hold onto their division lead). The 2nd and 3rd place teams in each division play each other in the first round -- in the Metro it looks like Pittsburgh versus Columbus. The Atlantic #2 vs. #3 will be two of Toronto/Boston/Ottawa (assuming Tampa doesn't catch them).

The 2nd round will be the Montreal - Rangers winner versus the winner of the misnamed Atlantic #2 vs #3. If the Rangers beat the Habs, the #2 vs #3 winner will get home ice versus New York. If the Habs win, they get home ice in the 2nd round.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

It looks like Marchand lucked out, Aaron. He was just suspended for the final two games of the regular season. It effectively just gives him a couple of days rest before the postseason.

 

[Aaron Silverman]

Speaking of the Bruins lucking out, how about that Toronto choke job?

On the other hand, Krug and Carlo are both out. Ugh. In response, they're burning a year of McAvoy's entry-level deal so he can play in however many series the B's can manage this postseason. Could be annoying in three years. . .

 

[Scott Merryfield]

The playoffs start tonight. Here are my picks for the first round :

Montreal
Boston
Washington
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Anaheim
St. Louis
San Jose

 

[Aaron Silverman]

Great comeback by the Bruins last night. When Colin Miller went down, they looked completely discombobulated for the rest of the second period, but they really turned it around in the third. Cassidy is making a very strong case to have the "interim" removed from "interim coach."

Good showing by Li'l Charlie McAvoy, too. Hopefully Miller isn't out for any extended period of time.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

Cassidy is making a very strong case to have the "interim" removed from "interim coach."

I think they should hire Therrien, since the Bruins seem to like ex-Habs coaches.

We've been out of town for the past 1.5 weeks, so I have not been posting much. I was forced to watch a couple of the Habs games on my iPad, since the cable system at our South Carolina condo doesn't carry NBC Sports or the NHL Network.

Montreal was a little over 17 seconds away from being down 2-0 in their series versus the Rangers. Fortunately, Plekanec came through with the late tying goal and Radulov scored late in the first OT to tie the series. Last night, the Canadiens dominated the game from start to finish. Without Lundqvist standing on his head early on, this game could have been 8-0 instead of a 3-1 final. The Rangers look dead at Madison Square Garden -- they have the worst home record of all the playoff teams, and have now lost six consecutive home playoff games. Hopefully the Habs can keep the momentum in Game 4 at MSG.

Radulov has been a great signing by Bergevin. He has tremendous puck skills, plays with great emotion, and is very difficult to knock off the puck. Check out this goal he scored last night -- it really demonstrates those abilities.

Hopefully they can resign him again this summer.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

The outlook is dire for the Habs, who are now down 3-2 in the series. After playing great for the first 35 minutes of the game last night, they reverted to the team that had been coached by Michel Therrien and played like dog crap for the remainder of regulation and OT. The Rangers skated circles around them, the defense was continually out of position and regressed to the Therrien tactics of blindly throwing the puck out of the defensive zone, and the offense once again disappeared.

I think you can stick a fork in the Canadiens -- they are done.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

Last weekend had some bad and some good for this hockey fan.

The Bad (and maybe The Ugly, too ) :

The Canadiens were eliminated by the Rangers, losing the final three games after taking a 2-1 lead in the series. Montreal will need to make a few more significant changes this offseason, as their offense is pathetic at times. Defenseman Nathan Beaulieu will definitely be gone, and I wouldn't be surprised if Alex Galchenyuk is traded, as well.

The Good:

Team USA won the gold medal in the IIHF U18 World Championship, which was held in Slovakia. My wife and I have season tickets to the US National Team Development Program, which is located in our hometown. So, we have watched these kids play for the NTDP U17 and U18 teams for the past two seasons. It was very cool to watch them win the gold medal -- the NHL Network carried the semi-final and gold medal games live over the weekend. Last year's team had to settle for a bronze medal when the tournament was held in Grand Forks, North Dakota.

This year's U18 team did not have the high-end talent of teams from the last three years, which included such players as Auston Matthews, Matt Tkachuk, Dylan Larkin, or Clayton Keller (7th overall pick by Phoenix last year). The only player on this year's team that my be a future 1st round NHL draft pick is Brady Tkachuk, who is not eligible until the 2018 draft due to having a late birthday. However, the team worked hard, and you could finally see the team come together late this season -- by comparison, last year's team looked almost unbeatable from the start of the season.

USA Hockey is hoping to host this U18 World Championship tournament at their facility in our hometown eventually, which would be really great to see. They did host the IIHF Women's World Championship this spring. The arena is called USA Hockey Arena, and was formerly known as Compuware Arena when the Plymouth Whalers of the Ontario Hockey League played there for 20 years.

 

[Aaron Silverman]

The positive vibes in the Boston media and fan base following the Bruins' first-round exit have been nothing short of astonishing. I guess it's such a step in the right direction after the last three years or so that people are feeling good. The Black 'n' Gold have a number of young stars in the making, and between all the injuries and the horrifyingly poor officiating, the general mood is "hey, all things being equal, the B's would've easily won that series."

 

[Scott Merryfield]

The positive vibes in the Boston media and fan base following the Bruins' first-round exit have been nothing short of astonishing. I guess it's such a step in the right direction after the last three years or so that people are feeling good. The Black 'n' Gold have a number of young stars in the making, and between all the injuries and the horrifyingly poor officiating, the general mood is "hey, all things being equal, the B's would've easily won that series."

Isn't it amazing how two different fan bases can react to a first round playoff exit? In Montreal, it's nothing but disappointment and calls for changes. Meanwhile, in Boston there is optimism.

One final thing to add regarding Team USA's gold medal win. On Monday evening, USA Hockey held an impromptu reception for the team at USA Hockey Arena when the players arrived there from the airport. We stopped by and watched the players, each wearing his gold medal, enter the restaurant attached to the complex to the cheers of family, friends, billets and season ticket holders. There were lots of smiles, despite the players being tired from the long flight back from Slovakia.

 

[Aaron Silverman]

More good news from Beantown: Bruce "Butch" Cassidy lost the "interim" tag from his title.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

Once again Washington has made a quick exit from the playoffs despite having a great regular season. In the 12 years Ovechkin has played for the Capitals, they have failed to make it past the 2nd round -- despite having numerous dominant regular seasons.

At this point, I'm not sure what Washington's next move will be. They have already been through numerous coaches (Boudreau, Oates, Hunter, Trotz) and have added quality players to the lineup (Oshie, Justin Williams, Shattenkirk), yet they still fail miserably in the post season. I cannot see them trading Ovechkin, as they will have a difficult time finding a trade partner to give them the value they require -- his unwillingness to play defense, $9.5M contract for four more years, and no trade clause make him almost impossible to deal.

 

[Scott Merryfield]

Isn't it an amazing coincidence that 38 year old Marian Hossa, who's been playing hockey his entire life, comes down with an "allergy to his hockey equipment" at the exact same time his heavily front-loaded contract drops to $1M per year, allowing the salary cap challenged Blackhawks to easily hide him on long term injured reserve for the remaining four years of his contract?

The Habs came out of the expansion draft in better shape than most teams. They took advantage of Tampa's salary cap and expansion draft exposure issues by trading their top defenseman prospect Mikail Sergachev for 22 year old stud forward Jonathan Drouin. While losing Sergachev was not optimal, they did get a great return value for him. Drouin should help the Canadiens immensely in the area they've had the most issues -- scoring goals.

Montreal also lost defenseman Alexi Emelin in the expansion draft. His $4M salary will free up cap space for other moves, and Montreal did not lose prospect Charles Hudon.