NBA 2008-09 Regular Season Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)

[Ockeghem]

Matt,

Yeah, I remember that game where Jordan scored all of those points. It may have been a double-overtime game, but I'm not certain (without looking it up). One thing is pretty certain, however. Before Pippin (and eventually Rodman) got into the act, the Bulls could not defeat the Celtics handily in the playoffs.

 

[Ockeghem]

Congratulations to fans of the Los Angeles Lakers and the Orlando Magic. I hope the NBA Finals is a memorable one.

Okay, my second scenario for the Cleveland - Orlando played out exactly as I thought it might game-for-game (as far as who would win each of the first six games). The first two games were key, and IMO set the tone for the entire series.

That being said, here is what I think is going to occur in the Finals. There is no way that the Lakers will win the first two games of the series. With a split, Orlando goes home for three games. More often than not, these three games are not won by the same team. I see two possibilities here. Either 1) Orlando will win two of three, and win the series in six games (winning game six in Los Angeles); or 2) Orlando will win all three games at home. The latter is unlikely, but I think it more likely than having the Magic win the first two games in Los Angeles and then winning two of three at home. So I think the Magic will win this series in either six or (less probably) five games, after having obtained a split in Los Angeles.

Key stat: The Magic are 2-0 against Los Angeles this year. The Lakers were 2-0 against Cleveland. I am fully convinced that the Magic have a better chance of defeating the Lakers than the Cavaliers would have had had they advanced. I suppose it's a moot point now, but I believe the Cavaliers would not have stood a chance against the Lakers had they played one another in the Finals.

{It would have been interesting to hear whom the Lakers would have preferred to have played -- Cleveland or Orlando.}

Go Magic!

 

[Carlo_M]

I know Bynum at least in the local media said he hoped to get Orlando to "pay them back."

The matter of who would the Lakers really have wanted to play (i.e. who would they have matched up best against) is more complex than 2-0 vs. Cleveland against 0-2 vs. Orlando.

When they lost to Orlando, Jameer Nelson was huge in both games, and is in street clothes now. I know Alston has done a solid job in his place, but when one very key piece of the victories is no longer a factor, you never know how that would factor in.

Also, LA has home court advantage vs. Orlando, and would not have had it against Cleveland.

By the same token, Cleveland was fully exposed as a one man team (we've known all along, but this series w/ Orlando really cemented it). So if there is one thing Phil Jackson can do well, it's game plan. If his game plan only included stopping [or limiting] essentially one guy, I think he'd have been able to do it. Orlando has multiple weapons.

So overall, it can be argued that despite losing home court advantage the Lakers would have had a larger advantage over Cleveland than Orlando.

My very early "keys" to the series will be how the Laker bigs handle Howard. If Bynum can at least keep Howard from going buck-wild for a few games, I like the Lakers' other positions [and depth] vs. the Magic's. I see the 5 as the only position where the Magic has a clear edge, the other 3 can be argued, but I'm pretty sure no one is going to argue the Laker's huge edge at the 2 guard and the 4...

 

[Ockeghem]

I agree wholeheartedly. The Lakers did not win a game in Boston last year, either during the regular season or the playoffs. But having defeated the Cavaliers both times during the regular season, I believe that L.A. would have taken the first or second game in Cleveland in the playoffs.

This could be a very interesting series. The Magic will have their hands full with the Lakers. But, as the number four seed (overall), they have defeated the number one seed (Cleveland) and the number three seed (Boston). In Boston and Cleveland (with apologies to the Sixers fans), they've defeated teams with a combined total of 128 victories excluding the playoffs. All that is left for them to do is to defeat the number two seed (Los Angeles). I think it can be done. We'll see.

 

[mattCR]

I see that everyone at ESPN is picking LA. I think they are wrong. I'm thinking Orlando in 5.

 

[Patrick Sun]

Orlando in 6.

 

[Mark Leiter]

It was great to finally see the Orlando Magic redeem them selves last night after so many years of bad management and bad luck. This is coming from someone who has been there since the beginning in 1989. There have bee so many time I felt like such a sucker for never giving up on them.

Thru the early success of wining back to back lottery picks, then making the finals in '95. I remember watching those 4 missed free-throws by Nick Anderson, setting the stage for the sweep by Houston. One year later Shaq would leave for LA and go on to win 3 titles there. If Anderson makes even 1 of those free throws they win game 1 and the magic at least make a series out of the '95 finals. Would that have influenced Shaq to resign the next year? I can't tell you how many Magic fans have asked that question over the years.

Then they gutted the team so that they had a shot at signing 2 big time free agents. I still remember the day in 2000 when Tim Duncan and Grant Hill got off the plane together as free agents. It seemed like the franchise would be finally on the rise, but so the story goes, Duncan decided to stay in San Antonio only because of a personal appeal by David Robinson.

But it seemed at the time to be not that bad of loss. Hill signed anyway and we discovered a real up and coming talent in Tracy MacGrady. Of course no one bothered to ask whether the ankle injury Hill suffered in the playoffs that year was serious or not. And of course no one in management bothered to take out an insurance policy against it. They signed him on faith and condemned the magic to 7 years of empty promises and yearly ankle surgeries.

Who could forget the hiring of a hockey general manager to run a basketball team. Why? Who knows, I guess they thought hell would freeze over before Orlando would have a shot at a title again.

We groomed Doc Rivers so they he could go on to Boston and win a title there.

Then in '06 with Grant Hill FINALLY healthy he bolts for Phoenix and T-Mac basically demands a trade (and I don't blame him). We get the awesome talent of Steve Francis in return (read HEAVY sarcasm in that statement). Now we were stuck with another dead weight player with a max contract. By that time I was convinced I (and every Magic fan) was in basketball purgatory.

There was the 19 game losing streak and a 21 win season.

THEN, then came that magically moment. I don't mean winning the lottery or the day we drafted Dwight. This is different and to me was the beginning of the turn around. Every 22nd of February I get down on my knees and give thanks to the basketball gods for our savior Isaiah Thomas. If I had Thomas' address I would send him a Christmas card every year for the rest of my life. He was the one who agreed to the trade of Steve Francis for Travor Ariza and Penny's expiring contract. That to me was the beginning of the turn around.

Now, next week when we play the Lakers? I don't even care if we win or not. Orlando is back. Our three all-stars, Howard, Nelson and Lewis are all signed for long term deals. While it is true that Turkalo is a free agent next year and we most likely will lose him because we wont have the money to match the offers he gets, we do have a great rookie in Courtney Lee. Maybe we can do a sign and trade for a good power forward. That would let Lewis move to his natural position at small forward, then with Lee at the 2 and Nelson at point, our team would be set. Orlando is going to be a great team that challenges for the championship every year for the next 5 or 6 years

It is a great time to be an Orlando Magic fan.

 

[nolesrule]

Are you trying to make me cry? Unfortunately the most memorable moment in Orlando Magic history.

 

[Mark Leiter]

That's the beauty of what is happening now. None of that matters anymore. The franchise has been re-born. All that stuff that happened before is in the past. This team isn't even our future anymore. This team is our now. I'm not saying we will beat the Lakers next month. But I would bet you anything that Howard with basically this team will win the title if not this year then the next or year after.

I believe anyone that watched Orlando during this years playoffs witnessed the transformation of Dwight Howard from a dominant center to one of the most dominant players in this league. During the second half of the game last night Orlando only ran one play. Howard in the post. Cleveland just had no answer for it. They put Ilgauskas on him and Howard ran around him for dunks. They put Varejao on him and Howard backed him down for dunks. They fouled him and Howard hit 75% of his free throws. The double and triple teamed him and he passed out to his teammates for wide open 3s. It really was amazing to watch.

I firmly believe that before he is done Howard will lead his team (hopefully Orlando) to at least 3 titles and will win another one later in his career as a solid back-up. I just don't think they will win against the Lakers this year. I could be wrong but I always felt that champions have to go thru some heartbreak before they win the title. The Lakers got thier hearts broken last year (not Kobe but everyone else on that team) I just think that this year is Orlando's turns. I think they will fight hard but will end up losing, probably in 6. Just my gut feeling.

 

[Ockeghem]

^^^

Mark,

Hmmm. I've been thinking that Orlando had their hearts broken when they were swept by the Rockets in the finals years ago. I think it's their turn this year.

Matt,

You could very well end up being right. I'm struggling a bit with this (five or six games).

 

[Mark Leiter]

Yeah that's true but that was a different era and different players. Heck Howard was only 9 when that happened. I hope you guy are right though. Especially given that I've already bought my plane ticket and my cousin is working on the tickets. It would be great to go there and witness a win.

 

[Mark Leiter]

Reports started coming out of Orlando during the weekend that Jameer Nelson might be ready to play in the finals.

 

[Ockeghem]

I don't know what is more surprising to me. The fact that nine out of ten ESPN writers are picking the Lakers to win the series, or the fact that Tim Legler is one of the nine....

Legler was the only writer over there in his right mind last year [ ], picking Boston (although I believe he called them in seven).

Hmmm.

 

[John Gido]

I tend to agree here.

The Lakers have struggled throughout the play-offs with most of their series going 6 or 7 games. Plus the fact that Orlando beat the Lakers in both of their regular season meetings..

 

[Ockeghem]

It is going to take a monumental effort for the Lakers to defeat Orlando, especially the way the Magic are playing right now. Goodness, they really do live and die by the three-pointer. Thus far, they have been next to devastating with it. At least four shooters are a legimitate threat from out there.

I do see the Lakers winning this series if either of the following happens:

1) An injury to a major Orlando player;

or

2) The Magic shoot around 20% from the three-point arc. They could go cold, as they are streaky. But I think that when the series is over, they will have hovered around 44% from the arc. That's astonishing, actually.

 

[Aaron Silverman]

2009 was the first time the Bulls ever won even a single playoff *game* against the Celtics. They were 0-10 all-time against the C's in the playoffs before this year. I was amazed when I saw that! Even though I followed the Celtics throughout MJ's career, I would never have guessed that he'd never beaten them in a postseason game.

 

[Andy Sheets]

The Lakers are a solid perimeter defense team, so that could have an effect.

I'd really like to see Rashard Lewis win a ring. I still remember the footage of him crying his eyes out on draft day because he's from Houston and the Rockets had promised him they'd use one of their three first round draft picks on him that year. Instead they chose Michael Dickerson (not especially remembered now but a good player that was prematurely retired due to injuries), Bryce Drew (never did a damn thing), and Mirsad Turksan (supposedly a good player but he's never set foot in the NBA). Even though he's known as a soft player, I sometimes wonder if Lewis plays with an extra chip on his shoulder because of that snub.

 

[Ockeghem]

Aaron,

You're right. I knew that, but had forgotten it. I only learned about it this year when the Celtics defeated the Bulls in the playoffs. (I will admit, I wrote 'handily' because I couldnt' recall. Just covering my bases, in other words.)

 

[Ockeghem]

True enough. They aren't always committed on the defensive side of things, but when they are, good things to seem to happen for them.

 

[Carlo_M]

There's all this talk of "when the Lakers put it all together" they are dangerous. But the reality is (and remember I'm a Laker fan) they've only done so in very few games this post season. So suddenly, because of one good game at the end of the Nuggets series, has the "light finally come on" for them? Does one game make a trend? Because they blew out other teams in the playoffs (like Houston) only to have the favor returned the next game.

I do agree with Barkley in that the Lakers, when they're playing in top form, are the best team in the NBA (assuming all teams are playing in top form). But the reality is, they have rarely ever done so, at least in the post-season. The Magic have played much closer to their top potential than the Lakers have, on a more consistent basis, which is why I'm worried about these finals.