How much do you think 16:9 TVs will drop in price in the next 1-2 years? (1 Viewer)

[Kami]

I am thinking that I want to start saving up and buy myself a 16:9 HDTV (at least 45-50") when I graduate college as sort of a present to myself. I suffer with a 27" with s-video input :frowning:
My question is, how much will they drop in price in say 12-18 months? I was at Future Shop yesterday, and I saw some TVs that looked pretty nice in the $2500-$3200 range (Canadian dollars)...so figure around $1800-$2500 in the US.
Would it be safe to say that comparable sets would be down to the $1500-$2000 (Canadian) range in that amount of time? Or even lower maybe?
Thanks in advance. My TV is embarassing but I can cope for another 1-2 years if it means I can get something really nice.
edit: here's an example at one set I was looking at: Toshiba 57H81 and it was at $3200 CDN.
1. Is this a good set
2. How much would it drop?
(well after doing some searches I found out it's discontinuined and will be replaced by the superior 57H82, but I'm sure it'll be priced the same)

 

[yhaq]

Well, I doubt they will drop beyond a certain threshold level.
Manufacturers/dealers will always want to sell units at a particular price point that will make business sense. For instance, you obviously cant assume that since prices dropped (hypothetically speaking) 300 dollars this year, that they will continue to drop 300 dollars every year. Obviously we will never get to a free TV in 5 years.
What will happen is this: prices will stabilize at around, say, 1500 dollars. TV's will simply have more "features". Think of the laptop/desktop situation. Everytime I look at the market, I'm looking at prices around 1500 to 1800 for a decent laptop. I think the same applies to TV's. Prices will bottom out, and I think we are close to bottoming out. I seriously doubt we will get to see a non-magnavox, zenith, rca, or GE RPTV priced below 1000 anytime soon.
So when you graduate college, u'll just have more features. You'll drop the same number of nickels and dimes in the bucket as the rest of us. :frowning:
Good luck in college!

 

[Jimmy_F]

Kami,

Prices will definitely drop after 2004 with United States FCC requiring all TV manufacturers to include a HD tuner in all TV's 36"+. I think the TV manufacturers will begin to ramp up the production capacity for these tuners, and prices will drop. How much? Probably significant. Now the deadline has been set, you will begin to see a major shift into HDTV from all manufacturers...and thus more competition and lower prices.

 

[Brent Hutto]

I don't know about 12-18 months, but within three years or so I would expect two things to happen.

First, I think that the price premium for the 16:9 format over a similar-sized 4:3 will get much smaller -- especially for RPTV's. If you were to manufacture an equal volume of 47" widescreen and 51" 4:3 RPTV's with the same features, if anything the widescreen would be a tiny bit cheaper to produce since the cabinet isn't as tall.

The second thing is that eventually (maybe within 3 years) HDTV tuners will start being included in moderate and high-end HDTV sets.

So if you look at the price of a Sony 51" 4:3 HD-ready HDTV today, you might expect a very similar price for a Sony 47" 16:9 HDTV (with tuner) in two or three years. I don't have a good idea, though, if there will be a 47" widescreen with fewer features available for several hundered dollars less in that same time frame.

 

[Kami]

Thanks guys. Maybe I had my hopes a bit too high. I am thinking maybe late 2003/early 2004 is when I'll buy...guess I can only cross my fingers.

 

[Doug_B]

I think the biggest break in prices in the stated time frame will still be for models that are discontinued / in the process of being replaced with newer models.

Jimmy said:

Prices will definitely drop after 2004 with United States FCC requiring all TV manufacturers to include a HD tuner in all TV's 36"+. I think the TV manufacturers will begin to ramp up the production capacity for these tuners, and prices will drop.

Sorry, but you'll have to connect the dots for me on this one. I don't see how this mandate is going to lower prices; the manufacturers would have an actual increase in cost to add tuners, at least near term. It's up to the market's demand as to whether enough will sell to potentially send prices down again (one would think this would be the case assuming we continue to grow in terms of HDTV broadcasting). As a matter of fact, per my initial comments, I would suspect that the last of the non-integrated-tuner RPTVs would be a steal as all the new ones with tuners hit the streets.

Doug

 

[Josh Lowe]

Considering that these days you get can a brand new 47" 16:9 RPTV for $1500.. How much cheaper -can- they get?

 

[Jan Strnad]

Kami,
You're working within a very interesting time frame.
HDTVs in this size range (36" and over) will have to include HD, off-the-air tuners beginning in 2004. Okay, maybe 65% of the people currently receive their TV signal from cable or satellite, and they don't need or want an off-the-air tuner, but they'll be buying one anyway.
Figure another $200-400 for the tuner that you may not want or need, starting in 2004. By 2007, all TVs will need them, according to law. So somewhere in the 2004-2007 time frame we'll begin to see a reduction in cost for the tuners due to volume, but it's still an added cost any way you look at it.
So, here's Kami graduating in 2004, ready to buy a TV. You'll find (depending on the exact timing) the old no-tuner sets being closed out and discounted, but the new sets being introduced at higher prices (because of the mandated tuner), so the discount on the old sets won't be as dramatic as they might otherwise be.
Or (scenario #2) the old no-tuner TVs will be seen as dinosaurs...hey, there's no tuner!...and they'll be closed out at rock-bottom prices.
However, by now the word should be filtering down to J6P that there's a new TV standard coming in just a couple of years that'll make 4:3 sets...well, not "obsolete" but at least "quaint." So dealers will be dumping 4:3 RPTVs like crazy and you'll be able to find one easily in the under-$1000 range. If you want a "quaint" RPTV.
This all pure speculation, of course!
Good luck!
Jan

 

[Jeff Kleist]

You can get a 40H80 right now for $1200 US
Buy discontinued models online and you should be able to hit your price goal

 

[Kami]

Or (scenario #2) the old no-tuner TVs will be seen as dinosaurs...hey, there's no tuner!...and they'll be closed out at rock-bottom prices.

I guess I could hope for this 90% of my use is for DVD anyway. I rarely watch TV at all.