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Mark Booth

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The members in charge of our Miata club Holiday party asked the resort to set up a few 2-person tables off to the side from the rest of the group. That setting allowed my wife and I to feel comfortable enough to remove our masks just long enough to eat. Nobody else was closer than about 15 feet when we were eating.

Yes, I realize it is entirely possible that the virus could travel that 15 feet. But it still feels safer than sitting right next to someone else in groups of 8 per round table. I subsequently learned that there was one unvaccinated couple that planned to attend and they were politely asked to skip this event.

It was also a rather big surprise that party organizers were asking members if they were fully vaccinated or not. To my knowledge, everyone that attended was fully vaccinated.

It was a fun evening. We will be faced with the decision about doing something similar in one week for my Magic club's holiday party. However, I feel the Magic club's venue is a bit safer, with a much taller ceiling and multiple doors to open for fresh air circulation.

Mark
 

Kevin Hewell

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It was a fun evening. We will be faced with the decision about doing something similar in one week for my Magic club's holiday party. However, I feel the Magic club's venue is a bit safer, with a much taller ceiling and multiple doors to open for fresh air circulation.

Are you Phil Dunphy? ;)

I'm glad you had a good time.
 

Mark Booth

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Our niece’s symptoms are getting a little worse. She had severe headache and nausea (with vomiting) today, just like her youngest son a week ago. Best guess is the son brought it home from school.

Mark
 

David Norman

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And just b/c I was bored this afternoon I dug through some numbers available via various sources.
June 1, 2021 -- seemed a good enough date. I looked at 3/31 and 8/31 and the overall effect was pretty much the same.
6+ months after the vaccines were approved at least in the highest risk groups seemed a good starting point -- the reported EU vaccine
rates vary from 70% (UK) up to 89% (Port)

I never could find the answer when Full Vacc rates were of eligible pop or all population
US and 8 largest W European/UK countries seems to be a pretty comparable general population demographically

Russia I threw in just b/c I thought it was interesting though their numbers are much more unreliable, but pundits suspect a lot has to do with the extreme
official COVID denial in 2020 which shifted 180 degrees sometime mid way through 2021.


Cases through 5/31/2021 (1000)Deaths through 5/31/2021 (1000)Pop (1000)Fatality Rate (%)
US341006123350001.79
W. Europe256005944000002.32
Russia51001231500002.41
Cases 6/1/21 - 12/1/2021Deaths 6/1/2021 - 12/1/2021Full Vaccination of Pop
US162002001.2360%
W. Europe1575065.10.4174%
Russia48001623.3840%



UK case and death rates are by far the most skewed. A lot of that is due to them getting hammered in the first few months when testing was almost nonexistent so the case fatality rates look particularly awful, but despite the rather large surge in cases over the last 3-4 months, the death rates haven't really surged like would have been expected. My assumption has to be the Vaccine is doing what it's supposed to do decreases severe disease/fatal outcomes, It could be UK is screening a lot more people picking up a lot more asymp infections to skew the denominator. Else you have to believe the UK health system is drastically outperforming both the EU and US Healthcare OR there is something fundamentally different with the infections or the general population in the UK. It is somewhat interesting to see the Fatality % is significantly lower in the UK than Ger/France/etc where their rate is closer to 0.5% overall.

Splitting them up into 3 phases shows some massive disparities though much of the early EU data is similarly skewed in Italy, France, and Belgium. Germany, Spain, Portugal Netherlands had some early Death rates in the 4-8% range
Cases (1000)Deaths (1000)%
UK
pre 9/1/202033641.612.4
9/1/2020 - 5/31/2021448086.21.92
post 6/1/20216100180.3


The US data shows Death Rates of 3.0%/1.5%/1.25% across the same 3 time periods
Germany 3.7% - 2.2 % - 0.5% (though much lower per capita cases or deaths than either UK or esp US)
 
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Mark Booth

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This might explain why our COVID positive family members are primarily having cold-like symptoms.


Mark
 

Mark Booth

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It's been confirmed that the Omicron variant is being transmitted locally here in San Diego County. The 2nd confirmed patient has no history of recent travel. He is fully vaccinated and received his booster dose at least 2 weeks before the infection. His symptoms were very mild and he's already improving.

Mark
 

David Norman

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This might explain why our COVID positive family members are primarily having cold-like symptoms.


Mark

Or else that's a common symptom with all Covid variants

"The most common symptoms of the delta variant include sore throat, runny nose, headache, and fever" and of course you don't have to have all of them together
 

David Norman

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A bit of a followup on my last long post and sort of where I've hoped (am still hoping) some places may be heading with the upcoming winter/holiday Count Spike. I think this is what the NFL and professional Sports in general might wish to look at in revamping their protocols and eventually a wider spread adoption of change in policies in NonSports areas.

As seen in much of Europe, but not Russia case counts don't seem to mean what they did last winter. Even the Northern Hemisphere Summer Delta surge seemed completely different than the Nov 20- March 21 timeframe. I hadn't heard the word "Uncoupled" related to Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths though I think that may be a perfect word for it.

Time to Re-Consider Response to Case Counts.


I wish I could extract a couple charts to show the most relevant graphs, but I'll do it with links. The key things I think to look at is the Bar-Graph of Daily (or 7 day rolling ave) Cases overlaid with similar graph of Deaths. The UK Graphs appear the most dramatic, the Russian graphs a bit scary given the US Vaccine rates esp in some regions. UK, Spain, France and much of Western Europe seem to be showing a similar de-coupling of the worst outcome graph with the overall case load (I wish I had Hospitalization Curves as well).

Both have had an extremely long 'Spike' in cases with drastically different outcomes. I guess the next 4-6 weeks in the UK and Europe may be critical to see if this holds as what looks like the biggest spike yet coming. UK appears is hitting 80-90K cases/day and rapidly increasing The South Africa graphs are scary looking esp since we aren't far enough into the new spike to see what's going to happen with the second curve, though preliminary reports aren't showing a huge increase in hospitalized patients, but their 1st 3 waves showed very similar death rate curves though very slightly blunted in the June-July 2021 as Vaccines were rolling out more fully.

Still much evidence needs to come in and it still is predicated on getting much higher Vaccine rates in all areas, but the light at the end of the tunnel may no longer by the 7:20 Express. The bigger problem in the US is the vast areas of the country that may be still coupled/linked at the hip vs pockets/areas/regions that are starting act more like much of EU. Changes in protocols can't be a one size fits all change.

UK Covid Graphs

Russia COVID graphs

South Africa graph

Scroll to the bottom to see the same charts for the US.
US Covid Graphs
 
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Robert Crawford

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It's unbelievable that these professional sports teams have been caught with their pants down with this latest Covid surge. Experts have been warning that a surge was coming and yet, the professional leagues just ignore those warnings and now we have a diminished product due to so many players being placed on their respective Covid lists. I guess that old proverb "hope for the best and prepare for the worst" doesn't apply to the powers-that-be in professional sports.

This virus doesn't care if you don't like to wear masks. It doesn't care if you don't practice social distancing and it doesn't give a damn whether you're vaccinated or not. If you're not careful, it will infect you either way, even if you have the booster shot. This virus is unrelenting and will continue to be so because mankind is tired of following the proper pandemic protocols and restrictions. It's with us forever!
 

David Norman

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I guess some depends on other questions many which I've not seen addressed and some probably aren't known yet.

With the number of recent positives I think False Positive results can be ignored as a major component

Did the NFL, etc set their guidelines based on CDC guidance and follow those fully. The former is a maybe, the latter probably/definitely not. Is the current rash of Positive Test related to the initial rules being incorrect/not substantial enough, the guidance itself being incorrect, or failure of a significant number of hte players and team not following the rules. I think some of each may be in play though with the sheer number of infections coming very quickly I doubt think everyone or even most players were ignoring the set rules.

A large part is certainly the lack of understanding that even full vacc./boosted individuals are going to test positive and potentially get ill. Even if the breakthrough positive illness is 2-5% or less, that still enough individuals when you're talking about 1000's of players and personnel even if everyone is masking and distancing as much as they can. I don't think even the most optimistic though a zero positive rate was even possible.

The absolute #1 question that needs to be answered and I don't know how close that answered might be (critical for Sports and general society as a whole) -- how many of the Healthy/Asymptomatic players testing positive are shedding virus and if they are is at a level that's contagious to unprotected contacts, partially vaccinated, fully vaccinated, and Vax/Boostered individuals? If it turns out the Vacc and Vacc/Boosted individual are +, but not contagious then that changes everything about the next level of guidance and even testing protocols. Inconsequential Positives could then be almost treated as negative/healthy individuals. I even heard some CDC or NIH person use the term Superboosted today to refer to many of the Vacc or Vacc/Boosted breakthroughs due to a major surge in measured antibodies -- the breakthrough seems to be acting as it's own extra Booster Shot maybe even with a very specific variant component.

So far I've not heard of any of this recent group of Vaccinated players even having mild symptoms much less significant symptoms,


The wild card in all of this is the actual severity of Omicron. I think it's very clear that the contagiousness level is through the roof and one early report from the UK today shows that prior infections with other variants really don't protect well at all against Omicron reinfection (nothing said on severity of those reinfections since it's still a little too early). If hospitalization rates in the UK start jumping in the next 2 weeks, then things could really dicey quickly here esp after seeing the New York State number of daily infections appears to now quadrupled in 2 weeks.
 
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Mark Booth

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There has been enough evidence reported to convince me that Omicron is significantly more contagious than Delta. I am also convinced that Omicron can easily get past the vaccine and cause infection in vaccinated persons. Those that are boosted seem to have a better defense against Omicron.

Fortunately, in fully vaccinated persons, Omicron seems to mostly cause mild to moderate symptoms. It may be less serious than Delta in unvaccinated persons too.

But Omicron's lack of serious symptoms is NO REASON to pretend we can go back to "normal". EVERY infection is one more chance for a NEW variant to sprout. It is simple math, the more infections there are the higher the risk of new variants. And my fear is a MUCH more serious variant is going to get brewed. A variant what not only gets past the vaccine but also causes a much higher percentage of serious symptoms.

NATURE FINDS A WAY! It is downright wrong-headed and incredibly shortsighted to abandon wearing masks or abandon taking every precaution you can to avoid infection.

Mark
 

RobertMG

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There has been enough evidence reported to convince me that Omicron is significantly more contagious than Delta. I am also convinced that Omicron can easily get past the vaccine and cause infection in vaccinated persons. Those that are boosted seem to have a better defense against Omicron.

Fortunately, in fully vaccinated persons, Omicron seems to mostly cause mild to moderate symptoms. It may be less serious than Delta in unvaccinated persons too.

But Omicron's lack of serious symptoms is NO REASON to pretend we can go back to "normal". EVERY infection is one more chance for a NEW variant to sprout. It is simple math, the more infections there are the higher the risk of new variants. And my fear is a MUCH more serious variant is going to get brewed. A variant what not only gets past the vaccine but also causes a much higher percentage of serious symptoms.

NATURE FINDS A WAY! It is downright wrong-headed and incredibly shortsighted to abandon wearing masks or abandon taking every precaution you can to avoid infection.

Mark
Wouldn't touch this thread with a 10 foot pole, just to say sadly not everyone's situations are cut and dry. I have had 6 surgeries since 11/27/20 - 4 more dec 2020 and last one this past 4/23/21 every time I have been tested numerous times. I nearly died on the operating table once in dec, I lost 60 lbs from 9/20-12/20 No i have not taken the vaccine why? I put the weight back then lost it all again due to my mouth having swelling so bad I cannot eat. So any reaction could possibly kill me, I stay in the house nearly 24/7 it's just my Mom and I and the two dogs - when we go out I wear a mask - I wash my hands over and over.
 

Mark Booth

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Wouldn't touch this thread with a 10 foot pole, just to say sadly not everyone's situations are cut and dry. I have had 6 surgeries since 11/27/20 - 4 more dec 2020 and last one this past 4/23/21 every time I have been tested numerous times. I nearly died on the operating table once in dec, I lost 60 lbs from 9/20-12/20 No i have not taken the vaccine why? I put the weight back then lost it all again due to my mouth having swelling so bad I cannot eat. So any reaction could possibly kill me, I stay in the house nearly 24/7 it's just my Mom and I and the two dogs - when we go out I wear a mask - I wash my hands over and over.

Sounds to me like you are taking every precaution you can.

The thrust of my message was directed at all of the people I see running around without masks, shaking hands, picking their nose, gathering in large groups without masks, going out to dinner in cramped restaurants, and generally acting like the pandemic is over. It's not.

My personal *fear* is the worst could be yet to come. I hope my fear is unfounded.

In another forum, on March 1, 2020, I wrote that I wouldn't be surprised if this pandemic killed 1 million people in the U.S. I really want to be wrong about that number. But, we recently exceeded 800,000 lost to COVID. <sigh>

Mark
 

RobertMG

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Sounds to me like you are taking every precaution you can.

The thrust of my message was directed at all of the people I see running around without masks, shaking hands, picking their nose, gathering in large groups without masks, going out to dinner in cramped restaurants, and generally acting like the pandemic is over. It's not.

My personal *fear* is the worst could be yet to come. I hope my fear is unfounded.

In another forum, on March 1, 2020, I wrote that I wouldn't be surprised if this pandemic killed 1 million people in the U.S. I really want to be wrong about that number. But, we recently exceeded 800,000 lost to COVID. <sigh>

Mark
Thank you Sir. I love history having written two history books - sadly we are chasing a tiger which we cannot control. The hard plain truth is it must run it's course. 1918 pandemic in reality might have killed more because population was less. I often visit St. Mary's Cemetery in Flushing NY as a lot of our family is buried there. One section has a huge amount of graves of an entire Convent of Nurses was wiped out by the pandemic. 1957's Pandemic took 4 million and so did 1967's hate to say the name "Hong Kong Flu" - many Dr's have stated 1918's burned out as the virus mutated and weakened. Sadly we are on the same course now - it will burn out eventually as it weakens - lockdowns did not alter anything biggest thing we can do is be cleaner. Stop using self pump gas - stop using ATMS stop using self serve drinks at fast food places because people use them and are not the cleanest yet their hands are all over them. We also need to question having other dangers holed up in labs like samples of small pox --- GOD help us if that escapes or is used as a bioweapon, Things could have been done different shelter elderly at home with people too at risk and the people young and healthy should have gone on worked driven trucks to get supplies moving etc. The good news is the Dr that discovered Omicron in Africa has been right it is MILD that is good. Our bodies have a way of fighting viruses too lets hope Omicron is a good sign.
 

Mark Booth

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Yes, the potential upside of Omicron is that it might lead to even less severe (but possibly more contagious) variants. It is possible that the virus will mutate to the point that it really no more dangerous than the common cold.

But I'm not walking into a packed restaurant without a mask before we KNOW that's what has happened and the risk factor is significantly lower than it is now.

Mark
 

Josh Steinberg

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Friendly reminder that this is a thread about how you are personally dealing with the pandemic, not for general news of the day. This thread is for us to share our experiences and hopefully lift each other up, not to discuss the news of the day. Let’s all keep Nelson’s introductory post in mind please.
 

RobertMG

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Friendly reminder that this is a thread about how you are personally dealing with the pandemic, not for general news of the day. This thread is for us to share our experiences and hopefully lift each other up, not to discuss the news of the day. Let’s all keep Nelson’s introductory post in mind please.
understood!
 

Robert Crawford

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Friendly reminder that this is a thread about how you are personally dealing with the pandemic, not for general news of the day. This thread is for us to share our experiences and hopefully lift each other up, not to discuss the news of the day. Let’s all keep Nelson’s introductory post in mind please.
My post was one out of frustration as my enjoyment of sports as a form of entertainment is being severely compromised. The same with me being able to go to the movie theater. Thankfully, my home theaters are still rocking along.
 

Josh Steinberg

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My post was one out of frustration as my enjoyment of sports as a form of entertainment is being severely compromised. The same with me being able to go to the movie theater.

The whole situation sucks. I don’t feel comfortable seeing Spider-Man and that’s such a disappointment for me. My wife and I crammed in all of the prior series of Spidey films getting ready for this thing, and now it feels like the best we can hope for is that none of the surprises get blown for us before they make it available for streaming in a couple months. I went from feeling reasonably comfortable planning a (smallish but larger than last year) family Christmas gathering to wondering if it was going to be possible at all. I understand not everyone feels the need to take the same precautions but with both people too young to be vaccinated and people who are at higher risk, I don’t feel that I can ignore safety concerns. It’s really a major bummer.
 

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