2023 At The Box Office (1 Viewer)

[Jake Lipson]

For Universal, the way it works is that movies that open below a certain box office threshold, or that open big and decline rapidly, ate offered as PVOD rentals after 17 days. For films that exceed a certain box office metric get held for 33 days instead.

The opening threshold is $50 million.

 

[Joe Wong]

Re: Universal PVOD model

1. Is this the reason Fast X is available to rent this week? I only saw it in cinemas 3 weeks ago!

2. Its opening weekend was $67 million, which means it must be one of those films that opened big but is declining rapidly.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Is this the reason Fast X is available to rent this week?

Yes.

Its opening weekend was $67 million.

That's enough. The threshold is $50 million opening to trigger the longer window. Even Mario, which has made a TON more money than Fast X, had a trip to PVOD after about a month, regardless of its incredible legs.

 

[Tino]

Index

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%LW	Theaters	Theaters Change	Per Theater	Total Gross	Weekends In Release
1	N	Transformers: Rise of the Beasts	Paramount Pi…	$60,500,000		3,678		$16,449	$60,500,000	1
2	(1)	Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse	Sony Pictures	$55,425,000	-54%	4,332	+19	$12,794	$225,446,000	2
3	(2)	The Little Mermaid	Walt Disney	$22,790,000	-45%	4,320	n/c	$5,275	$228,810,339	3
4	(4)	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3	Walt Disney	$7,028,000	-34%	3,175	-405	$2,214	$335,400,769	6
5	(3)	The Boogeyman	20th Century…	$6,917,000	-44%	3,205	n/c	$2,158	$24,737,895	2
6	(5)	Fast X	Universal	$5,200,000	-46%	2,822	-645	$1,843	$138,127,000	4
7	(6)	The Super Mario Bros. Movie	Universal	$2,120,000	-37%	1,789	-555	$1,185	$570,163,000	10
8	(7)	About My Father	Lionsgate	$845,000	-59%	960	-1,504	$880	$10,761,809	3
9	(8)	The Machine	Sony Pictures	$575,000	-67%	1,008	-1,401	$570	$10,096,000	3
10	(12)	Past Lives	A24	$520,772	+124%	26	+22	$20,030	$867,096	2
11	(9)	You Hurt My Feelings	A24	$417,454	-45%	427	-485	$978	$3,809,793	3
-	N	Mending the Line	Blue Fox Ent…	$225,659		403		$560	$225,659	1
-	(-)	The Roundup: No Way Out	Capelight Pi…	$155,674	-19%	28	-13	$5,560	$481,277	2
-	(-)	Book Club: The Next Chapter	Focus Features	$115,000	-48%	208	-174	$553	$17,390,000	5
-	(-)	John Wick: Chapter 4	Lionsgate	$92,000	-49%	118	-113	$780	$187,074,946	12
-	(-)	Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret	Lionsgate	$89,000	-42%	134	-54	$664	$20,294,849	7
-	N	The Angry Black Girl and Her Monster	RLJ Entertai…	$50,000		56		$893	$50,000	1
-	(-)	Chevalier	Searchlight …	$35,000	+168%	218	+148	$161	$3,509,723	8
-	(-)	Blackberry	IFC Films	$22,000	-43%	36	-19	$611	$2,368,998	5
-	(-)	Nefarious	Soli Deo Glo…	$17,000	-59%	36	-41	$472	$5,422,885	9
-	(-)	Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania	Walt Disney	$12,000	-59%	20	-5	$600	$214,504,697	17
-	N	Squaring the Circle	Utopia	$10,011		1		$10,011	$10,011	1
-	N	Scarlet	Kino Lorber	$8,176		2		$4,088	$8,176	1
		23		$163,169,746

 

[Malcolm R]

Nice start for Beasts and nice 2nd week hold for The Boogeyman compared to the average horror film.

 

[Jake Lipson]

$60 million to $55 million is a relatively thin margin. If Transformers was overestimated, or if Across the Spider-Verse was underestimated, it's not out of the realm of possibility that those two could swap places tomorrow when the actual numbers for Sunday come in.

It's funny that these two franchises wound up in such close proximity to each other again because that also happened last time with Into the Spider-Verse and Bumblebee.

 

[Lord Dalek]

60m is not a great initial take and I don't know if they're going to crack the break even mark of 500m with it.

 

[Malcolm R]

Looks like most of the predictions were pretty close to the actual numbers. Beasts added another $500K and Spider-Man was pretty spot-on.

60m is not a great initial take and I don't know if they're going to crack the break even mark of 500m with it.

It's stellar when looking at the last entry, Bumblebee, that only opened with $21.6 million, and ended with $465 million worldwide ($127 million domestic). They're also expecting Beasts to do well internationally ($171 million worldwide opening weekend).

 

[Wayne_j]

The latest Transformers film did better than their last 2 films opening weekend.

 

[Jake Lipson]

The latest Transformers film did better than their last 2 films opening weekend.

You are absolutely right. However, it is worth noting that Bumblebee opened in proximity to Christmas, when business tends to be more spread out due to the imminent holidays. So it is not exactly the same release pattern.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

You are absolutely right. However, it is worth noting that Bumblebee opened in proximity to Christmas, when business tends to be more spread out due to the imminent holidays. So it is not exactly the same release pattern.

Yeah, but "BB" still didn't find much of an audience - well, not relative to that franchise's standards, at least.

However, it was apparently substantially less expensive to make than "Last Knight", so while it made considerably less at the WW box office, it turned a better profit.

 

[benbess]

Fast X's box office is $661 million so far, but since the movie reportedly cost about $340 million to make, and maybe another c. $100 million for ads, it's probably going to lose money. The guideline that Tino has mentioned a few times is that most movies need to earn 2.5x their budget to break even, which would mean that c. $850 million might be needed for Fast X. If so, Fast X might be looking at a loss even after home video of maybe around $100 million. Costs seem to have gotten out of control for this franchise, and it seems like they'll need to try to retrench for the next one. But since no one is likely to want to cut their own paydays (salaries for stars, director, producers, etc. apparently totaling around $100 million for Fast X), what gets cut? Special effects? Spectacular location shoots? Guest stars? Cars?

 

[TravisR]

Fast X's box office is $661 million so far, but since the movie reportedly cost about $340 million to make...

The production budget of Fast X can't be that expensive... can it?

 

[Tino]

The guideline that Tino has mentioned a few times is that most movies need to earn 2.5x their budget to break even,

Probably closer to 3X for this particular film with its massive promotional campaign.

 

[Tino]

The production budget of Fast X can't be that expensive... can it?

According to The Wrap, the budget for Fast X is now close to $340 million.

 

[TravisR]

According to The Wrap, the budget for Fast X is now close to $340 million.

I'm just going to assume that they paid Vin like $270 million because I can't go on any other way.

 

[Desslar]

Is Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse tanking internationally, or are the numbers just slow in coming? Only 26% of box office is from international so far, whereas the first movie hit 50%. Wonder why.

 

[benbess]

I'm just going to assume that they paid Vin like $270 million because I can't go on any other way.

From that article....

"Not only is Diesel reportedly making $20 million for appearing as Toretto in the movie, but a number of other legacy stars, such as Michelle Rodriguez, Jordana Brewster, Tyrese Gibson, and Ludacris, are likely also commanding relatively large salaries. The cast for Fast X will feature a host of other new and returning stars, including Sung Kang, Brie Larson, Jason Momoa, John Cena, Charlize Theron, Alan Ritchson, Nathalie Emmanuel, Helen Mirren, Scott Eastwood, Michael Rooker, Rita Moreno, and Daniela Melchior, all of which are contributing to Fast X's large price tag."

Since Vin Diesel is also one of the producers on this movie, we can guess that he might be getting a small percentage of the box office as well.

Just speculation, but I have a feeling that there are sometimes gullible people among the well-off who want to think of themselves as being in the biz, and so perhaps contribute money to the making of movies like this. But the way contracts are written, along with creative Hollywood accounting, just means that it's probably about the same as putting large quantities of cash into a fireplace and burning it up—but it's really going to fx houses and into Vin Diesel's account. Probably after one experience like this such "investors" move on to something else, but then perhaps there are others to take their place for the next movie.

 

[Malcolm R]

Is Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse tanking internationally, or are the numbers just slow in coming? Only 26% of box office is from international so far, whereas the first movie hit 50%. Wonder why.

Box Office Mojo has issues. These are the totals from The Numbers, which I find more up-to-date. But the animated Spider-Man doesn't seem to be as popular internationally as the live action films. The first film did more domestically than internationally.

The Fast franchise has made ridiculous profits over the course of the franchise, so I don't think they need to worry too much. The studio had to know it would be tough to reach profitability by spending that much on Fast X. The overall grosses of the franchise have been trending downward for the past couple of films (peaked with Furious 7). The difference may be whether the studio allows this finale to be a two-parter, as originally announced, or a trilogy as Diesel seems to want.

 

[benbess]

Box Office: Ezra Miller’s ‘The Flash,’ Pixar’s ‘Elemental’ Get Iced by Moviegoers

'Elemental' marks Pixar's lowest opening since 'Toy Story' nearly three decades ago, while 'The Flash' was snubbed. One bright spot of the holiday weekend was 'Asteroid City,' which secured the best location average since 'La La Land.'

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Box Office: ‘The Flash’ Paces Itself With $24.5 Million Opening Day, Pixar’s ‘Elemental’ Doesn’t Catch Fire

Nine years after it was first announced, “The Flash” has finally dashed into theaters, speeding toward a debut ahead of the box office competition. But the DC Studios film isn’t e…

variety.com

"...Disney and Pixar’s “Elemental,” which follows a flame woman and a watery man that develop some chemistry with one another, is looking at a debut below $30 million through Sunday after earning $11.8 million from 4,035 theaters on opening day. That would mark the lowest three-day opening in the history of Pixar, falling well short of the $39 million that met “The Good Dinosaur” and “Onward.” When “The Good Dinosaur” opened in 2015, the film was seen as the first box office disappointment in the animation studio’s history. “Elemental” represents an even tougher licking, following last summer’s flop of “Lightyear,” which finished with $226 million worldwide against a $200 million production budget. Before that, Disney released Pixar’s three previous features (“Soul,” “Luca” and “Turning Red”) directly on Disney+ — a move that studio chief Pete Docter believes “trained” Pixar audiences to stay away from theaters."