I don't want to guess until I've seen the Oscar hopefuls that get released in December.
Since there's 10 Best Picture nominations now, I think Up has a chance of getting nominated but that's it. Out of the 60 or so movies released in 2009 that I've seen, it's the best one but there's no way that a cartoon will win.
If "Amelia" gets a nod, something is very, very wrong. Dissappointing is a major understatement. Her dialog is so stilted and poor that it's hard to overlook. And the film gives her all the personality of a cardboard cutout. Just terrible, IMHO.. overhyped crap.
So far, I haven't seen a single film this year that I consider as good as "Up". If, in the expanded field, it does not get a nomination, then shame on everyone involved.
There are films left on my list that aren't above (The Road) we'll have to wait and see.
that said, DIstrict 9 and Amelia probably shouldn't be included. It's possible that Inglourious [sic] Basterds [sic] will get nominated but I would put it, at best in an alternate spot--Avatar looks more likely to earn a BP nomination at this point. Star Trek is more likely than District 9. Amelia being included in a predictions set of ten is just bizarre.
Right now I would pick, in descending order:
Up in the Air (frontrunner at this point)
Nine
Precious
The Hurt Locker
Up
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
An Education
Avatar
Julie and Julia
alternate possibilities
The Road
Inglourious [sic] Basterds [sic]
A Serious Man
Star Trek
A Single Man
It's Complicated
The Princess and the Frog
Crazy Heart
Bright Star
Where the Wild Things Are
The Last Station
then way down after Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, & A Christmas Carol would be movies like District 9 and Amelia