The latest on Conan, Leno and NBC (1 Viewer)

[mattCR]

My apologies, the original as I received in email implied it was zucker.. Nikki needs to better edit her twitter

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Originally Posted by Zack Gibbs

Well that's very interesting. Sounds like the hosts all realize it's a shit hand, and if they don't accept it the only possible outcome I could see is Jay calling it quits.

I think it's far more likely that Conan walks, Leno resumes the Tonight Show, and Fallon and Daly stay put. Under Conan's contract, he'll make $20 million a year from NBC whether he's on the air or not -- with the catch that any income made from another network would be subtracted from that total. I could see him taking a gig at Fox for, say, $17,000 a year -- forcing NBC to pay him the bulk of the salary to the standard bearer of one of its competitors. The situation's a total mess, leading me to once again question how Jeff Zucker still has a job. NBC should have either let Conan walk in 2004 when he was making noises or let Jay walk last year when he refused to leave quietly. Now the network's on the hook for two sweetheart contracts that don't leave them with a lot of options.

 

[StephenA]

I think Jay Leno should just go onto something else, even though I like watching some of his stuff. I could of sworn that towards the end of his run on the Tonight Show that he said if his new show didn't work out, that he would leave without a fuss, or something to that effect. I could be wrong on that though.

 

[Zack Gibbs]

^^But what makes you think any of that is likely Adam?

Leno's lost his viewers, just showing up at 11:30 isn't going to bring them back. And it's his show that is crippling their line up and late night ratings. Would they really risk losing Conan, giving Leno back TTS, only to see the shows ratings plummet even further?

They already look like asses but it can get much much worse.

 

[Greg.K]

I think Conan should walk. Leno could resume the Tonight Show, but would he take over Conan's show? Would it shut down for a while to retool back to a Leno focused show? What a mess.

 

[Patrick H.]

Originally Posted by Adam Lenhardt

I think it's far more likely that Conan walks, Leno resumes the Tonight Show, and Fallon and Daly stay put. Under Conan's contract, he'll make $20 million a year from NBC whether he's on the air or not -- with the catch that any income made from another network would be subtracted from that total. I could see him taking a gig at Fox for, say, $17,000 a year -- forcing NBC to pay him the bulk of the salary to the standard bearer of one of its competitors. The situation's a total mess, leading me to once again question how Jeff Zucker still has a job.

If I were Conan, that is EXACTLY what I would do. Plus I think a return to something resembling his 'Late Night' format would be a good fit and might eventually thrive on Fox at 11:30.

 

[MielR]

[COLOR= rgb(24, 24, 24)]I feel at this point, Leno should step aside and Conan should be allowed to grow on people in that time slot, sans Jay. Jay had a great run, and I think Conan should have his chance now.[/COLOR]

 

[Mike Frezon]

Originally Posted by MielR

I feel at this point, Leno should step aside and Conan should be allowed to grow on people in that time slot, sans Jay. Jay had a great run, and I think Conan should have his chance now.

That would be the right & decent thing to do. But it sounds like they are panicking...and not thinking clearly.

 

[MielR]

Originally Posted by Mike Frezon


...it sounds like they are panicking...and not thinking clearly.

It sure does. But at least on the 2 nights when NBC's remaining Law & Order shows air (which still get good ratings, I assume) Conan may have a chance at improving his ratings if they put L&O back at 10pm and people stay through the local news.

 

[TonyD]

Ok can the title of this topic get corrected now?

Leno's show is cancelled for now and Conan still hasn't been "axed".

 

[Mike Frezon]

Originally Posted by MielR

Conan may have a chance at improving his ratings if they put L&O back at 10pm and people stay through the local news.

He deserves that chance. He proved the critics wrong all those years ago when he took over for Dave.

You need a little time to build an audience, for goodness' sake.

NBC should stick with its decision to move on from Jay. Don't panic and make things even worse.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Originally Posted by Zack Gibbs

^^But what makes you think any of that is likely Adam?

What makes you think Leno leaving is the only possible solution? Leno's 10 PM ratings absolutely destroy Conan's 11:35 PM ratings. At this point, Leno remains the more viable asset -- especially since, as he has repeatedly made clear, he's not going to leave politely.

That puts the ball in Conan's court: he either puts up and shuts up at 12:05 on NBC, hoping that Leno won't recover and he'll be able to outlast him, or he tires of being shit on by the network and walks. Conan at Fox is potentially more dangerous to NBC than Leno at Fox because Leno's demographics line up better with NBC's demographics. But that same argument is why NBC would pick Leno over Conan.

Overall, I still think the smart move for Conan would be to stay an NBC and bide his time. An NBC/CBS late night showdown is a better situation for Conan to inherit than if he goes to Fox and the market fragments into a four-way race between all of the major networks now.

Who's sitting the prettiest right now? Craig Ferguson. By the time he inherits the Late Show from Letterman, this mess will have all blown over. In the meantime, he'll be up against either the perpetually awful Jimmy Fallon or the sloppy second half of Conan. Either is great news for him.

 

[Zack Gibbs]

Well, I thought I made my case clearly enough. Extremely poor primetime numbers don't equal decent late night numbers. There's no way he can take back the tonight show in good faith. They've invested too much into Conan, and they don't even know how his show will shape up, it's still got Jay Leno dragging it down.

I'll wager 1500 HTF points that if someone leaves NBC's current lineup, it'll be Leno. Maybe he'll rethink a weekly show or something, who knows.

 

[mattCR]

I do believe all of this benefits Fergueson, who runs a good show.
That having been said, you are also right on Conan moving being a big potential problem for NBC.. if Conan were to jump to Fox, he wouldn't be jumping to an 11:35 start. He'd be jumping to a 10:30PM (EST) or 11PM (EST) start, because Fox does their local news @ 10PM EST. Fox would love to have Conan in that spot, because at a minimum, 1/2 his show would be up against everyone else's newscast, which would improve their already strong nightly news, and Fox would have instant tie-ins to their programming (American Idol anyone?)

Fox's young demographic would also favor Conan in a big way.

NBC either fixes this some how or they really screw the pooch. There isn't much of an inbetween. Other networks have to be laughing their absolute ass off. Where's BrianK who was all thinking we were idiots for saying Leno would fail?? Sorry Brian

What's funnier is that word is coming out fast and furious that the decision was made -without- Zucker. So, the higher ups pulled the trigger. Talk about a vote of no-confidence.

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Originally Posted by Zack Gibbs

Well, I thought I made my case clearly enough. Extremely poor primetime numbers don't equal decent late night numbers. There's no way he can take back the tonight show in good faith. They've invested too much into Conan, and they don't even know how his show will shape up, it's still got Jay Leno dragging it down.

But decent late night numbers mean decent late night numbers. Leno didn't leave the Tonight Show because he was underperforming, he left the Tonight Show because that was the deal NBC had to make to keep Conan from bolting in 2004.

Conan averages two million fewer viewers a night than Leno did in the timeslot. Leno has exceeded NBC's expectations ratings-wise in primetime, averaging a 1.98 audience share when they were only looking for a 1.8 audience share. The problem is, they refused to deal with the fact that affiliates were always going to need a much better lead-in than 1.98. It was the whole idea of a 10 PM Leno show that was flawed, more than anything Leno did or didn't do. And Leno's 6.6 million viewers a night absolutely destroy Conan's 2.94 million viewers a night.

None of that means that Conan isn't the smarter long-term investment. But given the current NBC management's laser-sharp focus on the short-term over everything else, Leno has the better numbers making Leno the more valuable asset. Leno will perform better at 11:35 PM than Conan. Guaranteed.

The only problem with hitching on the Leno bandwagon is that they'll find themselves yet again without a viable succession strategy when Leno finally retires, dies or whatever. Jimmy Fallon simply won't cut it.

I'll wager 1500 HTF points that if someone leaves NBC's current lineup, it'll be Leno. Maybe he'll rethink a weekly show or something, who knows.

We'll find out by the middle of February.

 

[Patrick Sun]

Why is Craig Ferguson's chair so much higher than the chair for his guests?

 

[TonyD]

Originally Posted by Patrick Sun

Why is Craig Ferguson's chair so much higher than the chair for his guests?

As far as I've seen all the late night hosts have a higher chair, especially Letterman.

Also Fox in Philly has a 1 hour 10p news program not a half hour.

 

[LynxFX]

I really feel bad for Conan and his entire staff who uprooted from NY to come to LA. Lots of families changed their entire lives for this. So hopefully it all works out well for them.

Leno had his chance to get an audience. Didn't 18m people watch the premiere? What they discovered was that the show just wasn't that good as a couple pages worth of posts here already point out. Personally I wish Leno would scrap the Tonight Show format and just do his own thing. Do a fulltime car show, something that he is obviously extremely passionate about and very comfortable talking about. Top Gear UK has shown you can create a comedy car show that appeals to a mass audience, including people that don't even care for cars. Just don't be forced to make another gokart track behind your studio.

 

[Mike Frezon]

Originally Posted by Patrick Sun

Why is Craig Ferguson's chair so much higher than the chair for his guests?

Originally Posted by TonyD

As far as I've seen all the late night hosts have a higher chair, especially Letterman.

Talk Show 101. Higher chairs put the host in a position of power over the guest.

Yup. They ALL do it. And usually a bold guest will point it out every so often.

 

[mattCR]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

Leno had his chance to get an audience. Didn't 18m people watch the premiere? What they discovered was that the show just wasn't that good as a couple pages worth of posts here already point out. Personally I wish Leno would scrap the Tonight Show format and just do his own thing. Do a fulltime car show, something that he is obviously extremely passionate about and very comfortable talking about. Top Gear UK has shown you can create a comedy car show that appeals to a mass audience, including people that don't even care for cars. Just don't be forced to make another gokart track behind your studio.

The problem with doing Top Gear (as much as I love it) is that Jay is NOT Jeremy Clarkson. More then that, the other issue is that part of what makes Top Gear great are that they will issue bad reviews, and generally, with GE being a big provider of parts to all major car manufacturers, there isn't a lot of interest in openly bagging someone's product in primetime as a comedy format. Real disasters? Sure. Take it to Dateline or 60 Minutes but you can't make fun of the product like they do on Top Gear.

As to the other: yes, here Fox News is also 1 hour at 9CST.. (10EST) and I know it's the same in Miami Florida. Which is all good. They could either change to a half hour or give Conan etc. a 30 minute head start.