Blu-Ray Media Market Share is Growing (1 Viewer)

[Scott-S]

According to the Blu-Ray stats website the Market Share of Blu-Ray is growing. Blu-Ray Market Share

I made a graph of Blu-ray market share (vrs DVD) over time since the format war ended.



It is easy to see a trend. That can only be good news for Blu supporters.

 

[Scott-S]

I found this old topic I started 7 years ago. No one replied, but it was early on.


I though since that last market share data from http://www.homemediamagazine.com/ shows that for the week ending 10/24/2015, the Blu-Ray market share reached its highest point I would post an updated chart. It seems to show a leveling off trend over the last year, but the holiday season is coming up.

P.S> I would have edited the first post, but for some reason there is no edit option.

 

[Brent Reid]

Ha, that's what I call tenacious: bumping your own unanswered seven-year-old thread!

Am glad you did though: the latter graph looks interesting. I wonder what caused those spikes; the latest Transformers release, perhaps?

 

[Scott-S]

I noticed that the spikes are around late October. I am not sure if it is when the previous holiday season movies come out on DVD/Blu or specific titles. I did notice this last spike was because of Jurasic World being 63% Blu and the largest seller. It could also be the Back to the Future, and Age of Ultron were well over 50%.


Rank
Title
Studio
Share*
1
Monty Python and the Holy Grail
Sony Pictures
79.46%
2
Jurassic World
Universal
63.14%
3
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Disney/Marvel
57.08%
4
Back to the Future: 30th Anniversary Trilogy
Universal
54.60%
5
Jurassic Park Collection
Universal
54.02%
6
Mad Max: Fury Road
Warner
52.69%
7
Southpaw
Anchor Bay
49.08%
8
Tomorrowland
Disney
48.12%
9
Furious 7
Universal
47.37%
10
Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection 'F'
Funimation
46.45%
11
Cinderella
Disney
46.30%
12
Pixels
Sony Pictures
45.73%
13
San Andreas
Warner
41.43%
14
Jurassic Park
Universal
41.31%
15
The Gift
Universal
40.93%



If anyone else is interested I also have the same graph for Blu revenue as well that shows the Blu dollars is almost flat even tho the market share is rising. Not sure what that means.

 

[Worth]

If anyone else is interested I also have the same graph for Blu revenue as well that shows the Blu dollars is almost flat even tho the market share is rising. Not sure what that means.

It means disc sales in general are declining, with DVD declining faster than blu-ray.

 

[Scott-S]

Well, since I went though the trouble of resurrecting this old thread , I might as well show the revenue chart.


You can certainly see the holiday "bump" in sales:

The revenue axis is in Millions of US Dollars.


The other interesting thing in this graph is the bump in early spring every year. I wonder what that is?

 

[David Norman]

It would be interesting to see Unit Numbers as well or maybe better an average dollar cost per unit since it seems to me there are more $5-$8 BD than ever, faster
discounting of new releases. The specialty items (SHout, Kino, TT, Criterion) haven't gone down much, but I'm guessing those are a fairly small fraction of sales.
Disney also of course hold their price line pretty well, but

I;m guessing DVD buyers are going away faster. Bluray buyers tend to be the higher end folks who want something better than streaming or digital.
I'd imagine a huge differential in Collectors on the BD side.

The other interesting thing in this graph is the bump in early spring every year. I wonder what that is?

Possibly the Spring Disney releases plus the Thanksgiving/Xmas Holiday blockbuster releases coming out in march/April.
I was thinking Xmas GC/Money, but likely it's the style movies that would likely be released around that time.

 

[Persianimmortal]

How are you generating that trend line? It should be curving downwards in both graphs.

 

[Scott-S]

It is just Excel's Linear Trend line. If I change the Revenue trend line to a Polynomial one with a greater than 2nd order, it does start to trend down. The Market share one goes down on a 3rd order, but trends up on greater than 3rd. I am not a math/stats major so the details of this are above my head.


If anyone wants the Excel spreadsheet with the numbers, PM me.

 

[Persianimmortal]

Ah ok. A linear trend line is really only useful if the data forms a visible line. In this case the data looks to be curving, so a polynomial trend line would be more descriptive.

Unit sales would be interesting, but I'd speculate that since the bulk of the revenue comes from new release titles, and they remain fairly expensive, there probably hasn't been that much of a rise in total units sold.

 

[jcroy]

An easy check is whether the line's slope is statistically zero or not.

 

[LouA]

I just bought the Graduate for $4.99, and the Jurassic Park films for $9.99 on BD. As Bluray prices continue to drop, the share of the market will increase. I don't see bluray cutting into the classic TV market . I don't think that the masters for the type of programming that a company like Shout Factory has to work with ( like Ironsides or Leave It To Beaver ) would look good on BD. But I could be wrong .

 

[Randy Korstick]

I think this graph is a good illustration based on actual sales. This is from August but is updated in these forums from time to time. It also illustrates that Blu-Ray is declining faster than DVD. Most likely due to Blu never gaining the market share that DVD had before discs started to decline. Blu is now trending more towards niche with all the boutique labels keeping catalog titles alive.

 

[jcroy]

I just bought the Graduate for $4.99, and the Jurassic Park films for $9.99 on BD. As Bluray prices continue to drop, the share of the market will increase.

At times I wonder whether demand is relatively constant, or going down with time.


ie. Is bluray highly dependent on a customer base of compulsive collectors ?

 

[Scott-S]

Here is the newest one since you seemed to have grabbed a "worse case" one to show.

 

[Scott-S]

I think this graph is a good illustration based on actual sales. This is from August but is updated in these forums from time to time. It also illustrates that Blu-Ray is declining faster than DVD.

It isn't very accurate to take a single data point to make that statement. Blu market share is still rising. My graph in post#2 shows this. Where are you seeing a declining trend?

 

[David Norman]

Week to week comparisons I would guess would be useless since as you see it has more to do with current popular release.
Year to year certainly makes more sense, even quarterly over 4-5 year to year trends though no doubt (and probably irreversibly) so the
trend is unhealthy as more people opt to lower quality, convenience even though it's though it often more expensive if you're looking for at least temporary
ownership rights. At least I can sell my Bluray for something if I wanted to.

 

[Randy Korstick]

I actually wasn't selective in my graph it was the only one I had saved

The new graph from 2 months later is very interesting since it shows increases over last year in sales of DVD and Blu Ray. That goes against what everyone is saying concerning disc sales are dying fast in favor of streaming and downloads. It certainly shows the opposite.

I see a declining trend in the number of new Blu Ray releases from the big studios compared to 4-5 years ago when titles were being cranked out. Especially when it comes to catalog titles. Around 80% of catalog titles are being released by boutique labels like Shout, Twilight Time, Kino and Olive.

This suggests the format is becoming more of a niche format.

It isn't very accurate to take a single data point to make that statement. Blu market share is still rising. My graph in post#2 shows this. Where are you seeing a declining trend?

 

[Randy Korstick]

Very true there were a lot of big releases in October accounting for the spike especially for blu. I have seen this chart posted a lot this year and there is normally a much bigger share for DVD. Which surprises Home Theater buffs like us but the average Joe on the street never thought it was worth upgrading. And they account for a much bigger number than Home Theater buffs.

Week to week comparisons I would guess would be useless since as you see it has more to do with current popular release.
Year to year certainly makes more sense, even quarterly over 4-5 year to year trends though no doubt (and probably irreversibly) so the
trend is unhealthy as more people opt to lower quality, convenience even though it's though it often more expensive if you're looking for at least temporary
ownership rights. At least I can sell my Bluray for something if I wanted to.

 

[Scott-S]

I think that the slowing down in catalog releases on Blu-ray might also be because they have release almost all of the 1st tier (popular) ones and are now getting to the lesser titles. Any title that is not now available on Blu-ray probably is not going to be a huge seller. That is why they are going to the smaller labels.


Clearly all the new releases are coming out on Blu-ray except maybe the Direct to Video stuff.