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General Discussion 2024 (film year 2023) Oscar Pre-Nominations Discussion and Predictions (1 Viewer)

Tino

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Be interesting to look at a list of BP winners released 1st half of their years.

I'm guessing it'd be a relatively short list.

Unseasonable prestige: 22 Best Picture winners released between January and July​


 

Tino

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My Oscar Nomination Predictions for Poor Things

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor(s?)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Editing
Best Production Design
Best Costumes
Best Visual Effects
Best Makeup
Best Music
Best Cinematography

Oscar Nominations are announced January 23
 

Jake Lipson

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MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
Dance The Night from Barbie
I’m Just Ken from Barbie
What Was I Made For? from Barbie
It is interesting that all three songs WB submitted from Barbie made the shortlist. The Academy adopted a rule +/- 15 years ago stating that no more than two songs from a given film can receive nominations. Dreamgirls and Enchanted had just had three nominations each in consecutive years and none of their songs won.

I think this means that even if music branch members reward all three songs with enough votes to get nominated, they would have to take out the one with the lowest number of votes in order to be in compliance with the rule. This is probably a boon to whatever the #6 vote-getter for nominations is because it will end up taking the spot of the third Barbie song. I think all three would probably go in if they didn't have that rule.

Often, if a film is competing with itself in this category, the songs all have the same composer/lyricist. So it would be a win for them no matter which one took the prize. (For example, The Lion King got nominations for "Circle of Life," "Hakuna Matata" "Can You Feel The Love Tonight?", the eventual winner. But even if the winner had been one of the other two, Elton John and Tim Rice would still have been the ones taking home the award.

That wasn't the case with Barbie, which used songs from multiple songwriters. So even if a song from Barbie the film gets the award, it is an open question right now as to who the recipients are going to be.

I wonder which of the three ends up knocked out?
 

Colin Jacobson

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It is interesting that all three songs WB submitted from Barbie made the shortlist. The Academy adopted a rule +/- 15 years ago stating that no more than two songs from a given film can receive nominations. Dreamgirls and Enchanted had just had three nominations each in consecutive years and none of their songs won.

I think this means that even if music branch members reward all three songs with enough votes to get nominated, they would have to take out the one with the lowest number of votes in order to be in compliance with the rule. This is probably a boon to whatever the #6 vote-getter for nominations is because it will end up taking the spot of the third Barbie song. I think all three would probably go in if they didn't have that rule.

Often, if a film is competing with itself in this category, the songs all have the same composer/lyricist. So it would be a win for them no matter which one took the prize. (For example, The Lion King got nominations for "Circle of Life," "Hakuna Matata" "Can You Feel The Love Tonight?", the eventual winner. But even if the winner had been one of the other two, Elton John and Tim Rice would still have been the ones taking home the award.

That wasn't the case with Barbie, which used songs from multiple songwriters. So even if a song from Barbie the film gets the award, it is an open question right now as to who the recipients are going to be.

I wonder which of the three ends up knocked out?

I'm betting "I'm Just Ken" wins the Oscar period.
 

Jake Lipson

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I'm betting "I'm Just Ken" wins the Oscar period.
That would have my vote if I had one.

I wonder if Gosling will actually perform it on the telecast this time? He declined to perform "City of Stars" so John Legend did it.
 

Jake Lipson

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Lady Bird (2017) and Little Women (2019) were both Best Picture nominees. I don't want to count chickens before they hatch, but it seems very likely that Barbie will be nominated for Best Picture. If that comes to pass, Greta Gerwig's first three films as director will all have been nominated for Best Picture.

Has anyone else ever achieved that feat before? I am not an expert on Oscar history, but I can't think of anyone.
 

jayembee

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Lady Bird (2017) and Little Women (2019) were both Best Picture nominees. I don't want to count chickens before they hatch, but it seems very likely that Barbie will be nominated for Best Picture. If that comes to pass, Greta Gerwig's first three films as director will all have been nominated for Best Picture.

Has anyone else ever achieved that feat before? I am not an expert on Oscar history, but I can't think of anyone.

Well, except that they aren't her first three films as director. First three films as a solo director, yes. She and Joe Swanberg co-starred, co-wrote, and co-directed Nights and Weekends back in 2008.

 

JoeStemme

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Well, except that they aren't her first three films as director. First three films as a solo director, yes. She and Joe Swanberg co-starred, co-wrote, and co-directed Nights and Weekends back in 2008.

Which the DGA conveniently ignored when they awarded her Best First Film a few years ago. The DGA also ignored that Taylor Sheridan had directed a feature film (solo) and still gave him Best First Film for WIND RIVER.
 

jayembee

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Which the DGA conveniently ignored when they awarded her Best First Film a few years ago. The DGA also ignored that Taylor Sheridan had directed a feature film (solo) and still gave him Best First Film for WIND RIVER.

I assume you mean Vile. I looked around and there was an interview with Sheridan at Rotten Tomatoes:


He had this to say regarding Wind River...

"RT: Speaking of which, a lot of people are calling this your directorial debut, but I’m seeing that you’re actually credited as a director on what appears to be a horror film called Vile, back in 2011.

"Sheridan:
[laughs] Yeah. I would say this is my feature debut. A friend of mine raised — I don’t know what he raised — 20 grand or something, and cast his buddies, and wrote this bad horror movie, that I told him not to direct. He was going to direct it and produce it, and he started and freaked out, and called and said, “Can you help me?” I said, “Yeah, I’ll try.”

"I kind of kept the ship pointed straight, and they went off and edited, and did what they did. I think it’s generous to call me the director. I think he was try to say thank you, in some way. It was an excellent opportunity to point a camera and learn some lessons that actually benefited me on Wind River."
 

JoeStemme

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I assume you mean Vile. I looked around and there was an interview with Sheridan at Rotten Tomatoes:


He had this to say regarding Wind River...

"RT: Speaking of which, a lot of people are calling this your directorial debut, but I’m seeing that you’re actually credited as a director on what appears to be a horror film called Vile, back in 2011.

"Sheridan:
[laughs] Yeah. I would say this is my feature debut. A friend of mine raised — I don’t know what he raised — 20 grand or something, and cast his buddies, and wrote this bad horror movie, that I told him not to direct. He was going to direct it and produce it, and he started and freaked out, and called and said, “Can you help me?” I said, “Yeah, I’ll try.”

"I kind of kept the ship pointed straight, and they went off and edited, and did what they did. I think it’s generous to call me the director. I think he was try to say thank you, in some way. It was an excellent opportunity to point a camera and learn some lessons that actually benefited me on Wind River."
A credit is a credit and the film was released. It's on DVD and Blu Ray and is available to stream.
 

Jake Lipson

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JoeStemme

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The Academy has moved Barbie from Best Original Screenplay as submitted by Warner Bros. to Best Adapted Screenplay. The WGA has determined it is original for the purposes of their guild awards.

As it should have been for the start. No long history of the doll. No screenplay.
 

Wayne_j

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The academy has long put any screenplay based on anything in adapted. Even if it is a doll without a story.
 

JoeStemme

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Barbie has a story. Actually lots of them - and tons of them are represented in this screenplay.

A no brainer ruling.
 

Joe Wong

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With the Golden Globes this Sunday, I found it interesting that 3 of the Best Picture (non-English language) noms are also nom'd for Best Picture (Drama).

Anatomy of a Fall
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest


It'll be interesting to see

1. whether one of these 3 films wins the non-English Globe (it should, as the other 3 non-English noms aren't nom'd for Musical/Comedy)

2. if one of these 3 wins the Best Picture (Drama), then it should also win the non-English
 

JoeStemme

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Golden Globes don't mean anymore (if they ever really did), but this does look like an Oppenheimer vs Poor Things matchup with Barbie and Killers Of The Flower Moon as contenders.
 

Joe Wong

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SAG nominations

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a supporting role
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
Penélope Cruz, “Ferrari”
Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Outstanding performance by a male actor in a supporting role
Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
Willem Dafoe, “Poor Things”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Outstanding performance by a female actor in a leading role
Annette Bening, “Nyad”
Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Margot Robbie, “Barbie”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
Outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
Outstanding cast in a motion picture
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer



Outstanding performance by a female actor in a television movie or limited series
Uzo Aduba, “Painkiller”
Kathryn Hahn, “Tiny Beautiful Things”
Brie Larson, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Bel Powley, “A Small Light”
Ali Wong, “Beef”

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a television movie or limited series
Matt Bomer, “Fellow Travelers”
Jon Hamm, “Fargo”
David Oyelowo, “Lawmen: Bass Reeves”
Tony Shalhoub, “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie”
Steven Yeun, “Beef”

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a comedy series
Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso”

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a comedy series
Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”

Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a comedy series
Abbott Elementary
Barry
The Bear
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a drama series
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”
Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
Sarah Snook, “Succession”

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a drama series
Brian Cox, “Succession”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”

Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a drama series
The Crown
The Gilded Age
The Last of Us
The Morning Show
Succession


Outstanding action performance by a stunt ensemble in a motion picture
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
John Wick Chapter 4
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Outstanding action performance by a stunt ensemble in a television series
Ahsoka
Barry
Beef
The Last of Us
The Mandalorian
 

Jake Lipson

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Have two Best Picture/Best Director Oscar nominated films ever open on the same day?
Off the top of my head, Les Miserables and Django Unchained both opened on Christmas Day 2012. They were both nominated for Best Picture, but not Best Director.

There have probably been other Best Picture nominees that have opened on the same day, especially near the end of the year when it seems like the studios put out a bunch of awards contenders. It's very possible that some of them were nominated for both awards, although I'm too lazy to actually go look it up.
 
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Joe Wong

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Not sure how many saw the Critics’ Choice tonight, but I thought the following were surprises in terms of going against (what I thought were) general expectations:

Best Actress: Emma Stone, over Lily Gladstone. (I do believe Emma’s performance was better, but Lily’s would have been worthy as well).
Best Actor: Paul Giamatti, over Cillian Murphy
 

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