General Discussion 2024 (film year 2023) Oscar Pre-Nominations Discussion and Predictions (1 Viewer)

[JoeStemme]

Starting this up before the nominations are announced as the big Awards films are starting to roll out with KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON, THE HOLDOVERS, THE KILLER etc. out in theaters.

Of course, BARBENHEIMER dominated the attention pre-fall. Along with PAST LIVES.

Any other favorites or contenders released yet on your radar?

Discuss.

 

[John Sparks]

BARBIE wins everything except OPPENHEIMER wins for Best Makeup and Hairstyling...

 

[Keith Cobby]

Nolan wins best director, Murphy wins best actor.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I think it's so weird that publications like Variety and Deadline and so forth are still writing about the awards season like everything is normal and nobody is on strike. I know everyone is hopeful that the strike will end soon, but it isn't over until it's over. There's no way ABC would air the Oscars if stars of the nominated films are on strike and won't show up. I realize the Oscars are scheduled for March 10, but a lot of things need to happen to get us to the ceremony, and everything is still up in the air right now.

All that being said, my vote would be for Across the Spider-Verse as Best Picture. I don't actually have a vote to give, but that would be it if I did. I have no expectation that they will actually nominate this, but I would. I think it is just so beautifully crafted on every level.

 

[JoeStemme]

My under the radar fave from early this year would be HOW TO BLOW UP A PIPELINE, but that's likely more an Indie Spirit award thing than Oscar unfortunately

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I'm sticking with my thought "Oppy" will score big.

"Killers of the Flower Moon" offers competition, but now that I've seen it, I don't think it'll resonate that strongly with voters.

"Napoleon" will have a shot if it's actually good - which is no sure thing given how erratic Ridley Scott can be. He's made plenty of movies that looked like they'd be great but weren't.

If "Napoleon" is a truly strong film, he could swipe the prize from Nolan due to sentiment. Ridley's got a lot fewer movies in his future than Chris does so he may get the award as that "last shot" for him.

But not if the movie's another misfire.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Ridley's got a lot fewer movies in his future than Chris does so he may get the award as that "last shot" for him.

Except that it's not his last shot. He was in production on Gladiator 2 before the strike shut it down. Considering that its predecessor won Best Picture, I would assume that movie will at least get the Academy's attention.

 

[JoeStemme]

Caught up with THE KILLER and PRISCILLA in theaters. Both aren't bad, but I don't see much in the way of awards play with them. If there were a category for Best Use Of Music, Coppola's choices would be in line for a nomination.

THE HOLDOVERS is a different story. Best Picture, Giamatti, Randolph (Supp. Actress), the script and Payne for Direction are all strong nomination possibles here.

 

[Wayne_j]

My favorites of this year are Air, Oppenheimer, and The Holdovers.

 

[TravisR]

If "Napoleon" is a truly strong film, he could swipe the prize from Nolan due to sentiment. Ridley's got a lot fewer movies in his future than Chris does so he may get the award as that "last shot" for him.

But not if the movie's another misfire.

No doubt I'm in the minority with this thought but as far as I'm concerned, Ridley Scott pretty much makes nothing but misfires and people still think he walks on water so if Napoleon is bad, I don't think that necessarily dims his Oscar chances.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

Except that it's not his last shot. He was in production on Gladiator 2 before the strike shut it down. Considering that its predecessor won Best Picture, I would assume that movie will at least get the Academy's attention.

I didn't mean literal last shot.

And counterpoint: "Silence of the Lambs" but "Hannibal" - directed by one R. Scott - got terrible reviews.

So just because Ridley's behind the wheel of a sequel to a BP winner doesn't mean nuttin'.

Yes, I know "SotL" wasn't Scott's baby, but it "Hannibal" was still a much hyped sequel.

And that was back when one could argue Ridley was at/close to the top of his game.

IMO, "Martian" is the only pretty good movie he's made in years.

 

[TravisR]

IMO, "Martian" is the only pretty good movie he's made in years.

Decades. Though I will say that I loved The Martian.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

As an aside, I'm vaguely surprised to see how few BP winners boasted sequels over the last 40 years.

Unless I missed something:

-Gladiator (in process)
-Silence of the Lambs
-Terms of Endearment

("LOTR: ROTK" was a sequel but it ended that series.)

Not common before that, but more frequent - especially in the 70s, where 5 of the 10 winners inspired sequels.

 

[Jake Lipson]

So just because Ridley's behind the wheel of a sequel to a BP winner doesn't mean nuttin'.

I think it means most Academy members will prioritize watching it. That's all. Obviously, the success of the original won't help if it ends up being lousy. He'll have to deliver the goods. But it will get seen.

 

[Colin Jacobson]

I think it means most Academy members will prioritize watching it. That's all. Obviously, the success of the original won't help if it ends up being lousy. He'll have to deliver the goods. But it will get seen.

But I think Ridley's name sells to Academy members anyway,

Just don't think "Gladiator" being a sequel to a BP winner makes any difference in terms of its Oscar chances.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Jimmy Kimmel will be back as host.

Jimmy Kimmel to Host 2024 Oscars Ceremony

Jimmy Kimmel is returning to host the Oscars 2024 ceremony.

variety.com

 

[Winston T. Boogie]

It's a strong year, I think.

Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Napoleon
The Zone of Interest

I don't think Barbie deserves a Best Picture nomination but it probably gets one. If it wins, well, kind of ridiculous but hey, it's the Oscars.

 

[Jake Lipson]

Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Napoleon
The Zone of Interest

Are you talking about Best Picture here? Because that's five films. There is a fixed number of ten nominees for Best Picture.

 

[jayembee]

No doubt I'm in the minority with this thought but as far as I'm concerned, Ridley Scott pretty much makes nothing but misfires and people still think he walks on water so if Napoleon is bad, I don't think that necessarily dims his Oscar chances.

IMO, "Martian" is the only pretty good movie he's made in years.

Back in the day, when Scott had fewer titles in his filmography, a good percentage of them were good-or-great films. And having titles like The Duellists, Alien, Blade Runner, and Thelma and Louise in his early filmography gave him a lot of cred.

The more he's made, the lower his percentage of hits gets. Prior to The Martian, I either haven't liked or been interested in seeing anything of his since Black Hawk Down.

(Well, I really, really liked the first season of his streaming series Raised by Wolves, but never watched the second season after it was unceremoniously dumped.)

It's a strong year, I think.

Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Napoleon
The Zone of Interest

I don't think Barbie deserves a Best Picture nomination but it probably gets one. If it wins, well, kind of ridiculous but hey, it's the Oscars.

I get that you're excited about Napoleon, but shouldn't you wait until you've actually seen it to judge whether it should get a BP nomination? Frankly, from what I've seen so far, it's impressive to look it, but I'm not convinced it'll be more than an overwrought historical drama.

 

[Jake Lipson]

I get that you're excited about Napoleon, but shouldn't you wait until you've actually seen it to judge whether it should get a BP nomination?

The Zone of Interest from Winston's list isn't out yet either.

That being said, of course there are always films that are expected to be contenders in advance of their release based on their pedigree. Napoleon falls into that category. It's a historical epic which the Academy has demonstrated that they like from a prominent and well-respected director.

But it works both ways. Everything Everywhere All At Once wasn't on anybody's lists for Best Picture before it opened. And even though Greta Gerwig's previous two films were both Best Picture nominees, so she clearly has caught the Academy's attention in the past, most people don't seem to have expected Barbie to be a contender before it came out either. Now, it is one. So, really, awards forecasting is a crapshoot most of the time.