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The downside to fragmentation (1 Viewer)

ManW_TheUncool

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Originally Posted by Sam Posten /t/311159/the-downside-to-fragmentation/90#post_3934850
Here's the thing tho Man-Fai: the carriers don't have incentive to keep carrying dumbphones. Eventually everything will be IP based, maybe not this year or next but don't doubt that it will happen.
Bits is bits. And keeping ties to legacy tech is expensive.
Will there still be people who pine for non smartphones? Sure just as there are still people who want vinyl records or film based photography, but eventually the economies of scale will push the carriers to tell those people tough.

That's the thing. IF-and-when the telcos finally bring the total cost of ownership/usage for the customer down very near where it is for today's non-smartphones, then sure. That might mean they'll need to allow people to go w/ either no data plan or a super-cheap minimal/nominal one at some point. And that's basically what I was pointed out as the main thing that's keeping most of the remaining holdouts from switching -- well, they can probably also just add some sort of "auto" (possibly locked) mode to certain smartphones for technophobes, et al. and maybe let those be the ones w/ no data plans required.

But we're not there yet.

_Man_
 

Sam Posten

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Take a look at this chart:
http://www.asymco.com/2012/07/02/rims-tailspin/
What's more important than RIM's tailspin on it?
Samsung is ON FIRE. And Horace didn't even mention it. Asked him to follow up and discuss that. That is impressive growth if true.
 

Sam Posten

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Probably not a concern for too many HTFers in the US, but worth being aware of:
http://thenextweb.com/asia/2012/07/08/new-android-virus-mmarketpay-a-found-on-100000-chinese-smartphones-and-in-9-app-stores/
 

mattCR

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Originally Posted by Sam Posten /t/311159/the-downside-to-fragmentation/90#post_3944286
Take a look at this chart:
http://www.asymco.com/2012/07/02/rims-tailspin/
What's more important than RIM's tailspin on it?
Samsung is ON FIRE. And Horace didn't even mention it. Asked him to follow up and discuss that. That is impressive growth if true.

This chart is a bit old, though.. it's just through Q4/2011.. (but RIMs fate is worse then this now).

I tend to agree on the fragmentation via screen sizes/multiple resolutions. There are indications there are some things that will help this, but it is a tricky battle for developers.

I think in the end RIM is done for.. if they aren't actively trying to pitch themselves to MS, Apple or Google they are stupid. Any of those three would be buyers for RIM, especially RIM's patent base with regards to in-house server management technology of MDM and device core. The devices themselves? Eh. But RIM is worth it for the patents. Other then that, they are on a fast break to death city.

Google's play with the NexusQ marks one of the dumbest concepts I've ever seen.. it's like a half bake attempt to challenge.. I don't know, XBOX? AppleTV? The problem is that it's performance is mixed, the way the OS functions as a core media OS isn't so hot, and it's play mechanism sucks. It has all of the tell tell signs of Logitech's GoogleTV attempts (which they just rolled up and threw away).

Microsoft is gambling huge on Windows8. The core concept is either going to really work.. or really not. By providing a single development base, developers for WP8 Phones know that a play mechanism exists in the Desktop OS, Tablets, Laptops, etc. That's an interesting play. But adoption.. well, let's just say the corporate world isn't going to be leaping up and down to grab Windows8 tablets or put touch screen machines out. Last I checked, I haven't seen many touch-based ERP, CAD/CAM, Accounting etc. system.
 

Sam Posten

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This does not bode well for future app development:
http://www.theverge.com/2012/7/23/3177238/dead-trigger-free-android-piracy-rate
Again, even if the reality is that the vast majority of Android owners are NOT cheap bastards and pirates, that is the perception of the Android market as a whole.
 

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Discussions about piracy issues aside, the claims made by Madfinger is this case smack of marketing more than anything else.

http://www.androidcentral.com/how-high-unbelievably-high-piracy-dead-trigger-devs-not-saying

Since they're not going to spill any hard numbers to back up their assertions, the whole thing sounds like a way to get their game into the headlines.

Two questions need to be raised: first off, this game was only .99 because there are in app purchases needed for most players to continue and finish the game. The dev has other much higher priced games in the offing -- wouldn't it be more likely that those games would be massively pirated rather than an IAP Zombie shooter? If they are making money from IAPs (which apparently some devs aren't making on iPhones) then it wouldn't be a huge step to drop from .99 to free and take in as many IAPs as they can get. I downloaded the game yesterday after hearing it was free -- prior to that, I wouldn't have even known of its existence. So that bit of publicity probably exploded the number of downloads they had (incidentally, I was not aware of the supposed reasons why it was free until today -- I will be uninstalling posthaste).

Again, there are legitimate reasons for Android devs to complain about the ecosystem -- for one thing, the scalability of apps means that it's difficult for them to release a phone and tablet version and double dip their customers like they do in iOS. I have in another post written about how Rovio is bilking customers by offering a 2.99 HD version that looks almost no different from the standard .99 version (in fact, people are complaining that the HD version has black bars unlike the SD version and is actually the inferior version).

But the bottom line with this story is that Madfinger seems quite disingenuous about their reasons for offering the game for free. I am sure they are frustrated about piracy. I'm sure it's a real issue for them and other devs. But the whole smacks of a cynical attempt to market a trojan horse game to the masses.
 

Sam Posten

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I'm with you Hanson, it does seem self serving.
But that doesn't answer the question: Is it true?
And then the killer follow up: Even if it isn't technically true, is the perception that it's true enough to damn it?
A dev I much respect had this to say about that:
Android is designed to be difficult to make money from, and the core issue is that it’s open - with the corrosive mentality that surrounds such openness.
The whole article is worth reading even if you disagree with me, and him:
http://mattgemmell.com/2012/07/23/closed-for-business/
 

Hanson

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I think this guy makes an interesting counter point about where to point the finger for piracy:

http://mattgemmell.com/2012/02/17/the-piracy-threshold/



Quote:
[*]
Piracy is a readily-fixable customer experience problem.
[*]
Piracy happens because you’re fucking people (notably, via pricing).
[*]
Piracy is your fault.

(by "you", he means developers)



On a less snarky level, here's an ACTUAL ANDROID DEV's view:



http://blog.shiftyjelly.com/2011/12/08/standing-up-for-android/





Quote:
As for Marco, how many Android apps has he made? 0 as far as we’re aware. He thinks it’s pointless, and would be a waste of his time. Would it? As someone who develops for both platforms, we’d like to delve a bit deeper here. This is for all the Marcos & Grubers of the world.

How many Android apps has Gemmell made? 0. Actually, he's only made a single iOS app. His bread and butter is writing code for other apps.

Also, he's seems to have fallen hook, line, and sinker for Madfinger's PR stunt. Sometimes it's better to think things through than to publish two wholly contradictory blog posts with a few months of each other.
 

Sam Posten

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He said he was working with Jelly and others in that reply but I haven't seen anything since then. Why not ask him? I don't use instapaper myself....
 

Sam Posten

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Instapaper for Android sales went up 600% the day the Nexus 7 arrived. It is already our most installed device (by far.)
In fact, the Nexus 7 may not just be an important new segment of the paid Android market, it may *be* the paid Android market.
jeff rock via marcos twitter
 

Hanson

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Not only do I not see anything in that article that counteracts my belief that it was all a PR stunt, it just strengthens them. They go out of their way to create a paymium game (which is as gamer friendly as charging for an ad supported game) and then properly converts to freemium, and they're still bitching about it? They have a much better case about the piracy surrounding Samurai II and Shadowgun, but they weren't looking for publicity with those games.
 

Hanson

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Hey, remember this chestnut from 2010?

Gartner Says Android to Become No. 2 Worldwide Mobile Operating System in 2010 and Challenge Symbian for No. 1 Position by 2014

Turns out they weren't bullish enough on Android. They were a bit to bearish on iOS, but that's because Symbian and RIM collapsed faster than anticipated. Android overtook Symbian at the end of 2010.

In any case, yes Sam, the sky is falling. Job will be remembered for his ideas and vision. Cook's legacy so far are two missed quarters, lawsuits, and feeding patent trolls.

The only reason Apple is releasing the new iPhone in Sept and not October as usual is their Q3 numbers are dismal.
 

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