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Microsoft Confirms they don't want HD DVD or Blu-ray to survive!?


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#21 of 160 Chuck Mayer

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Posted June 12 2007 - 10:57 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by ppltd
That makes alot of sense, doesn't it. I could not agree more.
I also agree. This *IS* the last "physical content" generation in terms of home viewing of films. Is that a surprise to anybody? That said, it might die before DVD. Or go niche until DL content is the norm.
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#22 of 160 Roberto Carlo

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Posted June 12 2007 - 11:11 AM

Quote:
I also agree. This *IS* the last "physical content" generation in terms of home viewing of films. Is that a surprise to anybody?

Well, given the abundance of broadband options that allow me to download HD media playable on my 50" monitor in the time it takes me to make a snack, of course.

I'm sorry but the guy from Microsoft seems to be stunningly unaware of (a) the bandwidth problem -- as in how long it would take to download 25 to 50 gigs of data -- and (b) the possibility that people who paid good money for their 42" or bigger televisions might want to use them to watch movies.
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#23 of 160 ppltd

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Posted June 12 2007 - 11:39 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roberto Carlo
I'm sorry but the guy from Microsoft seems to be stunningly unaware of (a) the bandwidth problem -- as in how long it would take to download 25 to 50 gigs of data --
I doubt that very much. But I am sure he is aware of the internet improvments that will be forthcoming over the next decade that should go along way of eliminating the bandwidth issues as MS will be in the forefront of much of the technology.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roberto Carlo
and (b) the possibility that people who paid good money for their 42" or bigger televisions might want to use them to watch movies.
I am not sure what you mean by this. XBox Live is currently loaded with downloadable movies, many in HD.
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#24 of 160 Ryan-G

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Posted June 12 2007 - 12:35 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
If Microsoft wanted everyone to only download movies, and wanted both formats to die, they would not have invested in HD DVD and instead would have exclusivly invested in a download service! They are just looking forward to what they think the next step will be.

No, it wasn't in their best interests, it would've actually been a disaster if they'd done that.

MS knows that they need Fios level speeds available for downloads to be feasible for the "Average person", they know it's a long way off. They also know they need more capacity server side and client side than is feasible atm. They need Terras in the hands of consumers at pretty low prices, just to address the storage issues.

MS knows they're an easy 5-10 years away from downloads being viable on any significant scale.

MS also knows that the console market is a major key, because whoever's got the most consoles is going to have the most visible download service, because Cable Providers certainly are going to demand a piece if they're forced to team up. So they need a broadband console in the living room.

Which means they needed to tank Sony this time around, rather than let them get a foot in the door. So, to put a kink in Sony's plans, they support HD-DVD, making Sony's most expensive secondary feature a weakness. People don't want to pay extra for the drive without a guarantee it'll succeed. So it impacts sales by removing the "Rationalization factor" that Sony used to great advantage with DVD.

MS knows what they're doing, they'll play this game long enough to bury the PS3 so they can get Live as visible as possible. Once that's done, they don't care who wins, as they know they need time to make Download's feasible, and they just keep Live and it's downloads visible.

This format war was never about HD-DVD vs BR, or even about Physical vs Digital. From day 1 it was about burying the PS3 so that they have good positioning in 5-10 years when Downloading is mass-market feasible, because whichever console wins will have the most visible Download service.

#25 of 160 Douglas Monce

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Posted June 12 2007 - 12:55 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by ppltd
I doubt that very much. But I am sure he is aware of the internet improvments that will be forthcoming over the next decade that should go along way of eliminating the bandwidth issues as MS will be in the forefront of much of the technology.

I am not sure what you mean by this. XBox Live is currently loaded with downloadable movies, many in HD.


Actually internet improvements are much more unlikely that solid state media. The internet as we know it right now is pretty much maxed out as far as speed goes. To get a significant improvement would mean scrapping what we have now and replacing it.

This is actually being worked on right now. They call it Internet 2. But people would have to switch over from the internet as it exists now to internet 2. Internet 2 would have access to the original internet, but only at the original internet speed. 300 million people aren't going to switch over night.

Yes xbox live has downloadable movies. But the high def content is 720p and very low bit rate. Practical 1080 high def downloads at the bit rate of HD DVD or Blu-ray (not to mention extras) are a LONG way away. Also as far as xbox goes we are talking about the difference between renting a movie and collecting movies.

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#26 of 160 Adam Gregorich

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Posted June 12 2007 - 01:06 PM

Quote:
MS knows what they're doing, they'll play this game long enough to bury the PS3 so they can get Live as visible as possible. Once that's done, they don't care who wins, as they know they need time to make Download's feasible, and they just keep Live and it's downloads visible.

I don't buy this at all either. If MS wanted to tank the PS3, they could have taken the money they have put into HD DVD an lowered the price on their console by $150. Faced with the choice of a $199 console or a $499 console that would ahve sunk the PS3. If they wanted to just push live they could have come out with a $30 mindows media extender that would have had live access.

#27 of 160 ppltd

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Posted June 12 2007 - 01:24 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Douglas Monce
Actually internet improvements are much more unlikely that solid state media.
This is certainly one viable option.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Douglas Monce
The internet as we know it right now is pretty much maxed out as far as speed goes. To get a significant improvement would me scrapping what we have now and replacing it.

This is actually being worked on right now. They call it Internet 2. But people would have to switch over from the internet as it exists now to internet 2. Internet 2 would have access to the original internet, but only at the original internet speed..
There are mumerous means of transporting HD over the wire. The technology is here today, the infrastucture is what needs the overhaul. But this will be done with or without the need for HD downloads. I believe it will be done over the next ten years. As far as scraping the hardware that runs the backbone, some yes, some no. But this is already happening.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Douglas Monce
300 million people aren't going to switch over night.
You are right, but it will happen. We did not move from Modem to Broadband overnight either, and that took a major investment from the consumer. Currently, most broadband equipment utilized by the consumer has an inharent throughput capability 10 times greater than what is currently delivered from Cable or DSL. It has a great deal of bandwidth growth built in. Most home equipment could connect to the providor at 100 Mbps but are limited by what the internet supplier can deliver. Certainly the fiber layed in most cities has capabilities well in excess of what is currently utilized.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Douglas Monce
Yes xbox live has downloadable movies. But the high def content is 720p and very low bit rate. Practical 1080 high def downloads at the bit rate of HD DVD or Blu-ray (not to mention extras) are a LONG way away. Also as far as xbox goes we are talking about the difference between renting a movie and collecting movies.

I agree that downloads will initially have their greatest impact in the rental arena, which is what I currently use it for, and the quality is quite adequate for that purpose. Whether it will replace purchased medium in the future I am not knowledgeable enough to know.
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#28 of 160 Chuck Mayer

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Posted June 12 2007 - 01:33 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan-G
MS knows what they're doing, they'll play this game long enough to bury the PS3 so they can get Live as visible as possible. Once that's done, they don't care who wins, as they know they need time to make Download's feasible, and they just keep Live and it's downloads visible.

This format war was never about HD-DVD vs BR, or even about Physical vs Digital. From day 1 it was about burying the PS3 so that they have good positioning in 5-10 years when Downloading is mass-market feasible, because whichever console wins will have the most visible Download service.
5-10 years is the NEXT console generation as well. Neither the 360 nor the PS3 will matter in 10 years. So why would MS be putting their eggs in the 360 basket in 2005?
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#29 of 160 ppltd

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Posted June 12 2007 - 01:38 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuck Mayer
5-10 years is the NEXT console generation as well. Neither the 360 nor the PS3 will matter in 10 years. So why would MS be putting their eggs in the 360 basket in 2005?
The larger the 360 basket, the larger the 720 box. imbed the 360 into the home arena, push Media Server, make downloads second nature over the next decade an MS has a lock in in the next delivery system. While drastically over simplified, it seems like a pretty sound business model to me.
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#30 of 160 Douglas Monce

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Posted June 12 2007 - 01:46 PM

Thomas,

I don't think you and I are actually all that far away from agreeing. My point is that to get the kind of quality and content that we are expecting from HD DVD and Blu-ray in a download is quite a ways off for the general public.

Right now I have the fastest connection that Cox Cable offers, and there are times when it takes me 6 hours to download a 1 hour tv show from itunes. And we aren't talking HD here. Not even SD. Its not my connection that is the problem, the bottle neck is at the itunes end.

So what happens when a new popular movie is released in HD and suddenly 20 million people are trying to download it at once. There are going to be a lot of very unhappy people when it is days if not weeks before they can even attempt to download it.

The point is physical media isn't going anywhere anytime soon and I don't think Microsoft thinks it is either. I think they are doing what they always do. They are covering all the bases. They are also priming the pump so to speak, for HD media. That way there will be more HD households by the time they are ready to really do HD download in a big way.

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#31 of 160 ppltd

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Posted June 12 2007 - 01:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Douglas Monce
Thomas,

I don't think you and I are actually all that far away from agreeing. My point is that to get the kind of quality and content that we are expecting from HD DVD and Blu-ray in a download is quite a ways off for the general public.
Doug, I agree with you. We are not very far apart from agreeing. I think the only point of difference would be the time frame. Other than that, I can find little to disagree with.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Douglas Monce
The point is physical media isn't going anywhere anytime soon and I don't think Microsoft thinks it is either. I think they are doing what they always do. They are covering all the bases. They are also priming the pump so to speak, for HD media. That way there will be more HD households by the time they are ready to really do HD download in a big way.
No argument from me here at all.
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#32 of 160 Chris S

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Posted June 12 2007 - 02:34 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Douglas Monce
The point is physical media isn't going anywhere anytime soon and I don't think Microsoft thinks it is either. I think they are doing what they always do. They are covering all the bases. They are also priming the pump so to speak, for HD media. That way there will be more HD households by the time they are ready to really do HD download in a big way.

Completely agree with this point.

Microsoft is a technology firm and they're trying to show where technology could go in the future and that they feel their company is best positioned to take advantage of that market. It would be irresponsible of them to say otherwise especially when protecting up to 10 years in the future.
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#33 of 160 Shane Martin

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Posted June 12 2007 - 03:05 PM

Guys it's called Video on Demand. Ignore the bandwidth the internet and look at what cable companies will be and are providing right now in HD.

VOD is the next generation, it'll just take a while for it to be adopted as cable infrastructures are being developed to handle it.

#34 of 160 Douglas Monce

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Posted June 12 2007 - 04:06 PM

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Originally Posted by Shane Martin
Guys it's called Video on Demand. Ignore the bandwidth the internet and look at what cable companies will be and are providing right now in HD.

VOD is the next generation, it'll just take a while for it to be adopted as cable infrastructures are being developed to handle it.


This is very true. But current cable HD is piss pour by HD DVD and Blu-ray standards. Right now there isn't enough bandwidth to deliver that high a bit rate. To do so would take up (I believe this is the number I heard but don't quote me on it) something like 12 or 15 of the current HD channels for one channel of HD DVD or Blu-ray quality. Right now there is no good way of doing that.

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#35 of 160 Ryan-G

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Posted June 12 2007 - 08:36 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
I don't buy this at all either. If MS wanted to tank the PS3, they could have taken the money they have put into HD DVD an lowered the price on their console by $150. Faced with the choice of a $199 console or a $499 console that would ahve sunk the PS3. If they wanted to just push live they could have come out with a $30 mindows media extender that would have had live access.

No guarantee of success, they needed PS3's sitting on shelves, and with BR as a "Rationalization feature", the price cut likely wouldn't matter. As long as people can look at a $450 or a $600 box, and say "Well, the BR player in there alone costs $700 and it's well worth it", the price cuts wouldn't make a significant dent in sales. They need that feature to be seen as mediocre or a liability, and the only way to do that is through HD-DVD.

Alot of people flocked to PS2 on release because of the DVD drive, they needed a format war to make sure that didn't happen again.

Quote:
5-10 years is the NEXT console generation as well. Neither the 360 nor the PS3 will matter in 10 years. So why would MS be putting their eggs in the 360 basket in 2005?

There's no guarantee there will be a next console generation, there's some pretty major problems to overcome first.

The biggest being heat dissipation given a Console's small size. The next largest being Power. The newest generation of GeForce's recommend a PS over 450w and seriously suggest getting closer to 600w. None of these things are getting any cooler either, and it doesn't look like it's going to change any time soon.

If some major development's don't occur in power reduction and heat dissipation, IMO, they won't be able to put this stuff in another console box.

Plus, IMO, MS wants the X-box to be the "Poor-man's computer" and the PC to be the media center for the more affluent. Then they'll hit you for Live, the OS, subscriptions to Office, and get you through Micro-payments and Movies/TV.

MS has a grand plan here, and it's pretty easy to see when you consider Vista, Live, the 360, and the rest. They're converging everything, and with MS, it's not for our convience(Though convient it will be).

So they lay the groundwork now, eliminate their only real competition, start converging the two formats(XNA, C#, Vista, Games for Windows, Live Anywhere), get experience with download delivery, and slowly proceed.

(This is why Intel's on their side as well, Intel stands to gain through Processor sales if MS wins. If Sony wins, and takes over the living room and becomes the "New computer!", Intel loses big.)

#36 of 160 Adam Gregorich

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Posted June 13 2007 - 01:19 AM

Quote:
(This is why Intel's on their side as well, Intel stands to gain through Processor sales if MS wins. If Sony wins, and takes over the living room and becomes the "New computer!", Intel loses big.)

Didn't MS use IBM for the chips in the 360?

#37 of 160 Chris S

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Posted June 13 2007 - 01:33 AM

VOD is just another delivery mechanism and not the death of solid state media. In my crystal ball I see all of these will competing for consumers without one being a clear and definitive winner. Wait... that sounds familiar? Posted Image
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#38 of 160 ppltd

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Posted June 13 2007 - 01:49 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
Didn't MS use IBM for the chips in the 360?
Yes it does, for both the current CPU and the new 65nm CPU that should be out soon.

Quote:
The CPUs will be made by Chartered Semiconductor in Singapore, under license from IBM and Microsoft.

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#39 of 160 Cees Alons

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Posted June 13 2007 - 02:07 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris S
VOD is just another delivery mechanism and not the death of solid state media.
Clearly wrong, wrong, wrong!

Look at recent history:

Shortly after introduction of the moving pictures, books as an entertainment medium totally disappeared from the market. Remember those "bookshops"?

Also, at the introduction of the Internet, all newspapers were totally gone within 5 years.

E-mail and memory sticks realized the totally paperless office (paper sales to offices have come to a dramatic fall since 1995, hardly any sold in fact; "letters" and "post-office" are words our children even don't know anymore).

No razor blades or shaving foam were sold anymore, let alone developed, after the successful introduction of the electric razor machine, back in the '40s of the previous century.


Cees






Posted Image

#40 of 160 Paul McElligott

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Posted June 13 2007 - 05:45 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cees Alons
Clearly wrong, wrong, wrong!

Look at recent history:

Shortly after introduction of the moving pictures, books as an entertainment medium totally disappeared from the market. Remember those "bookshops"?

Also, at the introduction of the Internet, all newspapers were totally gone within 5 years.

E-mail and memory sticks realized the totally paperless office (paper sales to offices have come to a dramatic fall since 1995, hardly any sold in fact; "letters" and "post-office" are words our children even don't know anymore).

No razor blades or shaving foam were sold anymore, let alone developed, after the successful introduction of the electric razor machine, back in the '40s of the previous century.


Cees






Posted Image
You forgot, since downloadable music came along, you can't buy a CD anywhere!!! Posted Image
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