*** Official 2004 Academy Award Prediction Thread (1 Viewer)

Here's my early guesses with a few still up between a couple choices. To be adjusted during the next month.

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Jamie Foxx - Ray

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Thomas Haden Church - Sideways

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett - The Aviator

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
The Incredibles

Achievement In Art Direction
Leminy Snicket

Achievement In Cinematography
Caleb Deschanel - The Passion Of The Christ

Achievement In Costume Design
Leminy Snicket

Achievement In Directing
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby

Best Documentary Feature
Twist of Faith

Best Documentary Short Subject
Children of Leningradsky

Achievement In Film Editing
Ray

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
Yesterday

Achievement In Makeup
Sea Inside

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Village (change of heart, leaning toward this now)
Finding Neverland

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Counting Crows (Adam Duritz, etc.), "Accidentally In Love" - Shrek 2

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Aviator

Best Animated Short Film
Ryan

Best Live Action Short Film
2 Cars, 1 Night

Achievement In Sound
The Aviator

Achievement In Sound Editing
Incredibles

Achievement In Visual Effects
Harry Potter 3

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor - Sideways

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Charlie Kaufman - Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind

.

Craig's Picks

Here we go with my picks. Some notes:

• My predicted winners are shown in red.
• My preferred winners are shown in italics.
• I attend an Oscar party every year. In categories with 5 nominees, we are required to choose 2 that won't win (we get 2 points for winners, 1 point for each non-winner we get correct). These are shown in strikethrough text.
• For the pool there we are required to predict every category, even the shorts & documentaries. These predictions are included here, and are based solely on the synopses provided on the official Oscar web site.
• Discounting the Documentary, Foreign Language & Short categories, I have seen all the major nominees except Being Julia, Maria Full Of Grace, Motorcycle Diaries, and Vera Drake.
• I have included a brief comment after each category, hopefully to explain my odder choices.
  

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
Jamie Foxx - Ray
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby

Just watched the Jamie Foxx interview with Barbara Walters, and saw the GG speech I hadn't seen before. Oh. OH. It may be last minute, but I'm jumping on the Foxx bandwagon.

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Alan Alda - The Aviator
Jamie Foxx - Collateral
Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby
Thomas Haden Church - Sideways
Clive Owen - Closer

A very tight race between Haden Church & Freeman, but I think Morgan gets his valedictory Oscar here.

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Annette Bening - Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Morena - Maria Full Of Grace
Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind

Swank joins the multiple winners club.

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett - The Aviator
Laura Linney - Kinsey
Virginia Madsen - Sideways
Sophie Okenado - Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman - Closer

Very interesting 3-way race here. I'm guessing the Academy, knowing Blanchett & Portman will be back in the future, gives this one to Madsen for what will likely be the performance of her lifetime.

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
The Incredibles
Shrek 2
Shark Tale

Are you kidding me?? This one should be by acclamation.

Achievement In Art Direction
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Phantom Of The Opera
A Very Long Engagement

Five worthy nominees make this a very tough race to call, so I'll go with the nomination leader.

Achievement In Cinematography
The Aviator
House Of Flying Daggers
The Passion Of The Christ
The Phantom Of The Opera
A Very Long Engagement

Ditto.

Achievement In Costume Design
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Ray
Troy

Among these five, Lemony Snicket really stands out as the most original entry, so I think it takes home the prize here.

Achievement In Directing
Martin Scorsese - The Aviator
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
Taylor Hackford - Ray
Alexander Payne - Sideways
Mike Leigh - Vera Drake

In a tight race, Marty edges out Clint, and receives the longest ovation of the evening.

Best Documentary Feature
Born Into Brothels
The Story of the Weeping Camel
Super Size Me
Tupac: Resurrection
Twist Of Faith

BiB is getting all the talk of late, so gotta go with it.

Best Documentary Short Subject
Autism Is A World
The Children Of Leningradsky
Hardwood
Mighty Times: The Children's March
Sister Rose's Passion

Children & Jewish issues are always popular subjects in the documentary categories. There are three docus here about childred, so they'll split votes and SRP will take it.

Achievement In Film Editing
The Aviator
Collateral
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray

This one seems pretty locked for Thelma.

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
As It Is In Heaven
The Chorus
Downfall
The Sea Inside
Yesterday

The Sea Inside seems the clear winner here, although The Chorus could surprise.

Achievement In Makeup
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion Of The Christ
The Sea Inside

Although this is one should go to PotC, there will be enough people who would never vote to give anything to Gibson's epic to throw this to Lemony Snicket

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Jan A.P. Kaczmarek - Finding Neverland
John Williams - Harry Potter And The Prisoner Of Azkaban
Thomas Newman - Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
John Debney - The Passion Of The Christ
James Newton Howard - The Village

A very tough race to call - these are all worthy entries, but none really stands out. I'm guessing this is where the Academy will throw a bone to Finding Neverland

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
"Accidentally In Love" - Shrek 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - The Motorcycle Diaries
"Believe" - The Polar Express
"Learn To Be Lonely" - The Phantom Of The Opera
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - The Chorus

This is a strange lineup. Gotta go with the one that feels the most Oscar-friendly - the lovely ballad "Believe". At least it was actually used IN the film.

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

Although big mo seems to be with MDB, I'm going with history & Seth's formula.

Best Animated Short Film
Birthday Boy
Gopher Broke
Guard Dog
Lorenzo
Ryan

Hmm, I think I'll go with the anti-war statement here.

Best Live Action Short Film
Everything In This Country Must
Little Terrorist
7:35 In The Morning
Two Cars, One Night
Wasp

Who knows?? I'll go with the one with a kid in it.

Achievement In Sound Editing
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Spider-Man 2

This one is always hard to predict, but I think The Incredibles had the most obviously impressive work.

Achievement In Sound Mixing
The Aviator
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Ray
Spider-Man 2

The music in Ray sounded great, and I think that's what voters will remember.

Achievement In Visual Effects
Harry Potter And The Prisoner Of Azkaban
I, Robot
Spider-Man 2

A tight race between Harry & Spidey. I think the hippogriff takes it for HP.

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Before Sunset
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries
Finding Neverland
Sideways

Another tight race. I think some minor issues in MDB (some poorly-drawn minor characters) will tilt voters to Sideways.

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
The Incredibles
Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind
The Aviator
Hotel Rwanda
Vera Drake

I think this is close to a lock. Charlie Kaufman finally wins his Oscar here.

Final Counts

The Aviator: 5
Million Dollar Baby: 3
Sideways: 2
The Incredibles: 2
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events: 2
Finding Neverland: 1
Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind: 1
Harry Potter & The Prisoner Of Azkaban: 1
The Polar Express: 1
Ray: 1
The Sea Inside: 1

Plus the 4 winners of the Documentary & Short categories.

Gut reaction:

Based on the book "Blink", this should be my best pass

I have seen almost NONE of these films, so this is based on what I've read, or how I think things play out. None of this is who I want...I haven't seen nearly enough ot have favorites (except The Incredibles).

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening - BEING JULIA

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
Natalie Portman - CLOSER

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES

ART DIRECTION
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA

CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE AVIATOR
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
(I expect The Aviator, but...)

COSTUME DESIGN
FINDING NEVERLAND

DIRECTING
THE AVIATOR

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BORN INTO BROTHELS

FILM EDITING
COLLATERAL

MAKEUP
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

MUSIC (SCORE)
FINDING NEVERLAND

MUSIC (SONG)
"Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA

SOUND EDITING
THE INCREDIBLES

SOUND MIXING
THE INCREDIBLES

VISUAL EFFECTS
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

BEST PICTURE
THE AVIATOR

Predictions (As of February 27th)

77th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS NOMINEES

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES

ART DIRECTION
THE AVIATOR

CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE AVIATOR

COSTUME DESIGN
THE AVIATOR

DIRECTING
THE AVIATOR

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
SUPER SIZE ME

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
HARDWOOD

FILM EDITING
THE AVIATOR

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
THE SEA INSIDE

MAKEUP
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

MUSIC (SCORE)
FINDING NEVERLAND

MUSIC (SONG)
"Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS

BEST PICTURE
THE AVIATOR

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
BIRTHDAY BOY

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
LITTLE TERRORIST

SOUND EDITING
SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING
THE AVIATOR

VISUAL EFFECTS
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

Here are my predictions for what will win:

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will Win: Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Alternate: Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Alternate: Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will Win: Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Alternate: Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Alternate: Natalie Portman - CLOSER

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will win: THE INCREDIBLES
Alternate: SHREK 2

ART DIRECTION
Will win: THE AVIATOR
Alternate: THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: THE AVIATOR
Alternate: HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS

COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: THE AVIATOR
Alternate: LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS

DIRECTING
Will Win: Clint Eastwood for MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Alternate: Martin Scorsese for THE AVIATOR

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: BORN INTO BROTHELS
Alternate: THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL

FILM EDITING
Will win: MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Alternate: THE AVIATOR

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: THE SEA INSIDE
Alternate: DOWNFALL

MAKEUP
Will Win: THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
Alternate: LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS

MUSIC (SCORE)
Will Win: HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
Alternate: THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

MUSIC (SONG)
Will Win: "Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
Alternate: "Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Alternate: THE AVIATOR

SOUND EDITING
Will Win: THE INCREDIBLES
Alternate: SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING
Will Win: THE AVIATOR
Alternate: SPIDER-MAN 2

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: SPIDER-MAN 2
Alternate: HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Will win: MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Alternate: SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Will Win: ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
Alternate:THE INCREDIBLES

Haven't seen any and probably won't so no guess unless I should:

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
AUTISM IS A WORLD
THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
HARDWOOD
MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH
SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
BIRTHDAY BOY
GOPHER BROKE
GUARD DOG
LORENZO
RYAN

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
LITTLE TERRORIST
7:35 IN THE MORNING
TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
WASP

Here's my initial guess based on the actual noms (with M$B being my personal favorite for most of the categories):

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jamie Foxx - RAY
(Rooting for Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES

ART DIRECTION
THE AVIATOR

CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

COSTUME DESIGN
THE AVIATOR

DIRECTING
MILLION DOLLAR BABY

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BORN INTO BROTHELS

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
AUTISM IS ANOTHER WORLD

FILM EDITING
MILLION DOLLAR BABY

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
THE SEA INSIDE

MAKEUP
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS

MUSIC (SCORE)
FINDING NEVERLAND

MUSIC (SONG)
"BELIEVE" - THE POLAR EXPRESS

BEST PICTURE
MILLION DOLLAR BABY

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
RYAN

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST

SOUND EDITING
SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING
THE AVIATOR

VISUAL EFFECTS
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

If I were choosing based on purely subjective favorites (since I haven't seen the movies), here goes:

BEST PICTURE
Sideways

DIRECTING
Sideways

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR


I am SO glad that Kinsey got diddley.

Some of these are educated guesses, but I had to skip Best Foreign Language Film, Best Documentary Feature/Short Subject, Best Short Film - Animated/Live Action.

Best Motion Picture of the Year:
Sideways

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Johnny Depp for Finding Neverland

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Kate Winslet for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Morgan Freeman for Million Dollar Baby

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Cate Blanchett for The Aviator

Best Achievement in Directing:
Alexander Payne for Sideways

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen:
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry, Pierre Bismuth

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published:
Sideways - Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor

Best Achievement in Cinematography:
The Passion of the Christ - Caleb Deschanel

Best Achievement in Editing:
The Aviator - Thelma Schoonmaker

Best Achievement in Art Direction:
Un long dimanche de fiançailles - Aline Bonetto

Best Achievement in Costume Design:
The Aviator - Sandy Powell

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score:
The Village - James Newton Howard

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song:
The Phantom of the Opera - Andrew Lloyd Webber, Charles Hart ("Learn To Be Lonely")

Best Achievement in Makeup:
The Passion of the Christ - Keith VanderLaan, Christien Tinsley

Best Achievement in Sound:
The Incredibles - Randy Thom, Gary Rizzo, Doc Kane

Best Achievement in Sound Editing:
The Incredibles - Michael Silvers, Randy Thom

Best Achievement in Visual Effects:
I, Robot - John Nelson, Andy Jones, Erik Nash, Joe Letteri

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year:
The Incredibles - Brad Bird

I never pick who I think is going to win, just who I would vote for...

77th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS NOMINEES

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Laura Linney - KINSEY

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES

ART DIRECTION
THE AVIATOR

CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

COSTUME DESIGN
THE AVIATOR

DIRECTING
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
SUPER SIZE ME

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

FILM EDITING
THE AVIATOR

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
THE CHORUS
DOWNFALL
THE SEA INSIDE
YESTERDAY

MAKEUP
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

MUSIC (SCORE)
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

MUSIC (SONG)
"Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS

BEST PICTURE
MILLION DOLLAR BABY

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
LORENZO

SOUND EDITING
THE POLAR EXPRESS

SOUND MIXING
THE POLAR EXPRESS

VISUAL EFFECTS
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

These are my picks for who is going to win:

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Clive Owen - CLOSER

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Natalie Portman - CLOSER

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES

ART DIRECTION
THE AVIATOR

CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

COSTUME DESIGN
THE AVIATOR

DIRECTING
MILLION DOLLAR BABY

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
SUPER SIZE ME

FILM EDITING
THE AVIATOR

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
THE SEA INSIDE

MAKEUP
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

MUSIC (SCORE)
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

BEST PICTURE
THE AVIATOR

SOUND EDITING
THE INCREDIBLES

VISUAL EFFECTS
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
MILLION DOLLAR BABY

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
HOTEL RWANDA

Of films with three or more nods, I've not seen Ray, Hotel Rwanda, Polar Express, Vera Drake, Phantom of the Opera:

Bold is who I think will win, Red is who I'd vote for

BEST PICTURE
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
Taylor Hackford - Ray
Mike Leigh - Vera Drake
Alexander Payne - Sideways
Martin Scorcese - The Aviator

BEST ACTOR
Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby (he didn't win for Unforgiven but got Picture and Director then)
Jamie Foxx - Ray

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening - Being Julia
Catalina Sandeno Moreno - Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Alda - The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church - Sideways
Jamie Foxx - Collateral
Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen - Closer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett - The Aviator
Laura Linney - Kinsey
Virginia Madsen - Sideways
Sophie Okonedo - Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman - Closer

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of The Spotless Mind
Hotel Rwanda
The Incredibles
Vera Drake

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Before Sunset
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries
Sideways

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
As It Is
The Chorus
Downfall
The Sea Inside
Yesterday

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Born Into Brothels
The Story of the Weeping Camel
Super Size Me
Tupac: Resurrection
Twist of Faith

ANIMATED FILM
The Incredibles
Shark Tale
Shrek 2

ART DIRECTION
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Aviator
House of Flying Daggers
The Passion of the Christ
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement

COSTUME DESIGN
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Ray
Troy

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Autism is a World
The Children of Leningradsky
Hardwood
Mighty Times: The Children's March
Sister Rose's Passion

FILM EDITING
The Aviator
Collateral
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray

MAKEUP
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion of the Christ
The Sea Inside

MUSIC (SCORE)
Finding Neverland
Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion of the Christ
The Village

MUSIC (SONG)
"Accidentally In Love" - Shrek 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - The Motorcycle Diaries
"Believe" - The Polar Express
"Learn To Be Lonely" - The Phantom of the Opera
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - The Chorus

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Birthday Boy
Gopher Broke
Guard Dog
Lorenzo
Ryan

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Everything in this Country Must
Little Terrorist
7:35 in the Morning
Two Cars, One Night
Wasp

SOUND EDITING
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Spider-Man 2

SOUND MIXING
The Aviator
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Ray
Spider-Man 2

VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban
I, Robot
Spider-Man 2

BEST PICTURE
The Aviator

DIRECTING
Martin Scorsese - The Aviator

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jamie Foxx - Ray

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Clive Owen - Closer

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Natalie Portman - Closer

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Million Dollar Baby

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
The Aviator

ART DIRECTION
The Aviator

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Aviator

COSTUME DESIGN
The Aviator

FILM EDITING
The Aviator

MAKEUP
The Passion of the Christ

MUSIC SCORE
The Passion of the Christ

SOUND EDITING
Spider-Man 2

SOUND MIXING
The Aviator

VISUAL EFFECTS
I, Robot

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Incredibles

I changed three of my predictions after seeing Million Dollar Baby:

Changed Best Actor to Clint Eastwood
Changed Best Supporting Actor to Morgan Freeman
Changed Best Score to Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban.

Finally, I have a breather from work and other things making my life so hectic, I can catch up with my Oscar stuff and the Top 10 thread.

Given the dearth of films in my 2004 Film List, I'm going to have to defer many of my guesses this year to the general consensus. I've actually only seen 2 of the 5 contenders - pretty pathetic, but I do hope to catch Ray tonight to confirm Jamie Foxx's performance. If I'm lucky I'll get to see The Aviator, but I know I won't get to see Finding Neverland.

Okay, here are my predictions (list taken directly from Oscars.com) - expected winners in red, my wish in italics (mine only if applicable; given how few films I've seen, there aren't a lot I can comfortably claim):

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Jamie Foxx - RAY

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Clive Owen - CLOSER

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
Laura Linney - KINSEY
Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA (given what I heard, how could you not?)
Natalie Portman - CLOSER

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
THE INCREDIBLES
SHARK TALE
SHREK 2

ART DIRECTION
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS (I admit a certain guilty desire to see this win)
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE AVIATOR
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS - by far this should win, but I predict it will be overlooked
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

COSTUME DESIGN
THE AVIATOR
FINDING NEVERLAND
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS - pretty good, but I'm betting FN did better
RAY
TROY

DIRECTING
THE AVIATOR - It's gonna be a Scorsese night
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
VERA DRAKE

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BORN INTO BROTHELS (If I hadn't heard so many iffy reviews, the mere subject matter would make this one a lock)
THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL
SUPER SIZE ME
TUPAC: RESURRECTION
TWIST OF FAITH

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
AUTISM IS A WORLD
THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
HARDWOOD
MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH
SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

FILM EDITING
THE AVIATOR
COLLATERAL
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
THE CHORUS
DOWNFALL
THE SEA INSIDE
YESTERDAY

MAKEUP
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE SEA INSIDE

MUSIC (SCORE)
FINDING NEVERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
THE VILLAGE (huh?!)

MUSIC (SONG)
"Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
"Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS
"Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA (I think the Academy will want to give this darling-subject at least one reward)
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - THE CHORUS

BEST PICTURE
THE AVIATOR (Like I said, it's a Scorsese night)
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
RAY
SIDEWAYS
(I have only seen 2 of them and wasn't impressed enough with either to feel it deserves BP above the others; my friend has seen Ray and I'll side with him on not thinking it should get BP. That leaves FN and Aviator - I'll pass on giving my wish.)

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
BIRTHDAY BOY
GOPHER BROKE
GUARD DOG
LORENZO
RYAN

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
LITTLE TERRORIST
7:35 IN THE MORNING
TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
WASP

SOUND EDITING
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS
SPIDER-MAN 2

SOUND MIXING
THE AVIATOR
THE INCREDIBLES
THE POLAR EXPRESS - If you saw this in the theater I saw this in, you would give this the award right here and now. Phenomenal use of sound.
RAY
SPIDER-MAN 2

VISUAL EFFECTS
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
I, ROBOT
SPIDER-MAN 2

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
BEFORE SUNSET
FINDING NEVERLAND
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
SIDEWAYS

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
THE AVIATOR - the only category Scorsese is gonna lose, and it won't even be close.
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
HOTEL RWANDA
THE INCREDIBLES
VERA DRAKE

Pick 1: who is going to win
pick 2:who I want to win

Picture: "The Aviator," "Finding Neverland," "Million Dollar Baby," "Ray," "Sideways."
pick 1:Million Dollar Baby
pick 2The Aviator

Director: Martin Scorsese, "The Aviator"; Clint Eastwood (news), "Million Dollar Baby"; Taylor Hackford, "Ray"; Alexander Payne, "Sideways"; Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake."
Pick 1:Clint Eastwood
Pick 2:Martin Scorsese

Actor: Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"; Johnny Depp (news), "Finding Neverland"; Leonardo DiCaprio (news), "The Aviator"; Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"; Jamie Foxx (news), "Ray."
Pick 1:Jamie Foxx
Pick 2: Jamie Foxx

Actress: Annette Bening (news), "Being Julia"; Catalina Sandino Moreno, "Maria Full of Grace"; Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"; Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"; Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind."
Pick 1:Hilary Swank
Pick 2:Hilary Swank

Supporting actor: Alan Alda (news), "The Aviator"; Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"; Morgan Freeman (news), "Million Dollar Baby"; Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways"; Clive Owen, "Closer."
Pick 1:Morgan Freeman
Pick 2:Jamie Fox

Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (news), "The Aviator"; Laura Linney, "Kinsey"; Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"; Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda"; Natalie Portman, "Closer."
Pick 1:Laura Linny
Pick 2:Cate Blanchett

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy (news) and Ethan Hawke (news), "Before Sunset"; David Magee, "Finding Neverland"; Paul Haggis, "Million Dollar Baby"; Jose Rivera, "The Motorcycle Diaries"; Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, "Sideways."
Pick 1.Million Dollar Baby
Pick 2.Sideways


Writing (Original Screenplay): John Logan, "The Aviator"; Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry and Pierre Bismuth, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"; Brad Bird, "The Incredibles"; Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake."
Pick 1.Aviator
Pick 2.Incredibles

Foreign Film: "As It Is In Heaven" (Sweden), "The Chorus (Les Choristes)" (France), "Downfall" (Germany), "The Sea Inside" (Spain), "Yesterday" (South Africa).
Pick 1: As it is in Heaven
Pick 2: Yesterday


Animated Feature Film: "The Incredibles," "Shark Tale," "Shrek 2." Animated Short Film: "Birthday Boy," "Gopher Broke," "Guard Dog," "Lorenzo," "Ryan."
Pick 1:Incredibles
Pick 2:Incredibles

Live Action Short Film: "Everything in This Country Must," "Little Terrorist," "7:35 in the Morning (7:35 de la Manana)," "Two Cars, One Night," and "Wasp."
Pick 1:Little terrorist
Pick 2:Two Cars,One Night, and wasp

Documentary: "Born Into Brothels," "The Story of the Weeping Camel," "Super Size Me," "Tupac: Resurrection," "Twist of Faith."
Pick 1: Super Size Me
Pick 2:Super Size Me

Documentary Short Subject: "Autism Is a World," "The Children of Leningradsky," "Hardwood," "Mighty Times: The Children's March," "Sister Rose's Passion."
1.Autism of the world
2.Autism of the world

Art Direction: "The Aviator," "Finding Neverland," "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events," "The Phantom of the Opera," "A Very Long Engagement."
1.Aviator
2.Aviator

Cinematography: "The Aviator," "House of Flying Daggers," "The Passion of the Christ," "The Phantom of the Opera," "A Very Long Engagement."
1.Passion of the Christ
2.Passion of the Christ

Film Editing: "The Aviator," "Collateral," "Finding Neverland," "Million Dollar Baby," "Ray."
1.Collateral
2.Aviator




Costume Design: "The Aviator," "Finding Neverland," "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events," "Ray," "Troy."
1.Ray
2.The Aviator
Makeup: "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events," "The Passion of the Christ," "The Sea Inside."
1.The Passion of the Christ
2.The Passion of the Christ
Original Score: "Finding Neverland," "Harry Potter (news - web sites) and the Prisoner of Azkaban," "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events," "The Passion of the Christ," "The Village."
1.Harry Potter
2.Passion of the Christ
Original Song: "Accidentally In Love" from "Shrek 2," "Al Otro Lado Del Rio" from "The Motorcycle Diaries," "Believe" from "The Polar Express," "Learn To Be Lonely" from "The Phantom of the Opera," "Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" from "The Chorus (Les Choristes)."
1.Shrek 2
2.Shrek 2
Sound Editing: "The Incredibles," "The Polar Express," "Spider-Man 2."
1.Spider-man 2
2.Spider-man 2

Sound Mixing: "The Aviator," "The Incredibles," "The Polar Express," "Ray," "Spider-Man 2."
pick 1: The Aviator
pick 2: Spider-man 2

Visual Effects: "Harry Potter and the Prince of Azkaban," "I, Robot," "Spider-Man 2."
pick 1:I,robot
pick 2:Spider-man 2
___

Best Picture
Will win: Million Dollar Baby
Should win: The Aviator

Best Actress
Will win: Hilary Swank
Should win: Hilary Swank

Best Director (this will be CLOSE):
Will win: Martin Scorsese
Should win: Martin Scorsese

Best Supporting Actor:
Will win: Clive Owen (next up James Bond)
Should win: Clive Owen

Best Supporting Actress:
Will win: Virginia Madsen (probably the big surprise, you know they want to give Sideways more than just best screenplay (which is a lock))
Should win: Virginia Madsen

Best Actor: Irellevant discussion as Jamie Foxxxxxxxxxxxxx has already won
Should win: Eastwood by a mile

Roger Ebert predicts the Oscars

Outguess Ebert Contest