OK, make your 2002 box office predictions! Spiderman, AOTC, HPATCOS, TTT... (1 Viewer)

[Larry Sutliff]

SPIDERMAN-250 Million

AOTC-375 Million

MINORITY REPORT-150 Million

MIB2-175 Million

AUSTIN POWERS 3-160 Million

SCOOBY DOO-100 Million

HPATCOS-310 Million

TTT-250 Million

 

[Paul W]

Sorry Larry,

There aint no way in hell Spidey is going to pull the same dollars as TTT.

No way; no how.

 

[Larry Sutliff]

Paul,

We'll see. I may have underestimated TTT, but I think a lot of folks are underestimating SPIDEY. We'll all know the answer very soon!

 

[Paul W]

Of course, I'll be there rooting for Spidey. I think AOTC is goign to kill spidey's numbers tho (except for the small bump that will result from the sold out AOTC showings).
We'll see.

 

[Tim Glover]

I just don't understand how people can credibly say that everyone...people...SW fans...hated The Phantom Menace when it made $435 million in the US alone. I know, I know the repeat viewings by the hardcore fans. I went several times myself. But there is no way that huge total was achieved by just the repeat viewings or the pre-release hype. Many movies have had major hype and after the big opening week it really fizzles out. The Lost World made nearly half it's overall take during the first 10 days. Word of mouth is really strong and if fans really hated TPM, it would have petered out and it didn't. I realize I am setting myself up for a war and don't want that but have been holding this post back for a few days.

AOTC probably won't make those numbers for alot of reasons. One, it looks like it will be darker and more intense and this will leave out the younger lads who liked Jar Jar. Remember he was the favorite character for the 9-13 year old crowd. I'm betting on about $350 million. I hope it does more.

 

[Terrell]

Another good point Tim. I've always maintained that a lot of people liked TPM, including me. I liked it a lot. Sure it had some flaws, but I've always said that the films didn't have the legs it did by everyone hating it. Although there are millions of Star Wars fans, I don't think strictly hardcore fans alone giving it repeat viewings are enough to propel it to a huge box office. Consider that Harry Potter opened almost 30 million higher than TPM on it's opening weekend, and it still made 100 million dollars less than TPM. That should tell you the kind of legs it had.

Yes, there were many disappointed. But there were also many who liked it. Some who loved it. I liked it a lot. Not quite loved, but I liked it as much as you can without loving it. I think AOTC will be easily superior to TPM in every respect. In the end, box office matters little, as long as the film is good. AOTC is gonna make huge money regardless.

 

[Dave H]

I think that AOTC will get better reviews and more positive "word of mouth" than Phantom Menace. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 400 million.

 

[Tom Ryan]

I really don't think AOTC is going to make near as much as TPM.

First of all, while not everyone HATED it, there is certainly a lot of backlash against the poorer aspects of Episode I. This will cost a loss of gross, at least compared to what AOTC's gross might be if TPM was the greatest Star Wars film yet.

Second, look at ESB. It had a lot of the same angles as AOTC; a big romance section, lots more action, ratcheting everything up a notch. But it failed to outgross ANH, despite the fact that the original Star Wars film was one of the biggest and most successful films of all time; if any sequel was going to outgross the original, it would've been ESB.

These factors together with the aforementioned "sequels don't make more than the originals" rule gives AOTC an estimated gross of about $350 million, a sizable sum but nearly $100 million short of TPM's final gross.

-Tom

 

[Brian Harnish]

My predictions:
Star Wars: Episode II -- I think this will either meet or exceed everyone's expectations. As one director said (I do not remember who, specifically): "Every director has at least one bad movie in them." TPM was Lucas' bad large-scale film, IMO. Hopefully Episode II will be better than Episode I (as seems to be the general prediction). However, I will be conservative on this and say that EpII will probably gross $325 - 350 million. It could go as high as $375 mil. if the installed fanbase is impressed with the film.
Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers -- I really liked the first film, despite a few glaring errors when contrasted with the book. There is no doubt in my mind that the installed fanbase for TTT will push it to $275 million. I can see TTT reaching at least $325 mil if it garners the interest of the general public again.
Harry Potter And The Chamber of Secrets -- I loved the first film. It was intended to be an almost exact retelling of the first book. Most individuals did not like it because of the lack of character development. One constant I noticed was that these individuals had also read the entire HP series. Most movie-goers based their opinions without realizing this fact. I predict it will do about the same as the first, but could go a little higher. With the installed fanbase rallying for more support of the film, I could see it reaching $285 million.
Spiderman -- It is difficult to predict how well this one will do in the Box Office (especially considering we only have one review thus far). If the consensus among critics is good, the film could possibly be well-received. It's a possibility that Spidey will center around the $250 million mark. I can't say whether or not it will drop off after AOTC. It will be interesting to see how these two films compete this summer.
Men In Black 2 -- I really enjoyed the first film. So if this installment is as enjoying as the first, I'll be more than happy to plunk down a few extra dollars for multiple viewings. If it can capture the interest of Joe Sixpack, I could see it reaching at least $225 million.
Scooby Doo -- The bane of my film-going existence has been horrible live-action remakes of cartoons. Why is Hollywood so intent on creating bad films when good indie films can take their place? I wasn't overly impressed with The Flintstones (in fact, I almost fell asleep through it). Why oh why does Hollywood keep churning out these malignant tumors for us to digest? I predict it will do no more than $50 million. It'll possibly sink to $20 million on a more conservative scale. With my opinion against these types of films, I predict it will do: 45 dollars and 62 cents.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

If any sequel will do close numbers to the first, I believe it's Harry Potter. I am surprised to see such changes from TSS in COS numbers. The HP movie was not a FILM event...it was a HARRY event. To it's audience, HP is bigger than the movie, and most readers care more about the 5th book than they do the 2nd movie. That said, they'll all go to the theater again to see it. And it has gained some fans. HP does not follow the same rules of cinema as do other films for the above reason.
As to AOTC, although it will likely see a numbers fall-off from 1999, I think it will make MORE overseas. Japan is a huge market, with Natalie and soon, Hayden, being VERY popular there. Trust me. I stick with $400M here, but it's worldwide may exceed TPM's. As for the TPM backlash...it did not occur when the film was in the theaters, hence the money. It simply does not hold up to multiple viewings as well as the other 3 films. As Ewan said, it's flat. To be frank, it's not terrible, it's just dull. I tried to watch it when I got the DVD, but my SO and I decided to go to bed halfway through. People were caught up in the excitement during 99's summer. The backlash will make a financial difference. Just not a HUGE one.
I didn't put down total's for the rest:
Minority Report - Last I looked, VSky, with very mixed reviews and word of mouth, still made $100M. This film has Tom, it's by Spielberg, it's less "creepy" than A.I., and it's summer Sci-Fi...$175 million.
Scooby-Doo, I am not putting it in bold. It's not even a real movie. Quick, name the last SMG, Freddie Prinze Jr., or Matthew Lillard movie to do well. As for CGI cartoons, how about Rocky and Bullwinkle? It will do decent business opening weekend. After that, it had better be damn funny. Did I mention that cast...?
AP3 - I think it was a fad, not a fashion. It'll break $100 million, but not by a lot...$115 million.
James Bond - $125 million. It's James Bond
Take care,
Chuck

 

[Terrell]

Well, there are a lot of critics that won't give a Star Wars film a great review no matter what. So if AOTC does turn out to be great, I think there will still be some critics who slam it.

 

[Chuck Mayer]

Terrell,
There are critics who slam every movie. Most professionals will evaluate SW: AOTC as it's own film, not as a SW film or a summer movie, just as a film. Because they DON'T CARE about Star Wars ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. There are as many who will praise AOTC lavishly solely for it's pedigree as there are who will lambast it for the same reasons. The reviews do not really matter to the box-office take either way.
Take care,
Chuck

 

[Terrell]

It goes both ways Chuck. And you're right, SW is critic proof when it comes to the box office. However, I expect AOTC to be very good. We'll have to wait and see. But even if it is, I'm not expecting the reviews to be overwhelmingly positive, such as 90% positive reviews. My main point being is that those films critics that didn't like the originals, the chances that they'll like AOTC is almost impossible.

 

[Mark Zimmer]

When in doubt, go with Star Wars. I'd say Attack of the Clones is a good bet for the top grosser of the year at this point. Say $385M. Not quite enough to hit $400M, due to the TPM backlash (unless, of course, Jar Jar suffers a hideously painful death, in which case we're talking Titanic numbers).

Second should be the second Potter outing, unless the fifth book comes out and severely disappoints/disillusions the fan base. But the near religious devotion of its crowd makes me think that highly unlikely. $325M, with essentially the same number of butts in seats but a little push for ticket inflation.

Two Towers I pick for 3rd at about $265M. I don't think it'll perform quite as well as Fellowship because it's neither the beginning nor the ending; a lot of moviegoers are bound to be disappointed that it has even less of an ending than Fellowship did, now that the Shelob sequence has been moved to Return of the King. Neither Clones nor Chamber should have that difficulty.

I have faith in Sam Raimi (and also in Kirsten Dunst in a wet t-shirt) to pull in a big crowd. I'm going to say $250M on this one---not the top, but big enough to start a franchise.

Minority Report has disaster written all over it. I say $40M, or about $5M less than Signs. All of that should be earned in the first two weeks and then it will completely vanish.

 

[Malcolm R]

The bane of my film-going existence has been horrible live-action remakes of cartoons. Why oh why does Hollywood keep churning out these malignant tumors for us to digest?

'Cuz some, once in a while, are successful (financially, anyway):

• Casper - $100.3M
• The Flintstones - $130.5M
• George of the Jungle - $105.3M
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $135.3M
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 - $78.6M

Of course, lots more are duds, but studios seem to think it's still worth the chance for that left-field hit.

 

[Chris]

Casper - $100.3M
The Flintstones - $130.5M
George of the Jungle - $105.3M
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles - $135.3M
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 - $78.6M
Of course, lots more are duds, but studios seem to think it's still worth the chance for that left-field hit.

Lots more duds is an understatement.
Think Dudley Do-Right.. Rocky & Bullwinkle... oh.. the list goes on
But there are the few that do work.. many of those are really animated features.. it's going from animated to live action that screws it up.

 

[David Dennison]

TTT - $310M I think this will maintain its audience from the first movie.
AOTC - $290M I smell a disappointment (again).
Harry Potter - $240 Potter has nowhere to go but down.
Spiderman - $230M Big opening weekend, but it better be decent to get over $200.
These are domestic grosses. Just my guesses...

 

[Sean Oneil]

Columbia must be banking on Spiderman being huge too. I was at the store earlier and like every friggin box of every type of Kellogs cerial had Spiderman on it. Some had different types of spiderman toys inside the box, or offers for a Spiderman CD-ROM PC game. I'm sure that there is some co-op advertising going on there, but that still has to cost a pretty penny to market your movie/character on the whole fleet of Kellogs cerials.

I'm sticking with my $286 million estimate... and feeling a little bit better about it all the time. I think this movie will prove to have some serious pull with the kiddy audience.

 

[rhett]

I think we are really over-estimating TTT. The first one had the benefit of being based on arguably the most famous trilogy of books ever made. I think it brought in a lot of people attempting to cross over and see what all the fuss is about. I think after all the curiousity subsides, the films will play well with the already interested demographic, but I can't see it enticing much more new vewiers, and there were definitely a whole lot of people who were unimpressed with the film. The remaining two LotR films will bring in some serious bank, just not in these colossal numbers everyone here is predicting.

I think the Scorpion King will sink like a stone. Maybe a 20+ opening weekend then into the dust this will go. This production has been marred by problems, and they will no doubt carry on to the box office as well.

MiB II just doesn't look like it has enough interest to pull through in light of all these large scale productions coming out. Granted the first was huge, but time is MiB's greatest enemy. Will Smith has got the failure of ALI on his shoulders, and Sonnenfeld's last two pictures have been Big Trouble (literally) and Wild Wild West. It has been 5 years since the first film, and it was little more than a well made popcorn flick, not the kind of film to generate and hold a large fan base. Moderately large opening and a disappointing 90 million wrap up is my prediction.

Minority Report is going to do much better. A.I. was more Kubrick material than Spielberg, and I don't think it is right to blame the failure of the film on Spielberg. A.I. was an ambitious film and was not traditional Hollywood fare, and therefore viewers were indifferent. Minority Report looks fresh and the new trailers are highly entertaining with some knockout action sequences. This is going to connect big at the B.O., and will easily clear $150.

This is going to be a great year at the Box Office, easily surpassing last year, and I can't wait to see how it all unfolds!

 

[Adam_S]

I think people are selling short Lilo and Stitch, I think this will be Disney's comeback film (in the traditional animated fare), and will pull in somewhere between 250 and 300 million. Treasure Planet will probably be a better FILM but won't do as well at the Box Office, probably about 150 million. But I sincerely think that Lilo and Stitch will otuperform Scooby Doo, MIB II, and Minority Report. There is some whip smart marketing for this film going on, Disney seems to have hired Pixars marketing team, and the kids I know are excited for it. I think people will be callign this a sleeper hit since recent semiduds have written off disney traditional animated fare in many people's books.

Adam