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*** Official 2004 Academy Award Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'Movies' started by Robert Crawford, Jan 24, 2005.

  1. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    This thread is the Official 2004 Academy Award Winner Prediction thread. Please, post all of your Oscar predictions in this thread. Thank you.

    Save your thread placement! Who will be first?[​IMG]

    Official 2004 Academy Award Discussion Thread.







    Crawdaddy
     
  2. Seth Paxton

    Seth Paxton Lead Actor

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    Here's my early guesses with a few still up between a couple choices. To be adjusted during the next month.

    Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
    Jamie Foxx - Ray

    Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
    Thomas Haden Church - Sideways

    Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
    Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby

    Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
    Cate Blanchett - The Aviator

    Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
    The Incredibles

    Achievement In Art Direction
    Leminy Snicket

    Achievement In Cinematography
    Caleb Deschanel - The Passion Of The Christ

    Achievement In Costume Design
    Leminy Snicket

    Achievement In Directing
    Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby

    Best Documentary Feature
    Twist of Faith

    Best Documentary Short Subject
    Children of Leningradsky

    Achievement In Film Editing
    Ray

    Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
    Yesterday

    Achievement In Makeup
    Sea Inside

    Achievement In Music (Original Score)
    Village (change of heart, leaning toward this now)
    Finding Neverland

    Achievement In Music (Original Song)
    Counting Crows (Adam Duritz, etc.), "Accidentally In Love" - Shrek 2

    Best Motion Picture Of The Year
    The Aviator

    Best Animated Short Film
    Ryan

    Best Live Action Short Film
    2 Cars, 1 Night

    Achievement In Sound
    The Aviator

    Achievement In Sound Editing
    Incredibles

    Achievement In Visual Effects
    Harry Potter 3

    Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
    Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor - Sideways

    Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
    Charlie Kaufman - Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind
     
  3. Holadem

    Holadem Lead Actor

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  4. Craig S

    Craig S Premium
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    Craig's Picks

    Here we go with my picks. Some notes:
    • My predicted winners are shown in red.
    • My preferred winners are shown in italics.
    • I attend an Oscar party every year. In categories with 5 nominees, we are required to choose 2 that won't win (we get 2 points for winners, 1 point for each non-winner we get correct). These are shown in strikethrough text.
    • For the pool there we are required to predict every category, even the shorts & documentaries. These predictions are included here, and are based solely on the synopses provided on the official Oscar web site.
    • Discounting the Documentary, Foreign Language & Short categories, I have seen all the major nominees except Being Julia, Maria Full Of Grace, Motorcycle Diaries, and Vera Drake.
    • I have included a brief comment after each category, hopefully to explain my odder choices. [​IMG]
    Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
    Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
    Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
    Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
    Jamie Foxx - Ray
    Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby

    Just watched the Jamie Foxx interview with Barbara Walters, and saw the GG speech I hadn't seen before. Oh. OH. It may be last minute, but I'm jumping on the Foxx bandwagon.

    Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
    Alan Alda - The Aviator
    Jamie Foxx - Collateral
    Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby
    Thomas Haden Church - Sideways
    Clive Owen - Closer

    A very tight race between Haden Church & Freeman, but I think Morgan gets his valedictory Oscar here.

    Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
    Annette Bening - Being Julia
    Catalina Sandino Morena - Maria Full Of Grace
    Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake
    Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby
    Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind

    Swank joins the multiple winners club.

    Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
    Cate Blanchett - The Aviator
    Laura Linney - Kinsey
    Virginia Madsen - Sideways
    Sophie Okenado - Hotel Rwanda
    Natalie Portman - Closer

    Very interesting 3-way race here. I'm guessing the Academy, knowing Blanchett & Portman will be back in the future, gives this one to Madsen for what will likely be the performance of her lifetime.

    Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
    The Incredibles
    Shrek 2
    Shark Tale

    Are you kidding me?? This one should be by acclamation.

    Achievement In Art Direction
    The Aviator
    Finding Neverland
    Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
    The Phantom Of The Opera
    A Very Long Engagement

    Five worthy nominees make this a very tough race to call, so I'll go with the nomination leader.

    Achievement In Cinematography
    The Aviator
    House Of Flying Daggers
    The Passion Of The Christ
    The Phantom Of The Opera
    A Very Long Engagement

    Ditto.

    Achievement In Costume Design
    The Aviator
    Finding Neverland
    Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
    Ray
    Troy

    Among these five, Lemony Snicket really stands out as the most original entry, so I think it takes home the prize here.

    Achievement In Directing
    Martin Scorsese - The Aviator
    Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
    Taylor Hackford - Ray
    Alexander Payne - Sideways
    Mike Leigh - Vera Drake

    In a tight race, Marty edges out Clint, and receives the longest ovation of the evening.

    Best Documentary Feature
    Born Into Brothels
    The Story of the Weeping Camel
    Super Size Me
    Tupac: Resurrection
    Twist Of Faith

    BiB is getting all the talk of late, so gotta go with it.

    Best Documentary Short Subject
    Autism Is A World
    The Children Of Leningradsky
    Hardwood
    Mighty Times: The Children's March
    Sister Rose's Passion

    Children & Jewish issues are always popular subjects in the documentary categories. There are three docus here about childred, so they'll split votes and SRP will take it.

    Achievement In Film Editing
    The Aviator
    Collateral
    Finding Neverland
    Million Dollar Baby
    Ray

    This one seems pretty locked for Thelma.

    Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
    As It Is In Heaven
    The Chorus
    Downfall
    The Sea Inside
    Yesterday

    The Sea Inside seems the clear winner here, although The Chorus could surprise.

    Achievement In Makeup
    Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
    The Passion Of The Christ
    The Sea Inside

    Although this is one should go to PotC, there will be enough people who would never vote to give anything to Gibson's epic to throw this to Lemony Snicket

    Achievement In Music (Original Score)
    Jan A.P. Kaczmarek - Finding Neverland
    John Williams - Harry Potter And The Prisoner Of Azkaban
    Thomas Newman - Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
    John Debney - The Passion Of The Christ
    James Newton Howard - The Village

    A very tough race to call - these are all worthy entries, but none really stands out. I'm guessing this is where the Academy will throw a bone to Finding Neverland

    Achievement In Music (Original Song)
    "Accidentally In Love" - Shrek 2
    "Al Otro Lado Del Río" - The Motorcycle Diaries
    "Believe" - The Polar Express
    "Learn To Be Lonely" - The Phantom Of The Opera
    "Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - The Chorus

    This is a strange lineup. Gotta go with the one that feels the most Oscar-friendly - the lovely ballad "Believe". At least it was actually used IN the film.

    Best Motion Picture Of The Year
    The Aviator
    Finding Neverland
    Million Dollar Baby
    Ray
    Sideways

    Although big mo seems to be with MDB, I'm going with history & Seth's formula.

    Best Animated Short Film
    Birthday Boy
    Gopher Broke
    Guard Dog
    Lorenzo
    Ryan

    Hmm, I think I'll go with the anti-war statement here.

    Best Live Action Short Film
    Everything In This Country Must
    Little Terrorist
    7:35 In The Morning
    Two Cars, One Night
    Wasp

    Who knows?? I'll go with the one with a kid in it.

    Achievement In Sound Editing
    The Incredibles
    The Polar Express
    Spider-Man 2

    This one is always hard to predict, but I think The Incredibles had the most obviously impressive work.

    Achievement In Sound Mixing
    The Aviator
    The Incredibles
    The Polar Express
    Ray
    Spider-Man 2

    The music in Ray sounded great, and I think that's what voters will remember.

    Achievement In Visual Effects
    Harry Potter And The Prisoner Of Azkaban
    I, Robot
    Spider-Man 2

    A tight race between Harry & Spidey. I think the hippogriff takes it for HP.

    Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
    Before Sunset
    Million Dollar Baby
    The Motorcycle Diaries
    Finding Neverland
    Sideways

    Another tight race. I think some minor issues in MDB (some poorly-drawn minor characters) will tilt voters to Sideways.

    Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
    The Incredibles
    Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind
    The Aviator
    Hotel Rwanda
    Vera Drake

    I think this is close to a lock. Charlie Kaufman finally wins his Oscar here.

    Final Counts

    The Aviator: 5
    Million Dollar Baby: 3
    Sideways: 2
    The Incredibles: 2
    Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events: 2
    Finding Neverland: 1
    Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind: 1
    Harry Potter & The Prisoner Of Azkaban: 1
    The Polar Express: 1
    Ray: 1
    The Sea Inside: 1

    Plus the 4 winners of the Documentary & Short categories.
     
  5. Chuck Mayer

    Chuck Mayer Lead Actor

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    Based on the book "Blink", this should be my best pass [​IMG]

    I have seen almost NONE of these films, so this is based on what I've read, or how I think things play out. None of this is who I want...I haven't seen nearly enough ot have favorites (except The Incredibles).

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Jamie Foxx - RAY

    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    Annette Bening - BEING JULIA

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
    Laura Linney - KINSEY
    Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
    Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA
    Natalie Portman - CLOSER

    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
    THE INCREDIBLES

    ART DIRECTION
    THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    THE AVIATOR
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
    (I expect The Aviator, but...)

    COSTUME DESIGN
    FINDING NEVERLAND

    DIRECTING
    THE AVIATOR

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
    BORN INTO BROTHELS

    FILM EDITING
    COLLATERAL

    MAKEUP
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

    MUSIC (SCORE)
    FINDING NEVERLAND

    MUSIC (SONG)
    "Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA

    SOUND EDITING
    THE INCREDIBLES

    SOUND MIXING
    THE INCREDIBLES

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    SPIDER-MAN 2

    WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
    SIDEWAYS

    WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
    ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

    BEST PICTURE
    THE AVIATOR
     
  6. Travis_S

    Travis_S Supporting Actor

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    Predictions (As of February 27th)

    77th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS NOMINEES

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Jamie Foxx - RAY

    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR

    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
    THE INCREDIBLES

    ART DIRECTION
    THE AVIATOR

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    THE AVIATOR

    COSTUME DESIGN
    THE AVIATOR

    DIRECTING
    THE AVIATOR

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
    SUPER SIZE ME

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
    HARDWOOD

    FILM EDITING
    THE AVIATOR

    FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
    THE SEA INSIDE

    MAKEUP
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

    MUSIC (SCORE)
    FINDING NEVERLAND

    MUSIC (SONG)
    "Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS

    BEST PICTURE
    THE AVIATOR

    SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
    BIRTHDAY BOY

    SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
    LITTLE TERRORIST

    SOUND EDITING
    SPIDER-MAN 2

    SOUND MIXING
    THE AVIATOR

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    SPIDER-MAN 2

    WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
    SIDEWAYS

    WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
    ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
     
  7. ZacharyTait

    ZacharyTait Screenwriter

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    Here are my predictions for what will win:

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Will Win: Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    Alternate: Jamie Foxx - RAY

    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Will win: Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    Alternate: Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS

    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    Will Win: Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    Alternate: Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Will win: Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
    Alternate: Natalie Portman - CLOSER

    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
    Will win: THE INCREDIBLES
    Alternate: SHREK 2

    ART DIRECTION
    Will win: THE AVIATOR
    Alternate: THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    Will win: THE AVIATOR
    Alternate: HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS

    COSTUME DESIGN
    Will Win: THE AVIATOR
    Alternate: LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS

    DIRECTING
    Will Win: Clint Eastwood for MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    Alternate: Martin Scorsese for THE AVIATOR

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
    Will Win: BORN INTO BROTHELS
    Alternate: THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL

    FILM EDITING
    Will win: MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    Alternate: THE AVIATOR

    FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
    Will Win: THE SEA INSIDE
    Alternate: DOWNFALL

    MAKEUP
    Will Win: THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
    Alternate: LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS

    MUSIC (SCORE)
    Will Win: HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
    Alternate: THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

    MUSIC (SONG)
    Will Win: "Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
    Alternate: "Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA

    BEST PICTURE
    Will Win: MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    Alternate: THE AVIATOR

    SOUND EDITING
    Will Win: THE INCREDIBLES
    Alternate: SPIDER-MAN 2

    SOUND MIXING
    Will Win: THE AVIATOR
    Alternate: SPIDER-MAN 2

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    Will win: SPIDER-MAN 2
    Alternate: HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN

    WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
    Will win: MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    Alternate: SIDEWAYS

    WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
    Will Win: ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
    Alternate:THE INCREDIBLES

    Haven't seen any and probably won't so no guess unless I should:

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
    AUTISM IS A WORLD
    THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
    HARDWOOD
    MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH
    SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

    SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
    BIRTHDAY BOY
    GOPHER BROKE
    GUARD DOG
    LORENZO
    RYAN

    SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
    EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
    LITTLE TERRORIST
    7:35 IN THE MORNING
    TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
    WASP
     
  8. Patrick Sun

    Patrick Sun Moderator
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    Here's my initial guess based on the actual noms (with M$B being my personal favorite for most of the categories):

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Jamie Foxx - RAY
    (Rooting for Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY)

    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR

    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
    THE INCREDIBLES

    ART DIRECTION
    THE AVIATOR

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

    COSTUME DESIGN
    THE AVIATOR

    DIRECTING
    MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
    BORN INTO BROTHELS

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
    AUTISM IS ANOTHER WORLD

    FILM EDITING
    MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
    THE SEA INSIDE

    MAKEUP
    LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS

    MUSIC (SCORE)
    FINDING NEVERLAND

    MUSIC (SONG)
    "BELIEVE" - THE POLAR EXPRESS

    BEST PICTURE
    MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
    RYAN

    SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
    EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST

    SOUND EDITING
    SPIDER-MAN 2

    SOUND MIXING
    THE AVIATOR

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    SPIDER-MAN 2

    WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
    SIDEWAYS

    WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
    ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
     
  9. DeeF

    DeeF Screenwriter

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    If I were choosing based on purely subjective favorites (since I haven't seen the movies), here goes:

    BEST PICTURE
    Sideways

    DIRECTING
    Sideways

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA

    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE

    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR


    I am SO glad that Kinsey got diddley.
     
  10. PaulP

    PaulP Producer

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    Some of these are educated guesses, but I had to skip Best Foreign Language Film, Best Documentary Feature/Short Subject, Best Short Film - Animated/Live Action.

    Best Motion Picture of the Year:
    Sideways

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
    Johnny Depp for Finding Neverland

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
    Kate Winslet for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
    Morgan Freeman for Million Dollar Baby

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
    Cate Blanchett for The Aviator

    Best Achievement in Directing:
    Alexander Payne for Sideways

    Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen:
    Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry, Pierre Bismuth

    Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published:
    Sideways - Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor

    Best Achievement in Cinematography:
    The Passion of the Christ - Caleb Deschanel

    Best Achievement in Editing:
    The Aviator - Thelma Schoonmaker

    Best Achievement in Art Direction:
    Un long dimanche de fiançailles - Aline Bonetto

    Best Achievement in Costume Design:
    The Aviator - Sandy Powell

    Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score:
    The Village - James Newton Howard

    Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song:
    The Phantom of the Opera - Andrew Lloyd Webber, Charles Hart ("Learn To Be Lonely")

    Best Achievement in Makeup:
    The Passion of the Christ - Keith VanderLaan, Christien Tinsley

    Best Achievement in Sound:
    The Incredibles - Randy Thom, Gary Rizzo, Doc Kane

    Best Achievement in Sound Editing:
    The Incredibles - Michael Silvers, Randy Thom

    Best Achievement in Visual Effects:
    I, Robot - John Nelson, Andy Jones, Erik Nash, Joe Letteri

    Best Animated Feature Film of the Year:
    The Incredibles - Brad Bird
     
  11. Ernest Rister

    Ernest Rister Producer

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    I never pick who I think is going to win, just who I would vote for...

    77th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS NOMINEES

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Jamie Foxx - RAY

    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Laura Linney - KINSEY

    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
    THE INCREDIBLES

    ART DIRECTION
    THE AVIATOR

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

    COSTUME DESIGN
    THE AVIATOR

    DIRECTING
    Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
    SUPER SIZE ME

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
    SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

    FILM EDITING
    THE AVIATOR

    FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
    AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
    THE CHORUS
    DOWNFALL
    THE SEA INSIDE
    YESTERDAY

    MAKEUP
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

    MUSIC (SCORE)
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

    MUSIC (SONG)
    "Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS

    BEST PICTURE
    MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
    LORENZO

    SOUND EDITING
    THE POLAR EXPRESS

    SOUND MIXING
    THE POLAR EXPRESS

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    SPIDER-MAN 2

    WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
    SIDEWAYS

    WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
    ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
     
  12. Mark Dill

    Mark Dill Stunt Coordinator

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    These are my picks for who is going to win:

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Jamie Foxx - RAY

    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Clive Owen - CLOSER

    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Natalie Portman - CLOSER

    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
    THE INCREDIBLES

    ART DIRECTION
    THE AVIATOR

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

    COSTUME DESIGN
    THE AVIATOR

    DIRECTING
    MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
    SUPER SIZE ME

    FILM EDITING
    THE AVIATOR

    FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
    THE SEA INSIDE

    MAKEUP
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

    MUSIC (SCORE)
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST

    BEST PICTURE
    THE AVIATOR

    SOUND EDITING
    THE INCREDIBLES

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN

    WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
    MILLION DOLLAR BABY

    WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
    HOTEL RWANDA
     
  13. Adam_S

    Adam_S Producer

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    Of films with three or more nods, I've not seen Ray, Hotel Rwanda, Polar Express, Vera Drake, Phantom of the Opera:

    Bold is who I think will win, Red is who I'd vote for

    BEST PICTURE
    The Aviator
    Finding Neverland
    Million Dollar Baby
    Ray
    Sideways

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
    Taylor Hackford - Ray
    Mike Leigh - Vera Drake
    Alexander Payne - Sideways
    Martin Scorcese - The Aviator

    BEST ACTOR
    Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
    Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
    Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
    Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby (he didn't win for Unforgiven but got Picture and Director then)
    Jamie Foxx - Ray

    BEST ACTRESS
    Annette Bening - Being Julia
    Catalina Sandeno Moreno - Maria Full of Grace
    Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake
    Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby
    Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Alan Alda - The Aviator
    Thomas Haden Church - Sideways
    Jamie Foxx - Collateral
    Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby
    Clive Owen - Closer

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Cate Blanchett - The Aviator
    Laura Linney - Kinsey
    Virginia Madsen - Sideways
    Sophie Okonedo - Hotel Rwanda
    Natalie Portman - Closer

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    The Aviator
    Eternal Sunshine of The Spotless Mind
    Hotel Rwanda
    The Incredibles
    Vera Drake

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Before Sunset
    Finding Neverland
    Million Dollar Baby
    The Motorcycle Diaries
    Sideways

    FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
    As It Is
    The Chorus
    Downfall
    The Sea Inside
    Yesterday

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
    Born Into Brothels
    The Story of the Weeping Camel
    Super Size Me
    Tupac: Resurrection
    Twist of Faith

    ANIMATED FILM
    The Incredibles
    Shark Tale
    Shrek 2

    ART DIRECTION
    The Aviator
    Finding Neverland
    Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
    The Phantom of the Opera
    A Very Long Engagement

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    The Aviator
    House of Flying Daggers
    The Passion of the Christ
    The Phantom of the Opera
    A Very Long Engagement

    COSTUME DESIGN
    The Aviator
    Finding Neverland
    Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
    Ray
    Troy

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
    Autism is a World
    The Children of Leningradsky
    Hardwood
    Mighty Times: The Children's March
    Sister Rose's Passion

    FILM EDITING
    The Aviator
    Collateral
    Finding Neverland
    Million Dollar Baby
    Ray

    MAKEUP
    Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
    The Passion of the Christ
    The Sea Inside

    MUSIC (SCORE)
    Finding Neverland
    Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban
    Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
    The Passion of the Christ
    The Village

    MUSIC (SONG)
    "Accidentally In Love" - Shrek 2
    "Al Otro Lado Del Río" - The Motorcycle Diaries
    "Believe" - The Polar Express
    "Learn To Be Lonely" - The Phantom of the Opera
    "Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - The Chorus

    SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
    Birthday Boy
    Gopher Broke
    Guard Dog
    Lorenzo
    Ryan

    SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
    Everything in this Country Must
    Little Terrorist
    7:35 in the Morning
    Two Cars, One Night
    Wasp

    SOUND EDITING
    The Incredibles
    The Polar Express
    Spider-Man 2

    SOUND MIXING
    The Aviator
    The Incredibles
    The Polar Express
    Ray
    Spider-Man 2

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban
    I, Robot
    Spider-Man 2
     
  14. Steve Christou

    Steve Christou Long Member

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    BEST PICTURE
    The Aviator

    DIRECTING
    Martin Scorsese - The Aviator

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Jamie Foxx - Ray

    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Clive Owen - Closer

    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Natalie Portman - Closer

    WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
    Million Dollar Baby

    WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
    The Aviator

    ART DIRECTION
    The Aviator

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    The Aviator

    COSTUME DESIGN
    The Aviator

    FILM EDITING
    The Aviator

    MAKEUP
    The Passion of the Christ

    MUSIC SCORE
    The Passion of the Christ

    SOUND EDITING
    Spider-Man 2

    SOUND MIXING
    The Aviator

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    I, Robot

    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
    The Incredibles
     
  15. Artur Meinild

    Artur Meinild Screenwriter

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    Seth, Aviator is NOT nominated in Makeup, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.
     
  16. ZacharyTait

    ZacharyTait Screenwriter

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    I changed three of my predictions after seeing Million Dollar Baby:

    Changed Best Actor to Clint Eastwood
    Changed Best Supporting Actor to Morgan Freeman
    Changed Best Score to Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban.
     
  17. Dana Fillhart

    Dana Fillhart Supporting Actor

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    Finally, I have a breather from work and other things making my life so hectic, I can catch up with my Oscar stuff and the Top 10 thread.

    Given the dearth of films in my 2004 Film List, I'm going to have to defer many of my guesses this year to the general consensus. I've actually only seen 2 of the 5 contenders - pretty pathetic, but I do hope to catch Ray tonight to confirm Jamie Foxx's performance. If I'm lucky I'll get to see The Aviator, but I know I won't get to see Finding Neverland.

    Okay, here are my predictions (list taken directly from Oscars.com) - expected winners in red, my wish in italics (mine only if applicable; given how few films I've seen, there aren't a lot I can comfortably claim):

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Don Cheadle - HOTEL RWANDA
    Johnny Depp - FINDING NEVERLAND
    Leonardo DiCaprio - THE AVIATOR
    Clint Eastwood - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    Jamie Foxx - RAY


    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Alan Alda - THE AVIATOR
    Thomas Haden Church - SIDEWAYS
    Jamie Foxx - COLLATERAL
    Morgan Freeman - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    Clive Owen - CLOSER

    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    Annette Bening - BEING JULIA
    Catalina Sandino Moreno - MARIA FULL OF GRACE
    Imelda Staunton - VERA DRAKE
    Hilary Swank - MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    Kate Winslet - ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Cate Blanchett - THE AVIATOR
    Laura Linney - KINSEY
    Virginia Madsen - SIDEWAYS
    Sophie Okonedo - HOTEL RWANDA (given what I heard, how could you not?)
    Natalie Portman - CLOSER

    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
    THE INCREDIBLES
    SHARK TALE
    SHREK 2

    ART DIRECTION
    THE AVIATOR
    FINDING NEVERLAND
    LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS (I admit a certain guilty desire to see this win)
    THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
    A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    THE AVIATOR
    HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS - by far this should win, but I predict it will be overlooked
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
    THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
    A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT

    COSTUME DESIGN
    THE AVIATOR
    FINDING NEVERLAND
    LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS - pretty good, but I'm betting FN did better
    RAY
    TROY

    DIRECTING
    THE AVIATOR - It's gonna be a Scorsese night
    MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    RAY
    SIDEWAYS
    VERA DRAKE

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
    BORN INTO BROTHELS (If I hadn't heard so many iffy reviews, the mere subject matter would make this one a lock)
    THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL
    SUPER SIZE ME
    TUPAC: RESURRECTION
    TWIST OF FAITH

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
    AUTISM IS A WORLD
    THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
    HARDWOOD
    MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH
    SISTER ROSE'S PASSION

    FILM EDITING
    THE AVIATOR
    COLLATERAL
    FINDING NEVERLAND
    MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    RAY

    FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
    AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
    THE CHORUS
    DOWNFALL
    THE SEA INSIDE
    YESTERDAY

    MAKEUP
    LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
    THE SEA INSIDE

    MUSIC (SCORE)
    FINDING NEVERLAND
    HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
    LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
    THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST
    THE VILLAGE (huh?!)

    MUSIC (SONG)
    "Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
    "Al Otro Lado Del Río" - THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
    "Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS
    "Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA (I think the Academy will want to give this darling-subject at least one reward)
    "Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - THE CHORUS

    BEST PICTURE
    THE AVIATOR (Like I said, it's a Scorsese night)
    FINDING NEVERLAND
    MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    RAY
    SIDEWAYS
    (I have only seen 2 of them and wasn't impressed enough with either to feel it deserves BP above the others; my friend has seen Ray and I'll side with him on not thinking it should get BP. That leaves FN and Aviator - I'll pass on giving my wish.)

    SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
    BIRTHDAY BOY
    GOPHER BROKE
    GUARD DOG
    LORENZO
    RYAN

    SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
    EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
    LITTLE TERRORIST
    7:35 IN THE MORNING
    TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
    WASP

    SOUND EDITING
    THE INCREDIBLES
    THE POLAR EXPRESS
    SPIDER-MAN 2

    SOUND MIXING
    THE AVIATOR
    THE INCREDIBLES
    THE POLAR EXPRESS - If you saw this in the theater I saw this in, you would give this the award right here and now. Phenomenal use of sound.
    RAY
    SPIDER-MAN 2

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN
    I, ROBOT
    SPIDER-MAN 2

    WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
    BEFORE SUNSET
    FINDING NEVERLAND
    MILLION DOLLAR BABY
    THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
    SIDEWAYS

    WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
    THE AVIATOR - the only category Scorsese is gonna lose, and it won't even be close.
    ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
    HOTEL RWANDA
    THE INCREDIBLES
    VERA DRAKE
     
  18. scottLarson

    scottLarson Agent

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    Pick 1: who is going to win
    pick 2:who I want to win

    Picture: "The Aviator," "Finding Neverland," "Million Dollar Baby," "Ray," "Sideways."
    pick 1:Million Dollar Baby
    pick 2The Aviator

    Director: Martin Scorsese, "The Aviator"; Clint Eastwood (news), "Million Dollar Baby"; Taylor Hackford, "Ray"; Alexander Payne, "Sideways"; Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake."
    Pick 1:Clint Eastwood
    Pick 2:Martin Scorsese

    Actor: Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"; Johnny Depp (news), "Finding Neverland"; Leonardo DiCaprio (news), "The Aviator"; Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"; Jamie Foxx (news), "Ray."
    Pick 1:Jamie Foxx
    Pick 2: Jamie Foxx

    Actress: Annette Bening (news), "Being Julia"; Catalina Sandino Moreno, "Maria Full of Grace"; Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"; Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"; Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind."
    Pick 1:Hilary Swank
    Pick 2:Hilary Swank

    Supporting actor: Alan Alda (news), "The Aviator"; Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"; Morgan Freeman (news), "Million Dollar Baby"; Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways"; Clive Owen, "Closer."
    Pick 1:Morgan Freeman
    Pick 2:Jamie Fox

    Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (news), "The Aviator"; Laura Linney, "Kinsey"; Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"; Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda"; Natalie Portman, "Closer."
    Pick 1:Laura Linny
    Pick 2:Cate Blanchett

    Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy (news) and Ethan Hawke (news), "Before Sunset"; David Magee, "Finding Neverland"; Paul Haggis, "Million Dollar Baby"; Jose Rivera, "The Motorcycle Diaries"; Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, "Sideways."
    Pick 1.Million Dollar Baby
    Pick 2.Sideways


    Writing (Original Screenplay): John Logan, "The Aviator"; Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry and Pierre Bismuth, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"; Brad Bird, "The Incredibles"; Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake."
    Pick 1.Aviator
    Pick 2.Incredibles

    Foreign Film: "As It Is In Heaven" (Sweden), "The Chorus (Les Choristes)" (France), "Downfall" (Germany), "The Sea Inside" (Spain), "Yesterday" (South Africa).
    Pick 1: As it is in Heaven
    Pick 2: Yesterday


    Animated Feature Film: "The Incredibles," "Shark Tale," "Shrek 2." Animated Short Film: "Birthday Boy," "Gopher Broke," "Guard Dog," "Lorenzo," "Ryan."
    Pick 1:Incredibles
    Pick 2:Incredibles

    Live Action Short Film: "Everything in This Country Must," "Little Terrorist," "7:35 in the Morning (7:35 de la Manana)," "Two Cars, One Night," and "Wasp."
    Pick 1:Little terrorist
    Pick 2:Two Cars,One Night, and wasp

    Documentary: "Born Into Brothels," "The Story of the Weeping Camel," "Super Size Me," "Tupac: Resurrection," "Twist of Faith."
    Pick 1: Super Size Me
    Pick 2:Super Size Me

    Documentary Short Subject: "Autism Is a World," "The Children of Leningradsky," "Hardwood," "Mighty Times: The Children's March," "Sister Rose's Passion."
    1.Autism of the world
    2.Autism of the world

    Art Direction: "The Aviator," "Finding Neverland," "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events," "The Phantom of the Opera," "A Very Long Engagement."
    1.Aviator
    2.Aviator

    Cinematography: "The Aviator," "House of Flying Daggers," "The Passion of the Christ," "The Phantom of the Opera," "A Very Long Engagement."
    1.Passion of the Christ
    2.Passion of the Christ

    Film Editing: "The Aviator," "Collateral," "Finding Neverland," "Million Dollar Baby," "Ray."
    1.Collateral
    2.Aviator




    Costume Design: "The Aviator," "Finding Neverland," "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events," "Ray," "Troy."
    1.Ray
    2.The Aviator
    Makeup: "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events," "The Passion of the Christ," "The Sea Inside."
    1.The Passion of the Christ
    2.The Passion of the Christ
    Original Score: "Finding Neverland," "Harry Potter (news - web sites) and the Prisoner of Azkaban," "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events," "The Passion of the Christ," "The Village."
    1.Harry Potter
    2.Passion of the Christ
    Original Song: "Accidentally In Love" from "Shrek 2," "Al Otro Lado Del Rio" from "The Motorcycle Diaries," "Believe" from "The Polar Express," "Learn To Be Lonely" from "The Phantom of the Opera," "Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" from "The Chorus (Les Choristes)."
    1.Shrek 2
    2.Shrek 2
    Sound Editing: "The Incredibles," "The Polar Express," "Spider-Man 2."
    1.Spider-man 2
    2.Spider-man 2

    Sound Mixing: "The Aviator," "The Incredibles," "The Polar Express," "Ray," "Spider-Man 2."
    pick 1: The Aviator
    pick 2: Spider-man 2

    Visual Effects: "Harry Potter and the Prince of Azkaban," "I, Robot," "Spider-Man 2."
    pick 1:I,robot
    pick 2:Spider-man 2
    ___
     
  19. Jason Hughes

    Jason Hughes Supporting Actor

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    Best Picture
    Will win: Million Dollar Baby
    Should win: The Aviator

    Best Actress
    Will win: Hilary Swank
    Should win: Hilary Swank

    Best Director (this will be CLOSE):
    Will win: Martin Scorsese
    Should win: Martin Scorsese

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Will win: Clive Owen (next up James Bond)
    Should win: Clive Owen

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Will win: Virginia Madsen (probably the big surprise, you know they want to give Sideways more than just best screenplay (which is a lock))
    Should win: Virginia Madsen

    Best Actor: Irellevant discussion as Jamie Foxxxxxxxxxxxxx has already won
    Should win: Eastwood by a mile
     

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